Northern Mid-Atlantic Cool-Season Damaging Wind Events

An examination of methodology and technology.

Raymond KruzdloWFO Mount Holly, New Jersey

Severe Weather Technology ConferenceJuly 12, 2005

Type of event

Severe level(50 kts or greater) synoptic winds combined with shallow convection in the form on long linear lines(sometimes broken)

Little or, in many cases, no lightning(limited instability)

Short duration damaging winds

Methodology

ROML E-8-98, Section V. Combined Synoptic and Mesoscale Events.

Uses a time-filtered approach to classify events.

Methodology

If the superposed convective wind event is expected to equal or exceed warning values for ONE HOUR or more, then a NPW(High Wind Warning) is recommended. If LESS THAN ONE HOUR, a SVR(Severe Thunderstorm Warning) is recommended.

Advisory levels, Wind Advisory vs. NOW

October 15 , 2003

KDOX (Dover AFB) radar 16-level base reflectivity data at 0243 UTC on 15 October, 2003 (left), and corresponding base velocity (right).

October 15, 2003

KDIX radar 256-level base reflectivity data at 0428 UTC on 15 October 2003 (left) and corresponding base velocity (right).

Technology

WWA or GHG to compose High Wind Warning Long, tedious process

WARNGEN to compose Severe Thunderstorm Warning Simplistic and quick

Questions to Ask

Is the public(our customers) served? Questions from storm surveys Give public more recognition, they have become

more knowledgeable Are we painting an accurate picture?

Do we need to reexamine methodology(policy)?

Do we have the technology in place?