Objective 19: Objective 19: The Modern Middle EastThe Modern Middle East

Middle East = Middle East = Arab, Muslim, Oil-producing?Arab, Muslim, Oil-producing?

Middle East includes non-Arab states [Iran, Middle East includes non-Arab states [Iran, Israel] and is also ethnically diverse [Kurds, Israel] and is also ethnically diverse [Kurds, Assyrians, Armenians, Turcomans]Assyrians, Armenians, Turcomans]

Middle East is religiously diverse [Islam, Middle East is religiously diverse [Islam, Judaism, Christianity]Judaism, Christianity]

Sunni vs. ShiaSunni vs. Shia

Not all Middle Eastern countries have oil Not all Middle Eastern countries have oil • OIL: S.A., Iraq, U.A.E., Kuwait, Iran, Syria OIL: S.A., Iraq, U.A.E., Kuwait, Iran, Syria • No OIL: Israel, Egypt, Turkey, Jordan, No OIL: Israel, Egypt, Turkey, Jordan,

LebanonLebanon• 30% of the world’s oil production from M.E.30% of the world’s oil production from M.E.

Middle East - 5 Key ThemesMiddle East - 5 Key Themes Old Civilizations, New StatesOld Civilizations, New States

Cultural HeterogeneityCultural Heterogeneity

Institutional WeaknessesInstitutional Weaknesses

External Influences External Influences

Role of Religion – Extremism, Role of Religion – Extremism, Fundamentalism?Fundamentalism?

http://www.mideastweb.org/maps.htm

Sources of conflict since 1945Sources of conflict since 1945

Ethnic and religious conflict within the Ethnic and religious conflict within the regionregion

Palestinian / Israeli conflictPalestinian / Israeli conflict

Western influence and interventionWestern influence and intervention

Secularism vs. religious fundamentalismSecularism vs. religious fundamentalism often a reaction against modernity and often a reaction against modernity and Western influenceWestern influence

The Middle East and the WestThe Middle East and the West End of the Ottoman Empire Republic of TurkeyEnd of the Ottoman Empire Republic of Turkey

After WWI: mandate system in Gulf States:After WWI: mandate system in Gulf States:• Britain Britain Palestine, Iraq, Transjordan Palestine, Iraq, Transjordan• France France Syria, Lebanon Syria, Lebanon

““Independent” by end of WWII but Western oil Independent” by end of WWII but Western oil interests remainedinterests remained

Cold War and competition for oil meant Middle Cold War and competition for oil meant Middle East remained an area of Western intervention East remained an area of Western intervention and influence and influence

Sources of anti-U.S. sentimentSources of anti-U.S. sentiment History: betrayal of Woodrow Wilson’s ideal of History: betrayal of Woodrow Wilson’s ideal of

“self-determination”“self-determination”

U.S. actions during the Cold WarU.S. actions during the Cold War

Growing U.S. presence in 1970s: bases in Gulf Growing U.S. presence in 1970s: bases in Gulf StatesStates

U.S. support for Israel; supporting dictatorships in U.S. support for Israel; supporting dictatorships in Arab statesArab states

““Cultural imperialism”Cultural imperialism”

Palestinian – Israeli ConflictPalestinian – Israeli Conflict

Originated after Originated after WWIWWI

Promise of Promise of independence to independence to Middle East after Middle East after WWI was broken; WWI was broken; instead Palestine instead Palestine and other territories and other territories became “mandates”became “mandates”

Two Different NarrativesTwo Different Narratives

ReligiousReligious HistoricalHistorical PoliticalPolitical Economic/CulturalEconomic/Cultural IdentityIdentity MoralMoral

Promises to the Arabs—Promises to the Arabs—McMahon CorrespondenceMcMahon Correspondence

1. Subject to the above modifications, Great Britain is 1. Subject to the above modifications, Great Britain is prepared to recognize and support the independence of the prepared to recognize and support the independence of the Arabs in all the regions within the limits demanded by the Arabs in all the regions within the limits demanded by the Sherif of Mecca.Sherif of Mecca.

2. Great Britain will guarantee the Holy Places against all 2. Great Britain will guarantee the Holy Places against all external aggression and will recognise their inviolability.external aggression and will recognise their inviolability.

3. When the situation admits, Great Britain will give to the 3. When the situation admits, Great Britain will give to the Arabs her advice and will assist them to establish what may Arabs her advice and will assist them to establish what may appear to be the most suitable forms of government in appear to be the most suitable forms of government in those various territories. those various territories.

King-Crane Commission, 1919King-Crane Commission, 1919

“a national home for the Jewish people is not equivalent to making Palestine into a Jewish state”

“nor can the erection of such a Jewish state be accomplished without the gravest trespass upon the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine”

“the fact came out repeatedly in the Commission’s conference with Jewish representatives that the Zionists looked forward toa practically complete dispossession of the present non-Jewishinhabitants of Palestine”

“the initial claim, often submitted by Zionist representatives, that they have a ‘right’ to Palestine, based on an occupation of two thousand years ago, can hardly be seriously considered”

Balfour’s Response:

“in Palestine we do not propose even to go through the form of consulting the wishes of the present inhabitants of the country, though the American Commission has been going through the form of asking what they are. The four great powers are committed to Zionism, and Zionism, be it right or wrong, good or bad, is rooted in age-long tradition, in present needs, in future hopes, of far profounder import than the desires and prejudices of the 700,000 Arabs who now inhabit that ancient land.”

The Balfour Declaration,1917

Expressing support for “the establishment in Palestine of a nationalhome for the Jewishpeople…it being clearlyunderstood that nothingshall be done which mayprejudice the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine…”

Jewish migration to PalestineJewish migration to Palestine Began in the 1920sBegan in the 1920s

1920: 95% Palestinian; 5% Jewish [29,000]1920: 95% Palestinian; 5% Jewish [29,000]

1947: 68% Palestinian; 32% Jewish [630,000]1947: 68% Palestinian; 32% Jewish [630,000]

Jewish population after the creation of Israel:Jewish population after the creation of Israel:

• 1948: 0.8 million 1948: 0.8 million • 1964: 2.4 million1964: 2.4 million• Now: approximately 6.4 millionNow: approximately 6.4 million• Latest population influx after the disintegration of Latest population influx after the disintegration of

USSRUSSR

1939 British suspends ALL immigration to Palestine1939 British suspends ALL immigration to Palestine

United Nations Partition Plan, 1947 United Nations Partition Plan, 1947

Tan: Jewish stateGrey: Arab stateWhite: International zone

Holy City of JerusalemHoly City of Jerusalem

Dome of the Rock

Church of the HolySepulcher

The Western Wall

Armed conflicts over IsraelArmed conflicts over Israel 1948-49: War after creation of Israel1948-49: War after creation of Israel

1967: The “Six-Day War” initiated by Israel1967: The “Six-Day War” initiated by Israel• Preemptive war to create protective buffer Preemptive war to create protective buffer

around Israelaround Israel• Tripled Israeli territory in six daysTripled Israeli territory in six days• Placed 1.5 million Palestinians under Israeli rulePlaced 1.5 million Palestinians under Israeli rule

1973: “Yom Kippur War” 1973: “Yom Kippur War” • Egypt and Syria attack unsuccessfully in Sinai Egypt and Syria attack unsuccessfully in Sinai

and Golan Heightsand Golan Heights

Before 1967 After 1967

““Occupied” / “Disputed” TerritoriesOccupied” / “Disputed” Territories

After 1967, the focus of the Palestinian-After 1967, the focus of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict shifted from recognition of Israeli conflict shifted from recognition of Israel to status of the “occupied” or Israel to status of the “occupied” or “disputed” territories“disputed” territories

Sinai Peninsula was returned to Egypt Sinai Peninsula was returned to Egypt 19821982

Jewish settlers left the Gaza Strip summer Jewish settlers left the Gaza Strip summer 2005 2005

The Palestinian Liberation The Palestinian Liberation Organization [PLO]Organization [PLO]

Created in 1964 as a Created in 1964 as a government in exilegovernment in exile

Leader: Yasir Arafat [d. Leader: Yasir Arafat [d. 2004]2004]

1974: PLO recognized by 1974: PLO recognized by the U.N. as representative of the U.N. as representative of the Palestinian peoplethe Palestinian people

1987 and 2000 used 1987 and 2000 used strategy of strategy of intifadaintifada [uprising] [uprising] to oppose Israeli ruleto oppose Israeli rule

Became Palestinian Became Palestinian Authority 1993; current Authority 1993; current leader Mahmoud Abbasleader Mahmoud Abbas

Where are the Palestinians?

The largest group of refugeesin the world today.

Israel: 1 millionJordan: 1.5 millionGaza: 825,000West Bank: 583,000Saudi Arabia: 123,000Iraq: 90,000Syria: 383,200Lebanon: 376,500Egypt: 40,000N. Africa: 13,000Kuwait: 35,000

80% left in 1948.44% of Jordan’s population are displaced and refugee Palestinians

Israel rejects the “right of return” forrefugees.

Pursuing PeacePursuing Peace U.N. Resolution 242 (1967)U.N. Resolution 242 (1967)

• Called for withdrawal of Israeli forces from territories occupied Called for withdrawal of Israeli forces from territories occupied in 1967in 1967

• Called for Israel, Egypt, Syria, and Jordan to recognize one Called for Israel, Egypt, Syria, and Jordan to recognize one anotheranother

Separate peace agreements between Israel and Egypt Separate peace agreements between Israel and Egypt (1978) and Israel and Jordan (1994)(1978) and Israel and Jordan (1994)

Oslo Agreement (1993) “Land for Peace”Oslo Agreement (1993) “Land for Peace”• Palestinians abandon armed struggle and accept Israel’s right Palestinians abandon armed struggle and accept Israel’s right

to rule over 78% of mandate Palestineto rule over 78% of mandate Palestine

• In return they receive the remaining 22% (West Bank, Gaza, In return they receive the remaining 22% (West Bank, Gaza, Arab East Jerusalem)Arab East Jerusalem)

George W. Bush: 2002 “two-state solution”George W. Bush: 2002 “two-state solution”

Continuing ConflictContinuing Conflict Hamas, Hezbollah, and Hamas, Hezbollah, and

other extremist groups other extremist groups reject right of Israel to reject right of Israel to exist and reject all exist and reject all negotiations with Israelnegotiations with Israel

Violent acts on both sides Violent acts on both sides invite violent reprisals, invite violent reprisals, continuing the cycle of continuing the cycle of violenceviolence

Wall and Jewish Wall and Jewish settlement in West Banksettlement in West Bank

Gaza: Palestinian state Gaza: Palestinian state or “prison?”or “prison?”

LebanonLebanon Until civil war [1975-90] Until civil war [1975-90]

Lebanon was the Lebanon was the “Switzerland of the “Switzerland of the Middle East”Middle East”

1976-2005 Syrian 1976-2005 Syrian forcesforcesLebanonLebanon

1978-2000 Israeli 1978-2000 Israeli forcesforces S. Lebanon S. Lebanon• Hezbollah forms Hezbollah forms

against Israelagainst Israel

Summer 2006 war Summer 2006 war between Hezbollah and between Hezbollah and IsraelIsrael

Until 1975, Beirut was consideredthe “Paris of the Middle East”

The cornerstone of peace in Iraq?The cornerstone of peace in Iraq?

““The United States will not be able to achieve The United States will not be able to achieve its goals in the Middle East unless [it] deals its goals in the Middle East unless [it] deals directly with the Arab-Israeli conflict.” directly with the Arab-Israeli conflict.”

RECOMMENDATION 13: RECOMMENDATION 13: There must be a There must be a renewed and sustained commitment renewed and sustained commitment by the United States to a by the United States to a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace on comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace on all fronts: Lebanon and Syria, and all fronts: Lebanon and Syria, and President Bush’s June 2002 President Bush’s June 2002 commitment to a two-state solution commitment to a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine.for Israel and Palestine.

The Iraq Study Group ReportThe Iraq Study Group Report

Final Status IssuesFinal Status Issues

Jerusalem – who should control it?Jerusalem – who should control it?

Israeli security – right of Israel to exist.Israeli security – right of Israel to exist.

Palestinian refugees – right of returnPalestinian refugees – right of return

Borders – how to determine?Borders – how to determine?• ““LAND FOR PEACE”LAND FOR PEACE”

http://www.mideastweb.org/maps.htm

Egypt-Nasser, Sadat, Mubarak –Arab Socialism and Pan-Arabism

Iraq - Hussein-Baathist Socialism

Syria – Asad – Baathist Socialism

Libya – Qadafi – Green Socialism

Turkey - Secular Republic

Iran – Shah, Khomeini, Ahmadinejad –Islamism

Saudi Arabia – “Family w/ Flags”, Wahabi Islam

Cold War competition in the Middle Cold War competition in the Middle EastEast

USSR supported USSR supported Egypt, Syria, IraqEgypt, Syria, Iraq

U.S. supported U.S. supported Israel, Iran, Saudi Israel, Iran, Saudi ArabiaArabia

Switches:Switches:• Egypt 1970sEgypt 1970s• Iran 1979Iran 1979

Gamal Abdel Nassar nationalized theSuez Canal zone in 1956. This almost sparked a regional war and led to Egypt-USSR alliance

AfghanistanAfghanistan 1979-89: USSR intervened 1979-89: USSR intervened

in Afghanistan to support in Afghanistan to support communist regimecommunist regime

MujahideenMujahideen [Islamic [Islamic warriors] organized against warriors] organized against USSR USSR

Civil war continued after Civil war continued after Soviet withdrawalSoviet withdrawal

1996: Taliban proclaimed 1996: Taliban proclaimed the Islamic State of the Islamic State of AfghanistanAfghanistan

Overthrown 2001 after 9/11 Overthrown 2001 after 9/11 attacksattacks

Osama bin LadenOsama bin Laden From a wealthy Yemeni From a wealthy Yemeni

family in S.A.family in S.A.

Aided Afghans to defeat Aided Afghans to defeat Soviet forces Soviet forces

Formed “al Qaeda” Formed “al Qaeda” against U.S. influence in against U.S. influence in Middle East, particularly Middle East, particularly S.A., heartland of IslamS.A., heartland of Islam

1998 Attacks on U.S. 1998 Attacks on U.S. embassies in Kenya and embassies in Kenya and Tanzania and 2000 on Tanzania and 2000 on U.S.S. ColeU.S.S. Cole

9/11 2001 attacks on 9/11 2001 attacks on World Trade TowersWorld Trade Towers

Afghanistan nowAfghanistan now Government of Hamid Government of Hamid

Karzai attempting Karzai attempting reformsreforms

Reemergence of Reemergence of regional warlords and regional warlords and TalibanTaliban

Osama bin Laden still Osama bin Laden still at largeat large

Opium production Opium production skyrocketingskyrocketing

Political Islam-FundamentalismPolitical Islam-Fundamentalism““shadow side of modernity” – develops when modernization is shadow side of modernity” – develops when modernization is well-established, so a reaction against it because:well-established, so a reaction against it because:deep disappointment with modernitydeep disappointment with modernityfear of secularism, liberalism and its valuesfear of secularism, liberalism and its valuespushing religion from the sidelines back to the centerpushing religion from the sidelines back to the centerbegins as an internal dispute within own culture/countrybegins as an internal dispute within own culture/country

Ex. opposing westernizing leaders or policiesEx. opposing westernizing leaders or policies

return to a “golden age” – overstressing traditional valuesreturn to a “golden age” – overstressing traditional values

Ex. putting women back into veils a reactive form of Ex. putting women back into veils a reactive form of modernism, often innovative and radical tactics:modernism, often innovative and radical tactics: withdrawal from societywithdrawal from society forming separate communitiesforming separate communities fighting for survivalfighting for survival revival of faithrevival of faith terrorism (minority)terrorism (minority)

It is easy to provoke this administration. All that we have to do is to send two mujahedeen to the farthest point east to raise a piece of cloth on which in written Al Qaeda, in order to make the generals race there to case America to suffer human, economic and political losses. And then Al Qaeda, no matter what losses it has suffered, will come off once again looking like the strong horse.”

Osama bin Laden, 2004

IranIran 1940s: Britain and USSR 1940s: Britain and USSR

invaded to protect supply invaded to protect supply routesroutes

1951: Mohammad 1951: Mohammad Mossadeq, proponent of Mossadeq, proponent of nationalizing oil, appointed nationalizing oil, appointed Prime MinisterPrime Minister

1953: Mossadeq 1953: Mossadeq overthrown by US and UK overthrown by US and UK intelligence; installation of intelligence; installation of pro-Western Shahpro-Western Shah

1953-79: Iran closely allied 1953-79: Iran closely allied with the U.S.with the U.S.

Iran was highly secularized Iran was highly secularized and Westernizedand Westernized

Shah Muhammad Reza Pahlavi

Iranian Revolution 1979Iranian Revolution 1979 Revolution to overthrow Revolution to overthrow

the regime of the Shah the regime of the Shah

Also a cultural revolution Also a cultural revolution for “revolutionary Islam”for “revolutionary Islam”

1979: Ayatollah 1979: Ayatollah Khomeini established Khomeini established Republic of IranRepublic of Iran

2002 labeled by Pres. 2002 labeled by Pres. Bush part of “axis of Bush part of “axis of evil”evil”

1979-81: 55 Americans were held hostage

Iran nowIran now

Final victor in Iran-Final victor in Iran-Iraq war?Iraq war?

Nuclear ambitions?Nuclear ambitions?

Broker of regional Broker of regional peace? peace?

Upset or balance Upset or balance power vis power vis áá vis vis Israel?Israel?

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

IraqIraq 1918-32 British rule1918-32 British rule

• Even after Even after independence Britain independence Britain retained oil rights retained oil rights and kept military and kept military bases in Iraqbases in Iraq

MonarchyMonarchy military military rulerule Ba’thists Ba’thists

1979 Saddam Hussein 1979 Saddam Hussein took powertook power

Saddam suppressed Saddam suppressed opposition also Kurdish opposition also Kurdish minorityminority

Iran-Iraq War 1980-88Iran-Iraq War 1980-88 War for regional War for regional

domination and rights to domination and rights to the Shatt al-Arab the Shatt al-Arab waterwaywaterway

367,000 died; 700,000 367,000 died; 700,000 woundedwounded

U.S. supported both U.S. supported both sidessides

Precipitated proliferation Precipitated proliferation of U.S. bases in region—of U.S. bases in region—particularly in Saudi particularly in Saudi ArabiaArabia The Iran-Iraq war recalled WWI trench

warfare on Iran-Iraq border

Gulf War Gulf War

1990 Saddam 1990 Saddam Hussein invaded Hussein invaded KuwaitKuwait

1991 put down by 1991 put down by U.S.-led coalitionU.S.-led coalition

Weapons Weapons inspections and inspections and economic economic sanctions beginsanctions begin

America’s “war on terror”America’s “war on terror”

9/11 attacks on World 9/11 attacks on World Trade TowersTrade Towers

1991: Northern 1991: Northern Coalition topples Coalition topples Taliban in AfghanistanTaliban in Afghanistan

2003 : Invasion of 2003 : Invasion of Iraq on charges of Iraq on charges of WMD and aiding and WMD and aiding and abetting terrorismabetting terrorism

U.S. strategy: from deterrence to U.S. strategy: from deterrence to preemptionpreemption

““For much of the last century, America’s defense For much of the last century, America’s defense relied on the relied on the Cold War doctrines of deterrence Cold War doctrines of deterrence and containment.and containment. In some cases, those In some cases, those strategies still apply. But new threats require new strategies still apply. But new threats require new thinking. Deterrence—the promise of massive thinking. Deterrence—the promise of massive retaliation against nations—means nothing against retaliation against nations—means nothing against shadowy terrorist networks with no nation or shadowy terrorist networks with no nation or citizens to defend…. The war on terror cannot be citizens to defend…. The war on terror cannot be won on the defensive. We must take the battle to won on the defensive. We must take the battle to the enemy, disrupt his plans, and confront the worst the enemy, disrupt his plans, and confront the worst threats before they emerge. In the world we have threats before they emerge. In the world we have entered, entered, the only path to safety is the path of the only path to safety is the path of actionaction. And this nation will act…”. And this nation will act…”

George W. Bush, 2002George W. Bush, 2002

“The longer you look at Iraq on the morning after Saddam, the more you see the truth of what many people told me: getting rid of him will be the easy part. After that, the US will find itself caught in a series of conundrums that will require supreme finesse:

to liberate without appearing to dominate

to ensure order without overstaying

to security is interests without trampling on Iraq’sto oversee democratization without picking winners

to push for reforms in the neighborhood without unleashing demons

“Dreaming of Democracy”by George Packer

NYTimes Magazine, 3/2/03

Iraq nowIraq now U.S. forces have been in Iraq longer than they fought in World U.S. forces have been in Iraq longer than they fought in World

War IIWar II

U.S. is currently spending approximately 2 billion dollars/week U.S. is currently spending approximately 2 billion dollars/week on Iraq; nearly 100 Americans are dying every monthon Iraq; nearly 100 Americans are dying every month

Over 3000 American forces have been killed. 1 in 16 Over 3000 American forces have been killed. 1 in 16 American service personnel woundedAmerican service personnel wounded

Estimates vary for Iraqis:Estimates vary for Iraqis:• 655,000 [Lancet Survey]655,000 [Lancet Survey]• 50-55,000 [Iraq Body Count Project]50-55,000 [Iraq Body Count Project]• 100-150,000 [Iraq Health Minister]100-150,000 [Iraq Health Minister]

Sectarian violence between Sunni and Shia.Sectarian violence between Sunni and Shia.

al Qaeda in Iraq.al Qaeda in Iraq.

Prognosis according to the Prognosis according to the Iraq Study Group ReportIraq Study Group Report

““The situation in Iraq The situation in Iraq is grave and is grave and deteriorating. deteriorating. There is no path There is no path that can guarantee that can guarantee success, but the success, but the prospects can be prospects can be improved…”improved…”

This bipartisan study was publishedin December 2006.

KURDISH AREAS

Recommendations of the Recommendations of the Iraq Study Group ReportIraq Study Group Report

GOAL: an Iraq that can “govern itself, sustain itself, defend GOAL: an Iraq that can “govern itself, sustain itself, defend itself”itself”

Externally:Externally: Build an international support structure both outside and Build an international support structure both outside and

within M.E.within M.E. Work with Iran and Syria to stabilize IraqWork with Iran and Syria to stabilize Iraq Work to resolve Palestinian-Israeli conflictWork to resolve Palestinian-Israeli conflict

Internally:Internally: Continue providing military, political, and economic support Continue providing military, political, and economic support

only if Iraqi government makes progress toward national only if Iraqi government makes progress toward national reconciliation, security and governancereconciliation, security and governance

Restate that U.S. does not intend to establish permanent U.S. Restate that U.S. does not intend to establish permanent U.S. bases in Iraq; nor does it wish to control oilbases in Iraq; nor does it wish to control oil

U.S. must engage all parties except al Qaeda. U.S. must engage all parties except al Qaeda.

Options cited in the Options cited in the Iraq Study Group ReportIraq Study Group Report

Quick withdrawal: “A premature American departure from Quick withdrawal: “A premature American departure from Iraq would almost certainly produce greater sectarian Iraq would almost certainly produce greater sectarian violence and further deterioration of conditions…”violence and further deterioration of conditions…”

Stay the course: “Current U.S. policy is not working, as the Stay the course: “Current U.S. policy is not working, as the level of violence in Iraq is rising and the government is not level of violence in Iraq is rising and the government is not advancing national reconciliation…”advancing national reconciliation…”

More troops: “…if the Iraqi government does not make More troops: “…if the Iraqi government does not make political progress, ‘all the troops in the world will not political progress, ‘all the troops in the world will not provide security.’” provide security.’”

Devolution to three regions [Shia, Sunni, Kurdish]: “A rapid Devolution to three regions [Shia, Sunni, Kurdish]: “A rapid devolution could result in mass population movements, devolution could result in mass population movements, collapse of the Iraqi security forces, strengthening of collapse of the Iraqi security forces, strengthening of militias, ethnic cleansing, destabilization of neighboring militias, ethnic cleansing, destabilization of neighboring states, or attempts of neighboring states to dominate Iraqi states, or attempts of neighboring states to dominate Iraqi regions…”regions…”

Good Interactive map – Where is the oil? Who has what for how long?:

http://wolf.readinglitho.co.uk/mainpages/oilmap.html

Crude Oil Imports to US Top 10 Countries, February 2006

Oil Consumption

Greenhouse Gas Emissions