Population Change in the United States and Texas: Implications … · 2011-08-19 · Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population 18 and Older by Race/Ethnicity

Population Change in the United States and Texas: Implications for Education, the Labor Force and Economic

Development

Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Steve H. Murdock, Director

Hobby Center for the Study of Texas

and

Allyn and Gladys Cline Professor of Sociology

Rice University

National Conference of State Legislators

San Antonio, Texas

August 7, 2011

Major Topics of the Presentation__________________________

• Population Change

• Increasing Racial/Ethnic Diversity

• Aging of the Population

• Implications of Demographic Change for Education, The Labor Force and Economic Development


Total Population and Percent Population Change

in Texas and the United States, 1850-2010

Total Population Percent Change

Year Texas U.S. Texas U.S.

1850 212,592 23,191,876 --- ---

1860 604,215 31,443,321 184.2 35.6

1870 818,579 39,818,449 35.5 26.6

1880 1,591,749 50,155,783 94.5 26.0

1890 2,235,527 62,947,714 40.4 25.5

1900 3,048,710 75,994,575 36.4 20.7

1910 3,896,542 91,972,266 27.8 21.0

1920 4,663,228 105,710,620 19.7 14.9

1930 5,824,715 122,775,046 24.9 16.1

1940 6,414,824 131,669,275 10.1 7.2

1950 7,711,194 150,697,361 20.2 14.5

1960 9,579,677 179,323,175 24.2 19.0

1970 11,196,730 203,302,031 16.9 13.4

1980 14,229,191 226,545,805 27.1 11.4

1990 16,986,510 248,709,873 19.4 9.8

2000 20,851,820 281,421,906 22.8 13.2

2010 25,145,561 308,745,538 20.6 9.7

Source: Derived from the U.S. Census Bureau decennial census April 1 of reported year.


Components of Change, U.S. and Texas, 2000-2009

United States Texas

Component Numeric Change

Percent of Total

ChangeNumeric Change

Percent of Total

Change

Total Change 25,584,644 100.0 3,930,482 100.0

Natural Increase 15,875,579 62.1 2,124,124 54.0

Net Domestic Migration ---- --- 848,702 21.6

Net International Migration 9,709,065 37.9 957,656 24.4

Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census.

Change 2000-2010

State

2000

Population

2010

Population Numeric Percent

United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7

California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0

Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6

New York 18,976,457 19,378,102 401,645 2.1

Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6

Illinois 12,419,293 12,830,632 411,339 3.3

Pennsylvania 12,281,054 12,702,379 421,325 3.4

Ohio 11,353,140 11,536,504 183,364 1.6

Michigan 9,938,444 9,883,640 -54,804 -0.6

Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5

Population values as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Ten Largest States in the United States

by Population Size in 2010


Change 2000-2010

State

2000

Population

2010


United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7

Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6

California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0

Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6

Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5

Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6

Virginia 7,078,515 8,001,024 922,509 13.0

Washington 5,894,121 6,724,540 830,419 14.1

Colorado 4,301,261 5,029,196 727,935 16.9

Nevada 1,998,257 2,700,551 702,294 35.1

Ten States in the United States with the

Largest Numeric Population Increase 2000-2010




Change 2000-2010

State

2000

Population

2010


United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7

Nevada 1,998,257 2,700,551 702,294 35.1

Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6

Utah 2,233,169 2,763,885 530,716 23.8

Idaho 1,293,953 1,567,582 273,629 21.1

Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5

Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3

Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6

Colorado 4,301,261 5,029,196 727,935 16.9

South Carolina 4,012,012 4,625,364 613,352 15.3

Ten States in the United States with the

Largest Percentage Population Increase 2000-2010




Regional Population Change as a

Proportion of U.S. Population Change, 2000-2010


Population of the United States by Regions, 1910-2010




Population in Thousands (Thousands)

United States/

Regions 1900 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

United States 76,212 151,326 179,323 203,302 226,546 248,710 281,422 308,746

Regions

Northeast 27.6 26.1 24.9 24.1 21.7 20.4 19.0 17.9

Midwest 34.5 29.4 28.8 27.9 25.9 24.0 22.9 21.7

South 32.2 31.2 30.7 30.9 33.3 34.4 35.6 37.1

West 5.7 13.3 15.6 17.1 19.1 21.2 22.5 23.3

Place

Population Change

2000 2010 Number Percent

New York , NY 8,008,278 8,175,133 166,855 2.1

Los Angeles , CA 3,694,820 3,792,621 97,801 2.6

Chicago , IL 2,896,016 2,695,598 -200,418 -6.9

Houston , TX 1,953,631 2,099,451 145,820 7.5

Philadelphia , PA 1,517,550 1,526,006 8,456 0.6

Phoenix , AZ 1,321,045 1,445,632 124,587 9.4

San Antonio , TX 1,144,646 1,327,407 182,761 16.0

San Diego , CA 1,223,400 1,307,402 84,002 6.9

Dallas , TX 1,188,580 1,197,816 9,236 0.8

San Jose , CA 894,943 945,942 50,999 5.7

Source: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010, P.L. 94-171.

Population 2000 and 2010 and Population Change 2000-2010 for

the Ten Most Populous Incorporated Places in the United States

Change

Percent of

Population

Race/

Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric Percent 2000 2010

NH White (Anglo) 10,933,313 11,397,345 464,032 4.2 52.4 45.3

Hispanic 6,669,666 9,460,921 2,791,255 41.8 32.0 37.6

NH Black 2,364,255 2,886,825 522,570 22.1 11.3 11.5

NH American Indian 68,859 80,586 11,727 17.0 0.3 0.3

NH Asian 554,445 948,426 393,981 71.1 2.7 3.8

NH Hawaiian/Pac. Isldr. 10,757 17,920 7,163 66.6 0.1 0.1

NH Some Other Race 19,958 33,980 14,022 70.3 0.1 0.1

NH Two or More Races 230,567 319,558 88,991 38.6 1.1 1.3

Total 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6 100.0 100.0

________

Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171.

*Hispanic includes Hispanic persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories

shown here are non-Hispanic (non-Hispanic White[Anglo], non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic

American Indian, non-Hispanic Asian, non-Hispanic Hawaiian/Pacific Islander,

non-Hispanic Some Other Race, non-Hispanic Two or More Races).

Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the State of Texas, 2000 and 2010

Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population Age 18+ Years of Age by Race/Ethnicity for Texas, 2000 and 2010

Change

Percent of

Population

Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric Percent 2000 2010

NH Whites (Anglo) 8,426,166 9,074,684 648,518 7.70 56.31 49.64

Hispanic (All Races) 4,282,901 6,143,144 1,860,243 43.43 28.62 33.61

NH Black 1,631,448 2,076,282 444,834 27.27 10.90 11.36

NH Asian 415,219 716,968 301,749 72.67 2.77 3.92

NH "Other" Races 70,612 95,973 25,361 33.05 0.47 0.53


State of Texas 14,965,061 18,279,737 3,314,676 22.15 100.00 100.00

Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171

* “Other Race” is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and “Some Other Race”

as per the Census 2000 and Census 2010. Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here

are non-Hispanic (e.g., non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, etc.)

Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population Less than 18 Years of Age by Race/Ethnicity for Texas, 2000 and 2010

Change

Percent of

Population

Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric Percent 2000 2010

NH Whites (Anglo) 2,507,147 2,322,661 -184,486 -7.36 42.59 33.83

Hispanic (All Races) 2,386,765 3,317,777 931,012 39.01 40.54 48.32

NH Black 732,807 810,543 77,736 10.61 12.45 11.81

NH Asian 139,226 231,458 92,232 66.25 2.37 3.37

NH "Other" Races 28,962 36,513 7,551 33.05 0.49 0.53


State of Texas 5,886,759 6,865,824 979,065 16.63 100.00 100.00

Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171

* “Other Race” is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and “Some Other Race” as per the

Census 2000 and Census 2010. Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (e.g., non-

Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, etc.)

Population Population Change

Percent of Total

Population

Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric Percent

Percent

of Total

Change 2000 2010

NH White 194,552,774 196,817,552 2,264,778 1.2 8.3 69.1 63.7

Hispanic (All Races) 35,295,818 50,477,594 15,181,776 43.0 55.6 12.5 16.3

NH Black 33,947,837 37,685,848 3,738,011 11.0 13.7 12.1 12.2

NH Asian 9,123,169 14,455,124 5,331,955 58.4 19.5 3.2 4.7

NH Other 8,502,308 9,309,420 807,112 9.5 2.9 3.1 3.1

Total 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7 100.0 100.0 100.0

*Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races.

Source: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010, P.L. 94-171

Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University http://HobbyCenter.Rice.edu

Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 2000 and 2010


Percent of Total

Population


Percent

of Total

Change 2000 2010

NH White 150,551,787 157,100,990 6,549,203 4.4 28.8 71.1 67.0


NH Black 23,341,446 27,323,665 3,982,219 17.1 17.5 11.0 11.6

NH Asian 7,705,208 11,288,995 3,583,787 46.5 15.8 3.6 4.8

NH Other 4,601,279 5,503,718 902,439 19.6 4.0 2.2 2.4

Total 211,844,603 234,564,071 22,719,468 10.7 100.0 100.0 100.0

*Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other

includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or

Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races.



Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population 18

and Older by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 2000 and 2010


Percent of Total

Population


Percent

of Total

Change 2000 2010

NH White 44,000,987 39,716,562 -4,284,425 -9.7 -93.1 63.2 53.5


NH Black 10,606,391 10,362,183 -244,208 -2.3 -5.3 15.3 14.0

NH Asian 1,417,961 3,166,129 1,748,168 123.3 38.0 2.0 4.3

NH Other 3,901,029 3,805,702 -95,327 -2.4 -2.1 5.6 5.1

Total 69,577,303 74,181,467 4,604,164 6.6 100.0 100.0 100.0

*Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other

includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or

Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races.



Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population Under

Age 18 by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 2000 and 2010

*Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying

themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic

and a combination of two or more races.



Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total

Population by Race/Ethnicity for Metropolitan Central City

Counties in the United States, 2000 and 2010

Population Population ChangePercent of Total

Population

Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric PercentPercent of

Total Chg2000 2010

NH White 139,254,963 139,518,137 263,174 0.2 1.2 65.0 59.0


NH Black 28,330,045 31,671,771 3,341,726 11.8 15.2 13.2 13.4

NH Asian 9,531,410 13,577,516 4,046,106 42.5 18.3 4.4 5.7

NH Other 5,563,357 6,855,391 1,292,034 23.2 5.9 2.6 2.9

Total 214,235,951 236,276,605 22,040,654 10.3 100.0 100.0 100.0







Population by Race/Ethnicity for Metropolitan Suburban



Population


Total Chg2000 2010

NH White 15,112,253 16,655,521 1,543,268 10.2 50.1 82.4 77.7

Hispanic (All Races) 1,117,114 2,003,979 886,865 79.4 28.8 6.1 9.4

NH Black 1,505,667 1,797,953 292,286 19.4 9.5 8.2 8.4

NH Asian 240,705 420,072 179,367 74.5 5.8 1.3 2.0

NH Other 368,250 547,655 179,405 48.7 5.8 2.0 2.6

Total 18,343,989 21,425,180 3,081,191 16.8 100.0 100.0 100.0


themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-

Hispanic and a combination of two or more races.




Population by Race/Ethnicity for Non-Metropolitan Counties

in the United States, 2000 and 2010


Population


Total Chg2000 2010

NH White 40,185,558 40,643,894 458,336 1.1 20.8 82.3 79.6


NH Black 4,112,125 4,216,124 103,999 2.5 4.7 8.4 8.3

NH Asian 351,054 467,536 116,482 33.2 5.3 0.7 0.9

NH Other 1,560,701 1,896,374 335,673 21.5 15.3 3.2 3.7

Total 48,841,966 51,043,753 2,201,787 4.5 100.0 100.0 100.0







Population by Race/Ethnicity for Non-Metropolitan

Adjacent Counties in the United States, 2000 and 2010


Population


Total Chg2000 2010

NH White 26,364,704 26,945,846 581,142 2.2 33.2 82.4 79.8

Hispanic (All Races) 1,661,569 2,453,912 792,343 47.7 45.3 5.2 7.3

NH Black 2,900,227 2,992,634 92,407 3.2 5.3 9.1 8.9

NH Asian 163,352 239,922 76,570 46.9 4.4 0.5 0.7

NH Other 908,120 1,114,221 206,101 22.7 11.8 2.8 3.3

Total 31,997,972 33,746,535 1,748,563 5.5 100.0 100.0 100.0






Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the

Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for Non-Metropolitan

Non-Adjacent Counties in the United States, 2000 and 2010


Population


Total Chg2000 2010

NH White 13,820,854 13,698,048 -122,806 -0.9 -27.1 82.1 79.2

Hispanic (All Races) 970,959 1,365,913 394,954 40.7 87.1 5.8 7.9

NH Black 1,211,898 1,223,490 11,592 1.0 2.6 7.2 7.1

NH Asian 187,702 227,614 39,912 21.3 8.8 1.1 1.3

NH Other 652,581 782,153 129,572 19.9 28.6 3.9 4.5

Total 16,843,994 17,297,218 453,224 2.7 100.0 100.0 100.0






Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population

Under Age 18 by Race/Ethnicity for Metropolitan Central City



Population


Total Chg2000 2010

NH White 30,849,683 27,506,006 -3,343,677 -10.8 -172.4 55.9 48.2


NH Black 8,908,601 8,775,212 -133,389 -1.5 -6.9 16.2 15.4

NH Asian 2,275,874 2,973,879 698,005 30.7 36.0 4.1 5.2

NH Other 2,144,258 2,833,831 689,573 32.2 35.6 3.9 5.0

Total 55,151,139 57,090,540 1,939,401 3.5 100.0 100.0 100.0







Under Age 18 by Race/Ethnicity for Metropolitan Suburban

Counties In the United States, 2000 and 2010


Population


Total Chg2000 2010

NH White 3,777,831 3,750,909 -26,922 -0.7 -5.8 78.0 70.7

Hispanic (All Races) 406,567 731,989 325,422 80.0 70.5 8.4 13.8

NH Black 450,858 481,080 30,222 6.7 6.5 9.3 9.1

NH Asian 59,990 101,098 41,108 68.5 8.9 1.2 1.9

NH Other 145,255 237,254 91,999 63.3 19.9 3.0 4.5

Total 4,840,501 5,302,330 461,829 9.5 100.0 100.0 100.0







Under Age 18 by Race/Ethnicity for Non-Metropolitan Counties

in the United States, 2000 and 2010


Population


Total Chg2000 2010

NH White 9,399,573 8,459,647 -939,926 -10.0 -183.1 76.4 71.8

Hispanic (All Races) 962,969 1,397,290 434,321 45.1 84.6 7.8 11.9

NH Black 1,250,805 1,105,891 -144,914 -11.6 28.2 10.2 9.4

NH Asian 84,410 101,152 16,742 19.8 3.3 0.7 0.9

NH Other 604,415 724,617 120,202 19.9 23.4 4.9 6.1

Total 12,302,172 11,788,597 -513,575 -4.2 100.0 100.0 100.0







Under Age 18 by Race/Ethnicity for Non-Metropolitan

Adjacent Counties in the United States, 2000 and 2010


Population


Total Chg2000 2010

NH White 6,188,210 5,637,421 -550,789 -8.9 53.4 76.8 72.3

Hispanic (All Races) 602,847 898,757 295,910 49.1 28.7 7.5 11.5

NH Black 870,789 779,407 -91,382 -10.5 8.9 10.8 10.0

NH Asian 44,086 56,865 12,779 29.0 1.2 0.5 0.7

NH Other 348,016 428,444 80,428 23.1 7.8 4.3 5.5

Total 8,053,948 7,800,894 -253,054 -3.1 100.0 100.0 100.0







Under Age 18 by Race/Ethnicity for Non-Metropolitan

Non-Adjacent Counties in the United States, 2000 and 2010


Population


Total Chg2000 2010

NH White 3,211,363 2,822,226 -389,137 -12.1 149.4 75.6 70.8

Hispanic (All Races) 360,122 498,533 138,411 38.4 -53.1 8.5 12.5

NH Black 380,016 326,484 -53,532 -14.1 20.5 8.9 8.2

NH Asian 40,324 44,287 3,963 9.8 -1.5 0.9 1.1

NH Other 256,399 296,173 39,774 15.5 -15.3 6.0 7.4

Total 4,248,224 3,987,703 -260,521 -6.1 100.0 100.0 100.0

Percent of Texas Population by Age Groupand Ethnicity, 2000

39.541.6

45.0 45.043.1

44.4

47.8

53.0

57.260.2

63.566.4 67.1

72.6

44.041.3

38.0 38.440.5

38.6

35.3

30.5

26.724.2

22.420.6 20.3

16.7

< 5

year

s

5 to

9 y

ears

10 to

14

year

s

15 to

19

year

s

20 to

24

year

s

25 to

29

year

s

30 to

34

year

s

35 to

39

year

s

40 to

44

year

s

45 to

49

year

s

50 to

54

year

s

55 to

59

year

s

60 to

64

year

s

65 +

yea

rs

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0Percent

Anglo Hispanic


Percent of Texas Population by Age Groupand Ethnicity, 2040*

* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

17.719.3 19.9 20.3 19.8 19.3 19.4 20.5 20.6

21.9

25.3 26.5 27.2

39.8

69.967.8

66.5 65.5 66.0 66.8 66.464.3

62.660.6

56.755.2

52.3

37.1

< 5

year

s

5 to

9 y

ears

10 to

14

year

s

15 to

19

year

s

20 to

24

year

s

25 to

29

year

s

30 to

34

year

s

35 to

39

year

s

40 to

44

year

s

45 to

49

year

s

50 to

54

year

s

55 to

59

year

s

60 to

64

year

s

65 +

yea

rs

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0Percent

Anglo Hispanic


Percent of United States Population

by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2000


Percent of United States Population

by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2050


POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS


Total and Percent of the Texas Population in Poverty and Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, 1999 and 2009

1999 2009

Population

in Poverty %

Median

Household

Income*

Population

in Poverty %

Median

Household

Income

Anglo 826,459 7.8 $60,839 1,010,170 9.0 $59,836

Hispanic 1,658,434 25.4 $38,536 2,364,407 26.4 $35,628

Black 525,082 23.4 $37,803 630,479 23.1 $35,438

Asian 65,048 11.9 $64,576 105,186 12.1 $63,692

Other 42,586 13.9 NA 40,000 11.9 NA

Total 3,117,609 15.4 $51,506 4,150,242 17.2 $50,043

*In 2009 Dollars

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and American Community Survey, 2009

Total and Percent of the United States Population in Poverty and Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, 1999 and 2009

1999 2009

Population

in Poverty %

Median

Household

Income*

Population

in Poverty %

Median

Household

Income

Anglo 15,414,119 8.1 $58,523 19,462,966 10.0 $54,671

Hispanic 7,797,874 22.6 $43,442 11,130,896 23.5 $39,923

Black 8,146,146 24.9 $37,956 9,407,955 25.8 $33,463

Asian 1,257,237 12.6 $66,961 1,539,226 11.4 $68,780

Other 1,284,436 18.5 NA 1,327,120 18.4 NA

Total 33,899,812 12.4 $54,172 42,868,163 14.3 $50,221

*In 2009 Dollars

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and American Community Survey, 2009


Educational Attainment for the Texas

Population Age 25 and Older

by Race/Ethnicity, 2009

Race

Ethnicity

Population

Age 25 and

Older

Less than

high

school

High

school

diploma

Some

college or

associates

degree

Bachelor

or more

Non-Hispanic White 8,026,049 8.3 25.3 32.5 33.9

Black 1,705,709 15.0 30.4 36.5 18.1

Hispanic* 4,876,517 42.5 25.2 21.4 10.9

Asian 580,159 14.2 15.4 17.2 53.2

Total 15,361,557 20.1 25.4 28.9 25.5

________

Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, 2009.

*Includes Hispanic persons of all races.

Educational Attainment for the United States

Population Age 25 and Older

by Race/Ethnicity, 2009

Race

Ethnicity

Population

Age 25 and

Older

Less

than high

school

High

school

diploma

Some

college or

associates

degree

Bachelor

or more

Non-Hispanic White 139,962,199 9.6 29.3 30.0 31.1

Black 22,975,410 18.6 31.6 32.2 17.6

Hispanic* 26,106,587 39.1 26.2 22.1 12.6

Asian 9,404,493 14.7 16.0 19.6 49.7

Total 201,952,383 14.7 28.5 28.9 27.9

________

Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, 2009.

*Includes Hispanic persons of all races.

Average (Mean) SAT Scores for College Bound Seniors in the United States in 2001 by Selected

Characteristics

SAT Score

Mean MeanCharacteristic Verbal Math

All Students 506 514(N = 1,276,320)

Race/Ethnicity:American Indian 481 479African American or Black 433 426Hispanic: Mexican American 451 458 Puerto Rican 457 451 Other Hispanic 460 465White 529 531Asian American or Pacific Islander 501 566

Household Income: < $10,000 421 443 $10,000 - 20,000 442 456 $20,000 - 30,000 468 474 $30,000 - 40,000 487 489 $40,000 - 50,000 501 503 $50,000 - 60,000 509 512 $60,000 - 70,000 516 519 $70,000 - 80,000 522 527 $80,000 - 100,000 534 540

> $100,000 557 569

SAT Score

Mean MeanCharacteristic Verbal Math

All Students 506 514(N = 1,276,320)

Race/Ethnicity:American Indian 481 479

Household Income: < $10,000 421 443

> $100,000 557 569


PROJECTIONS


Projections of the U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050

White alone Black alone Asian aloneAll other

races

2000 195,771 34,414 10,436 5,909 35,629 282,158

2010 200,853 37,985 14,083 7,586 49,726 310,233

2020 205,255 41,847 18,308 9,612 66,365 341,387

2030 207,217 45,461 22,991 11,904 85,931 373,504

2040 206,065 48,780 28,064 14,523 108,223 405,655

2050 203,347 51,949 33,418 17,503 132,792 439,010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections

Year

(Resident population as of July 1. Numbers in thousands)

Non-HispanicHispanic

(any race)Total


Numeric Change in the Projected U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050 (in millions)

7.6

17.523.0

11.6

97.2

156.9

Non-Hispanic

White alone

Non-Hispanic

Black alone

Non-Hispanic

Asian alone

Non-Hispanic all

other races

Hispanic (any

race)

Total



Projected Change in the U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050

Non-Hispanic White

alone

5%

Non-Hispanic Black

alone

11%

Non-Hispanic Asian

alone

15%

Non-Hispanic Other

7%

Hispanic

62%


Projected Age Distribution of the U.S. Population:

2000 to 2050

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Under 5 years 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.4

5 to 19 years 21.7 20.3 19.9 19.7 19.4 19.3

20 to 44 years 36.9 33.8 32.7 32.0 31.5 31.7

45 to 64 years 22.1 26.1 24.7 22.6 22.7 22.4

65 to 84 years 10.9 11.1 14.1 17.0 16.5 15.8

85 years and over 1.5 1.9 1.9 2.3 3.5 4.3

Age Group(Percent of total resident population as of July 1)



Percent Race and Hispanic Origin Distribution of the

U.S. Population by Selected Age Groups: 2000

Non-Hispanic

White alone

Non-Hispanic

Black alone

Non-Hispanic

Asian alone

Non-Hispanic

all other races

Hispanic

(any race)Total

Total 69.4 12.2 3.7 2.1 12.6 100.0

Under 5 years 58.7 14.4 3.6 3.8 19.5 100.0

5 to 17 years 62.1 15.0 3.4 3.1 16.4 100.0

18 to 24 years 62.0 13.9 4.2 2.5 17.4 100.0

25 to 44 years 67.4 12.5 4.4 1.9 13.8 100.0

45 to 64 years 76.7 10.4 3.5 1.5 7.9 100.0

65 years and over 83.7 8.0 2.3 0.9 5.0 100.0

65 to 74 years 81.6 8.7 2.7 1.1 5.9 100.0

75 to 84 years 85.8 7.2 2.0 0.8 4.1 100.0

85 years and over 86.9 7.3 1.5 0.7 3.6 100.0


Age

(Percent of each age group's resident population as of July 1)


Projected Percent Race and Hispanic Origin Distribution

of the U.S. Population by Selected Age Groups: 2050

Non-Hispanic

White alone

Non-Hispanic

Black alone

Non-Hispanic

Asian alone

Non-Hispanic

all other races

Hispanic

(any race)Total

Total 46.3 11.8 7.6 4.0 30.2 100.0

Under 5 years 37.1 11.1 5.9 6.5 39.4 100.0

5 to 17 years 38.3 11.3 6.0 5.7 38.6 100.0

18 to 24 years 39.6 11.6 6.4 4.9 37.5 100.0

25 to 44 years 43.6 12.1 7.8 4.1 32.4 100.0

45 to 64 years 49.7 12.8 8.9 3.1 25.5 100.0

65 years and over 58.5 11.2 8.4 2.1 19.8 100.0

65 to 74 years 54.5 12.1 9.3 2.4 21.7 100.0

75 to 84 years 58.2 10.9 8.8 2.0 20.2 100.0

85 years and over 67.4 9.9 5.9 1.8 15.1 100.0


Age

(Percent of each age group's resident population as of July 1)


Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040

Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total

2000 11,074,716 2,421,653 6,669,666 685,785 20,851,820

Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration

2010 11,331,872 2,627,276 8,060,601 783,198 22,802,9472020 11,381,128 2,771,387 9,336,516 841,654 24,330,685

2030 11,171,420 2,823,280 10,576,253 878,107 25,449,0602040 10,733,052 2,796,629 11,662,260 893,129 26,085,070

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000

2010 11,533,974 2,754,744 9,080,436 961,458 24,330,612

2020 11,796,493 3,052,401 11,882,998 1,273,896 28,005,7882030 11,789,298 3,268,616 15,140,100 1,632,575 31,830,5892040 11,525,112 3,403,169 18,804,298 2,028,622 35,761,201

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000

2010 11,739,988 2,888,448 10,252,220 1,177,909 26,058,565

2020 12,227,547 3,361,700 15,226,387 1,921,059 32,736,6932030 12,442,107 3,783,673 21,871,386 3,020,458 41,117,6242040 12,376,308 4,140,673 30,604,622 4,585,897 51,707,500


2010 11,369,946 2,778,528 9,827,743 1,129,429 25,105,6462020 11,461,192 3,106,273 13,922,261 1,762,813 30,252,5392030 11,299,159 3,355,344 19,032,000 2,646,377 36,332,880

2040 10,899,933 3,523,778 25,325,641 3,832,576 43,581,928

Percent Change for Selected Time Periods for Projected Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity Under Alternative

Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration

Period Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total

Assuming Zero Net Migration

2000-2010 2.3 8.5 20.9 14.2 9.42010-2020 0.4 5.5 15.8 7.5 6.7

2020-2030 -1.8 1.9 13.3 4.3 4.62030-2040 -3.9 -0.9 10.3 1.7 2.52000-2040 -3.1 15.5 74.9 30.2 25.1

Assuming Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000

2000-2010 4.1 13.8 36.1 40.2 16.72010-2020 2.3 10.8 30.9 32.5 15.12020-2030 -0.1 7.1 27.4 28.2 13.72030-2040 -2.2 4.1 24.2 24.3 12.3

2000-2040 4.1 40.5 181.9 195.8 71.5

Assuming Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000

2000-2010 6.0 19.3 53.7 71.8 25.02010-2020 4.2 16.4 48.5 63.1 25.6

2020-2030 1.8 12.6 43.6 57.2 25.62030-2040 -0.5 9.4 39.9 51.8 25.82000-2040 11.8 71.0 358.9 568.7 148.0

Assuming Net Migration Equal to 2000-2004

2000-2010 2.7 14.7 47.3 64.7 20.4

2010-2020 0.8 11.8 41.7 56.1 20.52020-2030 -1.4 8.0 36.7 50.1 20.12030-2040 -3.5 5.0 33.1 44.8 20.0

2000-2040 -1.6 45.5 279.7 458.9 109.0

Percent of Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population in Texas by

Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040

Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other

2000 53.1 11.6 32.0 3.3

Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration

2010 49.8 11.5 35.3 3.42020 46.7 11.4 38.4 3.5

2030 43.8 11.1 41.6 3.52040 41.2 10.7 44.7 3.4

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000

2010 47.4 11.3 37.3 4.0

2020 42.2 10.9 42.4 4.52030 37.0 10.3 47.6 5.12040 32.2 9.5 52.6 5.7


2010 45.1 11.1 39.3 4.5

2020 37.3 10.3 46.5 5.92030 30.3 9.2 53.2 7.32040 23.9 8.0 59.2 8.9


2010 45.3 11.1 39.1 4.52020 37.9 10.3 46.0 5.82030 31.1 9.2 52.4 7.3

2040 25.0 8.1 58.1 8.8

Percent Anglo Population

Less Than 50% Anglo Population

50% or Greater Anglo PopulationSource: 2006 Population Projections, Texas State Data Center,Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research,The University of Texas at San Antonio

2000

2040 2040(2000-2004 Scenario)(0.5 Scenario)

2040(1.0 Scenario)

Texas Counties with 50 Percent or More of Their Total Population That is Angloin 2000 and Projected for 2040 Under Alternative Projection Scenarios


Percent of Population by Age Group and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 andProjected Percent of Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity from

2020 to 2040 for Texas Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex andRace/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration

Age Non-Hispanic Group White Black Hispanic Other Total

All Scenarios <18 23.0 31.7 35.8 26.1 28.2 18-24 8.8 11.2 13.2 11.2 10.6 25-44 30.1 32.1 31.8 37.7 31.1 45-64 24.4 17.7 14.0 20.1 20.2 65+ 13.7 7.3 5.2 4.9 9.9 Assuming Rates of Zero Migration 2020 <18 20.1 24.8 32.0 21.2 25.2 18-24 8.2 10.2 11.1 9.1 9.6 25-44 24.7 29.3 26.9 24.0 26.1 45-64 27.4 25.0 21.5 29.9 24.9 65+ 19.6 10.7 8.5 15.8 14.2 2040 <18 17.4 19.9 27.5 16.8 22.2 18-24 7.6 8.8 10.0 6.5 8.7 25-44 24.1 27.6 27.1 23.7 25.9 45-64 24.9 26.5 20.6 22.1 23.0

65+ 26.0 17.2 14.8 30.9 20.2

Percent 65 Years Old and Older

< 11.9 (n=66)

12.0 - 14.9 (n=70)

15.0 - 19.9 (n=80)

20.0 or more (n=38)

Source: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research,The University of Texas at San Antonio. Census 2000 Summary File 1.

Percent of Persons 65 Years of Age and Older in Texas Counties, 2000


Percent 65 Years Old and Older

< 11.9 (n=2)

12.0 - 14.9 (n=19)

15.0 - 19.9 (n=79)

20.0 or more (n=154)

Source: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research,The University of Texas at San Antonio. Texas Population Estimatesand Projections Program, 2006 Projections.

Percent of Persons 65 Years of Age and Older in Texas Counties, 2040*

* Assuming rates of migration equal to 2000-2004


U.S. EDUCATION

Projected Elementary and Secondary School, Community College and Public University Enrollment

in the United States by Race/Ethnicity, 2000-2050

Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Hispanic Non-Hispanic Year White Black Origin Other Total

Total Enrollment

2000 48,210,516 11,401,765 11,583,495 5,577,745 76,773,521 2010 45,818,641 11,372,040 15,839,927 6,911,552 79,942,160 2020 44,987,166 11,616,295 20,623,690 8,545,532 85,772,683 2030 44,729,776 12,139,946 25,763,323 10,190,591 92,823,636 2040 43,321,445 12,364,257 31,741,606 12,027,667 99,454,975 2050 42,431,107 12,801,740 37,970,089 14,123,748 107,326,684

Elementary and Secondary Enrollment 2000 36,491,940 9,163,622 9,695,332 3,917,404 59,268,298 2010 33,735,042 8,825,219 13,412,715 4,858,347 60,831,323 2020 33,566,335 8,984,880 17,413,828 6,023,510 65,988,553 2030 33,328,448 9,393,383 21,607,545 7,063,674 71,393,050 2040 31,941,753 9,463,222 26,572,664 8,308,712 76,286,351 2050 31,386,808 9,786,556 31,637,838 9,745,502 82,556,704

College Enrollment 2000 11,718,576 2,238,143 1,888,163 1,660,341 17,505,223 2010 12,083,599 2,546,821 2,427,212 2,053,205 19,110,837 2020 11,420,831 2,631,415 3,209,862 2,522,022 19,784,130 2030 11,401,328 2,746,563 4,155,778 3,126,917 21,430,586 2040 11,379,692 2,901,035 5,168,942 3,718,955 23,168,624 2050 11,044,299 3,015,184 6,332,251 4,378,246 24,769,980

Percent of Projected Elementary and Secondary School, Community College and Public University Enrollment

in the United States by Race/Ethnicity, 2000-2050

Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Hispanic Non-Hispanic Year White Black Origin Other

Total Enrollment

2000 62.7 14.9 15.1 7.3 2010 57.4 14.2 19.8 8.6 2020 52.5 13.5 24.0 10.0 2030 48.1 13.1 27.8 11.0 2040 43.6 12.4 31.9 12.1 2050 39.5 11.9 35.4 13.2

Elementary and Secondary Enrollment 2000 61.5 15.5 16.4 6.6 2010 55.5 14.5 22.0 8.0 2020 50.9 13.6 26.4 9.1 2030 46.6 13.2 30.3 9.9 2040 41.9 12.4 34.8 10.9 2050 38.0 11.9 38.3 11.8

College Enrollment 2000 66.9 12.8 10.8 9.5 2010 63.3 13.3 12.7 10.7 2020 57.8 13.3 16.2 12.7 2030 53.2 12.8 19.4 14.6 2040 49.1 12.5 22.3 16.1 2050 44.5 12.2 25.6 17.7

Percent Change for Selected Time Periods for Projected Elementaryand Secondary School, Community College and Public University

Enrollment in the United States by Race/Ethnicity, 2000-2050

Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Hispanic Non-Hispanic Year White Black Origin Other Total

Total Enrollment

2000-2010 -5.0 -0.3 36.7 23.9 4.1 2010-2020 -1.8 2.1 30.2 23.6 7.3 2020-2030 -0.6 4.5 24.9 19.3 8.2 2030-2040 -3.1 1.8 23.2 18.0 7.1 2040-2050 -2.1 3.5 19.6 17.4 7.9 2000-2050 -12.0 12.3 227.8 153.2 39.8

Elementary and Secondary Enrollment 2000-2010 -7.6 -3.7 38.3 24.0 2.6 2010-2020 -0.5 1.8 29.8 24.0 8.5 2020-2030 -0.7 4.5 24.1 17.3 8.2 2030-2040 -4.2 0.7 23.0 17.6 6.9 2040-2050 -1.7 3.4 19.1 17.3 8.2 2000-2050 -14.0 6.8 226.3 148.8 39.3

College Enrollment 2000-2010 3.1 13.8 28.5 23.7 9.2 2010-2020 -5.5 3.3 32.2 22.8 3.5 2020-2030 -0.2 4.4 29.5 24.0 8.3 2030-2040 -0.2 5.6 24.4 18.9 8.1 2040-2050 -2.9 3.9 22.5 17.7 6.9 2000-2050 -5.8 34.7 235.4 163.7 41.5

Percent of Net Change in Elementary and Secondary School, Community College and Public University Enrollment in the

United States Due to Each Race/Ethnicity, 2000-2050

Race Number Percent

Total Enrollment Non-Hispanic White -5,779,409 -19.0 Non-Hispanic Black 1,399,975 4.6 Hispanic Origin 26,386,594 86.4 Non-Hispanic Other 8,546,003 28.0 Total 30,553,163 100.0 Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Non-Hispanic White -5,105,132 -21.9 Non-Hispanic Black 622,934 2.7 Hispanic Origin 21,942,506 94.2 Non-Hispanic Other 5,828,098 25.0 Total 23,288,406 100.0 College Enrollment Non-Hispanic White -674,277 -9.3 Non-Hispanic Black 777,041 10.7 Hispanic Origin 4,444,088 61.2 Non-Hispanic Other 2,717,905 37.4 Total 7,264,757 100.0

U.S. LABOR FORCE

Projections of the Civilian Labor Force of the United States from2001 to 2050 by Race/Ethnicity from the Middle Projection Scenario

Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Year White Black Hispanic Other Total

2000 100,177,990 14,453,507 14,719,717 8,317,584 137,668,798 2010 102,572,104 16,572,350 20,337,473 10,991,486 150,473,413 2020 99,503,638 17,955,037 26,838,744 13,848,138 158,145,557 2030 96,065,987 19,025,575 34,158,931 17,002,785 166,253,278 2040 94,977,559 20,209,376 42,394,793 20,351,836 177,933,564 2050 93,550,875 21,127,696 52,120,668 24,013,290 190,812,529

Percent of the Projections of the Civilian Labor Force of the United Statesfrom 2001 to 2050 by Race/Ethnicity for the Middle Projection Scenario

Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Year White Black Hispanic Other

2000 72.8 10.5 10.7 6.0 2010 68.2 11.0 13.5 7.3 2020 62.8 11.4 17.0 8.8 2030 57.9 11.4 20.5 10.2 2040 53.4 11.4 23.8 11.4 2050 49.0 11.1 27.3 12.6

Percent Change for Selected Time Periods for Projected Civilian LaborForce by Race/Ethnicity for The United States, 2000-2050

Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic TIME White Black Hispanic Other Total

2000-2010 2.4 14.7 38.2 32.1 9.3 2010-2020 -3.0 8.3 32.0 26.0 5.1 2020-2030 -3.5 6.0 27.3 22.8 5.1 2030-2040 -1.1 6.2 24.1 19.7 7.0 2040-2050 -1.5 4.5 22.9 18.0 7.2 2000-2050 -6.6 46.2 254.1 188.7 38.6

Percent of Net Change in the U.S. Civilian Labor Force from 2000-2050 Due to Each Race/Ethnicity Group Under Middle Scenario

Race/Ethnicity Number Percent

Non-Hispanic White -6,627,115 -12.5 Non-Hispanic Black 6,674,189 12.6 Hispanic 37,400,951 70.4 Non-Hispanic Other 15,695,706 29.5 Total 53,143,731 100.0

TEXAS EDUCATION


Enrollment and Change in Enrollment of Economically

Disadvantaged and All Students by Ethnicity in Texas

Public Schools, 1999-2000 and 2009-2010 School Years

Enrollment 10-Year Change Proportion

Race/Ethnicity 1999-2000 2009-2010 Numeric Percent

1999-

2000

2009-

2010

Economically Disadvantaged

White 359,510 443, 933 84,423 23.5 18.4 15.6

African American 369,393 475,994 106,601 28.9 18.9 16.7

Other 36,734 66,874 30,140 82.0 1.9 2.3

Hispanic 1,190,363 1,866,376 676,013 56.8 60.8 65.4

Total 1,956,000 2,853,177 897,177 45.9 100.0 100.0

Total

White 1,727,733 1,615,459 -112,274 -6.5 43.2 33.3

African American 576,977 679,351 102,374 17.7 14.4 14.0

Other 114,979 198,992 84,013 73.1 2.9 4.1

Hispanic 1,582,538 2,354,042 771,504 48.8 39.5 48.6

Total 4,002,227 4,847,844 845,617 21.1 100.0 100.0

Source: Texas Education Agency, Enrollment in Texas Public Schools, 2009-10 http://ritter.tea.state.tx.us/research/pdfs/enrollment_2008-09.pdf

District/County/School Year White (%)

African

American (%) Hispanic (%)

Asian/Pacific

Islander (%)

Native

American (%)

Total

Enrollment

Houston ISD (Harris)

2000-2001 10.0 32.1 54.9 2.9 0.1 208,462

2010-2011 7.8 26.2 61.9 3.2 0.2 204,245

Dallas ISD (Dallas)

2000-2001 7.8 35.9 54.5 1.4 0.4 161,548

2010-2011 4.6 25.0 68.2 1.2 0.4 157,162

Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (Harris)

2000-2001 58.5 10.0 23.4 7.9 0.2 63,497

2010-2011 31.0 15.5 42.5 8.0 0.2 106,097

Northside ISD (Bexar)

2000-2001 36.7 6.6 54.3 2.2 0.2 63,739

2010-2011 20.1 6.2 67.8 3.1 0.2 95,581

Austin ISD (Travis)

2000-2001 33.7 15.7 47.8 2.5 0.3 77,816

2010-2011 24.3 9.5 60.3 3.4 0.3 85,697

Fort Worth ISD ( Tarrant)

2000-2001 21.4 30.9 45.4 2.1 0.2 79,661

2010-2011 14.3 23.4 59.2 1.8 0.3 81,651

Fort Bend ISD (Fort Bend)

2000-2001 37.8 28.0 18.1 16.0 0.1 53,999

2010-2011 20.3 29.4 25.9 21.4 0.6 68,948

North East ISD (Bexar)

2000-2001 49.1 9.4 38.8 2.5 0.2 50,875

2010-2011 32.0 7.3 54.1 3.6 0.3 66,604

Arlington ISD (Tarrant)

2000-2001 47.3 21.3 24.0 6.8 0.6 58,866

2010-2011 26.2 23.2 41.8 6.8 0.4 64,484

El Paso ISD (El Paso)

2000-2001 15.2 4.8 78.5 1.2 0.3 62,325

2010-2011 10.7 4.1 82.8 1.2 0.3 64,330

Total Public School Students by Race/Ethnicity in the 10 Largest* School Districts in Texas, 2000-2001 and 2010-2011

*Largest enrollment based on 2010-2011 school yearSource: Data compiled by the Texas State Data Center from Texas Education Agency, Academic Excellence Indicator System (AEIS) District Profiles

Texas Higher Education Enrollment in Public Universities, Public 2-year Colleges andHealth-related Institutions by Race/Ethnicity, 2000 and 2008

Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity

Public

Univ

Public

2-year Colleges

Health-related

Institutions

2000 Enrollment

White (%) 58.4 52.8 61.3

African American (%) 9.8 11.0 4.9

Hispanic (%) 19.6 28.9 12.6

Asian (%) 5.7 3.9 14.6

American Indian (%) .5 .5 .5

International (%) 5.3 2.4 4.8

Unknown (%) .7 .5 1.3

Total 2000 Enrollment 414,626 447,998 13,806

2008 Enrollment

White (%) 50.4 45.2 51.3

African American (%) 11.6 11.8 6.6

Hispanic (%) 24.3 34.1 13.8

Asian (%) 6.6 4.2 14.5

American Indian (%) .5 .5 .6

International (%) 5.7 2.5 9.7

Unknown (%) .9 1.7 3.5

Total 2008 Enrollment 509,136 617,507 20,421

Source: Data compiled by the Texas State Data Center using data from the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board (THECB)

Public Elementary and Secondary Public CommunityCollege, and Public University Enrollment in Texas by

Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections to 2040 AssumingRates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario)


Total Public Education (All Levels)

2000 2,186,097 661,995 1,785,676 160,507 4,794,275 2010 2,125,643 693,172 2,367,308 231,798 5,417,921 2020 2,106,211 731,976 3,308,472 326,936 6,473,595 2030 1,992,718 746,148 4,324,751 432,828 7,496,445 2040 1,852,133 739,828 5,596,378 590,265 8,778,604

Public Elementary and Secondary

2000 1,727,733 576,977 1,582,538 114,979 4,002,227 2010 1,643,722 588,781 2,065,327 164,425 4,462,255 2020 1,643,592 619,318 2,892,656 227,683 5,383,249 2030 1,527,293 623,104 3,729,428 287,975 6,167,800 2040 1,411,454 612,608 4,803,635 397,902 7,225,599

Public Community Colleges

2000 230,497 46,742 124,057 19,782 421,078 2010 239,191 56,798 184,582 29,824 510,395 2020 232,120 62,178 254,482 44,330 593,110 2030 232,363 68,156 364,216 65,020 729,755 2040 220,266 70,850 485,107 88,280 864,503

Public Universities

2000 227,867 38,276 79,081 25,746 370,970 2010 242,730 47,593 117,399 37,549 445,271 2020 230,499 50,480 161,334 54,923 497,236 2030 233,062 54,888 231,107 79,833 598,890 2040 220,413 56,370 307,636 104,083 688,502

Total Public Colleges and Universities

2000 458,364 85,018 203,138 45,528 792,048 2010 481,921 104,391 301,981 67,373 955,666 2020 462,619 112,658 415,816 99,253 1,090,346 2030 465,425 123,044 595,323 144,853 1,328,645 2040 440,679 127,220 792,743 192,363 1,553,005

Percent of Public Elementary and Secondary, PublicCommunity College and Public University Enrollment in Texasby Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections to 2040 Assuming

Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario)


Public Education (All Levels)

2000 45.7 13.8 37.2 3.3 2010 39.2 12.8 43.7 4.3 2020 32.5 11.3 51.1 5.1 2030 26.5 10.0 57.7 5.8 2040 21.1 8.4 63.8 6.7

Public Elementary and Secondary

2000 43.2 14.4 39.5 2.9 2010 36.8 13.2 46.3 3.7 2020 30.6 11.5 53.7 4.2 2030 24.7 10.1 60.5 4.7 2040 19.5 8.5 66.5 5.5

Public Community Colleges

2000 54.7 11.1 29.5 4.7 2010 46.9 11.1 36.2 5.8 2020 39.1 10.5 42.9 7.5 2030 31.9 9.3 49.9 8.9 2040 25.5 8.2 56.1 10.2

Public Universities

2000 61.5 10.3 21.3 6.9 2010 54.5 10.7 26.4 8.4 2020 46.4 10.2 32.4 11.0 2030 38.9 9.2 38.6 13.3 2040 32.0 8.2 44.7 15.1

Total Public Colleges and Universities

2000 58.0 10.7 25.6 5.7 2010 50.5 10.9 31.6 7.0 2020 42.5 10.3 38.1 9.1 2030 35.0 9.3 44.8 10.9 2040 28.4 8.2 51.0 12.4

TEXAS LABOR FORCE


Projections of Civilian Labor Force in Texas by Race/EthnicityAssuming Alternative Projection Scenarios, 2000 to 2040


2000 5,741,765 1,053,552 2,700,075 335,167 9,830,559 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration 2010 5,810,029 1,199,667 3,299,753 368,732 10,678,181 2020 5,563,393 1,265,378 3,850,987 372,710 11,052,468 2030 5,312,914 1,279,307 4,332,859 364,545 11,289,625 2040 5,110,308 1,274,155 4,722,681 352,305 11,459,449 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 2010 5,922,120 1,258,663 3,805,362 464,481 11,450,626 2020 5,778,384 1,395,998 5,071,050 586,070 12,831,502 2030 5,619,763 1,485,116 6,539,041 707,879 14,351,799 2040 5,497,055 1,557,689 8,111,449 833,779 15,999,972 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 2010 6,036,408 1,320,511 4,394,254 582,258 12,333,431 2020 6,001,817 1,539,959 6,720,289 915,688 15,177,753 2030 5,944,488 1,723,492 9,917,813 1,364,129 18,949,922 2040 5,913,114 1,903,402 13,980,316 1,958,552 23,755,384 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 2000-2007 2010 5,886,054 1,346,947 4,278,133 583,323 12,094,457 2020 5,710,962 1,593,503 6,293,283 901,517 14,499,265 2030 5,528,586 1,803,590 8,824,223 1,304,376 17,460,775 2040 5,378,380 2,015,813 11,638,896 1,788,788 20,821,877


Projections of the Percent of Civilian Labor Force in Texas by

Race/Ethnicity Assuming Alternative Projection Scenarios,

2000-2040


2000 58.4 10.7 27.5 3.4

Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration 2010 54.4 11.2 30.9 3.5 2020 50.4 11.4 34.8 3.4 2030 47.1 11.3 38.4 3.2 2040 44.6 11.1 41.2 3.1

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 2010 51.7 11.0 33.2 4.1 2020 45.0 10.9 39.5 4.6 2030 39.2 10.3 45.6 4.9 2040 34.4 9.7 50.7 5.2

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 2010 49.0 10.7 35.6 4.7 2020 39.6 10.1 44.3 6.0 2030 31.4 9.1 52.3 7.2 2040 24.9 8.0 58.9 8.2

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 2000-2007 2010 48.7 11.1 35.4 4.8 2020 39.4 11.0 43.4 6.2 2030 31.7 10.3 50.5 7.5 2040 25.8 9.7 55.9 8.6


Average Household Income in Texas, 2000-2040* (in 2000 Dollars)


$54,441

$52,639

$50,903

$49,326

$47,883

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

Projected Percent of Households in Poverty by

Family Type in Texas, 2000 and 2040


11.4

7.5

15.0

26.7

18.9

14.415.4

11.8

17.0

30.0

18.9

16.6

Family

Households

Married

Couple

Male

Householder

Female

Householder

Nonfamily

Households

Total

Households

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Percent in Poverty

2000 2040

Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040


18.8

29 28.7

18.2

5.3

30.128.7

23.9

12.9

4.4

No High

School Diploma

High School

Graduate

Some

College

Bachelor's

Degree

Graduate/Prof.

Degree

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Percent

2000 2040


Average Annual Household Income in Texas and the United States by Educational Attainment of Householder in 2000*

*From Census 2000 Public Use Microdata Sample (1% File)

$30,412

$42,271

$52,552

$80,950

$102,410

$32,473

$44,068

$54,467

$80,327

$104,294

Less Than

High School

High School

Graduate

Some College or

Associate Degree

Bachelor's

Degree

Graduate/Professional

Degree

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

Average Income

Texas United States

Percent of Persons 25 Years of Age or Older by Level of Educational Attainment and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected to 2040* Assuming 1990-2000 Trends in Educational Attainment Rates

*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

12.7

25.7

31.6

30.0

24.0

29.9

30.6

15.5

50.7

22.0

18.4

8.9

21.0

16.1

20.6

42.3

2.2

16.6

33.4

47.8

4.3

25.6

40.5

29.6

32.1

25.8

24.1

18.0

13.4

7.6

11.0

68.0

< High School

High School

Some Coll/Assoc

Bachelor's +

< High School

High School

Some Coll/Assoc.

Bachelor's +

< High School

High School

Some Coll/Assoc

Bachelor's +

< High School

High School

Some Coll/Assoc

Bachelor's +

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0

Percent

2000 2040

Black

Hispanic

Other

Anglo


Aggregate Income and Consumer Expenditures for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under

Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040*

*Source: Texas State Data Center. Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

$251

$621

$765

$938

$210

$528

$629

$752

2000Base Values

2040 Assuming2000 Attainment

Differentials

2040 Assuming1990-2000 Trends

in Differentials

2040 AssumingAnglo Trends

Apply to all Groups

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

Billions

Aggregate Income Consumer Expenditures


The mark of a truly educated man is to be

moved deeply by statistics.

George Bernard Shaw

Steve MurdockPhone: 210-867-4385

E-mail: [email protected]

Website: http://hobbycenter.rice.edu

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

Population Change in the United States and Texas: Implications … · 2011-08-19 · Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population 18 and Older by Race/Ethnicity