Part 2: Planning Chapter 4 Foundations of Decision Making 決策的基礎

Part 2: PlanningPart 2: Planning

Chapter 4 Foundations of Decision Making

Chapter 4 Foundations of Decision Making

決策的基礎決策的基礎

4–2 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008

Learning Objectives

1. Decision-making process

2. Rational decision-making model

3. Define certainty, risk, and uncertainty

4. Bounded-rational decision maker

5. Types of decision problems and decisions

6. Decision-making styles

7. Group Decision Making


決策決策（ Decision Making ）的涵義的涵義•指個人或組織為解決某項問題以達成特定目標，就兩個或兩個以上之方案做一選擇。•不論待人或處事，經常在做各種決策。

決策乃是人生的一部份決策是影響組織成敗興衰的關鍵

•決策可視為問題解決（ Problem Solving）。


經常使用的決策方法經常使用的決策方法

一、僅憑個人的直覺判斷而遽下決定

四、比較分析

三、與同學、同事、親友諮商或召開會議

二、求神拜佛禱告或籤卜卦


Decision-making

• Decision-making processA set of eight steps that includes identifying a

problem, selecting a solution, and evaluating the effectiveness of the solution

• ProblemA discrepancy between an existing and a desired

state of affairs

• Decision criteria 決策參考依據項目（決策準繩）Factors that are relevant in a decision


The Decision-Making Process

EXHIBIT 4.2


Examples of Planning-Function Decisions

1. What are the organization’s long-term objectives?

2. What strategies will best achieve those objectives?

3. What should the organization’s short-term objectives be?

4. What is the most efficient means of completing tasks?

5. What might the competition be considering?

6. What budgets are needed to complete department tasks?

7. How difficult should individual goals be?


Criteria 項目 and Weight 加權 in Car-Buying Decision (Scale of 1 to 10)

EXHIBIT 4.3

CRITERION WEIGHT

Price 10

Interior comfort 8

Durability 5

Repair record 5

Performance 3

Handling 1


Assessment of Car Alternatives

EXHIBIT 4.4

INITIAL INTERIOR DURA- REPAIRALTERNATIVES PRICE COMFORT BILITY RECORD PERFORMANCE HANDLING TOTAL

Jeep Cherokee 2 10 8 7 5 5 37

Ford Mustang 9 6 5 6 8 6 40

Mercedes C230 8 5 6 6 4 6 35

Pontiac Grand Am 9 5 6 7 6 5 38

Mazda Tribute 5 6 9 10 7 7 44

Dodge Durango 10 5 6 4 3 3 31

Volvo S60 4 8 7 6 8 9 42

Isuzu Axiom 7 6 8 6 5 6 38

BMW 325 9 7 6 4 4 7 37

Audi A6 5 8 5 4 10 10 42

Toyota Camry 6 5 10 10 6 6 43

Volkswagen Passat 8 6 6 5 7 8 40


Weighting of Vehicles (Assessment Criteria X Criteria Weight)

EXHIBIT 4.5


練習：決策參考項目 (Criteria) 與權重(weight)

問題 :

1. 尋找我人生的最佳伴侶2. 尋找最佳企業就職3. 企業（如長大電算中心）尋找職場最佳新鮮人


Decision-making (cont’d)

• Decision implementation 決策執行Putting a decision into action; includes conveying

the decision to the persons who will be affected by it and getting their commitment to it

• Evaluation of Decision Effectiveness 評估決策效能如何知道決策好壞？和執行有何關係？


Rational( 理性 ) decision that is objective and logical.


Is information available for the decision?

About the alternatives and outcomesCertainty 確定

The implication that the outcome of every possible alternative is known

Uncertainty 不確定A condition under which there is not full knowledge of the

problem and reasonable probabilities for alternative outcomes cannot be determined.

Risk 風險The probability that a particular outcome will result from a

given decision


Decision Tree （決策樹） and Expected Values（期望值） for Renting a Large or Small Retail Space

EXHIBIT QM–3


Three Decision Models

• RationalDescribes choices that are consistent and value-

maximizing within specified constraints處理所有的資訊以達成理性（幾乎不可能）。

• Bounded rationalityBehavior that is rational within the parameters of a

simplified model that captures the essential features of a problem簡化或有限的模型理性下來理性地進行其行為

• SatisficeMaking a “good enough” decision滿意的決策而非最佳的決策


Three Elements of Creativity

EXHIBIT 4.7Source: T. M. Amabile, “Motivating Creativity in Organizations,” California Management Review (Fall 1997): 43.

Creativity 創造力The ability to produce novel and useful ideas


Common Decision-making Errors

• Heuristics: Using judgmental shortcuts捷思或經驗法則Availability heuristic可獲性捷思

the tendency for people to base their judgments on information that is readily available to them

Representative heuristic代表性捷思 The tendency for people to base judgments of probability on

things with which they are familiar

• Escalation of commitment 持續增加投注 An increased commitment to a previous decision despite

negative information

To dream the impossible dream, to fight the unbeatable foe, to bear with unbearable sorrow, to run where the brave dare not go.

做難圓之夢，擊不敗之敵，忍難忍之悲，赴險懼之途

知其不可而為之


決策的迷失決策的迷失（（四不一沒有四不一沒有））

一、不察覺問題的發生或存在

二、不知方向或目標

三、不加思考

四、不會分析

五、沒有執行


How Do Problems Differ?

• Well-structured problems 結構化Straightforward, familiar, easily defined problems

• Ill-structured problems 非結構化New problems in which information is ambiguous or

incomplete

• Programmed decision 程序化決策A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine

approach

• Nonprogrammed decisions 非程序化決策Decisions that must be custom-made to solve unique

and nonrecurring problems


Programmed Decision-Making Aids

• Policy 政策 A general guide that establishes parameters for

making decisions about recurring problems

• Procedure 程序A series of interrelated sequential steps that can be

used to respond to a well-structured problem (policy implementation)

• Rule 法規An explicit statement that tells managers what they

ought or ought not to do (limits on procedural actions)


Types of Problems, Types of Decisions, and Level in the Organization

EXHIBIT 4.8


Technology And Decision Making

• Expert systems 專家系統Software that acts like an expert in analyzing and

solving ill-structured problems Use specialized knowledge about a particular problem

area rather than general knowledge Use qualitative reasoning rather than numerical

calculations Perform at a level of competence higher than that of

nonexpert humans.

• Neural networks 類神經網路Software that is designed to imitate the structure of

brain cells and connections among them


Decision-Making Styles


Four Decision Making StylesDirective style

low tolerance for ambiguity and rational way of thinking logical and efficient, make fast decisions that focus on the

short term.Analytic style

high tolerance for ambiguity and rational way of thinking need complete information before making a decision.

Conceptual style look at many alternatives, focus on the long run and often look for creative solutions.

Behavioral style think intuitively but have a low tolerance for uncertainty; open to suggestions, and concerned about the individuals

who work for them.


理性的決策方法理性的決策方法 ASSET Model

Address the right decision problem

Specify your real objective(s)

Search for better alternatives

Evaluate the alternatives

Take a wise action

選對問題

確定目標

擬定可行方案

評估各項方案

抉擇與執行


A store owner had just turned off the lights in the store when a man appeared and demanded money. The owner opened a cash register. The contents of the cash register were scooped up, and the man sped away. A policeman was notified promptly.

Please read the passage carefully:


1.故事中涉及到三個人物 : 店老闆 , 勒索男子 , 員警2.勒索者沒有把錢帶走3.店老闆燈關掉後 , 一個男子走進來了4.勒索者打開了收銀機5.勒索者拿走了收銀機裏的東西後逃離6.勒索者向店老闆要錢款7.儘管收銀機中有錢 , 但故事中沒有說有多少錢8.店老闆倒出收銀機的東西後逃走9.打開收銀機的那個人是店老闆10. 來的勒索的那個人沒有拿到錢款11. 勒索的人是個男子12. 店老闆將店內的燈關掉後 , 一男子來到

以下 12 題的答案有三種 : 正確 (Y), 不正確 (N), 不能肯定 (?)


A store owner had just turned off the lights in the store when a man appeared and demanded money. The owner opened a cash register. The contents of the cash register were scooped up, and the man sped away. A policeman was notified promptly.

一店老闆剛關上店裏的燈 , 有一男子來到勒索錢款 , 店老闆打開收銀機 , 收銀機裏的東西被倒了出來 , 然後那個男子逃走 , 一員警很快接到報案……

閱讀測驗


1.故事中涉及到三個人物 : 店老闆 , 勒索男子 , 員警 -- Y

2.勒索者沒有把錢帶走 -- ?3.店老闆燈關掉後 , 一個男子走進來了 -- Y4.勒索者打開了收銀機 -- N5.勒索者拿走了收銀機裏的東西後逃離 -- ?6.勒索者向店老闆要錢款 -- Y7.儘管收銀機中有錢 , 但故事中沒有說有多少錢 -- Y8.店老闆倒出收銀機的東西後逃走 -- ?9.打開收銀機的那個人是店老闆 -- Y10. 來的勒索的那個人沒有拿到錢款 -- ?11. 勒索的人是個男子 -- Y12. 店老闆將店內的燈關掉後 , 一男子來到 -- Y

一店老闆剛關上店裏的燈 , 有一男子來到勒索錢款 , 店老闆打開收銀機 , 收銀機裏的東西被倒了出來 , 然後那個男子逃走 , 一員警很快接到報案……


Group Decision Making

• AdvantagesMake more accurate

decisionsProvides more complete

information 完整的資訊Offers a greater diversity

of experiences and perspectives

Generates more alternatives 更多可行方案

Increases acceptance of a solution 增加接受程度

Increases the legitimacy of a decision. 增加合法性

• Disadvantages Is more time-consuming

and less efficient 費時Minority domination can

influence decision process少數壟斷

Increased pressures to conform to the group’s mindset 服從的壓力(groupthink)

Ambiguous responsibility for the outcomes of decisions 模糊的責任


When Are Groups Most Effective?

• CreativityGroups tend to be more creative than individuals.

• Acceptance of the final solutionGroups help increase the acceptance of decisions.

• Effectiveness of group decision makingGroups of five to seven members are optimal for

decision process speed and quality.


Improving Group Decision Making

• Brainstorming腦力激盪An idea-generating process that encourages

alternatives while withholding criticism

• Nominal group technique 名目群體A decision-making technique in which group

members are physically present but operate independently

• Electronic meeting電子會議 A type of nominal group technique in which

participants are linked by computer


名目群體（ Norminal Group Technique NGT ）

1. 針對特定問題，與會者先寫下主張或構想；2. 與會者逐一公開說明、討論（但不能互相批

評）3. 每位與會者對各項主張或構想分別加以排序、

評分（最好以不干擾他人之方式）4. 統計得分最高之項目（可為多數）即為最後決

定。

Documents

Part 2: Planning Chapter 4 Foundations of Decision Making 決策的基礎