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STATE OF POVERTY IN
PAKISTAN:
OVERVIEW AND TRENDS
A. R. Kemal
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Issues in Drawing Poverty Line
Basis of drawing the poverty line
a specific calorific requirements and drawpoverty line at the income level required to
meet the food and non-food requirements;
poverty line on the basis of basic needs
draw poverty line not just on the basis of
income levels but also by having access tovarious human resource activities.
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Issues in Drawing Poverty Line
.Contd.
Various studies use different minimum
calorific requirements. For example, Malik (1998), Malik (1988), Arif
(2002), Amjad and Kemal (1997) use 2550
calories;
The others have used lower benchmark.
Planning Commission has suggested the useof 2350 calories per adult equivalent.
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Issues in Drawing Poverty Line
.Contd.
Constant poverty line in real terms:
updating the poverty line by price indices andthus ensuring that the real incomes at poverty
line remain the same. it does not
automatically ensure that all those above thepoverty line meet the calorific requirements.
draw the poverty line that ensures theminimum calorie intake.
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Issues in Drawing Poverty Line
.Contd.
Conversion of expenditure on calories:
Use market prices to convert the expenditureinto calorie intakes;
Using the prices within the data set reported
by the respondents in the survey
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Issues in Drawing Poverty Line
.Contd.
Poverty lines for urban-rural:
Same poverty line for the both the urban andrural areas;
Separate poverty lines for the two;
Poverty lines for different provinces
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Issues in Drawing Poverty Line
.Contd.
Finally, some studies use only food items
while the others use both food and non-food products in the regression analysis to
determine poverty line.
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Poverty Trends in the 1990s:
Pakistan
30.927.7-----Anwar and Qureshi (2003)--32.62428.626.73430.7World bank (2002)
-28.221.82522.2--FBS 2150 calories
-30.624.527.724.9--2350 calories (official
poverty line)
-32.226.329.326.6--FBS 2550 calories
-35.229.627.4---Arif, Nazli and Haq (2001)
-35.2-----Qureshi and Arif (2001)
--31----Jamal and Ghaus-Pasha
(2000)
---28.726.826.129.2Jafri (1999)
---27.9328.112319.18Ali and Tahir (1999)
----22.422.117.32Amjad and Kemal (1997)
2000-
01
1998-
99
1996-
97
1993-
94
1992-
93
1990-
91
1987-
88
Year
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Poverty Trends in the 1990s for
Rural Areas
34.328.8-----Anwar and Qureshi (2003)
-35.927.133.427.736.940.2World bank (2002)
-322629.723.9--FBS 2150 calories
-34.728.83327--2350 calories (official
poverty line)
-36.330.734.729.9--FBS 2550 calories
-39.831.629.9---Arif, Nazli and Haq (2001)
-39.8-----Qureshi and Arif (2001)
--32----Jamal and Ghaus-Pasha
(2000)
---25.424.625.229.3Jafri (1999)
---31.2430.5324.4920.36Ali and Tahir (1999)---23.3523.5918.32Amjad and Kemal (1997)
2000-
01
1998-
99
1996-
97
1993-
94
1992-
93
1990-
91
1987-
88
Year
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Poverty Trends in the 1990s for
Urban Areas
-------Anwar and Qureshi (2003)-24.216.917.220.830.7-World bank (2002)
-19.112.413.617.7--FBS 2150 calories
-20.914.815.219.8--2350 calories (official poverty
line)
-22.416.116.320.7--FBS 2550 calories
-31.727.423.1---Arif, Nazli and Haq (2001)
-31.7-----Qureshi and Arif (2001)
--27----Jamal and Ghaus-Pasha (2000)
---26.928.326.630.3Jafri (1999)
---20.8922.9119.8216.65Ali and Tahir (1999)
----15.518.6414.99Amjad and Kemal (1997)
2000-
01
1998-
99
1996-
97
1993-
94
1992-
93
1990-
91
1987-
88
Year
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Poverty Gap and Severity of Poverty
2.26.91998-991.24.51996-97
1.55.51993-941.24.51992-93
SeverityGapYear
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Poverty Reduction Strategy
Higher Growth Rate
Employment Strategy
SME and Micro Enterprises
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Trends in Poverty: Consistent estimates
of Head Count
25.9034.8032.601998-99
27.0032.0031.001996-97
15.5023.3522.401992-93
18.6423.5922.111990-91
14.9918.3217.321987-88
21.1725.8724.471984-85
25.9432.5130.681979
38.7649.1146.531969-70
40.9645.6244.501966-67
44.5338.9440.241963-64
UrbanRuralTotalYear
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Estimates for 1998-99 and 2000-01
39.537.535.6032.122000-01
35.632.630.4330.61998-99
Arif/PSESPIDE/HIESTalat Anwar
& SarfrazQureshi
Economic
Survey
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Labor Force and Employment in
Pakistan
13.112.0Under-Employment Rate
(%)
7.85.9Unemployment Rate (%)
37.535.9Employment
41.038.2Labor Force
140.5130.0Population
1999-001997-98
(In Millions)
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Employment Strategy
Employment Depends onGrowth rate of output
Composition of output
Technology employed
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Priority Areas
Agriculture
Small scale industries
Construction
General services
Previous Government has
emphasized instead of the last two on
IT
Oil and gas
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Promotion of agriculture sector
Higher allocation to R&D and extension
services and ensuring that objectives arerealized
Seed multiplication and distribution Ensuring availability of agriculture inputs at
affordable prices
Enhanced credit availability
Improved marketing facilities
Effective support price mechanism
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Manufacturing Sector
Tariff rationalization
Diversification of output and
exports
Augmenting science and
technology apparatus and R&D Promotion of small scale
industries
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Globalization and Employment
Closure of firms where nocomparative advantage exist
Higher employment over long run Producers indulge in
marginalization and casualizationof workers
P i ti ti d
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Privatisation and
Employment in the short run
Possibility of Reduction in Employment inshort-run but higher employment over
long-run
Redundancy of workers
Private sector does not hire professional
workers
Contract workers phenomena
Monopolistic practices
P bl i S ll S l /
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Problems in Small Scale/
Micro Enterprises Tax structure
Demand for products Credit
Technology Cluster approaches
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Construction
Depends on investment levels
Public work progress
Housing project
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Information technology
It can help in
Accrual of gains from participating in thegrowing world demand for software and
hardware Gains in production efficiency
Networking open up possibilities for
poor
But may result in digital divide
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Social Protection
How to bring benefits to no-
unionized workers
Implementation of labour laws Labour levies are utilized for
workers
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