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Population Change:
Implications for The Future Of
Houston, Texas,
and The United States
Steve Murdock, Ph.D.
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas
Allyn and Gladys Cline Professor of Sociology
Rice University
Total Population and Percent Population Change
in Texas and the United States, 1850-2010
Total Population Percent Change
Year Texas U.S. Texas U.S.
1850 212,592 23,191,876 --- ---
1860 604,215 31,443,321 184.2 35.6
1870 818,579 39,818,449 35.5 26.6
1880 1,591,749 50,155,783 94.5 26.0
1890 2,235,527 62,947,714 40.4 25.5
1900 3,048,710 75,994,575 36.4 20.7
1910 3,896,542 91,972,266 27.8 21.0
1920 4,663,228 105,710,620 19.7 14.9
1930 5,824,715 122,775,046 24.9 16.1
1940 6,414,824 131,669,275 10.1 7.2
1950 7,711,194 150,697,361 20.2 14.5
1960 9,579,677 179,323,175 24.2 19.0
1970 11,196,730 203,302,031 16.9 13.4
1980 14,229,191 226,545,805 27.1 11.4
1990 16,986,510 248,709,873 19.4 9.8
2000 20,851,820 281,421,906 22.8 13.2
2010 25,145,561 308,745,538 20.6 9.7
Source: Derived from the U.S. Census Bureau decennial census April 1 of reported year.
Change 2000-2010
State
2000
Population
2010
Population Numeric Percent
United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7
Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6
California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0
Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6
Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3
North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5
Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6
Virginia 7,078,515 8,001,024 922,509 13.0
Washington 5,894,121 6,724,540 830,419 14.1
Colorado 4,301,261 5,029,196 727,935 16.9
Nevada 1,998,257 2,700,551 702,294 35.1
Ten States in the United States with the
Largest Numeric Population Increase 2000-2010
Population values as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Ten States in the United States with the
Largest Numeric Population Increase, 2010-2018
Population Change, 2010-2018
Geographic Area April 1, 2010 July 1, 2018 Numeric Percent
United States 308,758,105 327,167,434 18,409,329 6.0
Texas 25,146,114 28,701,845 3,555,731 14.1
Florida 18,804,580 21,299,325 2,494,745 13.3
California 37,254,523 39,557,045 2,302,522 6.2
North Carolina 9,535,736 10,383,620 847,884 8.9
Georgia 9,688,709 10,519,475 830,766 8.6
Washington 6,724,540 7,535,591 811,051 12.1
Arizona 6,392,288 7,171,646 779,358 12.2
Colorado 5,029,316 5,695,564 666,248 13.2
Virginia 8,001,055 8,517,685 516,630 6.5
South Carolina 4,625,381 5,084,127 458,746 9.9
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, Vintage 2018.
Twenty-Five Largest Cities in the United States, 2018
Twenty-Five Cities in the United States with the
Largest Numeric Population Increase, 2010-2018
Twenty MSAs with the Largest Numeric Change, 2010 - 2018
Population Change 2010-2018
Metropolitan Statistical Area April 1, 2010 July 1, 2018 Numeric Percent
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 6,426,222 7,539,711 1,113,489 17.3
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX 5,920,487 6,997,384 1,076,897 18.2
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 4,193,127 4,857,962 664,835 15.9
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 5,286,750 5,949,951 663,201 12.5
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL 5,566,294 6,198,782 632,488 11.4
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 5,636,363 6,249,950 613,587 10.9
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 3,439,805 3,939,363 499,558 14.5
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 12,828,946 13,291,486 462,540 3.6
Austin-Round Rock, TX 1,716,321 2,168,316 451,995 26.3
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 2,134,402 2,572,962 438,560 20.5
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA 19,566,527 19,979,477 412,950 2.1
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 4,224,966 4,622,361 397,395 9.4
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA 4,335,587 4,729,484 393,897 9.1
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO 2,543,602 2,932,415 388,813 15.3
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 2,142,521 2,518,036 375,515 17.5
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 2,783,462 3,142,663 359,201 12.9
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 2,216,997 2,569,213 352,216 15.9
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH 4,552,598 4,875,390 322,792 7.1
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV 1,951,271 2,231,647 280,376 14.4
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 3,348,862 3,629,190 280,328 8.4
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates, Vintage 2018.
Components of Population Change
for Texas, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018
Natural Increase
48%
Net International
Migration23%
Net Domestic Migration
29%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Population Estimates
Total Change: 3,555,731
Components of Population Change for
Bexar County, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018
Natural Increase
44%
Net International
Migration17%
Net Domestic Migration
39%
Total Change: 271,277
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Population Estimates.
Components of Population Change for
Dallas County, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018
198,670
108,290
-34,526
Natural Increase Net InternationalMigration
Net Domestic Migration
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Total Change: 271,089
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Population Estimates.
Components of Population Change for
Harris County, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018
370,217
259,047
-23,113
Natural Increase Net InternationalMigration
Net Domestic Migration
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Total Change: 605,431
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Population Estimates.
Census Estimates
2018
Top Twenty Counties in the United States
Ranked by Estimated Natural Increase, 2010-2018
July 9, 201913
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, County Population Estimates, 2018 Vintage.
Rank County State Natural Increase
1 Los Angeles County California 539,224
2 Harris County Texas 370,217
3 Cook County Illinois 233,273
4 Maricopa County Arizona 212,744
5 Kings County New York 206,516
6 Dallas County Texas 198,670
7 San Diego County California 186,724
8 Orange County California 154,691
9 San Bernardino County California 143,821
10 Tarrant County Texas 131,601
11 Queens County New York 128,622
12 Riverside County California 121,280
13 Bexar County Texas 120,281
14 Santa Clara County California 110,893
15 King County Washington 104,621
16 Miami-Dade County Florida 100,048
17 Hidalgo County Texas 96,389
18 Clark County Nevada 96,269
19 Bronx County New York 96,065
20 Salt Lake County Utah 94,545
Top Twenty Counties in the United States Ranked by
Estimated Net International Migration, 2010-2018
July 9, 201914
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, County Population Estimates, 2018 Vintage.
Rank County State Net International Migration
1 Miami-Dade County Florida 330,006
2 Los Angeles County California 316,817
3 Harris County Texas 208,178
4 King County Washington 195,659
5 Santa Clara County California 169,030
6 Cook County Illinois 131,818
7 Queens County New York 131,508
8 Broward County Florida 129,029
9 Kings County New York 120,943
10 San Diego County California 115,613
11 Dallas County Texas 111,231
12 Bronx County New York 109,733
13 Orange County Florida 87,309
14 Middlesex County Massachusetts 86,753
15 Maricopa County Arizona 85,745
16 New York County New York 85,183
17 Alameda County California 84,234
18 Orange County California 74,861
19 Suffolk County Massachusetts 73,991
20 Fairfax County Virginia 73,219
Top Twenty Counties in the United States Ranked by
Estimated Net Domestic Migration, 2010-2018
July 9, 201915
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, County Population Estimates, 2018 Vintage.
Note: Domestic migration includes migrants moving from adjacent counties.
Rank County State Net Domestic Migration
1 Maricopa County Arizona 280,123
2 Clark County Nevada 154,139
3 Collin County Texas 125,277
4 Denton County Texas 122,558
5 Riverside County California 121,574
6 Fort Bend County Texas 111,760
7 Lee County Florida 111,197
8 Bexar County Texas 105,268
9 Williamson County Texas 101,079
10 Wake County North Carolina 97,063
11 Montgomery County Texas 92,845
12 Travis County Texas 85,888
13 Tarrant County Texas 84,464
14 Palm Beach County Florida 83,893
15 Hillsborough County Florida 79,328
16 Pasco County Florida 74,016
17 Polk County Florida 72,507
18 Horry County South Carolina 72,001
19 Mecklenburg County North Carolina 64,535
20 Manatee County Florida 64,122
Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population
by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 2000 and 2010
Population Population Change Percent of Total Population
Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric PercentPercent of
Total Change2000 2010
NH White 194,552,774 196,817,552 2,264,778 1.2 8.3 69.1 63.7
Hispanic (All Races) 35,305,818 50,477,594 15,171,776 43.0 55.5 12.5 16.3
NH Black 33,947,837 37,685,848 3,738,011 11.0 13.7 12.1 12.2
NH Asian 10,123,169 14,465,124 4,341,955 42.9 15.9 3.6 4.7
NH Other 7,492,308 9,299,420 1,807,112 24.1 6.6 2.7 3.0
Total 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7 100.0 100.0 100.0
*Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes
persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-
Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races.
Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, P.L. 94-171.
Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University http://HobbyCenter.Rice.edu
Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population
Under 18 Years by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 2000 and 2010
Population Population Change Percent of Total Population
Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric PercentPercent of
Total Change2000 2010
NH White 44,027,087 39,716,562 -4,310,525 -9.8 -228.4 60.9 53.5
Hispanic (All Races) 12,342,259 17,130,891 4,788,632 38.8 253.7 17.1 23.1
NH Black 10,610,264 10,362,183 -248,081 -2.3 -13.1 14.7 14.0
NH Asian 2,420,274 3,176,129 755,855 31.2 40.0 3.3 4.3
NH Other 2,893,928 3,795,702 901,774 31.2 47.8 4.0 5.1
Total 72,293,812 74,181,467 1,887,655 2.6 100.0 100.0 100.0
*Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons
identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-
Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races.
Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, P.L. 94-171.
Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University http://HobbyCenter.Rice.edu
Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the
Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the
Austin-Round Rock Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2000 and 2010
Population Population Change
Percent of
Total Change
Racial Group 2000 2010 Numeric Percent
Percent of
Total Change 2000 2010
NH* White 758,302 938,474 180,172 23.8 38.6 60.7 54.7
NH Black 96,746 120,510 23,764 24.6 5.1 7.7 7.0
Hispanic 327,760 538,313 210,553 64.2 45.1 26.2 31.4
NH Asian & Other 66,955 118,992 52,037 77.7 11.2 5.4 6.9
Total 1,249,763 1,716,289 466,526 37.3 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171.
Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) as defined by OMB in 2013.
*NH refers to nonHispanic values for categories labeled NH are only for the nonHispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics
of all races.
Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the
Total Population Under Age 18 by Race/Ethnicity for the
Austin-Round Rock Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2000 and 2010
Population Population Change
Percent of
Total Change
Racial Group 2000 2010 Numeric Percent
Percent of
Total Change 2000 2010
NH* White 161,723 182,346 20,623 12.8 17.5 51.0 41.9
NH Black 28,862 32,637 3,775 13.1 3.2 9.1 7.5
Hispanic 109,686 185,913 76,227 69.5 64.8 34.6 42.8
NH Asian & Other 16,751 33,864 17,113 102.2 14.5 5.3 7.8
Total 317,022 434,760 117,738 37.1 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171.
Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) as defined by OMB in 2013.
*NH refers to nonHispanic values for categories labeled NH are only for the nonHispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics
of all races.
Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the
Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington
Metropolitan Statistical Area, Texas 2000 and 2010
Population Population Change
Percent of
Total Change
Racial Group 2000 2010 Numeric Percent
Percent of
Total Change 2000 2010
NH* White 3,081,734 3,248,509 166,775 5.4 13.6 59.3 50.5
NH Black 707,490 941,599 234,109 33.1 19.2 13.6 14.7
Hispanic 1,121,442 1,758,738 637,296 56.8 52.2 21.5 27.4
NH Asian & Other 293,460 477,368 183,908 62.7 15.0 5.6 7.4
Total 5,204,126 6,426,214 1,222,088 23.5 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171.
Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) as defined by OMB in 2013.
*NH refers to nonHispanic values for categories labeled NH are only for the nonHispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics
of all races.
Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the
Total Population Under Age 18 by Race/Ethnicity for the
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2000 and 2010
Population Population Change
Percent of
Total Change
Racial Group 2000 2010 Numeric Percent
Percent of
Total Change 2000 2010
NH* White 735,112 699,178 -35,934 -4.9 -11.1 50.2 39.1
NH Black 227,185 277,206 50,021 22.0 15.4 15.6 15.5
Hispanic 410,193 661,960 251,767 61.4 77.5 28.1 37.1
NH Asian & Other 88,486 147,481 58,995 66.7 18.2 6.1 8.3
Total 1,460,976 1,785,825 324,849 22.2 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171.
Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) as defined by OMB in 2013.
*NH refers to nonHispanic values for categories labeled NH are only for the nonHispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics
of all races.
Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population
by Race/Ethnicity for the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2000 and 2010
Population Population Change
Percent of
Total Change
Racial Group 2000 2010 Numeric Percent
Percent of
Total Change 2000 2010
NH* White 2,256,857 2,340,268 83,411 3.7 6.8 48.1 39.6
NH Black 781,159 996,221 215,062 27.5 17.5 16.6 16.8
Hispanic 1,352,393 2,096,532 744,139 55.0 60.7 28.8 35.4
NH Asian & Other 302,752 487,395 184,643 61.0 15.0 6.5 8.2
Total 4,693,161 5,920,416 1,227,255 26.1 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171.
Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) as defined by OMB in 2013.
*NH refers to nonHispanic values for categories labeled NH are only for the nonHispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics
of all races.
Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population
Under 18 by Race/Ethnicity for the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2000 and 2010
Population Population Change
Percent of
Total Change
Racial Group 2000 2010 Numeric Percent
Percent of
Total Change 2000 2010
NH* White 542,563 494,054 -48,509 -8.9 -16.5 39.8 29.8
NH Black 244,702 282,991 38,289 15.6 13.0 18.0 17.1
Hispanic 489,495 744,227 254,732 52.0 86.8 35.9 45.0
NH Asian & Other 85,634 134,692 49,058 57.3 16.7 6.3 8.1
Total 1,362,394 1,655,964 293,570 21.5 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171.
Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) as defined by OMB in 2013.
*NH refers to nonHispanic values for categories labeled NH are only for the nonHispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics
of all races.
POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS
Total and Percent of the Population in Poverty and Median Household
Income by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 1999 and 2010
Race/
Ethnicity
1999 2010
Population
in Poverty%
Median
Household
Income*
Population
in Poverty%
Median
Household
Income*
NH White 16,026,542 8.3 $59,221 21,831,928 10.8 $53,988
Hispanic (All Races) 7,797,874 22.6 $44,079 12,583,542 24.8 $40,165
NH Black 7,970,165 24.8 $38,541 10,270,229 27.1 $33,568
NH Asian 1,241,291 12.6 $68,020 1,806,217 12.4 $67,142
Total 33,899,812 12.4 $54,966 47,330,502 15.3 $50,046
*In 2010 Dollars.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Summary File 4, 2006-2010 American Community Survey
Not all race/ethnic groups are shown here but are included in the total.
Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University http://HobbyCenter.Rice.edu
Total and Percent of the Population in Poverty and Median
Household Income by Race/Ethnicity for Texas, 1999 and 2010
Race/
Ethnicity
1999 2010
Population
in Poverty%
Median
Household
Income*
Population
in Poverty%
Median
Household
Income*
NH White 856,055 7.9 $61,542 1,111,251 9.5 $59,517
Hispanic (All Races) 1,658,434 25.4 $39,101 2,555,080 26.8 $37,087
Black 515,859 23.3 $38,378 717,458 24.7 $35,674
Asian 63,598 11.7 $65,633 120,601 12.6 $64,191
Total 3,117,609 15.4 $52,260 4,521,023 17.9 $48,615
*In 2010 Dollars.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Summary File 4, 2006-2010 American Community Survey
Not all race/ethnic groups are shown here but are included in the total.
Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University http://HobbyCenter.Rice.edu
Total and Percent of the Population in Poverty and Median Household Income by
Race/Ethnicity for Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA, Texas, 1999 and 2010
Race/
Ethnicity
1999 2010
Population in
Poverty%
Median
Household
Income*
Population in
Poverty%
Median
Household
Income*
NH White 52,995 7.0 $70,307 87,639 9.3 $64,893
Hispanic (All Races) 57,897 18.1 $50,599 139,333 25.6 $39,843
NH Black 15,932 17.8 $47,130 29,904 24.4 $38,465
Asian 6,502 15.6 $64,801 11,352 13.9 $67,317
Total 134,589 11.1 $63,905 274,801 15.9 $55,744
*In 2010 Dollars
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Summary File 4, 2006-2010 American Community Survey
Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University http://HobbyCenter.Rice.edu
Total and Percent of the Population in Poverty and Median Household Income
by Race/Ethnicity for Dallas-Forth Worth-Arlington MSA, Texas, 1999 and 2010
Race/
Ethnicity
1999 2010
Population in
Poverty%
Median
Household
Income*
Population in
Poverty%
Median
Household
Income*
NH White 168,399 5.5 $72,291 234,244 7.3 $66,611
Hispanic (All Races) 219,006 19.9 $46,782 419,024 23.7 $40,083
NH Black 134,474 19.7 $43,070 220,867 23.6 $37,539
Asian 19,165 10.0 $72,049 37,441 11.0 $70,006
Total 547,385 10.8 $63,245 934,827 14.6 $54,449
*In 2010 Dollars
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Summary File 4, 2006-2010 American Community Survey
Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University http://HobbyCenter.Rice.edu
Total and Percent of the Population in Poverty and Median Household Income
by Race/Ethnicity for Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA, Texas, 1999 and 2010
Race/
Ethnicity
1999 2010
Population in
Poverty%
Median
Household
Income*
Population in
Poverty%
Median
Household
Income*
NH White 142,906 6.2 $73,353 167,593 7.1 $72,480
Hispanic (All Races) 294,484 22.0 $43,087 533,716 25.2 $40,972
NH Black 167,271 22.0 $41,210 223,990 22.2 $39,638
Asian 25,338 11.4 $67,702 50,732 12.9 $67,333
Total 635,349 13.7 $58,497 986,220 16.5 $53,942
*In 2010 Dollars
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Summary File 4, 2006-2010 American Community Survey
Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University http://HobbyCenter.Rice.edu
Total and Percent of the Population in Poverty and Median Household Income
by Race/Ethnicity for San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA, Texas, 1999 and 2010
Race/
Ethnicity
1999 2010
Population in
Poverty%
Median
Household
Income*
Population in
Poverty%
Median
Household
Income*
NH White 47,870 6.9 $63,329 57,496 7.4 $63,067
Hispanic (All Races) 182,882 21.5 $40,849 258,421 22.1 $41,439
NH Black 17,941 19.0 $42,457 24,354 18.5 $39,004
Asian 2,277 9.8 $53,032 4,778 11.1 $56,056
Total 252,311 15.1 $51,091 351,737 16.3 $50,225
*In 2010 Dollars
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Summary File 4, 2006-2010 American Community Survey
Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University http://HobbyCenter.Rice.edu
PROJECTIONS
U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin:
Census 2010 and Projected for 2020 to 2060
Year
(Resident population as of July 1, Number in thousands)
Non-HispanicHispanic
(any race)Total
White alone Black alone Asian aloneAll other
races
2010 196,818 37,686 14,465 9,299 50,478 308,746
2020 199,312 41,776 18,246 10,778 63,784 333,896
2030 198,818 45,452 22,044 13,502 78,655 358,471
2040 193,887 48,769 25,881 16,603 94,876 380,016
2050 186,334 51,988 29,583 20,166 111,732 399,803
2060 178,952 55,302 33,106 24,128 128,780 420,268
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census and 2012 National Projections
Numeric Change in U.S. Population by Race and
Hispanic Origin: 2010 to 2060 (in millions)
-17.9
17.6 18.614.8
78.3
111.5
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
NH White NH Black NH Asian NH Other Hispanic(any race)
Total
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census and 2012 National Projections
Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projections of the Population in
Texas by Race/Ethnicity from 2020 to 2050 Under Alternative Assumptions of Age
and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Rates of Net Migration
38
Year NH1 White NH Black Hispanic
NH Asian &
Other2 Total
Assuming Zero Net Migration
2010 11,397,345 2,886,825 9,460,921 1,400,470 25,145,561
2020 11,576,595 3,122,637 11,137,672 1,536,693 27,373,597
2030 11,501,020 3,280,941 12,869,753 1,638,249 29,289,963
2040 11,182,576 3,355,500 14,570,851 1,714,232 30,823,159
2050 10,766,622 3,366,528 16,191,150 1,728,206 32,052,506
Assuming Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 2000-2010
2010 11,397,345 2,886,825 9,460,921 1,400,470 25,145,561
2020 11,752,530 3,295,198 12,031,059 1,825,130 28,903,917
2030 11,850,180 3,658,997 15,082,058 2,309,763 32,900,998
2040 11,676,157 3,951,909 18,489,803 2,881,525 36,999,394
2050 11,376,576 4,182,155 22,268,390 3,483,178 41,310,299
Assuming Net Migration Equal to 2000-2010
2010 11,397,345 2,886,825 9,460,921 1,400,470 25,145,561
2020 11,931,815 3,477,928 13,003,159 2,170,409 30,583,311
2030 12,211,664 4,080,453 17,702,132 3,288,536 37,282,785
2040 12,194,151 4,653,725 23,514,974 4,953,861 45,316,711
2050 12,024,913 5,195,861 30,701,208 7,283,548 55,205,530
1NH refers to Non-Hispanic; values shown are only for the non-Hispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics
of all races. 2NH Asian & Other category includes non-Hispanic persons who identify themselves as belonging to two or more race groups.
Percent of the Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projected Through 2050
Under Alternative Assumptions of Age and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Rates of Net
Migration for the State of Texas
Year NH1 White NH Black Hispanic
NH Asian
& Other2 Total
Assuming Zero Net Migration (Scenario 0.0)
2010 45.3 11.5 37.6 5.6 100.0
2020 42.3 11.4 40.7 5.6 100.0
2030 39.3 11.2 43.9 5.6 100.0
2040 36.3 10.9 47.2 5.6 100.0
2050 33.6 10.5 50.5 5.4 100.0
Assuming Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 2000-2010 (Scenario 0.5)
2010 45.3 11.5 37.6 5.6 100.0
2020 40.7 11.4 41.6 6.3 100.0
2030 36.0 11.1 45.8 7.1 100.0
2040 31.6 10.7 50.0 7.7 100.0
2050 27.5 10.2 53.9 8.4 100.0
Assuming Net Migration Equal to 2000-2010 (Scenario 1.0)
2010 45.3 11.5 37.6 5.6 100.0
2020 39.0 11.4 42.5 7.1 100.0
2030 32.8 10.9 47.5 8.8 100.0
2040 26.9 10.3 51.9 10.9 100.0
2050 21.8 9.4 55.6 13.2 100.0
1NH refers to Non-Hispanic; values shown are only for the non-Hispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics
of all races. 2NH Asian & Other category includes non-Hispanic persons who identify themselves as belonging to two or more race groups.
Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projections of the
Population by Race/Ethnicity from 2020 to 2050 Under Alternative
Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration
for Harris County
Year NH White NH Black Hispanic
NH Asian &
Other Total
2010 1,349,646 754,258 1,671,540 317,015 4,092,459
Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration
2020 1,370,357 819,903 1,994,717 347,798 4,532,775
2030 1,342,716 858,777 2,316,580 363,946 4,882,019
2040 1,278,423 876,137 2,643,875 371,176 5,169,611
2050 1,198,102 876,475 2,946,940 370,587 5,392,104
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 2000-2010
2020 1,313,873 840,336 2,153,854 400,856 4,708,919
2030 1,232,849 901,576 2,698,721 482,625 5,315,771
2040 1,118,087 934,326 3,289,505 563,900 5,905,818
2050 998,149 945,431 3,909,739 646,530 6,499,849
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 2000-2010
2020 1,255,205 856,198 2,319,477 459,092 4,889,972
2030 1,113,765 921,946 3,099,887 637,362 5,772,960
2040 944,770 935,982 3,927,987 851,405 6,660,144
2050 784,522 905,382 4,767,431 1,115,138 7,572,473
Source: Tx. State Data Center and Hobby Center for the Study of Texas
Percent of Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projections of the
Population by Race/Ethnicity from 2020 to 2050 Under Alternative
Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for
Harris County
Year NH White NH Black Hispanic
NH Asian &
Other Total
2010 33.0 18.4 40.8 7.7 100.0
Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration
2020 30.2 18.1 44.0 7.7 100.0
2030 27.5 17.6 47.5 7.5 100.0
2040 24.7 16.9 51.1 7.2 100.0
2050 22.2 16.3 54.7 6.9 100.0
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 2000-2010
2020 27.9 17.8 45.7 8.5 100.0
2030 23.2 17.0 50.8 9.1 100.0
2040 18.9 15.8 55.7 9.5 100.0
2050 15.4 14.5 60.2 9.9 100.0
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 2000-2010
2020 25.7 17.5 47.4 9.4 100.0
2030 19.3 16.0 53.7 11.0 100.0
2040 14.2 14.1 59.0 12.8 100.0
2050 10.4 12.0 63.0 14.7 100.0
Source: Tx. State Data Center and Hobby Center for the Study of Texas
Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projections of the
Population by Race/Ethnicity from 2020 to 2050 Under Alternative
Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration
for Dallas County
Year NH White NH Black Hispanic
NH Asian &
Other Total
2010 784,693 518,732 905,940 158,774 2,368,139
Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration
2020 785,498 570,153 1,107,349 177,105 2,640,105
2030 753,645 605,355 1,318,991 186,873 2,864,864
2040 701,895 627,756 1,545,129 193,673 3,068,453
2050 648,778 640,542 1,772,394 196,091 3,257,805
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 2000-2010
2020 701,757 581,409 1,155,350 198,537 2,637,053
2030 597,468 627,910 1,435,586 231,333 2,892,297
2040 491,394 656,513 1,742,378 264,046 3,154,331
2050 401,233 671,539 2,070,126 295,884 3,438,782
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 2000-2010
2020 624,417 588,760 1,201,188 221,701 2,636,066
2030 464,572 634,100 1,538,137 285,943 2,922,752
2040 329,773 645,278 1,881,934 358,341 3,215,326
2050 231,828 625,457 2,221,784 443,121 3,522,190
Source: Tx. State Data Center and Hobby Center for the Study of Texas
Percent of Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projections of the
Population by Race/Ethnicity from 2020 to 2050 Under Alternative
Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for
Dallas County
Year NH White NH Black Hispanic
NH Asian &
Other Total
2010 33.1 21.9 38.3 6.7 100.0
Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration
2020 29.8 21.6 41.9 6.7 100.0
2030 26.3 21.1 46.0 6.5 100.0
2040 22.9 20.5 50.4 6.3 100.0
2050 19.9 19.7 54.4 6.0 100.0
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 2000-2010
2020 26.6 22.0 43.8 7.5 100.0
2030 20.7 21.7 49.6 8.0 100.0
2040 15.6 20.8 55.2 8.4 100.0
2050 11.7 19.5 60.2 8.6 100.0
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 2000-2010
2020 23.7 22.3 45.6 8.4 100.0
2030 15.9 21.7 52.6 9.8 100.0
2040 10.3 20.1 58.5 11.1 100.0
2050 6.6 17.8 63.1 12.6 100.0
Source: Tx. State Data Center and Hobby Center for the Study of Texas
Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projections of the
Population by Race/Ethnicity from 2020 to 2050 Under Alternative
Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration
for Bexar County
Year NH White NH Black Hispanic
NH Asian &
Other Total
2010 519,123 118,460 1,006,958 70,232 1,714,773
Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration
2020 528,196 128,549 1,146,274 77,163 1,880,182
2030 520,278 135,508 1,276,112 81,862 2,013,760
2040 501,507 139,706 1,389,461 84,628 2,115,302
2050 481,423 143,029 1,486,500 84,692 2,195,644
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 2000-2010
2020 525,902 136,229 1,217,709 94,201 1,974,041
2030 516,916 152,390 1,439,718 122,526 2,231,550
2040 493,614 165,672 1,654,245 154,723 2,468,254
2050 469,414 177,610 1,860,268 188,376 2,695,668
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 2000-2010
2020 522,129 143,464 1,285,885 114,371 2,065,849
2030 505,748 166,495 1,590,232 183,992 2,446,467
2040 469,453 184,464 1,875,503 287,647 2,817,067
2050 432,051 195,931 2,122,756 430,044 3,180,782
Source: Tx. State Data Center and Hobby Center for the Study of Texas
Percent of Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projections of the
Population by Race/Ethnicity from 2020 to 2050 Under Alternative
Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for
Bexar County
Year NH White NH Black Hispanic
NH Asian &
Other Total
2010 30.3 6.9 58.7 4.1 100.0
Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration
2020 28.1 6.8 61.0 4.1 100.0
2030 25.8 6.7 63.4 4.1 100.0
2040 23.7 6.6 65.7 4.0 100.0
2050 21.9 6.5 67.7 3.9 100.0
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 2000-2010
2020 26.6 6.9 61.7 4.8 100.0
2030 23.2 6.8 64.5 5.5 100.0
2040 20.0 6.7 67.0 6.3 100.0
2050 17.4 6.6 69.0 7.0 100.0
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 2000-2010
2020 25.3 6.9 62.2 5.5 100.0
2030 20.7 6.8 65.0 7.5 100.0
2040 16.7 6.5 66.6 10.2 100.0
2050 13.6 6.2 66.7 13.5 100.0
Source: Tx. State Data Center and Hobby Center for the Study of Texas
Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projections of the
Population by Race/Ethnicity from 2020 to 2050 Under Alternative
Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration
for Travis County
Year NH White NH Black Hispanic
NH Asian &
Other Total
2010 517,644 82,805 342,766 81,051 1,024,266
Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration
2020 542,467 88,465 411,771 90,150 1,132,853
2030 536,215 91,785 478,734 95,689 1,202,423
2040 513,780 92,461 549,628 100,435 1,256,304
2050 486,487 91,175 616,939 102,802 1,297,403
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 2000-2010
2020 564,581 90,350 439,296 106,656 1,200,883
2030 573,841 95,516 545,978 132,872 1,348,207
2040 558,255 97,481 666,649 162,469 1,484,854
2050 545,614 96,850 794,234 194,266 1,630,964
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 2000-2010
2020 588,721 91,589 467,601 125,349 1,273,260
2030 614,740 96,704 614,488 182,710 1,508,642
2040 598,425 96,434 777,758 260,243 1,732,860
2050 591,906 91,337 944,620 362,957 1,990,820
Source: Tx. State Data Center and Hobby Center for the Study of Texas
Percent of Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projections of the
Population by Race/Ethnicity from 2020 to 2050 Under Alternative
Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for
Travis County
Year NH White NH Black Hispanic
NH Asian &
Other Total
2010 50.5 8.1 33.5 7.9 100.0
Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration
2020 47.9 7.8 36.3 8.0 100.0
2030 44.6 7.6 39.8 8.0 100.0
2040 40.9 7.4 43.7 8.0 100.0
2050 37.5 7.0 47.6 7.9 100.0
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 2000-2010
2020 47.0 7.5 36.6 8.9 100.0
2030 42.6 7.1 40.5 9.9 100.0
2040 37.6 6.6 44.9 10.9 100.0
2050 33.5 5.9 48.7 11.9 100.0
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 2000-2010
2020 46.2 7.2 36.7 9.8 100.0
2030 40.7 6.4 40.7 12.1 100.0
2040 34.5 5.6 44.9 15.0 100.0
2050 29.7 4.6 47.4 18.2 100.0
Source: Tx. State Data Center and Hobby Center for the Study of Texas
HEALTH & HEALTHCARE
NH White, 55.5
NH Black, 12.8
Hispanic, 27.3
NH Asian & Other,
4.4
NH White, 28.1
NH Black, 12Hispanic,
47.9
NH Asian & Other,
12
2010 2050
Incidences of Diseases and Disorders by
Race/Ethnicity (%) in 2010 and Projected to
2050
NH White, 47.9
NH Black,
9.8
Hispanic, 32.9
NH Asian & Other, 9.4
NH White, 75.6
NH Black, 7.2 Hispanic,
14.7
NH Asian & Other,
2.5
2010 2050
Cancer Prevalence by Race/Ethnicity (%)
in 2010 and Projected to 2050
TEXAS EDUCATION
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.
https://www.bls.gov/emp/chart-unemployment-earnings-education.htm
57
Mean Household Income by Race/Ethnicity,
Educational Attainment, and Occupation In Texas in 2010
Occupations
Less Than
High School
High School
/GED
Bachelor's
Degree
Graduate/
Prof Degree
NH White
Managerial & Professional $ 72,446 $ 84,504 $ 120,792 $ 149,819
Technical, Sales, & Admin. 52,930 64,179 112,843 130,471
Precision Prod., Craft, & Repairers 55,079 68,247 94,875 119,057
Operatives and Laborers 48,819 61,211 77,581 89,720
Total 50,533 64,975 114,698 144,714
NH Black
Managerial & Professional $ 47,483 $ 52,186 $ 84,758 $ 99,073
Technical, Sales, & Admin. 33,980 43,933 75,416 80,852
Precision Prod., Craft, & Repairers 42,767 53,192 82,885 69,805
Operatives and Laborers 37,811 46,296 66,181 63,707
Total 31,072 42,465 78,933 94,490
Hispanic
Managerial & Professional $ 52,178 $ 61,992 $ 88,036 $ 116,400
Technical, Sales, & Admin. 40,131 50,127 81,005 91,155
Precision Prod., Craft, & Repairers 42,302 51,527 63,695 63,345
Operatives and Laborers 41,273 47,455 54,282 57,806
Total 38,221 47,760 81,548 108,473
NH Asian & Other
Managerial & Professional $ 84,172 $ 73,016 $ 103,737 $ 130,603
Technical, Sales, & Admin. 52,764 60,719 86,039 105,469
Precision Prod., Craft, & Repairers 54,594 63,451 70,778 92,041
Operatives and Laborers 47,939 49,015 60,895 65,074
Total 50,815 55,496 93,474 123,035
Source: Ruggles et al. 2010; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2010 Public Use Microdata Sample, 2011.
Total Public Education (All Levels) and Public Elementary and Secondary School
Enrollment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projected to 2050 Using the
Projections That Assume 2000–2010 Rates of Net Migration for Texas
Year NHa White NH Black Hispanic
NH Asian
& Other Total
Total Public Education (All Levels)*
2010 2,137,393 832,202 2,805,785 348,791 6,124,171
2020 2,109,148 874,294 3,490,796 533,046 7,007,284
2030 2,128,376 955,194 4,428,574 682,196 8,194,340
2040 2,037,804 1,028,997 5,778,539 973,986 9,819,326
2050 1,979,109 1,095,342 7,207,206 1,469,755 11,751,412
Public Elementary and Secondary Schools
2010 1,547,693 632,401 2,398,684 269,066 4,847,844
2020 1,548,792 646,756 2,917,449 406,755 5,519,752
2030 1,577,470 706,263 3,715,984 480,533 6,480,250
2040 1,479,111 754,173 4,865,439 726,452 7,825,175
2050 1,446,198 798,125 6,012,677 1,109,443 9,366,443Source: Projections by the authors and 2010 data and rates derived from Texas Education Agency, Enrollment in Texas Public
Schools 2011-2012, 2011; Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, Demographic Data for Public Community College and
University Students for 1980-2010, 2011.*Excludes public health related educational institutions.
Percent of Total Public Education (All Levels), Public Elementary and
Secondary School Enrollment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and
Projected to 2050 Using the Projections That Assume 2000–2010 Rates of
Net Migration for Texas
Year NH White NH Black Hispanic
NH Asian
& Other
Total Public Education (All Levels)*
2010 34.9 13.6 45.8 5.7
2020 30.1 12.5 49.8 7.6
2030 26.0 11.7 54.0 8.3
2040 20.8 10.5 58.8 9.9
2050 16.8 9.3 61.3 12.6
Public Elementary and Secondary Schools
2010 31.9 13.0 49.5 5.6
2020 28.1 11.7 52.9 7.3
2030 24.3 10.9 57.3 7.5
2040 18.9 9.6 62.2 9.3
2050 15.4 8.5 64.2 11.9Source: Projections by the authors and 2010 data and rates derived from Texas Education Agency, Demographic Data
for Public School Students for 1980-2010, 2011;Texas Education Agency, Enrollment in Texas Public Schools 2011-
2012, 2011; Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board 2011, Demographic Data for Public Community College and
University Students for 1980-2010, 2011.*Excludes public health related educational institutions.
Note: Enrollment data based on 2009-10 school years.
Total Public Community College, Public University, and Total Public
College and University Enrollment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2010
and Projected to 2050 Using the Projection that Assumes 2000-2010
Age and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for Texas
Year NH White* NH Black Hispanic
NH Asian
& Other Total
Public Community Colleges
2010 314,976 130,786 263,600 37,261 746,623
2020 299,721 149,167 370,868 58,999 878,755
2030 296,231 163,939 459,618 92,693 1,012,481
2040 297,987 181,123 590,855 117,643 1,187,608
2050 285,152 196,248 771,788 170,627 1,423,815
Public Universities
2010 274,724 69,015 143,501 42,464 529,704
2020 260,635 78,371 202,479 67,292 608,777
2030 254,675 84,992 252,972 108,970 701,609
2040 260,706 93,701 322,245 129,891 806,543
2050 247,759 100,969 422,741 189,685 961,154
Total Public Colleges and Universities
2010 589,700 199,801 407,101 79,725 1,276,327
2020 560,356 227,538 573,347 126,291 1,487,532
2030 550,906 248,931 712,590 201,663 1,714,090
2040 558,693 274,824 913,100 247,534 1,994,151
2050 532,911 297,217 1,194,529 360,312 2,384,969* NH refers to Non-Hispanic; values for categories labeled NH are only for the Non-Hispanic persons in each race category.
Hispanic includes Hispanics of all races.
Source: Projections by the authors; and Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, 2010 Public College and University
Enrollment Database, 2012.
Percent of Public Community College, Public University, and Total Public
College and University Enrollment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and
Projected to 2050 Using the Projection that Assumes 2000-2010 Age
and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for Texas
Year NH White* NH Black HispanicNH Asian
& Other
Public Community Colleges
2010 42.2 17.5 35.3 5.0
2020 34.1 17.0 42.2 6.7
2030 29.3 16.2 45.4 9.1
2040 25.1 15.3 49.8 9.8
2050 20.0 13.8 54.2 12.0
Public Universities
2010 51.9 13.0 27.1 8.0
2020 42.8 12.9 33.3 11.0
2030 36.3 12.1 36.1 15.5
2040 32.3 11.6 40.0 16.1
2050 25.8 10.5 44.0 19.7
Total Public Colleges and Universities
2010 46.2 15.7 31.9 6.2
2020 37.7 15.3 38.5 8.5
2030 32.1 14.5 41.6 11.8
2040 28.0 13.8 45.8 12.4
2050 22.3 12.5 50.1 15.1Note: Enrollment data based upon 2009-10 school years.
* NH refers to Non-Hispanic; values for categories labeled NH are only for the Non-Hispanic persons in each race category.
Hispanic includes Hispanics of all races.
Source: Projections by the authors; and Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, 2010 Public College and University
Enrollment Database, 2012.
Percent of All Households in Poverty in 2010 and Projected for
2050 Under Alternative Assumptions of Socioeconomic Closure
Between Minority and NonHispanic White Households
17.8
20.920.3
11.9
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Current Assuming Race/EthnicitySpecific Rates
Avg. Rates of Closure,1980-2010
Full Closure to WhiteRates for 2050
20502010
The mark of a truly educated
man is to be moved deeply by
statistics.
George Bernard Shaw