Outline of Presentation Introduction Assessment Process Key Findings Conclusions and Implications

People and Places Vulnerable to People and Places Vulnerable to Climate Variability and Extremes: Climate Variability and Extremes:

Views from the Watershed Views from the Watershed Communities in the PhilippinesCommunities in the Philippines

J. M. Pulhin, R. J. Peras, R. D. Lasco, J. M. Pulhin, R. J. Peras, R. D. Lasco, RV. O. Cruz, and F. B. Pulhin RV. O. Cruz, and F. B. Pulhin

ENFOR-CFNR-UPLBENFOR-CFNR-UPLB

Second AIACC Regional Workshop for Asia and Pacific IslandsSecond AIACC Regional Workshop for Asia and Pacific IslandsTraders Hotel, 3001 Roxas Blvd., Pasay City, PhilippinesTraders Hotel, 3001 Roxas Blvd., Pasay City, Philippines

2-5 November 20042-5 November 2004

Outline of PresentationOutline of Presentation

Introduction Assessment Process Key Findings Conclusions and Implications

GCM Climate Scenario

National Climate Scenario

Land use and cover Change in the Watershed Impacts on water,

forests and communities

Future Vulnerability Assessment

Future Adaptation Assessment

Climate Variability/ Extremes and Current Coping Mechanisms

Current Vulnerability Assessment

General Framework/Methodology of AS 21

ObjectivesObjectives of Assessmentof Assessment Who are the vulnerable groups in the Who are the vulnerable groups in the

communities and what factors contribute communities and what factors contribute to their vulnerability?to their vulnerability?

Where are the vulnerable places located Where are the vulnerable places located and why do the local communities and why do the local communities considered them to be vulnerable?considered them to be vulnerable?

What implications can be drawn from the What implications can be drawn from the study that can improve current study that can improve current understanding on vulnerability and understanding on vulnerability and adaptation to future climate change?adaptation to future climate change?

Assessment ProcessAssessment Process

1) Awareness generation among various stakeholders1) Awareness generation among various stakeholders

NPC/NIA Briefing, Pantabangan

DENR Briefing, Philippines CLSU Briefing for LGU, Philippines

National Orientation, Manila

Assessment ProcessAssessment Process

2. Gathering secondary information2. Gathering secondary information

• Demographic characteristics• Socio-economic characteristics• Geographic factors• Governance structure

3. Field study3. Field studyTime line analysis

Participatory mapping of vulnerable groups and places

Participatory impact analysis

3. Field study3. Field study

Identification and analysis of

adaptation strategies

3. Field study3. Field study

Household interviews

GPS reading of vulnerable areas

3. Field study3. Field studyAll done by engaging the local stakeholders

4. Data encoding and analysis4. Data encoding and analysis

5. Presentation and validation of research results5. Presentation and validation of research results

• To validate findings and engage stakeholders in adaptation planning

• To generate interest and support among various sectors on climate change initiatives and strengthen the research-policy link

All done in the context of learning by doing cum capability building approach

Local stakeholders

Researchers and officials from Bhutan

Ido-China scientists

General Site Description

• Pantabangan-Carranglan watershed generally represents a grassland watershed condition

• Provides water primarily for hydroelectric generation and irrigation purposes

Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed

Summary of General Impacts of Summary of General Impacts of CV&E to Watershed CommunitiesCV&E to Watershed Communities

Areas of Areas of concernconcern

General General ImpactsImpacts

Food availabilityFood availability (-)(-)Crop yieldCrop yield (+) (-)(+) (-)

Water availabilityWater availability (+) (-)(+) (-)LivelihoodLivelihood (-)(-)HealthHealth (-)(-)InfrastructureInfrastructure (-)(-)

Impacts and Vulnerability of Various Impacts and Vulnerability of Various Socioeconomic Groups to CV&ESocioeconomic Groups to CV&E

GroupsGroups ImpactsImpacts Degree of Degree of (-) Impacts(-) Impacts

VulnerabilityVulnerability

Better-off Better-off farmersfarmers

↓ ↓ production & production & income; ↔ food, income; ↔ food, livelihood, healthlivelihood, health

Better coping Better coping mechanism - low mechanism - low vulnerability vulnerability

““Little” farmersLittle” farmers↓ ↓ production, food, production, food, livelihood, health; livelihood, health; more debtmore debt

Poor coping Poor coping mechanism – high mechanism – high vulnerabilityvulnerability

EmployeesEmployees↑↑ price of price of commoditiescommodities

““Average” coping Average” coping mechanism – mechanism – moderately vul.moderately vul.

Business-Business-persons (small-persons (small-scale)scale)

↓ ↓ in salesin sales ““Average” coping Average” coping mechanism – mechanism – moderately vul.moderately vul.

Adaptation StrategiesAdaptation StrategiesGroupsGroups StrategiesStrategies EffectivEffectiv

enessenessRecommen-Recommen-dationsdations

Better-off farmers

Store food and farm inputs

Effective

“Little” farmers

“5-6” loan; borrow from relatives; plant vegetables along river/other crops; work in nearby town; seek overseas employment; engage in other jobs

Some effective; others not

Livelihood project;

estab. factory;

coop development;

financial asstnce; estab. of Grain Agency accessible to the poor

Employees Avail of loan; backyard project (e.g. piggery)

Effective

Business-persons (small-scale)

Store food supply and other farm inputs

Effective “Price watch” to regulate prices

LOCATION OF VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES IN BRGY. D.L. MAGLANOC, CARRANGLAN

TO SAN JOSE PROVINCIAL ROAD TO CONVERSION Pantabangan N.E.

SAN VICENTE

SAN FRANCISCO ST.

SAN JOAQUIN

SAN BALTAZAR ST.

ST

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RK

ET

SA

N N

I CO

LA

S G.S

. RO

SA

RIO

QU

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ON

ST

.

MALBANG CREEK

F.C. OTIC NORTH

MUN. HALL RESIDENTIAL

RESIDENTIAL

RESIDENTIAL

RESIDENTIAL

RESIDENTIAL

EMPLOYEES

BETTER-OFF FARMERS

BUSINESSPERSONS

VULNERABLE AREAS

“SMALL” FARMERS

RE

SID

EN

TIA

L

LEGEND :

LOCATION OF VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES

Low-lying, flood-prone settlement areas


Low-lying, flood-prone agricultural areas


Agricultural land at the tail-end of irrigation canal

Dying river


Highly erodable areas along riverbanks


Unstable areas that support infrastructure


Roadsides and other steep areas prone to landslides


Areas highly susceptible to forest fires

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CARRANGLAN

PANTABANGAN

ALFONSO CASTAÑEDA

MARIA AURORA

VULNERABILTY MAP BASED AND

BIOPHYSICAL AND SOCIAL PARAMETERS

- LOW

- MODERATE- HIGH

. - VULNERABLE SITES (LOCAL PEOPLE)

Conclusions and ImplicationsConclusions and Implications Engagement of the stakeholders at the different

stages of the research process– generates public awareness and interest on the issue– facilitates identification and potentially, implementation of

adaptation strategies especially at the local level– Strengthen research-policy interlink

Poor farmers are more vulnerable to CV&E and have lesser capacity to adapt due to:– lack of/limited access to productive base (human, natural,

and manufactured capital)– past faulty development approach that created sense of

dependency among local communities– limited/inappropriate policy and institutional mechanism

that provides assistance to the poor– inequitable social structure

Conclusions and ImplicationsConclusions and Implications

Participatory vulnerability assessment has the following benefits: – Complements existing assessment

methods like the use of vulnerability index and GIS application, thereby make the assessment more robust

– Promotes dialogue with local communities

– Increases the chances of enhancing local adaptation

Conclusions and ImplicationsConclusions and Implications

Looking on the multiple stressors that contribute to people’s vulnerability is a useful way of understanding this complex process

Addressing vulnerability should include among others, mainstreaming adaptation in development programs and should aim at empowering the local communities to broaden their range of choices of appropriate strategies rather than making them dependent on external support.

Our future depends on reducing vulnerability and enhancing adaptive capacity NOW!!!

THANK YOU!!!THANK YOU!!!

Documents

Outline of Presentation Introduction Assessment Process Key Findings Conclusions and Implications