Overview and Trends

7/29/2019 Overview and Trends

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STATE OF POVERTY IN

PAKISTAN:

OVERVIEW AND TRENDS

A. R. Kemal


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Issues in Drawing Poverty Line

Basis of drawing the poverty line

a specific calorific requirements and drawpoverty line at the income level required to

meet the food and non-food requirements;

poverty line on the basis of basic needs

draw poverty line not just on the basis of

income levels but also by having access tovarious human resource activities.


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.Contd.

Various studies use different minimum

calorific requirements. For example, Malik (1998), Malik (1988), Arif

(2002), Amjad and Kemal (1997) use 2550

calories;

The others have used lower benchmark.

Planning Commission has suggested the useof 2350 calories per adult equivalent.


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.Contd.

Constant poverty line in real terms:

updating the poverty line by price indices andthus ensuring that the real incomes at poverty

line remain the same. it does not

automatically ensure that all those above thepoverty line meet the calorific requirements.

draw the poverty line that ensures theminimum calorie intake.


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.Contd.

Conversion of expenditure on calories:

Use market prices to convert the expenditureinto calorie intakes;

Using the prices within the data set reported

by the respondents in the survey


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.Contd.

Poverty lines for urban-rural:

Same poverty line for the both the urban andrural areas;

Separate poverty lines for the two;

Poverty lines for different provinces


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.Contd.

Finally, some studies use only food items

while the others use both food and non-food products in the regression analysis to

determine poverty line.


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Poverty Trends in the 1990s:

Pakistan

30.927.7-----Anwar and Qureshi (2003)--32.62428.626.73430.7World bank (2002)

-28.221.82522.2--FBS 2150 calories

-30.624.527.724.9--2350 calories (official

poverty line)

-32.226.329.326.6--FBS 2550 calories

-35.229.627.4---Arif, Nazli and Haq (2001)

-35.2-----Qureshi and Arif (2001)

--31----Jamal and Ghaus-Pasha

(2000)

---28.726.826.129.2Jafri (1999)

---27.9328.112319.18Ali and Tahir (1999)

----22.422.117.32Amjad and Kemal (1997)

2000-

01

1998-

99

1996-

97

1993-

94

1992-

93

1990-

91

1987-

88

Year


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Poverty Trends in the 1990s for

Rural Areas

34.328.8-----Anwar and Qureshi (2003)

-35.927.133.427.736.940.2World bank (2002)

-322629.723.9--FBS 2150 calories

-34.728.83327--2350 calories (official

poverty line)

-36.330.734.729.9--FBS 2550 calories



--32----Jamal and Ghaus-Pasha

(2000)

---25.424.625.229.3Jafri (1999)

---31.2430.5324.4920.36Ali and Tahir (1999)---23.3523.5918.32Amjad and Kemal (1997)

2000-

01

1998-

99

1996-

97

1993-

94

1992-

93

1990-

91

1987-

88

Year


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Poverty Trends in the 1990s for

Urban Areas

-------Anwar and Qureshi (2003)-24.216.917.220.830.7-World bank (2002)

-19.112.413.617.7--FBS 2150 calories

-20.914.815.219.8--2350 calories (official poverty

line)

-22.416.116.320.7--FBS 2550 calories



--27----Jamal and Ghaus-Pasha (2000)

---26.928.326.630.3Jafri (1999)

---20.8922.9119.8216.65Ali and Tahir (1999)

----15.518.6414.99Amjad and Kemal (1997)

2000-

01

1998-

99

1996-

97

1993-

94

1992-

93

1990-

91

1987-

88

Year


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Poverty Gap and Severity of Poverty

2.26.91998-991.24.51996-97

1.55.51993-941.24.51992-93

SeverityGapYear


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Poverty Reduction Strategy

Higher Growth Rate

Employment Strategy

SME and Micro Enterprises


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Trends in Poverty: Consistent estimates

of Head Count

25.9034.8032.601998-99

27.0032.0031.001996-97

15.5023.3522.401992-93

18.6423.5922.111990-91

14.9918.3217.321987-88

21.1725.8724.471984-85

25.9432.5130.681979

38.7649.1146.531969-70

40.9645.6244.501966-67

44.5338.9440.241963-64

UrbanRuralTotalYear


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Estimates for 1998-99 and 2000-01

39.537.535.6032.122000-01

35.632.630.4330.61998-99

Arif/PSESPIDE/HIESTalat Anwar

& SarfrazQureshi

Economic

Survey


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Labor Force and Employment in

Pakistan

13.112.0Under-Employment Rate

(%)

7.85.9Unemployment Rate (%)

37.535.9Employment

41.038.2Labor Force

140.5130.0Population

1999-001997-98

(In Millions)


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Employment Strategy

Employment Depends onGrowth rate of output

Composition of output

Technology employed


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Priority Areas

Agriculture

Small scale industries

Construction

General services

Previous Government has

emphasized instead of the last two on

IT

Oil and gas


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Promotion of agriculture sector

Higher allocation to R&D and extension

services and ensuring that objectives arerealized

Seed multiplication and distribution Ensuring availability of agriculture inputs at

affordable prices

Enhanced credit availability

Improved marketing facilities

Effective support price mechanism


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Manufacturing Sector

Tariff rationalization

Diversification of output and

exports

Augmenting science and

technology apparatus and R&D Promotion of small scale

industries


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Globalization and Employment

Closure of firms where nocomparative advantage exist

Higher employment over long run Producers indulge in

marginalization and casualizationof workers

P i ti ti d


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Privatisation and

Employment in the short run

Possibility of Reduction in Employment inshort-run but higher employment over

long-run

Redundancy of workers

Private sector does not hire professional

workers

Contract workers phenomena

Monopolistic practices

P bl i S ll S l /


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Problems in Small Scale/

Micro Enterprises Tax structure

Demand for products Credit

Technology Cluster approaches


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Construction

Depends on investment levels

Public work progress

Housing project


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Information technology

It can help in

Accrual of gains from participating in thegrowing world demand for software and

hardware Gains in production efficiency

Networking open up possibilities for

poor

But may result in digital divide


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Social Protection

How to bring benefits to no-

unionized workers

Implementation of labour laws Labour levies are utilized for

workers


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THANK YOU

Documents

Overview and Trends