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Pöyry Independent Market Report for Poland is the definitive source for long-term wholesale price projections and for understanding the Polish market's future design
Polish Wholesale Electricity Market Report – electricity market expertise delivered to you
JANUARY 2018 EDITION
MODELLING APPROACH
BID3 is Pöyry’s power market model which uses advanced mathematical techniques to model all parts of the electricity system. This includes hourly projections of market prices, dispatch of power stations, emissions, interconnector flows and future capacity evolution.
Based on historically consistent patterns of electricity demand, wind speed, solar irradiation and other variables, BID3 is able to assess the value of all power market assets, such as variable renewables, peaking plant, storage technologies, or the value of interconnection.
The BID3 electricity market model is available to purchase, and is used by generators, regulators and TSOs on a daily basis.
PÖYRY IN POLANDPöyry Management Consulting has been active for numerous years in the Polish market, across the gas and electricity sectors. We are one of the leading sources of market expertise and long-term price projections, used extensively by major energy groups, project developers and financial institutions to assess the economics of their current and prospective investments.KEY BENEFITSThe Pöyry Independent Market Report (PIMR) for Poland contains:• a comprehensive review of the Polish market
rules, key players and historic trends;• detailed discussions on the current market and
regulatory issues for thermal and/or renewable generators;
• electricity demand, fuel and CO2 price projections;• long-term wholesale price projections out to 2040 under three scenarios, which span a range of price outcomes; • the progression of clean spark and dark spreads;• assessment of the price impact of the Capacity
Market alongside with projections of clearing prices for future capacity auctions;
• an outlook on Green Certificate (GC) prices out to 2031; and
•
IS 2018 A TURNING POINT FOR THE POLISH MARKET?In a few years from now, it is likely that 2018 will be regarded as a turning point for the Polish electricity market. First of all, market prices recovered on the back of higher fuel and carbon prices for the first time in years, and are expected to consolidate further, especially in light of developments in the carbon EU-ETS market. Secondly, a wave of new policies is taking effect, and these may transform the generation mix that the country is currently relying on. In particular:• a new (increased) target capacity for onshore wind and solar Contracts-for-Difference (CfDs) are to be finally auctioned after years of sluggish growth in the sector;• interesting developments are also taking place in
the offshore wind space, where investments may soon materialise; finally
• in Q4 2018 the first Capacity Market auctions for the 2021-23 delivery years will take place after extensive negotiations between the Polish Government, the EC, and stakeholders. This market may well attract new players, and potentially shift the economics in favour of technologies other than just lignite and coal.
All of the above is discussed in more detail in our report.
OUR OFFERINGSThe Polish Wholesale Electricity & Renewables Market Report is updated annually; however, we offer updates on our long-term price projections on a quarterly basis, released in the form of a Quarterly Update Note containing latest price projections and a detailed commentary on recent market and regulatory changes.In Poland, we also offer various bespoke services, including but not limited to:• bespoke price projections to match clients’ own
view of future regulation and market drivers (e.g. fuels / carbon, penetration of RES, deployment of storage batteries, EVs, etc.);
• project-specific (gross margin) valuations for thermal and renewable assets, including capture prices for specific renewable projects and/or portfolios; • assessment of business models of ‘new’
technologies, such as battery storage, or DSR; • support in the capacity payment auctions and
qualification process; and• contract negotiation and/or appraisal, such as
utility or corporate PPAs.
illustrations of the typical discounts to the market price (capture price) for wind and solar generators.
Photo: colourbox.com
PÖYRY INDEPENDENT MARKET REPORTS
Pöyry Management Consulting produces Pöyry Independent Market Reports for electricity, gas and green certificate markets across Europe, the Americas and Asia.
Pöyry Management Consulting provides leading-edge consulting and advisory services covering the whole value chain in energy, forest and other process industries. Our energy practice is the leading provider of strategic, commercial, regulatory and policy advice to Europe’s energy markets.
Our team of energy specialists offers unparalleled expertise in the rapidly changing energy sector.
Pöyry is an international consulting and engineering company. We serve clients across power generation, transmission & distribution, forest industry, biorefining & chemicals, mining & metals, infrastructure and water & environment. Together, we deliver smart solutions and work with the latest digital innovations. Pöyry’s net sales in 2017 were EUR 522 million. The company’s shares are quoted on Nasdaq Helsinki. Approximately 5500 experts. 40 countries. 115 offices.
Contact Pöyry for more information:
Francesca Tedeschi [email protected]
Natalia Wisniewska [email protected]
Pöyry Management Consulting (UK) Ltd. King Charles House, Park End St, Oxford OX1 1JD, UK +44 (0)1865 722660
Registered No. 2573801
www.poyry.com/pimr
AMERICAN MARKETS EUROPEAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
Pöyry Independent Market Reports available
Market Report available on request
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