PREDICTING EFFECTS ON

WATER PRODUCTIVITY

AND THE WATER

BALANCE

DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS AND MODELS FOR:

Workshop Objectives Review available assessments of present and future water availability

and use at the watershed and basin-scale and identify scope for updates to reflect the full potential of improvements in on-farm land and water management

> Inform regional decision-makers and other key stakeholders at the benchmark sites of the relevance and potential further use of outputs from decision support tools to evaluate options for improved management of land, water and livelihoods > Stimulate knowledge exchange and research collaboration amongst WLI research teams using and developing tools to support integrated water and land-use strategies with key stakeholders

Results Anticipated

Outputs> Enhanced Annual Reports, Country Research Reports and PPTs from 8 countries and regional team> Short workshop report including list of participants > Materials online for other interested researchers to benefit from

Outcomes > WLI thematic research group on decision support tools and models activated> WLI thematic research group on water use efficiency activated> Improved connection of WLI pilot testing to strategic level decision-making and improved outscaling strategies for integrated land and water management> Improved management of land, water and livelihoods in WLI countries

1. ….WHAT IS A LIVELIHOOD? (see Workshop Report on WLI Website)

2. WHAT IS AN IMPROVED LIVELIHOOD?3. HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE TO IMPROVE RURAL LIVELIHOODS?4. HOW WILL WE KNOW THAT IT IMPROVED?5. HOW WILL WE KNOW THAT THE IMPROVEMENT RESULTED FROM THE WLI PILOT TESTING ACTIVITY?

PREDICTING FUTURE WATER PRODUCTIVITY:Remaining Challenges• Scale challenge• Diversity of land and water

conditions and qualities• Diversity of cropping

patterns• Integrating crops and

livestock• Other uses of water• Water reuse• Definition and measurement

of water consumption

• (Economic aspects, prices, future uncertainties)

Use GIS to address

Use Crop Syst to address

Use GIS and SaltMod to address

Work with economists to capture

Work with farmers to identify

Define our approach (refer to FAO 66 ?)

ASSESSMENTS OF WATER BALANCE

Remaining Challenges• Integration of WLI data

elements• Scale challenges• Temporal challenges for

prediction of future water availability

• Uncertainty, variability• Data access (real and perceived)• Inter-sectoral cooperation• Some water sources less well

understood –i.e. groundwater, reusable wastewater

Assess state of knowledge & gaps

Scale down from national water balance assessments to address

Scale down from climate change assessments to address

Use statistical techniques to fillgaps and account for

Refer to existing applications of WEAP, enhance and contribute

Use SWAT to deepen understandingof complex processes in soil and water

KEY TOPICS FOR REGIONAL KNOWLEDGE EXCHANGE

Challenge• Reaching decision-makers• Modeling climatic effects in

cropping systems including trees (global climatic changes & regulation of the microclimate for improved soil and crop productivity)

• Modeling surface-groundwater interactions in rainfed and irrigated agroecosystems

• Assessing water productivity in integrated crop and livestock systems

Decision Support Tools• WEAP• AquaCrop and Crop Syst

• SWAT

• CEH Wallingford & Economic models

with impr. mgtCropping PatternHa cereals: Ha horticulture: N/ha livestock:

Annual Water Use

m3/yr

Gross Margin/m3

$/m3/yr

Cropping PatternHa cereals: Ha horticulture: N/ha livestock:

Annual Water Use

m3/yr

Gross Margin/m3

$/m3/yr

Cropping PatternHa cereals: Ha horticulture: N/ha livestock:

Annual Water

Use m3/yr

Gross Margin/m3

$/m3/yr

Pres

ent

w.out impr. mgt

Water Balancereuse

groundwater

Surface inflows

rainfed

19902000

20102020

20302040

20500

40

80

19902000

20102020

20302040

20500

40

80

Futu

re M

anag

emen

t Str

ateg

ies

Benchmark Site

WORKSHOP PURPOSE:To identify scope for available watershed and basin-scale water balance assessments to include scenarios demonstrating improvements in integrated management of land, water and livelihoods to be achieved through upscaling of WLI pilot-tested strategies and technologies

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

potential water savings inagriculture

agricultural water use

min ETP for foodproduction

industry

domestic

THANK YOUContact: c.king@cgiar.org