Role of Statistical Services in Planning and monitoring development programmes in India

Outline of the presentationBackground of Indian Statistical

System Importance of StatisticsRole of Statistical Offices Generation and Use of Data for

Planning and Monitoring of Development Programmes

Historical Background

The manuscript of arthashastra (http://www.hindu.com/2009/06/16/stories/2009061653990500.htm)

• Kautilya’s Arthashastra (321-296 B.C.) – System of census and data collection relating to agriculture, population and other economic activities, covering villages and towns

•Coexistence of economics and statistics and their application for the welfare of states

•Huen Tsang’s writings (dated late seventh to early eighth century) – Detailed description of plan of cities, construction of houses and an account of common products of India and data on area of kingdoms and distance between them

• Ain-iAkbari by Abul Afzal (Moghul period) – system of legalised measurements, land classification and crop yields by season etc., system of land tenure and land revenue

Historical Background – British period• Geared towards administration, tax collection, revenue, trade

and commerce and related activities• Developed in the provinces expanding in scope to cover the

fields of agriculture, industries, civil supplies (during World War II), education, forestry, labor, cooperation, health and vital statistics- data collected from districts

• A small department of statistics was founded in 1847• In 1848, the first census relating to the area and revenue of each

in the North-west provinces was released• In 1853, the first series of statistical papers in India released• In 1862, publication of Statistical Abstract of British India –

based on returns of local administration –annual feature till 1923• Dr. W.W.Hunter –appointed as Director General of Statistics in

India in 1869 – role of present day CSI

History – British Era• Year 1881

• Following the recommendations of the Indian Famine Commission , Agriculture departments were opened for collection of agriculture statistics – (Agricultural Statistics of British India published in 1886)

• First complete population census was conducted

• Year 1905 –– Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics -

trade and commercial statistics

• Year 1925- – Economic Enquiry Committee set up which recommended the

formation of a central statistical office for coordination, institution of a statistical cadre, establishment of state/provincial statistical departments

Importance of StatisticsThe adequate, credible and timely data generated are

essential for the purpose of policy formulation and for monitoring the progress of various sectors of the economy.

The requirements for decision – making have expanded from time to time.

To establish empirical evidence. To understand the behaviour of various socio-economic

variables such as enrolment, patients, widows, household consumption expenditure etc.

With impressive and commendable economic development, the constant growing requirement of the timely & reliable data remains a challenge task.

The composition of national economy is focusing on services, which have the implications for collection and dissemination of data.

Statistics – Study of the laws of ChanceIn the preface to his book on “Statistics and Truth”. C.R.Rao (1989) writes

“It is now regarded that chance is inherent in all natural phenomena, and the only way of understanding nature and making predictions (with minimum loss) is to study the laws (or the inner structure ) of chance and formulate appropriate rules of action. Chance may appear as an obstructer and an irritant in our daily life but chance can also create. We have now learnt to put chance to work for the benefit of mankind. All knowledge is, in the final analysis, history. All sciences are, in the abstract, mathematics and all methods of acquiring knowledge are essentially statistics.”

Present Indian Statistical System: Institutional Framework• Functions within Federal Structure of the Government of India

• Authority and responsibility for collection of statistics is determined by the overall responsibility for the subject under the Constitution

• Laterally and vertically decentralized

• Aggregation of state level data for national level data; state level data aggregated from district and sub-district level data

• Central Government acts as coordinating agency for presentation of statistics

• CSO in MoSPI – nodal agency for a planned development in the statistical system and for bringing about coordination in statistical activities between Centre and State

• In important ministries and in Central government statistical offices, officers of the Indian Statistical Service (ISS) and subordinate statistical staff perform the statistical functions

Statistical System at the States Generally decentralized laterally over the Departments of the State

Government, with major Departments, such as, agriculture or health, having large statistical divisions for the work of departmental statistics.

At the apex level is the Directorate (formerly Bureau) of Economics and Statistics (DES) responsible for the coordination of statistical activities in the State as well as for

liaising with the centre

Publish statistical abstracts and handbooks of the States, annual economic reviews or surveys, district statistical abstracts, and State budget analysis; work out the estimates of the State Domestic Product and Retail Price Index Numbers and engage in such other statistical activities as is relevant to the State

Some States have a common statistical cadre.

Flow of dataDistrict

offices of Departme

nts

Statistical Unit of State Government

Statistical Unit of Central

Ministries

CSO

SUs of GOI Ministries

SUs of State Govt.

State DES

Subsequent Flow of Administrative Statistics; weak coordinationPrimary as well as Subsequent Flow of

Administrative Statistics

Subsequent Flow of Administrative Statistics; weak coordination

Primary Flow of Administrative Statistics; strong coordination

Generation of Data for Planning Sources of Data: • Regular Administrative Data such as

Agricultural Statistics, Industrial Production, banking statistics, foreign trade statistics etc.;

• Periodic Surveys and Statistical Reports such as NSSO’s Survey and Population Census

• Data generated by using estimation techniques Process of computation of Important Indicators involves the combination of data mainly from the above sources

Use of Data for Planning and MonitoringDecentralizing and local level planning, training in

use of data for planning and monitoring development programmes at sub-national level become imperative in accordance with the implementation of the 73rd and 74th Amendments to the Constitution of India

Outcomes of the data analysis and interpretation are used for proper planning, implementation and evaluation of various programmes at district level.

Monitoring & Evaluation of Flagship Development Programmes

Some of the Data UsesMonitoring of MDGs/HDIPoverty Estimation and fixing poverty lineConsumer price Index – Measurement of InflationNational Accounts (GDP) compilation - Contribution of unorganised sector Regional Industrial developmentEmployment & Unemployment scenarioUnderstanding various facet of socio-economic

conditions like health, education, rural debt, housing condition, tourism etc.

Thanks