Nuclear Nonproliferation Policy of the Russian Federation · PIR Center Report 2014 FOM opinion poll Dr. Vladimir Orlov 11 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 USA m e a ia l an ea Iran a s Which

Nuclear Nonproliferation Policy of the Russian Federation

Head, Center for Global Trends and International Organizations, Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation

@Orlov_PIRCenter [email protected]

Lecture 1October 2, 2018

Founder & Special Advisor, PIR Center

Professor, MGIMO

Dr. Vladimir Orlov

LECTURE 1. FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION: UNDERSTANDING THE PRIORITIES AND THREAT PERCEPTIONS (1)

Dr. Vladimir Orlov 2

PART 1. RUSSIA IN THE GLOBAL CONTEXT

Dr. Vladimir Orlov

The WCIOM opinion poll conducted in May, 2018

What goals should Russia pursue in the 21st century?


31

58

7

4

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Return a superpower status-the one the USSR had

Be one of some 10-15 developed and politically high-powered countries

Become a leader for the former Soviet Union

Russia should not pursue any global aims

(closed question, one answer)

2014 2016 2018

Will Russia manage to become a great power in the nearest 15-20 years?



35

11

49

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Most probably,yes

Most probably,not

Russia is already a great power

(closed question, one answer)

2014 2016 2018

What shall Russia do to be considered as a great power?

Dr. Vladimir Orlov


6

26

2217

5

5

5

4

44 3

(open question, no more than 3 answers)

Efficient and well-armed army

Willpower and spirit of the people

Good and strong President

Vast reserves of natural resources

The world's largest country

Independent policy

Russian foreign policy

Economic development of the country

Nuclear weapons

World's best weapon

RUSSIA PARTICIPATES IN KEY GLOBAL FORUMS

The USThe UK France

G7Canada

GermanyItaly

Japan

P5

G20

Australia The EU Argentina Indonesia MexicoSouth Korea Saudi Arabia Turkey

Dr. Vladimir Orlov

RussiaChina

BRICSBrazilIndiaSouth Africa

7

FOUR PILLARS OF RUSSIA’S POWER AND STABILITY

• Nuclear weapons

• Energy resources

• High educational level

• Cultural heritage


ARSENALS OF NUCLEAR-WEAPON STATES (ESTIMATES)

Source: Federation of American Scientists, May 2018

Dr. Vladimir Orlov9

Country Deployed warheadsReady-to-use non-strategic

nuclear warheadsNuclear warheads in

reserve

Total inventory

1,600 150 2,050 6,450

1,600 - 2,750 6,850

120 - 95 215

280 - 10 300

- 270 270

WHAT AROUSES ANXIETY AND CONCERN IN YOUR MIND REGARDING THE INTERNATIONAL SITUATION?

The FOM Public Poll, April 2018

Dr. Vladimir Orlov10

36

33

24

2118

16

16

13

11

66

6 5 5

(no more than 3 answers)

Nuclear war

Chemical and radiation contamination of water, air, products

Clogging the planet with waste

International terrorism

Depletion of natural resources for energy and nutrition

Deforestraction

Epidemics, the spread of AIDS

Natural disaster

Climate change

Plants and animals extinctions

Planet overpopulation

Ozone layer deplition

Space disaster, meteorite or comet collision

Nothing arouses anxiety and concern

WHO WILL USE OR THREATEN TO USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS?(1)

2006Opinion Poll "Attitudes in the Russian

Federation towards WMD Proliferation and Terrorism". PIR Center Report

2014FOM opinion poll


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

USA

Un

ited

Kin

gdo

m

Fran

ce

Ch

ina

Ind

ia

Isra

el

Pak

ista

n

No

rth

Ko

rea

Iran

Al-

Qae

da

Ch

ech

en t

erro

rist

s

Which of the

countries or

organizations

poses a threat to

Russia associated

with the use of

WMD?

2017Survey of the WCIOM

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

USA

Un

ited

Kin

gdo

m

Fran

ce

Ch

ina

Ind

ia

Isra

el

Pak

ista

n

No

rth

Ko

rea

Ru

ssia

Oth

er c

ou

ntr

ies

From which country

does the threat of

use of nuclear

weapon

emanate?(%)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

USA

Un

ited

Kin

gdo

m

Fran

ce

Ch

ina

Ind

ia

Isra

el

Pak

ista

n

No

rth

Ko

rea

Iran

Which of following

states, in your

opinion, poses a

threat of use of

WMD (%)

WHO WILL USE OR THREATEN TO USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS?(2)

Heard about the threat of a nuclear attack against South Korea and the

United States by North Korea

81%

Believe North Korea has the intention to strike 39%

Don't believe North Korea has the intention to strike 43%

Consider North Korea a potential aggressor 13%

Believe that if the weapon is used it is most likely to be against the

United States

51%

Believe that if the weapon is used it is most likely to be against South

Korea

33%

Believe that if the weapon is used, it is most likely to be against Russia 3%

Propose to give countries freedom in developing nuclear weapons 41%

Consider it necessary to isolate countries developing nuclear weapons

from the international community

38%

Believe Russia should mediate in negotiations in the Korean peninsula

conflict

73%

Believe Russia should not participate in solving the conflict 19%

The VCIOM Public Poll, May 201712

ENERGY RESOURCES

International Herald Tribune, January 9, 2007


Leading global oil and gas producers, 2018

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2018

Oil Natural gas


CountryMln tones per

annum

Saudi Arabia 585.7

Russia 554.3

USA 543,0

Iraq 218,9

Canada 218,2

Iran 216,4

China 199,7

The UAE 182,4

Kuwait 152,7

Brazil 136,7

Country

Bln cubic meters per annum

USA 749,2

Russia 579,4

Iran 202,4

Qatar 181,2

Canada 152,0

China 138,4

Norway 116,6

Saudi Arabia 109,4

Algeria 91,3

Australia 91,2

“ROSATOM” GLOBAL PRESENCE, 2018

Source: www.rosatom.ru/en/global-presence/Geographic coverage: 50 statesForeign orders: $ 133,50 blnPortfolio for 2018 year: 36 blocks


Source: The World Bank, April 2018.

The World Factbook (CIA), 2018

World largest economies, 2018


Country

Annual GDP at current prices (US$ millions)

Inflation

(%)

Unemployment level

(%)

USA 18,569 1.3 4,9

China 11,199 2,0 4,6

Japan 4,939 -0,1 3,1

Germany 3,466 0,5 4,3

United Kingdom 2,618 0,6 4,8

France 2,465 0,2 10,0

India 2,263 4,9 3,5

Italy 1,849 -0,1 11,5

Brazil 1,796 8,7 11,5

Russia 1,578 2,5 4,9Canada 1,529 1,4 7,1

Spain 1,232 -0,2 19,4

Mexico 1,045 2,8 4,0

RUSSIA’S MAJOR TRADING PARTNERS IN 2018

Source: Ministry for Economic Developmentof the Russian Federation (January - July, 2018)


1574

4137

7413

6835

9166

8610

5926

13051

12411

23954

18976

30583

1965

6104

3198

4945

2871

3930

7514

2355

6872

2221

14673

28725

Italy

France

Kazakhstan

Japan

Poland

South Korea

USA

Turkey

Belarus

Netherlands

Germany

China

Export Import

HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX:G7, RUSSIA, AND BRICS COUNTRIES, 2018

Position Life expectancy at birth (years)Expected years of schooling (years)

Gross national income per capita

(PPP US$)

Human Development Index Value

5 Germany 81.2 17.0 46,136 0.953

12 Canada 82.5 16.4 43,433 0.926

13 The US 79.5 16.5 54,941 0.924

14 The UK 81.7 17.4 39,116 0.922

19 Japan 83.9 15.2 38,986 0.909

24 France 82.7 16.4 39,254 0.901

28 Italy 83.2 16.3 35,299 0.880

47 Argentina 76.7 17.4 18,461 0.825

48 Oman 77.3 13.9 36,290 0.821

49 Russia 71.2 15.5 24,233 0.816

50 Montenegro 77.3 14.9 16,779 0.814

51 Bulgaria 74.9 14.8 18,740 0.813

79 Brazil 75.7 15.4 13,755 0.759

86 China 76.4 13.8 15,270 0.752

113 South Africa 63.4 13.3 11,923 0.699

130 India 68.8 6,353 6,353 0.640

Source: Human Development Report 2018 Dr. Vladimir Orlov18

Russia’s cultural heritage


TOP-10 LANGUAGES SPOKEN IN TODAY'S WORLD(MLN SPEAKERS)

Source: the encyclopedia «Ethnologue», 2018Dr. Vladimir Orlov 20

LanguageNumber of countries

COUNTRIES MLN PEOPLE

1. Chinese 38China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines, Macau, Cambodia 1,299

2. Spanish 31Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, Spain, USA, Venezuela, Peru, Chile, Cuba, Ecuador, Dominican Republic , Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Puerto Rico, Costa Rica, Uruguay, Panama

442

3. English 118

USA, UK, Canada, Australia, South Africa, New Zealand, Jordania, Zimbabwe, Mexico, Barbados, Singapore, Namibia, Israel, Sri Lanka, Germany, Puerto Rico, Japan, Ecuador, Papua New Guinea, Zambia, Philippines, Italy, GUAM, Venezuela, Honduras, Malawi, Denmark

378

4. Arab 58

Egypt, Algeria, Morocco, Iraq, Sudan, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, Libya , Jordan, Lebanon, Mauritania, Palestinian authority, Israel, Iran, France, Oman, Turkey, Argentina, UAE, Kuwait, Chad, Bahrain, Niger, Tanzania, USA, Netherlands, Belgium, Eritrea, Malta, Qatar, Nigeria

315

5. Hindi 4 India, South Africa, Bangladesh, Uganda, Yemen 260

6. Bengal 4 Bangladesh, India, UAE, Saudi Arabi 243

7. Portuguese 15Brazil, Portugal, France, Paraguay, South Africa, USA, India, Luxembourg, Canada, Switzerland, Belgium, Germany, Angola, Mozambique, Uruguay 223

8. Russian 18Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Belarus, Latvia, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Israel, Georgia, Germany, Turkmenistan, Lithuania, USA, Tajikistan, Armenia, Poland

154

9. Japanese 2Japan, USA, Brazil, Peru, Canada, Mexico, Argentina, Singapore, Germany, Paraguay, Australia, UK, Taiwan 128

10. Lahnda 6 Pakistan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore 119

USAGE OF LANGUAGES FOR WEBSITES CONTENT, 2018 (%)


52,3

6,2

6,2

5,1

4,2

4,1

2,8

2,5

2

1,9

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

English

Russian

German

Spanish

Japanese

French

Portuguese

Italian

Chinese

Farsi

% web pages

Source: Statistics on the use of different languages on the Internet, W3Techs, 2018

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Nuclear Nonproliferation Policy of the Russian Federation · PIR Center Report 2014 FOM opinion poll Dr. Vladimir Orlov 11 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 USA m e a ia l an ea Iran a s Which