Assoc. Prof. Kristin R. Laurens

E - mail: Kristin.Laurens@acu.edu.au

Data Linkage Symposium, 15 November 2017

Pervasive influence of parental offending on offspring development

in early and middle childhood:

Evidence from the NSW Child Development Study

Intergenerational transmission of offending• Offending parents confer increased risk of offspring juvenile delinquency and adulthood

offending

• Most intergenerational studies use small samples (often high - risk/selected, and sometimes without comparison/control group) and retrospective design

• Focus is typically on fathers (little data on mothers)

• Little research in early (0 - 6 years) and middle childhood (6 - 12 years):• offspring more likely to be aggressive and have conduct problems in childhood• also some evidence for internalizing problems• mixed evidence on cognitive outcomes• what about continuity of problems during childhood?

• How pervasive are the difficulties? (are there a broader range of childhood targets for preventative intervention that might mitigate adverse outcomes?)

Child Birth

~5 years ~11 years

Parental health, mental health and justice records

Childhood health and wellbeing outcomes

EARLY CHILDHOOD

Australian Early Development Census (AEDC)

Teacher - rated early childhooddevelopmental functioning

Middle Childhood SurveyChild self - reported

mental health and wellbeing

RECORD LINKAGES

CHILD ASSESSMENTS

Child protection, health, education, and justice records

MIDDLE CHILDHOOD ADOLESCENCE

The NSW Child Development Study19

94

2004

2006

2005

2008

2007

2000

2009- -

2010

2013

2014

2012

2015

2003

2002

2001

2011

2016

2017

Health Records

Perinatal (Midwives) Data Emergency Department Data Admitted Patient Data Mental Health Ambulatory Data Mental Health Outcome and Assessment

Toolkit Pharmaceutical Drugs of Addiction

Subsystem

Education Records

• Best Start Kindergarten Assessment (Kindergarten)

• NAPLAN (Year 3 and 5)• Suspensions and Expulsions• Student Enrolment Records• Survey of School Programs for

Emotional and Social Health

Child Development Records

• Australian Early Development Census (Kindergarten)

• NSW - CDS Middle Childhood Survey (Year 6)

Crime & Police Records

Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research data

COPS data

Community ServicesRecords

Case Management System Child Protection Out of Home Care Early Intervention Programs:

Brighter Futures; Strengthening Families

NSW-CDS Record Linkage 2 (2017)

Children (N=91 635)

Mothers (N=75 184)

Fathers (N=72 772)

Years n % Years n % n %NSW Registry of Births, Deaths and Marriages

Birth registrations 2000 - 2006 76 436 83.4 2000 - 2006 75 133 82.0 72 688 79.3Death registrations 2000 - 2016 38 <0.1 2000 - 2016 370 0.4 901 1.0

Health Cause of Death Unit Record File 2000 - 2013 - - 2000 - 2013 239 0.3 657 0.7Perinatal Data Collection 2000 - 2006 76 268 83.2 2000 - 2006 74 763 81.6 -Emergency Department Data Collection 2005 - 2016 71 169 77.7 2005 - 2016 49 096 53.6 49 268 53.8Admitted Patients Data Collection 2001 - 2016 80 638 88.0 2001 - 2016 74 752 81.6 45 814 50.0Mental Health Ambulatory Data Collection 2005 - 2016 3 611 3.9 2005 - 2015 7 900 8.6 5 390 5.9Pharmaceutical Drugs of Addictions Subsystem 2000 - 2015 3 480 3.8 2000 - 2015 1 187 1.3 1 490 1.6Mental Health Outcomes and Assessment Toolkit 2001 - 2015 2 063 2.3 2001 - 2015 4 231 4.6 3 313 3.6

Education Best Start Kindergarten Assessment 2009 40 245 43.9School Enrolment Records 2009 - 2015 68 139 74.4School Suspension/Expulsion Records National Assessment Program Literacy and Numeracy (Years 3 & 5) 2012; 2014 82 652 90.2

Child Protection NSW Department of Family and Community Services Case Management System (KiDS) 2001 - 2015 24 720 27.0

Criminal offendingBureau of Crime Statistics and Research 2010 - 2015 132 0.1 1994 - 2015 8 485 9.3 21 298 23.2

RL2 (2017) – Available data (preliminary figures only):

NSW Child Development Study: Record Linkage 1

http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen - 2015 - 009023

Middle Childhood Survey 2015

http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen - 2017 - 016244

Data Linkage (this project)

Multi - agency, intergenerational data linkage of population records:

• NSW Register of Births, Deaths, and Marriages – Birth Registrations (1 JAN 2000 - 31 DEC 2006): parent linkage

• NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (BOCSAR) re - offending records (1 JAN 1994 - 31 DEC 2009): information on charges before Local, District, Supreme, and Children’s Criminal Courts

• Australian Early Development Census 2009 (age 5 years)

• Middle Childhood Survey 2015 (age 11 years)

Method: Sample selection

EXCLUDEDNSW - CDS cohort (n = 87,026)

14,781 children without linked parental records (child’s birth not registered in NSW)

(n = 72,245)3,129 children with special needs (chronicmedical, physical, or intellectual disability requiring special assistance) – AEDC unavailable

(n = 69,116)

46,051 children without MCS data

Middle childhood sample (n = 20,426)

Early childhood sample (n = 66,477)

2,639 children with a parental history of non -criminal Regulation court attendances only

Exposures, Outcomes, Covariates (p. 1)

EXPOSURES:• MATERNAL; PATERNAL

• ANY OFFENDING (dichotomous) - any offence within the Australian Standard Offence Classification (2008)

• VIOLENT OFFENDING (dichotomous) - murder, attempted murder, manslaughter, assault, kidnapping, false imprisonment, aggravated robbery, riot and affray

AGE 5 YEARS OUTCOMES:

• VULNERABILITY ON AEDC DOMAINS (bottom ~10% nationally) - social competence (SOC); emotional maturity (EMOT); language and cognitive skills (COGN); communication skills and general knowledge (COMM); physical health and wellbeing (PHYS)

• NUMBER OF DOMAINS ON WHICH CHILDREN SCORED IN VULNERABLE RANGE (0 - 5)

Exposures, Outcomes, Covariates (p. 2)LONGITUDINAL (AGE 5 TO 11 YEARS) OUTCOMES:

• FOUR LEVELS: (1 = reference) No problems at early or middle childhood; (2) problems at early and middle childhood; (3) problems in early childhood only; (4) problems in middle childhood only

• VULNERABILITY ON AEDC SUBDOMAINS (bottom ~10%) – anxious and fearful behaviour (EMOT), aggressive behaviour (COND), hyperactive and inattentive behaviour (ATTEN)

• ABNORMAL ON STRENGTHS AND DIFFICULTIES (SDQ) PSYCHOPATHOLOGY SCALES (bottom ~10% ): emotional symptoms (EMOT), conduct problems (COND), hyperactivity - inattention (ATTEN)

COVARIATES: • child sex• child age• child socio-economic disadvantage (area indicator; SEIFA)• Child English as second language• maternal age at birth

Anxious & fearful behaviour (AEDC)• Child appears worried• Child cries a lot

Aggressive behaviour (AEDC)• Child takes things that do not belong to

him/her• Child is disobedient

Hyperactive & inattentive behaviour (AEDC)• Child can’t sit still, is restless• Child is impulsive, acts without thinking

Emotional Symptoms (SDQ)• I worry a lot• I get upset easily

Conduct Problems (SDQ)• I take things that are not mine from home, school

or elsewhere• I usually do as I am told (reverse scored)

Hyperactivity - Inattention (SDQ)• I am restless, I cannot stay still for long• I think before I do things

AEDC (5 years; teacher) MCS (11 years; self)

AEDC Domains: Any offending

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

COGN(5.4%)

COMM(8.3%)

SOC(8.3%)

PHYS(8.1%)

EMOT(7.1%)

ADJU

STED

OR

(95%

CI)

AEDC DOMAIN

Paternal (25.5%) Maternal (8.5%)

Logistic regression

AEDC domains: Violent offending

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

COGN(5.4%)

COMM(8.3%)

SOC(8.3%)

PHYS(8.1%)

EMOT(7.1%)

ADJU

STED

OR

(95%

CI)

AEDC DOMAIN

Paternal (9.9%) Maternal (2.5%)

Logistic regression

Number of AEDC domains vulnerable: Any offending

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

ONE(10.5%)

TWO(4.9%)

THREE(2.5%)

FOUR(1.5%)

FIVE(0.7%)

ADJU

STED

OR

(95%

CI)

NUMBER OF AEDC DOMAINS VULNERABLE

Paternal (25.5%) Maternal (8.5%)

Multinomial regression

Number of AEDC domains vulnerable: Violent offending

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

ONE (10.5%) TWO (4.9%) THREE OR MORE (4.7%)

ADJU

STED

OR

(95%

CI)

NUMBER OF AEDC DOMAINS VULNERABLE

Paternal (9.9%) Maternal (2.5%)

Multinomial regression

Age 5 years outcomes

http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0033291716003007

Trajectories: Any offending

Multinomial regression

Slide removed (further analysis in progress)

Contact speaker for update

Trajectories: Violent offending

Multinomial regression

Slide removed (further analysis in progress)

Contact speaker for update

LimitationsUnderestimates effect of crime

- Offence records prior to 1994 not captured (excludes peak age of offending for most parents in the cohort)

Does not include information about non - charged offences- official data underestimates delinquent acts/individuals –> especially problematic if this

underestimation is selective (probability of getting caught not equal for all persons; but, we control some demographics).

Data collected for administrative (not research) purposes - > potential misclassification errors

Absence of useful control variables (e.g., parental contact with child, individual - level SES data, housing, etc.)

Work ongoing to differentiate proximal and distal impacts (timing) of parental offending occurring at particular developmental periods

ConclusionsHistory of any parental offending increases risks of poor outcomes for offspring; violent offending

associated with larger magnitude of effect

Pervasive effects across domains; but, Language and Cognitive Skills particularly affected among early childhood domains; Conduct Problems (relative to inattention and emotional problems) trajectories notable

Maternal offending had greater effect on early childhood functioning than paternal offending history; more equivalent increases in risk evident on the early - middle childhood trajectories

Dose - dependent effects (increasing magnitude of effect as number of vulnerable domains increases): Risk of pervasive difficulties more likely than difficulties specific to a single domain (greatest magnitude of effect of any history of parental offending on all five AEDC domains)

Identifies a range of developmental targets for early preventative interventions that might avert or mitigate a variety of adolescent and adult outcomes, including delinquency and offending

Acknowledgements• Vaughan J. Carr, Melissa J. Green, Kimberlie Dean, Stacy Tzoumakis, Tyson Whitten, Sinali

Kaggodaarachchi, Maina Kariuki, Felicity Harris, and NSW-CDS Scientific Committee

Financial Support:• Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (FT170100294) and Linkage Project (LP110100150)• National Health and Medical Research Council (APP1058652)• Australian Rotary Health (RG104090)• Australian Institute of Criminology (19/14-15)

This research was conducted using population data owned by the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and

Research, Department of Education, NSW Registry of Births, Deaths and Marriages, and the Australian

Bureau of Statistics; however, the information and views contained in this study do not necessarily, or at

all, reflect the views or information held by these Departments.