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Political Extremism Index: An objective tool for trackingand assessing the level of political extremism in the EU
Pinchas LandauOctober 2015
Summary
Political extremism in Europe is widely perceived to be on the rise
However, no tool is available to provide an objective, quantitative measure of extremism
The Political Extremism Index (PEI) is such a measure, for both individual countries and multilateral groupings (EU, eurozone, etc.)
PEI findings show that the level of extremism doubled in the period 2008-2013
PEI confirms that extremism is strongly correlated with unemployment, reacting with a lag
The analytical problem – and its solution
Political Extremism Index
The Analytical Problem:Social-political-cultural assessment
Until now: Sporadic approach Based on gut feelings Driven by incidental news items
We need a tool to measure extremism: Quantitative (how much) and qualitative (how bad) Continent-wide and country-specific Enables data-based, up-to-date reporting and
analysis Predictive capability?
The Analytical Solution:Political Extremism Index (PEI)
Monitors the European political landscape via parliamentary election results
Constructed for various groupings: Pre- 1994 (eastward expansion) EU membership (15
countries) Current eurozone membership (19 countries) Current EU membership (28 countries) EU + Switzerland and Norway (ex-EU West European countries)
Regional groups Weighted for relative size within grouping Combines vote-share for extreme left and
right
Methodology: assumptions, data collection, interpretation
Political Extremism Index
Methodological Assumptions European countries hold free and fair elections Politics reliably expresses social trends Political parties across countries can be
grouped into general categories Relative population is the best/ simplest
method to weight each country when calculating the index for a group of countries
Extreme parties of both right and left serve as expressions of radical protest against mainstream
‘Green’ parties are diverse across countries, hence best placed in a separate category
Example – Quarterly Report Q3 2013
Italy is highlighted because elections were held this quarter.
The sum of vote percentage for both extreme right and extreme left parties = Extremism Index.
The Extremism Index value is calculated for 5 groupings:1. EU27+: Full EU + Norway and Switzerland2. EU27: Full EU.3. EZ: Eurozone.4. EZ exG: Eurozone excluding Germany5. EU15: Pre-eastward expansion EU.
For a country in which an election was held during the quarter, we show a before/after summary, as well as a brief note on the result.
Extreme Right Moderate Right Center Moderate Left Extreme Left Green Others2008 0.0 PPL+MPA+UDL+LN IDV PD+PSI SA 0.02013 MCS PDL+LN+FDI CD+SC+UDC PD+SEL RC 0.0 SVP+GS+abroad2008 0.0 PN 0.0 PL 0.0 AD 0.62013 0.0 PN 0.0 PL 0.0 0.0 1.92009 ATAKA GERB+SDS+DSB+RZS+NDSV EDEK BSP 0.0 0.0 4.82013 ATAKA GERB+SDS+DSB+RZS DPS BSP 0.0 0.0 18.32009 0.0 FRP+H+KRF SP AP+V SV 0.0 2.72013 0.0 FRP+H+KRF SP AP+V SV MDG 2.92009 0.0 CDU+CSU+FDP 0.0 SPD Linke Grune 6.02013 0.0 CDU+CSU+FDP 0.0 SPD Linke Grune AFD + others2008 BZO+FPO OVP 0.0 SPO 0.0 Grune 6.12013 FPO+BZO+FRANK OVP NEOS SPO 0.0 Grune 2.02009 0.0 CSV+DP+ADR 0.0 LSAP+LENK 0.0 GRENG 2.32013 0.0 CSV+DP+ADR 0.0 LSAP+LENK 0.0 GRENG 6.12010 0.0 ODS+TOP90+VV+KDU 0.0 CSSD KSCM SZ 12.02013 USVIT ANO+TOP90+ODS+KDU 0.0 CSSD KSCM 0.0 12.5
Change in Parliamentary Makeup in 2013
Italy 59,685,227 11.65%
Country Population* % in EU27+** Elctn% of Parliament Votes
Malta 421,364 0.08%
Bulgaria 7,284,552 1.42%
Norway 5,051,275 0.99%
Germany 80,523,746 15.72%
Czech Republic 10,516,125 2.05%
Austria 8,451,860 1.65%
Luxembourg 537,039 0.10%
Results by PartyLabelling dilemmas
Track which parties belong in each ideological category…
Country Population*
% in EU27+** Elctn
% of Parliament Votes%
Votes for
Extreme
Parties
Extreme Right
Moderate Right
CenterModerate Left
Extreme Left
Green Others
Hungary
9,878,689
1.95%2010 16.7 55.4 19.3
7.5 1.1 16.7
2014 20.5 44.5 26.0 5.3 3.7 20.5
Belgium
11,244,995
2.12%2010 8.2 41.3 14.1 23.0 1.9
9.1 2.4 10.1
2014 3.7 45.2 14.8 20.5 3.7 8.6 3.5 7.4
Slovenia
2,060,865
0.40%2011 1.8 46.4 41.2
10.6 1.8
2014 2.2 30.9 49.1 15.0 2.8 2.2
Sweden 9,644,864
1.82%2010 5.7 35.7 13.7 30.7 5.6
7.3 1.3 11.3
2014 12.9 27.8 11.5 31.2 5.7 6.8 4.1 18.6
Bulgaria
7,243,907
1.42%2013 7.3
36.5 11.3 26.6 18.3 7.3
2014 17.5 41.6 14.8 19.6 6.5 17.5
Latvia 2,004,702
0.40%2011 13.9
42.0 12.2 28.4 0.0 3.5 13.9
2014 16.6 28.8 26.2 23.0 5.4 16.6
Change in Parliamentary Makeup in 2014
2001Q4
2007Q4
2009Q2
2009Q4
2010Q2
2010Q4
2011Q2
2011Q4
2012Q2
2012Q4
2013Q2
2013Q4
2014Q2
2014Q4
2015Q26
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22EU27+* EU27* EU15 EUROZONE EUROZONE exGermany
2001-2007EUROZONE
* In 2013 Croatia became the 28th EU Member State, but data for Croatia is not yet included.
France
Italy
Germany
Germany
UK
Extremism Index 2009-2015, Quarterly Data
The initial hypothesis
Economic crisis leads to rising unemployment (particularly among youths)
Unemployment creates frustration and thirst for change
In a democratic regime, change is achieved through the ballot-box
Therefore, unemployment drives an increase in political extremism by way of a protest vote
Anti-Semitism is (also) an expression of political extremism; its intensity varies in line with the general level of political extremism
Empirical findings
At the single-country level: ▪ Swings in levels of extremism seem related to the
economic cycle and prove to be closely related to changes in the rate of unemployment (with lags)
▪ Most countries have idiosyncratic features that explain the relative level of extremism and specific developments
▪ Some countries are exceptions (for whatever reason)…▪ …such as, seemingly, the UK
At the EU/ eurozone level:▪ The relationship with unemployment is clear-cut, as
exceptions are ‘lost in the crowd’
Extremism comes to the UK
1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 20190%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%18%20%
UK Extremism Index
UK - Distribution of Votes (Parliamentary Elections) % Votes for Extreme Parties
Extreme Right
Moderate Right Center Moderate
Left Extreme Left Green Others
Parties in this category UKIP+BNP
CON+DUP+UUP
LD+APNI LAB+SDLP SNP+SF+RES GP PC+others
2005 3.0 33.8 22.2 35.7 2.5 1.0 1.8 5.5
2010 5.0 37.0 23.1 29.4 2.3 0.9 2.3 7.3
2015 12.6 37.9 8.1 30.7 5.3 3.8 1.6 17.9
