NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory SAN FRANCISCO BAY OPERATIONAL FORECAST SYSTEM Background and Planning Meetings Background and Planning Meetings

NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory

SAN FRANCISCO BAYSAN FRANCISCO BAY OPERATIONAL FORECAST SYSTEM OPERATIONAL FORECAST SYSTEM

Background and Planning MeetingsBackground and Planning Meetings Historical PerspectivesHistorical Perspectives Recent PerspectivesRecent Perspectives Key Hydrodynamic ProcessesKey Hydrodynamic Processes PORTSPORTS Suggested ApproachesSuggested Approaches Next StepsNext Steps

Richard A. Schmalz July 19, 2010Richard A. Schmalz July 19, 2010


Background and Planning MeetingsBackground and Planning Meetings

October 9, 2009 CSDL Preliminary Planning October 9, 2009 CSDL Preliminary Planning MeetingMeeting

IOOS/RA Reviews California CoastlineIOOS/RA Reviews California Coastline USGS San Francisco Bay Modeling ReviewUSGS San Francisco Bay Modeling Review

May 6, 2010 CSDL Follow-up Planning MeetingMay 6, 2010 CSDL Follow-up Planning MeetingFVCOM User Workshop ReviewFVCOM User Workshop Review California Current System Modeling ReviewCalifornia Current System Modeling ReviewAGU Ocean Sciences Meeting Abstract ReviewsAGU Ocean Sciences Meeting Abstract Reviews


Historical PerspectiveHistorical Perspective

NOS 1979-1980 Circulation Survey Report 7NOS 1979-1980 Circulation Survey Report 7

R.T. Cheng, USGS retired, OFS—2d TRIMR.T. Cheng, USGS retired, OFS—2d TRIM

Customized windfield provided by F. Ludwig, Customized windfield provided by F. Ludwig, Stanford UniversityStanford Universitywebsite semi-operational---R. Smith, USGSwebsite semi-operational---R. Smith, USGS



Recent PerspectivesRecent Perspectives

NOS Historical Circulation Survey Data NOS Historical Circulation Survey Data Restoration CSDL Tech Note 9.Restoration CSDL Tech Note 9.

Movement towards 3d unstructured grids Movement towards 3d unstructured grids in recent model studies: unTRIM, in recent model studies: unTRIM, SUNTANS, and FVCOM.SUNTANS, and FVCOM.

San Francisco Bay-Delta UnTRIM Model San Francisco Bay-Delta UnTRIM Model Calibration Report, California Calibration Report, California Department of Water Resources, Department of Water Resources, December 2008.December 2008.



Key Hydrodynamic ProcessesKey Hydrodynamic Processes

Upwelling/Downwelling dynamics—California Upwelling/Downwelling dynamics—California Current (ROMS OSU and JPL models)Current (ROMS OSU and JPL models) Internal wave generation—nonhydrostatic Internal wave generation—nonhydrostatic SUNTANS and ROMS coupling (Fringer et al., SUNTANS and ROMS coupling (Fringer et al., Oceanography, 2006)Oceanography, 2006) Shelf-Bay interactionShelf-Bay interaction Salinity intrusion and Delta dynamicsSalinity intrusion and Delta dynamics Wetting-drying of tidal flats in the northern Wetting-drying of tidal flats in the northern BayBay Inundation associated with coastal stormsInundation associated with coastal storms




USGS/NOS Real-time C/T SensorsUSGS/NOS Real-time C/T Sensors

Plans for USGS real-time C/T sensor networkPlans for USGS real-time C/T sensor network

Proposed addition of PORTS C/T sensors at Proposed addition of PORTS C/T sensors at allall PORTS water level gauges pending fundingPORTS water level gauges pending funding

Cooperation with USGS in station location Cooperation with USGS in station location selectionselection and maintenance of selected stationsand maintenance of selected stations


VDATUM California Coast Grid


VDATUM Grid in the vicinity ofSan Francisco Bay


VDATUM San Francisco Bay Bathymetry


Suggested Phase I TasksSuggested Phase I Tasks

Use FVCOM Version 3.1Use FVCOM Version 3.1 Modify VDATUM California grid using Modify VDATUM California grid using

SMSSMS Consider Apr-May 1979 and Sep-Oct Consider Apr-May 1979 and Sep-Oct

19801980

for initial tidal and hindcast for initial tidal and hindcast simulationssimulations


USGS/NOS Modeling USGS/NOS Modeling Cooperative EffortsCooperative Efforts

Phase I consistent with recent unstructured grid modeling Phase I consistent with recent unstructured grid modeling approaches, builds on VDATUM grid and bathymetry, and approaches, builds on VDATUM grid and bathymetry, and uses recovered historical NOS data employed by Ralph uses recovered historical NOS data employed by Ralph Cheng, USGS, for comparison of modeling results.Cheng, USGS, for comparison of modeling results.

Unstructured modeling approach allows NOS FVCOM Unstructured modeling approach allows NOS FVCOM modeling approach to be coordinated with unTRIM modeling approach to be coordinated with unTRIM modeling efforts by Jon Burau, USGS, Sacramento.modeling efforts by Jon Burau, USGS, Sacramento.

Assistance and cooperation in the development of the Assistance and cooperation in the development of the Delta inflow boundary conditions, particularly during the Delta inflow boundary conditions, particularly during the historical 1979-1980 hindcast.historical 1979-1980 hindcast.


Suggested Phase II TasksSuggested Phase II Tasks

Extend the tidal and hindcast periods Extend the tidal and hindcast periods from April 1979 – October 1980.from April 1979 – October 1980.

Perform formal tidal and hindcast skill Perform formal tidal and hindcast skill assessments.assessments.

Efforts underway with USGS:Efforts underway with USGS:

Ralph Cheng, Jeff Gartner, and Jon Ralph Cheng, Jeff Gartner, and Jon Burau to obtain CTD and current meter Burau to obtain CTD and current meter datasets.datasets.


Suggested Phase III TasksSuggested Phase III Tasks

Transfer and couple San Francisco Transfer and couple San Francisco Bay FVCOM to shelf forecast models Bay FVCOM to shelf forecast models at NCEPat NCEP ETSS/G-NCOM ETSS/G-NCOM NOS West Coast Shelf ModelNOS West Coast Shelf Model

Perform formal skill assessment of Perform formal skill assessment of NCEP coupled San Francisco Bay NCEP coupled San Francisco Bay FVCOM nowcasts and forecastsFVCOM nowcasts and forecasts


Next StepsNext Steps

Review and edit NOS Circulation Survey Current, Review and edit NOS Circulation Survey Current, CT, and CTD datasetsCT, and CTD datasets

Obtain historical water level data 1979-1980Obtain historical water level data 1979-1980 Obtain water level and PORTS current station HA Obtain water level and PORTS current station HA

resultsresults Perform HA (15-day) on historical current dataPerform HA (15-day) on historical current data Revise VDATUM grid and bathymetriesRevise VDATUM grid and bathymetries Develop additional water level, current, and densityDevelop additional water level, current, and density

station locations---station locations--- initially measure conductivity initially measure conductivity at PORTS water level stations.at PORTS water level stations.


Organization Role Comments

OCS/CSDL/MMAP Sponsor

NOS/CO-OPS Sponsor, Stakeholder, Customer

NWS/NCEP Sponsor, Stakeholder, Customer

IOOS Regional Associations Stakeholder

USGS Stakeholder

Marine navigation community End user

Emergency response community End user

Environmental management community End user

Stakeholders


FY 2010 – 2015 Development and Implementation Schedule for NOS Operational Forecast Systems

Fiscal Year of Operational

Delivery

Water Body of new Operational Model

Water Body of Retrofitted

Operational Model

Hydrodynamic Model Selected

# of Operational Models on NOS

Computers

# of Operational Models on NOAA High Performance

Computers (HPC)

FY10

Tampa Bay

Delaware Bay

Chesapeake Bay

5 Great Lakes

ROMS

ROMS

ROMS

POM (GLERL)

3 8

FY11

Columbia River

Northern Gulf of Mexico (New Orleans to Mobile)

SELFE

FVCOM 3 10

FY12

Gulf of Mexico Region (Sabine Pass to New Orleans)

San Francisco

Galveston Bay(part of Northern Gulf of

Mexico)

FVCOM

ROMS or FVCOM

2 12

FY13

Eastern GOM-WFS

Puget Sound

FVCOM

FVCOM2 14

FY14

Cook Inlet

Huron Erie Corridor (GLERL) 5 Great Lakes

St. Johns River

ROMS or FVCOM

FVCOM (GLERL)

ROMS or FVCOM

1 17

FY15

Narragansett Bay/Long Island Sound

West Coast Shelf

New York/New Jersey ROMS or FVCOM

ROMS or FVCOM0

19


Milestone Duration Completion Date

Concept

Approve Project Charter 1 month July 2010

Feasibility

Review of existing models; observation data mining & analysis 2 months August 2010

Gate review/Approve Feasibility Summary 1 month August 2010

Project Planning (Detailed)

Key planning tasks 1 month September 2010

Develop PMP 2 months October 2010

Gate review/Approval of the PMP Executive Summary 1 month October 2010

Development and Testing

Model set up 6 months March 2011

Tidal skill assesment 4 months July 2011

Hindcast skill assessment 6 months January 2012

Nowcast/Forecast skill assessment 4 months May 2012

Gate review 1 month June 2012

Deployment

Nowcast/forecast system implementation 2 months August 2012

Customer acceptance (CO-OPS) 1 month September 2012

Gate review 1 month September 2012

Project Closure

1 month October 2012

High Level Project Schedule and Milestones


Project Initiation Team Role

No. Who(if known)or TBD

% Time or Hours

Dates Needed(Date Range)

Name of Manager

MMAP Supervisor 1 Frank Aikman 10% On-going Mary Erickson

Project Manager 1 Richard Schmalz 50% 5/2010-10/2012 Frank Aikman

Physical Scientist support 1 Philip Richardson 50% 5/2010-10/2012 Frank Aikman

FVCOM Consultation 2 Changshen Chen and Robert Beardsley

60 hrs ea 7/2010-10/2012 Frank Aikman

CO-OPS transition to operations

1 Aijun Zhang 10% 7/2010-10/2012 Peter Stone

NCEP/NCO support 1 Chris Magee 10% 7/2010-10/2012 Ben Kyger

Resource Requirements for Project Planning (High Level) .

Documents

NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory SAN FRANCISCO BAY OPERATIONAL FORECAST SYSTEM Background and Planning Meetings Background and Planning Meetings