One Financial Report - 08_11

8/11/2019 One Financial Report - 08_11

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Weekly Sentiment Paper Distributed by: One FinancialFor the Week of: 08/10 through 08/16 Written by: Andrei Wogen

Email: [email protected]

Week in Review

1

Australian Dollar

2

New Zealand Dollar

4

Japanese Yen

6

China Renminbi; Onshore, Yuan

8

Euro Area: Euro

9

British Pound

12

Canadian Dollar

14

United States Dollar

15

Emerging Markets

17

Upcoming Data for the Week

18

Charts

20

Week in Review

RBA leaves rates at historic lows; stays neutral on the economy and continues to see the AUDas overvalued; RBA policy statement reflects the same though with downgrades to both year-

end inflation and growth forecasts Australia employment change comes in worse than expected and the unemployment rate rises;

unemployment rise though blamed on changes in the way the data is collected

New Zealand employment change come in worse than expected while wage growth tickshigher and unemployment rate falls

ECB leaves rates unchanged; overall dovish on the economy with more talk of willingness toease further if needed

Canada Employment change much weaker than expected; Unemployment lower

Russia continues to build troops on Ukraine's borders; more sanctions from Russia and EU/US; all continue to hamper sentiment
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


2/21

Australian DollarMain Longer-Term Themes

Neutral RBA that wants to do nothing with rates at this time; now sees rates at

current levels as the appropriate place to foster growth

China economy that continues to show weakness

An Australian currency that, according to the RBA, is high by historical standards

domestic economy that is weak in some sectors while strong in others

risks surrounding the latest Australian budget

Recent cut in the carbon tax that is expected to lower inflation going forward

mining investment that continues to be weak and is expected to be weaker

falling commodity prices low risk environment providing support for higher yielding assets, including AUD

Consumer Confidence that has recently began to rise after bottoming after the

current budget was released

Main Themes of Last Week

June Retail sales higher than expected

AiG Performance of Services higher than previous

Australian trade balance better than previous and expected but still in negative

territory; exports higher than previous while imports stay unchanged in negative

territory RBA leaves cash rate at 2.5% as expected; continues to be neutral on rates and the

economy overall

RBA releases their Monetary policy statement; overall a neutral statement but with

a more negative tone as they downgrade the inflation and growth rates for 2014

Australian home loans lower than expected


3/21

July employment change much lower than expected and the unemployment rate

rises to a 12-year high; high unemployment rate due to statistical changes

AUD falling for the week overall

Lower AUD net long positions in CFTC data for the week

Price Action and Order Flow of the AUD During Previous Week:vs. the USD, it fellabout 30 pips. Versus the JPY it fell about 80 pips for the week and versus the NZD it fell about

10 pips.

Overall Sentiment at the End of Last Week: the overall neutral sentiment was reinforced

but to the downside overall as domestic data came in mixed to weaker overall and the RBA

continues its neutral rhetoric.

The Week Ahead and Other Thoughts: for this week, things are calmer for the island

nation as there is nothing too much that will be big market drivers. Though with little data for

the week overall, any of this data could spark some good moves. On Monday, House price

index numbers will be released as will NABs Business Confidence numbers. These two releases

are probably the most important for the week as we will get a feel for future business activity

and also how strong the housing market continues to be. Then on Tuesday, Westpac Consumer

confidence may also get some attention as it has recently taken a beat down after the

government's recent budget release. And then on Wednesday, Consumer Inflation expectations

will be released. Other than that, the Australian dollar will be driven mostly by developments in

other countries, particularly in the US (as data there continues to impress increasing rate hike

expectations) and in Ukraine/Russia (as developments there continue to get worse).

As for the charts, AUD/NZD 1.09200 has bids on it with bids again lower down at 1.08500 and

then again at 1.07600 while offers reside at the 1.10600 level in good size. In AUD/JPY, bids

reside at 93.900, 93.600 and then in even bigger size down at 93.00 where there is also an option

barrier that will come into play if price reaches that point. Offers in AUD/JPY reside at 95.00,

95.600 and then further up between the 96.200 and the 96.500 level. And in AUD/USD, bids

reside at 0.92000 and then again at 0.92400 while offers reside at 0.92900 (in small quantity) with

larger amounts up at 0.93700 and then again between the 0.94700 and 0.95100 level.


4/21


5/21

Price Action and Order Flow of the NZD During Previous Week: vs. the USD it fell

about 40 pips and vs. the JPY it closed about 90 pips lower.

Overall Sentiment at the End of Last Week: the overall neutral sentiment continued with

the little data we had, though important, coming in mixed and geopolitical events helping the

NZD lower.The Week Ahead and Other Thoughts:For this week there is some important data to

watch and really anything is important at this point with the RBNZ on hold in terms of future

rate hikes as they are watching domestic economic developments to make their next decision.

On Sunday evening (EST US time) Electronic card sales will be released which will give some

indication on consumer demand. Then on Monday REINZ house price index number will be

released which will be interesting to see given the recent weakness seen in some of the housing

market as rates have risen over the last few months. Business PMI will be released on

Wednesday as well as Retail Sales, with the latter being another good indication of the level of

consumer demand in New Zealand. The market continues to be concerned with when and if the

RBNZ will continue its rate hiking campaign, getting their base rate up to neutral level which is

in the 4.5% - 5% range and so data this week will continue to be looked through the eyes of rate

hike expectations.

As for charts, NZD/JPY has bids at 85.700 with larger ones that will likely come into play down

at the 84.00 level while offers reside at 86.800 and then again up at the 87.600 level. In NZD/

USD bids, along with an option barrier reside at 0.84200 with more bids at 0.84300 and on the

topside, offers reside at about the 0.8500 level with more above starting at the 0.85400 level.


6/21

Japanese Yen Main Longer-Term Themes

expectations that the economy will be able to continue to grow even after the

recent tax hike though these expectations are waning now as data continues to show

weakness

the BoJ that is overall optimistic on future economic growth in Japan though has

continues to voice concerns about the continued weakness in exports as well as recently

voicing concerns about the drop off in consumption post-tax-hike; and they will

continue to implement their QE until inflation reaches their 2% target

government policy changes that are slow to materialize and be implemented growing expectations that the BoJ will not increase their QE program as early as

expected though with a weaker looking economy now these expectations may be

starting to increase

continued on and off of risk on as geopolitical events continue to be a background

(and this week, foreground) theme for the markets (Ukraine/Russia, Iraq, Israel)

weak Japan export sectorthat seems to be still continuing to be weak overall,

regardless of expectations that this sector would improve


BoJ monetary base increases during the month of July Services PMI data comes in higher than previous and is now in expansion territory

once again

Bank lending a little lower in July compared with Junes data

Current account balance for June lower than expected but higher than previous; in

negative territory

Leading economic index higher than previous


7/21

BoJ policy statement shows that the bank will continue to increase their monetary

base by 60-70 trillion Yen per annum; unanimous vote to keep policy steady; keeps

economic assessment unchanged; revises down assessment on exports and industrial

output; household spending remains resilient as a trend with effect of sales tax hike

gradually begins to wane Developments in Ukraine/Russia in particular help Yen gain some versus some of

its counterparts (see Emerging Market section for more details)

Net short CFTC positions gaining in pretty sizable amounts as bets of further BoJ

QE increase

Price Action and Order Flow of the JPY During Previous Week: vs. the USD it gained

about 50 pips versus the EUR it rose about 90 pips; versus the GBP it gained about 140 pips and

versus the CAD it rose bout 90 pips.

Overall Sentiment at the End of Last Week: the overall sentiment that is neutralto

negativewas reinforced on both sides this week as domestic data was mixed while

international developments helped push the Yen up vs. several of its peers.

The Week Ahead and Other Thoughts:This week the big release from Japan will be

Prelim GDP for the second quarter. Expectations are already showing a pretty dismal number.

So overall, if this number comes in as bad as is expected this will in many ways solidify the

expectations that I, and others have, that Japans economy is far from mended and there will be

many months yet until it bounces back fully and strongly enough. Other data of importance will

be Industrial Production numbers on Tuesday, Machine Tool orders on Monday and Machinery

Orders on Wednesday. All this data will continue to give us an idea of the conditions of Japans

economy going forward but if the data we have recently is any indication, it doesnt look like

that great of a future.

Looking at the charts, CAD/JPY bids reside at 92.400 and then again at 92.200 while offers

reside at 93.500 and then again at about the 93.80 level with more offers stacked up in layers

above the latter level. In GBP/JPY 170.600 has bids at it with more at 169.400 and offers reside at

171.500 and then again at the 172.400 level. In EUR/JPY, bids reside at 135.700 while offers

reside at 137.100 and then again in much larger quantity at the 138.00 level. And in USD/JPY

bids reside at 101.400 with larger ones down at the 101.00 level while offers reside at the 102.500

level with larger ones likely coming into play at the 103.100 level.


8/21

China Renminbi; Onshore, Yuan Main Longer-Term Themes

property market that is quite strong and considered by some to be near

bubble territory a government that is pushing through reforms to reform the overall

economy (moving to a freer, more market controlled economy) but that are

expected to slow growth going forward

PBoC that continues to initiate two-way action in the Yuan exchange rate;

also is reluctant to push through any more policy easing measures at this point

weak manufacturing sector but that is now showing some improvement

services sector that now suddenly looks weaker

consumer demand that seems to be strong once again after a fall during thefirst part of the year

weak economic conditions overall that may or not be turning a corner and

getting better...hard to tell at this point

Chinese govt that is pushing through targeted reforms and stimulus (cut in

the reserve ratio for certain rural banks, target infrastructure projects, etc.); these

stimulus measures seem to be having their intended effect as the economy in

China seems to be improving after a slump during the beginning of the year

Chinese govt that is targeting corruption cases, trying to deal withcorruption that is rampant throughout the economy and government

Inflation that remains weak


China officials continue to clamp down on corruption as individuals go to trial in

China for corruption related charges; also, the luxury sector in China is weak as a result


9/21

Trade balance data much higher than previous; imports in negative territory

though this is offset by a much stronger exports number; international community looks

stronger while domestic demand looks weaker

Services PMII from HSBC in weaker than previous and right at the expansion level

Non-Manufacturing PMI number lower than previousPrice Action and Order Flow of the CNY During Previous Week: the USD/CNY fell

again versus the USD this week by another 11 pips.

Overall Sentiment at the End of Last Week overall sentiment of the Yuan remains in

neutralto slightly positiveterritory and this week the positive side was reinforced as domestic

data continues to impress and gain strength overall.

The Week Ahead and Other Thoughts:For this week, markets will be focused on

something that actually happened on Saturday and this being the release of the CPI numbers for

July. Inflation is still well below the PBoCs target and any lower, the central bank will likely be

under pressure to ease monetary policy further in an attempt to push prices upwards again.

Other data this week will be New Loans and Money Supply data on Sunday (EST US) and then

Industrial Production and Retail Sales data for July on Tuesday. Expectations are neutral to

bearish from previous readings.

Euro Area: Euro Main Longer-Term Themes

economy that continues to remain weak though with some improvements

across different sectors and regions of the Euro Area beginning to show


10/21

a dovish to neutral central bank; that is expected will ease further in a

coming meeting, likely by initiating ABS purchases

a strong currency that seems to now be willing to fall though there are still

some underlying drivers helping to prop it up...mainly emerging market central

banks rotating out of USD and into other currencies, especially the Euro, as they

build up their reserves again

geopolitical risks from Russia/Ukraine tensions that continue to linger in

the background and that are causing some weaker growth in some areas of the

Euro Zone

peripheral country bond yields falling as investors pile into bonds of those

countries in search of yield but also due to some improvement in these countrys

economic and government environments however a bubble has formed in some

of these markets so risk of this busting and global contagion are under the

surface

Bond yields across the Euro Zone continuing to fall; 2-year German Bund

falling into negative territory this week and 10-year continues to hit all-time lows

high unemployment; though this seems to be falling some now

weak inflation across the Euro Area


Spain, German, and France Services PMI data coming in as or better than

expected; Italy and Euro Zone Services PMI data lower than expected Euro Zone composite PMI data lower than expected

Euro Zone retail sales much higher than expected

German Factory orders lower than previous and expected for both m/m and y/y

Italy GDP for the second quarter lower than expected, in negative territory and

now Italy is now technically in a recession

German Industrial Production lower than expected and previous

Ireland CPI lower than previous; m/m headline now in negative territory

ECB leaves all rates unchanged as expected; more negative on Euro Zone growth

and continuing to say that they are preparing for ABS purchases for use when neededand that they are open to more easing as needed

German trade balance data for June lower than expected; exports and imports

higher than expected and previous; good chance of a worse number for next month

when Julys number is released and then again in August as Russian sanctions will likely

have a negative impact

EUR CFTC net shorts increase again for the week


11/21

Price Action and Order Flow of the EUR During Previous Week: vs. the USD price it fell

about 15 pips for the week and versus the AUD it rose about 35 pips.


and mostly to the more negative side as domestic data overall was pretty weak while net short

positions continue to build against the Euro.The Week Ahead and Other Thoughts:This week GDP from the Euro Zone, France and

Germany will be released on Thursday. I am personally expecting some pretty weak numbers,

particularly from the Euro Zone number as we saw Italy go back into recession last week. Other

data of interest will be German Economic Sentiment and Euro Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment

survey numbers. On Wednesday Final German CPI numbers will also be released and on

Thursday, along with the GDP data, the ECBs monthly bulletin will be released though this is

usually just a repeat of what was heard at the ECB press conference the week before. Also, CPI

will be released on Thursday too for the Euro Zone with bearish expectations. Going back to the

GDP for a minute, I currently expect the Euro to continue to weaken as expectations for the

GDP data on Thursday begin to be priced in and with Italys dismal growth numbers last week,

the expectations for overall Euro Zone growth numbers will also likely be not so great. Combine

these weak expectations for Q2 growth and continued interest and worry about additional

sanctions against Russia and the situation as a whole in Ukraine continuing this week, I am

expecting another pretty dismal week for the Euro.

Now for the charts: EUR/USD continues to move down, but very slowly with bids beginning at

the 1.33200 level and then again in larger quantity, along with an option barrier, down at the

1.3300 level while offers reside at 1.34500 and then at the 1.3500 and 1.35500 levels. And in

EUR/AUD bids reside at 1.42600 and then further up at the 1.43800 level while offers reside at

1.44800.


12/21

British Pound Main Longer-Term Themes

economy that continues to improve though lately has been showing some

weakness though this was, in part, expected

neutral central bank that is increasingly becoming more hawkish, but very

slowly

expectations that the BoE will raise rates soon though the Bank seems to be

fine with not raising rates at this time; seem to be dragging their feet on doing it

a strong housing market that has been a concern by the BoE and UK govt

in the past

Scottish independence vote in the background right now; will increase in

importance as a something to watch as the September 18th vote approaches

recent lending restrictions and other small restrictions for lending to help

tame the housing market though prices continue to rise

Pound Sterling currency that has turned more negative now; market seems

to have gotten ahead of itself some in its expectations for BoE rate hikes.this is

being reflected in the GBP right now


BoE leaves rates and QE unchanged as expected; market awaits Inflation report

due this week and then BoE minutes the following week

Construction PMI better than expected Services PMI higher than expected and previous

Halifax House Price index higher than previous

Industrial and Manufacturing Production lower than expected for June

NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) for July lower than previous

CFTC position data shows a quite sizable decrease in net long positions


13/21

Price Action and Order Flow of the GBP During Previous Week: vs. the USD it fell

about 200 pips and versus the CAD it rose about 35 pips.


to the negative side more this week as domestic data came in mixed to lower and the Pound

continued to be sold off.The Week Ahead and Other Thoughts: This week, the BoEs Quarterly inflation report

on Wednesday will be of great interest. This will give us an indication of the Banks assessment

of the UK economy and therefore how close they could be to raising rates. At this point, they

continue saying that there continues to be slack in the economy and so it will be interesting to

see if they have downgraded their assessment of what slack is in the economy. If their slack

assessment improves the Pound will get a bid as rate hikes look like they are really coming

when or even sooner than the market anticipates. But a continued rhetoric of low slack in the

economy and we will see the Pound continue to sell-off. Also on Wednesday, BoE Gov. Carney

will give a speech in response to the inflation report being released. Also this week Employment

data on Wednesday will carry some interest but given it is only an hour before the inflation

report this report will likely be ignored with little market reaction. On Friday, we will get a

second look at second quarter GDP. This could carry some interest if the number is too far out of

line with the initial read we got a few weeks ago but if it comes inline, focus will continue to be

on the inflation report earlier in the week. Other minor data will be Services PMI data on

Thursday.

As for chart this week, GBP/USD, offers reside at 1.68200, 1.68600 and then again at the 1.68900

level with bids at 1.67600 and then again in better quantity around the 1.67300 level. GBP/CAD,

bids are at 1.83300, 1.83100 and then again at the 1.8200 level where there will likely be an

option barrier that will come into play. As for offers in GBP/CAD, these reside at 1.84600 with

even larger ones up at the 1.85200 level.


14/21

Canadian Dollar Main Longer-Term Themes

economy that is weak in certain sectors but also strong in some sectors,particularly the housing sector

a dovish central bank

a relatively mixed to slightly positive Canadian Dollar

mixed to slightly positive US economy that is gaining strength

strong housing market

limited domestic demand and limited pent-up domestic demand

Slow employment and wage growth

CPI that has recently risen closer to the BoCs targetMain Themes of Last Week

July employment change data a lot worse than expected; part time gains while

full-time increases; no chance of activity from the BoC

Unemployment rate lower but this is due to lower amount of people looking for

work

Building permits higher than expected but a bit lower than previous; continuing to

show a strong housing and real estate market in Canada due to low rate environment

Ivey Purchasing Managers for July higher than expected

June Trade Balance higher than expected with exports higher while imports fallshowing some weaker domestic demand; higher exports can be contributed to stronger

growth in the US in particular

CAD CFTC net long positions decreased by a small bit for the week

Price Action and Order Flow of the CAD During Previous Week: vs. the USD it closed

about 65 pips lower.


15/21

Overall Sentiment at the End of Last Week: the overall mixedto negativesentiment was

reinforced on the negative side as data disappointed overall.

The Week Ahead and Other Thoughts: This week things are pretty quiet. Housing starts

will be released on July which have bearish expectations while New Housing Price Index

number will be released on Thursday. And Manufacturing Shipments will released on Friday.But overall should be a pretty quiet week for the CAD, minus movements due to developments

elsewhere. The markets are pretty much not expecting anything from the BoC at this point but if

things continue as they are in the Canadian economy, the next move by the Bank, in my opinion

could be a cut rather than a hike.

Looking at the charts, USD/CAD, bids reside at 1.09000 and then again at the 1.08700 level

while offers reside at about the 1.09800 level with larger ones that will likely come into play at

around the 1.10500 level.

United States Dollar Main Longer-Term Themes

economy that is mixed though now improving from a very weak first part

of the year though concerns remain housing market that seems to be possibly getting weaker

a neutral US Fed that is happy to keep rates low for now though that seems

to be slowly changing to the hawkish side

expectations for a rate hike that is mixed but generally expected within one

year; so by mid to late 2015


16/21

Yields on US debt that are gaining some but are still week; the 2.44% level is

the yearly low and is a key level that is being watched; 10-year has been in a

range for the past few months

Fed tapering their QE program; plans on ending in October of this year

with a final $15B taper

A weak government that is doing little to help support and grow the

economy


Little data of importance for the week

Services PMI a little lower than expected and previous

Factory Orders higher than previous and expected

Non-Manufacturing PMI for July higher than expected; New orders and

employment components both higher; overall a good number

MBA Mortgage Apps higher than previous for the week

Trade balance data better than expected; though both exports and imports weaken;

imports weaken on auto part supplies that are lower

Jobless claims fall for the week again; yet another okay sign of the US jobs market

Non-Farm productivity better than previous

Unit labor costs lower though

Wholesale Inventories lower than expected; could bring a lower Q2 revision

US Durable Goods Revisions better than previous

Price Action and Order Flow of the USD During Previous Week: Versus the PLN it

closed about 135 pips higher. Versus the MXN it closed 750 pips higher, versus the TRY it rose

about 150 pips and versus the Ruble it rose about 70 pips.

Overall Sentiment at the End of Last Week: the overall mixedto slightly positive

sentiment was reinforced on the positive side as domestic data continued to strengthen overall

and the Dollar gained versus its emerging market counterparts as geopolitical worries pushed

the EM currencies lower.

The Week Ahead and Other Thoughts: This week, things are not so busy in terms of data

but still quite a bit in the amount of data releases. The main focus will be on Retail Sales data on

Wednesday. Expectations are pretty neutral and so any upside surprise will feed into rate hike

expectations as a better number would show increased consumer demand and therefore

possible higher inflation going forward. Other data will be PPI on Friday and Industrial

Production too. Industrial Production will be of interest to me in particular, not the most

important though. With recent industrial production data lower in other parts of the world

recently I can see there being downside risks to same type of data from the US. And on Friday,

UoM Consumer Sentiment will be released with bullish expectations though with recent


17/21

geopolitical risks this could have downside risk but, speaking domestically, with the recent jobs

data so good and unemployment continuing to fall, this could help offset any negative tone

from geopolitical worries. Other data will be Business Inventories on Wednesday and JOLTS Job

Openings data on Tuesday. Also of interest by the markets, will be FOMC members Fisher and

Dudley speaking during the week, on Monday and Wednesday respectively. With the Fedseeming to be closer to rate hikes and with what seems to be some divergence going on within

the Fed recently, these members words will be closely listened to to give any indication of what

the Fed is thinking. Rates are the big story right now for the US as the market continues to

anticipate when the Fed will raise rates. Expectations continue to be the middle of next year but

if data continues to impress, these expectations could easily be brought forward.

Emerging Markets Main Longer-Term Themes

Russia/Ukraine conflict

Sanctions against Russia and against the West and US from Russia putting growth

expectations on the downside

Weak growth in Eastern Europe due to Russian/Ukraine conflict

Continued conflict in Iraq

Weak growth and government troubles in certain emerging markets (Thailand,

Brazil, Argentina)

Expectations of reforms that will come soon and continue to come from certaincountries: India, Mexico, Indonesia

Weak economic conditions in many emerging market economies

Expectations of lower investment and growth in many of these emerging markets

as the US raises rates, pushing money out of the emerging markets and back to the US



18/21

Russian troops gaining on Ukraines border raising speculation of an invasion by

Russia for humanitarian reasons

Sanctions against the West and US from Russia including import bans on pork and

vegetables and fruit

Continued conflict in Iraq as the US strikes Isis militants in an effort to protectAmerican interests in Iraq

Argentina defaults on their debt..again

Lower EM currencies for the week as US rate expectations continue to build and

negative developments continue to push the EM currencies lower

Poland official warning of weakness in Polands growth going forward as a result

of the sanctions against and from Russia

Overall Sentiment at the End of Last Week: the overall mixedto negativefor all the

emerging market was reinforced last week as both government and political events continued

to get worse.

The Week Ahead and Other Thoughts: This week, focus will continue to be on Ukraine,

Russia and Iraq. With expectations continuing to build of an invasion by Russia into Ukraine

and with the US now involved in Iraq.again, things could intensify once again, sending risk

assets lower and safe asset higher.

Upcoming Data for the Week(Eastern US Time Zone)

Country Release Date Time Exp. Prev.

NZD Electronic Card Retail Sales y/y 08/10 6:45pm 4%

JPY Tertiary Industry Index m/m 08/10 7:50pm 0.2% 0.9%

JPY BoJ Monthly Economic Survey 08/11 1am

JPY Consumer Confidence (July) 08/11 1am 42.3 41.1


19/21


JPY Machine Tool Orders y/y 08/11 2am 48.7%

CAD Housing Starts y/y 08/11 8:15am 194K 198.2K

NZD REINZ House Price m/m 08/11 -0.3%

NZD House Price Index q/q 08/11 9:30pm 1.1% 1.7%

AUD NAB Business Confidence (July) 08/11 9:30pm 8

JPY Industrial Production y/y 08/12 12:30am 1%

EUR Italy CPI y/y 08/12 4am 0.1% 0.3%

EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment - German 08/12 5am 22 27.1

EUR EZ ZEW Economic Sentiment 08/12 5am 41.3 48.1

JPY GDP q/q (Q2) 08/12 7:50pm -1.8% 1.6%

JPY GDP Annualized (Q2) 08/12 7:50pm -7.1% 6.7%

AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (Aug) 08/12 9:30pm 94.9

AUD Wage Price Index y/y 08/12 9:30pm 2.6% 2.6%

CNY Retail Sales y/y 08/12 10pm 12.4% 12.4%

CNY Industrial Production y/y 08/12 10pm 9% 9.2%

CNY Urban Investment y/y 08/12 10pm 17.4% 17.3%

GBP Claimant Count Change (July) 08/13 4:30am -30K -36.3K

GBP Avg. Earnings Excluding Bonus 08/13 4:30am 0.7% 0.7%

GBP Claimant Count Rate 08/13 4:30am 3.1%

GBP Avg. Earnings Including Bonus 08/13 4:30am -0.1% 0.3%

GBP ILO Unemployment Rate 08/13 4:30am 6.4% 6.5%

EUR Industrial Production y/y 08/13 5am 0.1% 0.5%

GBP BoE Inflation Report 08/13 5:30am

GBP BoE Gov. Carney Speech 08/13 5:30am

USD Retail Sales m/m 08/13 8:30am 0.2% 0.2%

NZD Business NZ PMI (July) 08/13 6:30pm 53.3

NZD Retail Sales ex. Autos q/q (Q2) 08/13 6:45pm 0.8%

NZD Retail Sales q/q (Q2) 08/13 6:45pm 0.7%


20/21


JPY Machinery Orders m/m (June) 08/13 7:50pm 15.3% -19.5%

EUR German GDP y/y (Q2) 08/14 2am 2.5%

EUR German GDP q/q (Q2) 08/14 2am -0.1% 0.8%

EUR EZ CPI 08/14 5am 0.4% 0.5%

EUR EZ Core CPI 08/14 5am 0.8% 0.8%

EUR GDP y/y (Q2) 08/14 5am 0.7% 0.9%

EUR GDP q/q (Q2) 08/14 5am 0.1% 0.2%

USD Initial Jobless Claims 08/14 8:30am 289K

CAD New Housing Price Index y/y 08/14 8:30am 1.5%

GBP GDP y/y (Q2) 08/15 4:30am 3.1% 3.1%

GBP GDP q/q (Q2) 08/15 4:30am 0.8% 0.8%

USD PPI y/y 08/15 8:30am 1.8% 1.9%

USD Industrial Production m/m 08/15 9:15am 0.3% 0.2%

USD UoM Consumer Sentiment (Aug) 08/15 9:55am 82.2 81.8

Charts

AUD/USD Weekly Chart -- Poised for a break lower or a bounce?


21/21

GBP/JPY Daily Chart -- How hungry is it for those bids (green line)?

Documents

One Financial Report - 08_11