OPERATION

SAFESURROUNDINGS

(OPSS)::

THEEVIDENCE-BASED

VIOLENCEPREVENTIONSTRATEGY

By

JoelM.Caplan

LeslieW.Kennedy

OnBehalfOf

TheRutgersCenteronPublicSecurity

IssuesinSpatialAnalysisSeries,Vol.2

EditedbyJ.M.CaplanandL.W.Kennedy

2019

Newark,NewJersey

USA

2

Copyright©2019.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthisdocumentmaybe

reproducedinanymannerwithoutwrittenpermissionbythecopyright

holders.

SuggestedCitation

Caplan,J.M.andKennedy,L.W.(2019).IssuesinSpatialAnalysisSeries:

Vol. 2. Operation Safe Surroundings: The Evidence-Based Violence

PreventionStrategy.Newark,NJ:RutgersCenteronPublicSecurity.

ProducedbytheRutgersCenteronPublicSecurity

Based at Rutgers University's School of Criminal Justice, the Rutgers

CenteronPublicSecurity(RCPS)offersamultidisciplinaryapproachto

the academic study and practical application of ways in which

democraticsocietiescaneffectivelyaddresscrime,terrorismandother

threats to public security. This involves the prevention of, protection

fromandresponsetonaturalorman-madeeventsthatcouldendanger

the safety or security of people or property in a given area. RCPS

engages in innovative data analysis and information dissemination,

including the use of GIS, for strategic decision-making and tactical

action.

Visitwww.rutgerscps.org

3

CONTENTSOPERATIONSAFESURROUNDINGS(OPSS)

CHAPTER1: MAXIMIZINGLOCALRESOURCES......................................5

CHAPTER2: IMPLEMENTINGOPSS........................................................9

CHAPTER3: ANALYSESANDMETHODSFOROPSS............................14

CHAPTER4: INTERVENTIONSFOCUSEDATPLACES..........................17

CHAPTER5: EVIDENCE-BASEDSUPPORTFOROPSS........................20

REFERENCES...............................................................................................29

4

5

CHAPTER1MaximizingLocalResources

WhyOperationSafeSurroundings?

EnhancePublicSafetywithExistingResources

ProblemStatement

Violentcrimeisaproblemandfrequentcauseforconcern

voicedbymanyconstituents.Traditionalperson-oriented

lawenforcementresponsestoviolentcrimeproblems,

focusedondeterrenceorincapacitation,raisemany

complexissues.Asoleemphasisonlawenforcementand

otherpolicingtacticstorespondtoviolentcrimespikeshas

mixedevidenceofsuccessandsustainability,andraises

notableciviljusticeandpublicrelationsissues.Economic

andsocialissuesmustalsobeconsideredwhendeveloping

acomprehensiveviolencepreventionstrategy.

Policingtacticsoftenshapeviolencepreventionstrategies

andundulyraiseexpectationsthatthecriminaljustice

system,alone,cansolvecrimeproblems.This

inappropriatelyminimizestheburdenandrolesthat

multipleotherstakeholdersshouldplaytomitigatechronic

6

problemsatriskyplaces.Multipleresourcesneedtobe

coordinatedinoptimalwaystorespondtoandreduce

violentcrimeandtoenhancepublicsafety.

LocalNeeds

• Maximizeexistingresourcestofocusonplacesand

peoplewiththegreatestneedsinordertoreducecrime

andenhancepublicsafety.

• Balancepolicingandlawenforcementtacticswithall

otheroptions.

• Establishanevidence-basedstrategythatisdata-

driven,transparentandsustainable.

Solution

OperationSafeSurroundings(OpSS)isadata-driven,

transparentandsustainablestrategyforcrimeprevention

andriskmitigationthroughcoordinated,multi-stakeholder,

resourcedeploymentsthatdisruptsituationalcontextsof

illegalbehavior.

OperationSafeSurroundingsestablishesaforumand

evidence-basedprocessforproblem-solvingandtactical

7

decision-makingforresponsiveactionsandfollow-upsthat

enhancepublicsafetyviariskgovernance.

Whilelawenforcementiscommonlyusedasasynonymfor

policing,OpSSacknowledgesthatneithertacticisa

comprehensivestrategyforviolenceprevention,inandof

itself.Therefore,OpSSmakescleardistinctionsamong

theseconceptswithinthecontextofpublicsafety,which

refersmorebroadlytothegeneralwelfareandprotection

ofthepublicfromvariousdangersaffectingpeople,

propertyandcollectivewell-being.

Policing,LawEnforcementandPublicSafety

Policingcanbebothplace-basedandperson-oriented,

whereaslawenforcementfocusesonlyonpeoplewho

violatethelaw.Publicsafetyinvolvespolicingandlaw

enforcementplusothertacticsandresources.

• Policingencompassesawiderangeofactivities

carriedoutbypoliceofficerstocontroltheaffairsof

acommunity,especiallywithrespectto

maintenanceoforder,law,health,andsafety.

8

Policingcanbebothplace-basedandperson-

oriented.

• Lawenforcementisakeyfunctionofpolicingthat

refersspecificallytoenforcingthewrittenrules

governingsocietybydiscovering,deterring,

stopping,and/orseizingpeoplewhoviolatethelaw.

• Publicsafetyrefersmorebroadlytothegeneral

welfareandprotectionofthepublicfromvarious

dangersaffectingpeople,property,andcollective

well-being.Policingandlawenforcementaffect

publicsafety;multipletacticsandstakeholderscan

enhancepublicsafety.‘Safesurroundings’connotes

theimportanceofreducingthreatsandriskswithin

one’spersonalspacethroughplace-basedstrategies

andtactics.

9

CHAPTER2ImplementingOpSS

TheStructureandProcess

8StepsforData-InformedActions

1. Convenean“OpSSTaskforce”comprisedofkey

communitystakeholders.

a. Ataminimum,thisshouldincludeofficialsfrom

mostcitydepartmentsandpublicsafety

programsalreadyunderway.Selected

representativesofcommunityagencies(e.g.,

NPOs)andlocalbusinessesmayalsobeincluded.

b. Thisoftenworksbestwhenspearheadedbya

policechief,citymayor,ordistrict

attorney’s/prosecutor’soffice.

2. Prioritizecurrentproblemissues(e.g.,robbery;

shootings;drugs;burglary;motorvehicletheft).OpSS

canworkforviolentandpropertycrimes,aswellas

otherpublicsafetythreats.

10

3. AnalyzespatialandtemporalcrimepatternswithRisk

TerrainModeling(RTM)todiagnoseenvironmental

conditionsthatleadtotheseoutcomes(e.g.vacantand

abandonedproperties).

4. Specifyrisknarrativesthatconnecttothecrime

problemandaddsituationalcontexts,basedontherisk

factorsidentifiedbytheriskterrainmodel(s).

a. Note:risknarrativesmaychangeovertime,

comparedtoprioriterationsofthisstep.

5. Prescriberesponsiveactionstodisrupttherisk

narratives.Thesemayincludenewinitiativesor

policies,and/orthereallocationofexistingresources

(i.e.,patrols,activities,programs)toplaceswiththe

greatestneeds.

6. Coordinateresponsiveactionsanddesignatetask

managerstooverseethem.

11

7. Prioritizeriskyplacesonamapanddeployresources

totheselocations.

a. Deploymentsshouldlastapproximately30days,

withdatacollectedaboutwhatactionswere

implemented,where,bywhom,andatwhat

levelsofintensity.

b. Coordinateandsetexpectationswithcommunity

membersandgroupsalreadyworkingtoaddress

problemsatpriorityplaces.

8. Re-convenetheOpSSTaskforceevery4-6weeksand

iteratesteps2-7basedonnewanalysesand

information.

a. Crimepatternsandriskyplacesarelikelyto

changeinresponsetosuccessfulresponsive

actions.RTManalysesaresensitivetothisand

shouldbere-runaccordingly.

b. PriortothenextOpSSTaskforcemeeting,

analystscanevaluateoutcomesfromthe

responsiveactionsalreadycompleted,update

12

datasets,anddiagnosenewcrimepatternswith

RTMtoproduceactionablereportsfor

discussion.

i. Useevaluationsandreportstomeasure

successand,asappropriate,tomanage

expectationsandstrengthenpublic

relations.

c. Considerthefollowingwhenevaluating

outcomes:

i. ChangestoRelativeRiskValues(RRVs)of

targetedriskfactorsamongpre/postrisk

terrainmodels.

ii. Changestotheintensityofriskatplaces

ontheriskterrainmaps(i.e.,Relative

RiskScoresofplacesovertime)

iii. Changestocrimecounts/rates

13

iv. Predictivevalidityofriskterrainmodels,

andyourselectedtargetareas.

d. Groundtruthresultsasawayofdetermining

progressinriskmitigationandimproving

surroundings.Thiscanincludesoliciting

communityinput,visitingsitesforimprovement,

andcollectingprogressreportsfromagencies

responsibleforneighborhoodimprovementand

upkeep.

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CHAPTER3AnalysesandMethodsforOpSS

RiskTerrainModeling(RTM)

ToIdentifyandDiagnoseRiskyPlaces

RiskTerrainModeling(RTM)isananalyticaltechniquethat

diagnosesenvironmentalconditionsthatleadtocrime(or

otherproblems).Itbringsmultiplesourcesofdatatogether

byconnectingthemtogeographicplaces,thenperforms

statisticalcalculations.

RTMaddssituationalcontextstodataandforecastsnew

locationsforcrimestoemergeorpersist.RTMiseasilywith

RTMDxsoftwarefromRutgersUniversity(rtmdx.com).

RiskNarratives

StoriesthatConnecttotheCrimeProblem

Risknarrativesconnectenvironmentalfeaturesidentified

throughRTM(e.g.seefigurebelow)tothesituational

contextsforillegalbehaviorsthatresultincrimesatthese

places.Riskfactorswilllikelydifferfordifferentcrime

15

typesandacrossdifferentcities,sorisknarrativesmay

differtoo.

Arisknarrativeisaspokenorwrittenaccountofplaces,

peopleandbehaviorsthatconnecttocrimeproblemsat

particularplaces.Itconsidersdynamicinteractionsof

peopleatplacesthatcanbeunderstood(orhypothesized)

andthendisrupted.

Risknarrativesofferanopportunitytosolicitinputfrom

multipleperspectivesandtoaddnewmeaningsand

contextstoanalyticalproducts.

Forexample,inonecity,bodegas,vacantbuildingsandgas

stationswerediagnosedasriskfactorsforviolentcrimeby

theRTM.Acommunitystakeholderexplainedhowmany

16

youthhangoutafterschoolnearcornerstores/bodegas

wheretheycaneasilycongregateandgetfood,drinks,and

itemstosmokeatnearbyvacantbuildings.Bodegascloseat

10p.m.,asrequiredbycityordinance,butgasstationswith

foodmartsareexempted.These24-houraday/7-daya

weekgasstationsprovidespaceandsuppliesforyouthto

congregatelateatnight,creatingauniquecontextforturf

conflict,offending,orvictimization.

Inanothercity,localresidentscomplainedaboutvacant

propertiesthatwereusedforillicitbehaviors,butwithso

manyvacantpropertiesinthecity,thetasktoaddressallof

themwasdaunting.RTMobjectivelyconnectedvacant

propertiestoviolentcrimeproblemsatparticularplaces.

Thisenabledcityagenciestoprioritizeresourcestoboard-

upandsecurevacantpropertiesatthehighest-riskplaces

asacrimepreventiontactic.

Seealso:riskterrainmodeling.com/situational-context.html

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CHAPTER4InterventionsFocusedatPlaces

DisruptRiskNarratives

ResponsiveActionsFocusonKeyFactorsatRiskyPlaces

Risknarrativessupportreasoningwithhypotheses,

wherebypreconceivednotionsaboutacrimeproblemand

itsrelationshipstospaceandtimecanbechallenged,or

clarified.

Becauserisknarrativesarticulatecrimeproblemsin

diverseways,multiplestakeholderscanbeengagedto

solvecrimeproblems,withmultipleresourcescoordinated

toaddressthekeyriskfactorsatpriorityplaces.

Seealso:riskterrainmodeling.com/risk-reduction.html

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PrioritizeRiskyPlacesonaMap

SelectTargetAreaswithRiskTerrainMaps

RiskTerrainModeling(RTM)producesamapthat'paintsa

picture'ofplaceswherecriminalbehaviorisstatistically

mostlikelytooccur.RelativeRiskScores(RRSs)shouldbe

usedtoprioritizeplacesonariskterrainmap(e.g.,see

figurebelow).Often,theplaceswithRRSsgreaterthantwo

standarddeviationsfromthemeanRRSaregivenpriority.

19

RiskfactorsidentifiedbyRTM(i.e.,inthetabularoutput)

addtransparencytoriskterrainmaps,andofferinsights

aboutwhattofocusonathigh-riskplaces.Thisletsyou

prioritizecrimepreventionandriskreductioneffortsatthe

targetareas.

Seealso:riskterrainmodeling.com/maps--tables.html

20

CHAPTER5Evidence-BasedSupportforOpSS

Risk-BasedPolicingandRTM

HermanGoldsteinpublishedaseminalarticlein

1979titled“ImprovingPolicing:AProblemOriented

Approach.”Hearguedthattraditionalpolicingsuffered

froma“meansoverendssyndrome”.Thisresults,he

argued,inareactiveincident-basedapproachwhereby

policerespondtocrimeeventsatthesameplacesovertime

insteadofsolvingrecurringproblemsthatencouragethese

crimestoemergeinthefirstplace.Goldstein’sthesiswasa

boldstatementaboutthestateofthepolicingprofession,

anditwasacriticalonethatstillresonatestoday.

Problem-OrientedPolicing(POP)wasconceivedto

improvetheoutcomesofpolicingactivitiesbyequipping

officerswithtoolsandinformationtosolvethespecific

problemstheydealtwithintheline-of-duty(Goldstein,

2018).Thisrequiresdata,analytics,skilledpeople,anda

structuredapproachtousinganalyticaloutputs.Thismust

supporteffortstomakeinformeddecisions,deploy

resourcestothemostproblematicareas,andthen

systematicallyrepeatthesestepsovertime.Italsorequires

21

resourcesandtacticsbeyondpolicingandlawenforcement.

Sustainableandeffectivecrimeprevention

strategiesthatalsoenhancepublicsafetyrequire:1)

identifyingspecificproblemsthepublicexpectspoliceto

handle,2)deeplyunderstandingeachproblem,and3)

thinkingcreativelyaboutthebestpossible“tailor-made”

responses(Goldstein,2018,p1).

OperationSafeSurroundings(OpSS)putsahigh

valueoncrimepreventioneffortsthatdonotdependsolely

onthecriminaljusticesystembut,rather,engage

communitystakeholdersandotherpublicandprivate

resourcestosharetheburdenofpublicsafety.Itextends

theprinciplesofPOP,buildingonthesuccessesofrisk-

basedpolicing(Kennedy,Caplan&Piza,2018).Further,it

offersadisciplinedapproachtocrimepreventionthat

encouragesamulti-stakeholderfocusonplacestoprevent

crimesandmitigatecrimerisks.Thisapproachhasproven

tobeeffective,anditiscompatiblewithpublicdemands

andexpectationsforwhatacivillyjustcrimeprevention

strategyshouldbe.

AccordingtoKennedy,CaplanandPiza(2018),the

fivecentraltenetsofrisk-basedpolicingare:

1) Focusonplaces,notonlypeople,toprevent

22

crime;

2) Developspatialrisknarratives;

3) Solicitandvalueinputfromallranksofpolice

personnelandothercommunitystakeholders

aboutsituationalcrimecontexts,data

management,expectedoutcomes,and

performancemeasures;

4) Makedata-drivendecisionsfollowinga

transparentprocessofproblemdefinition,

informationgatheringandanalysis;and

5) Balancetherealneedsandexpectationsforlaw

enforcementactivitieswithcomprehensive

strategiesforcrimeriskreductionandpublic

safety.

Risk-basedpolicingreliesontheanalytical

frameworkprovidedbyRiskTerrainModeling(RTM).RTM

istheproductofover40yearsofsystematicinvestigation,

fieldworkandprofessionalexperience.Itisbasedon

scientificpeer-reviewedresearchoriginatingatRutgers

Universityandthenreplicatedandpublishedintheextant

23

literaturefromaroundtheworld1.RTMhasbeenusedin

over45countriesacross6continentsand35statesinthe

UnitedStates.Ithasaproventrackrecordwithsuccessful

outcomesthatreflectcommunitypriorities.

Insummary,RTMforecastsarebetterthan

predictionsbasedonhotspotmapping.RTMoutperforms

methodsusedby‘predictivepolicing’apps.Directingpolice

tohigh-riskplacesidentifiedbyRTMresultsinsignificantly

lowercrime.Riskterrainmapsareeasytounderstandand

tosharewithmultiplestakeholderswhoneedto

knowwheretogoandwhytobethere.Riskfactors

presentedintabularoutputsaddtransparencytothemaps.

RTMisplace-based,notpersonfocused,soitisless

susceptibletobiasanditpromotespositiveengagements

withcommunities.

Evaluationsinmultiplecities,fundedbytheU.S.

DepartmentofJustice,foundthatpolicingwithRTMand

targetinginterventionsathigh-riskplaces,resultedinas

muchas35%fewerguncrimes,33%fewermotorvehicle

thefts,and42%fewerrobberies,comparedtocontrol

areas.And,thereweremanyotherpositiveoutcomes

1A full bibliography of the research evidence is located at www.rtmworks.com

24

documentedinallthejurisdictionsstudied.Focusingon

riskyplacesworkstoreduceviolentandpropertycrimes.

RTMhasalsobeenappliedtoproblem-solvingefforts

regardingdrugs,trafficcrashes,terrorism,homeland

securityandpublichealth.

Place-BasedPrevention

Place-basedcrimepreventionrestsonthenotion

thatcrimesemergeandspatiallyconcentratewherethere

issomethingabouttheplacethatattractsillegalbehaviors

andleadstocrimeoutcomes(Weisburd,2008;Caplan&

Kennedy,2016).Thispresumptioniswelldocumentedin

researchliteratureutilizingvariousmethodologies

includinghotspotmapping(Haberman,2017;Weisburd&

Braga,2006;Sherman,1995;Sherman,Gartin,andBuerger,

1989;Schnell,Grossman,&Braga,2018),nearrepeat

analysis(Ratcliffe&McCullagh,1998;Ratcliffe&Rengert,

2008;Johnson,2008)andRiskTerrainModeling(Caplan&

Kennedy,2016;Garnier,Caplan,andKennedy,2018;

Connealy&Piza,2019).ItisalsogroundedintheTheoryof

RiskyPlaces(Kennedy,Caplan,Piza,&Buccine-Schraeder,

2016),theLawofCrimeConcentration(Weisburd,2015),

25

CrimePatternTheory(Brantingham&Brantingham,1981),

andothertheoreticalframeworkswithinthedomainof

criminologyandcriminaljustice(e.g.,Quetelet,1984;Park,

McKenzie&Burgess,1925;Shaw&McKay,1969;

Brantingham&Brantingham,1995).

Byaround1970,ideasforcrimepreventionthrough

environmentaldesign(CPTED)emergedfromwithinboth

thefieldsofcriminologyandarchitecturewhenresearchers

proposedthatthephysicalenvironmentofteninfluences

crime.PaulandPatriciaBrantinghambuiltfromthecross-

disciplinaryideasofCPTEDtoincludemoreelementsofthe

socialenvironmentandchangedthefocustoexamine

placesandpatternsoftheeventsthatoccurinthoseplaces.

Theyproposedthatplacesexhibitphysicalfeaturessuchas

retailstoresorentertainmentvenuesthathelpprovide

criminalopportunitiesbybringingtogetheroffendersand

targetsintimeandspace.They(1995)explainedthat

spatialcrimepatterns,andtheirstabilityovertime,area

functionofthe‘environmentalbackcloth’oftheareaunder

study,whichisdottedwith“crimeattractors”and“crime

generators”.

26

Kennedy,CaplanandPiza(2018)presentdata-

informedjustificationstofocusonrisksassociatedwith

certaintypesofenvironmentalfeaturesatcrime-prone

areas.Certainfeaturesofthelandscapeexertspatial

influencesonhumanbehaviorsthatcanaffectaplace’s

vulnerabilitytocrime–whichiswhycrimesemerge,

clusterandpersistovertime.Barnum,Caplan,Kennedyand

Piza(2017),forexample,demonstratedhow,consistent

withcrimepatterntheory(Brantingham&Brantingham,

1981)andthetheoryofriskyplaces(Kennedy,Caplan,Piza

&Buccine-Schraeder,2016),theenvironmentalbackcloth

affectshowplacefeaturesrelatetoandinfluencecrime

patterns.Whileitistheoreticallyandempiricallyevident

thatcrimesclusterspatially,itisalsoclearthatcrime

preventioneffortsneedtobetailoredtospecific

environmentalbehaviorsettingsinordertosufficiently

coolcrimehotspotsandpreventtheirreemergence.

OperationSafeSurroundings(OpSS)isdesignedto

offercluesonhowtochangesituationstomakethemless

conducivetocrimeandtofocuslessonlawenforcement

actionsagainstpeople.Goldstein(2018)explainsthatlaw

enforcementiscommonlyusedasasynonymforpolicing,

butenforcingthelawisnotthemostsustainableresponse

27

totheproblemsthatpolicedealwithregularly.OpSS

remindsusthatsustainablecrimepreventionstrategies

requiremorethanonlylawenforcementtactics.

Addressingthecollectiveinfluencesofenvironmental

featuresthatattractcrimeandgenerateillegalbehavior-

settingsisneededforacrimepreventionstrategythatis

place-basedandnotmerelyperson-focused.

UtilizingRTMtoanalyzefeaturesofthe

environmentalbackcloththataggravatecrimerisksoffers

cityofficialsoptionsforcrimepreventionthathelpsthem

targetandmitigateriskyfeaturesatpriorityplaceswithall

thevariousresourcesattheirdisposal.Itoffersaneffective

waytocoordinateresources(Caplan&Kennedy,2016;

Kennedy,Caplan&Piza,2018).

Policedealingswithpeopleathighcrimeareasmay

havetheeffectofdeterringcriminalsorevenreducing

crimecountsintheshort-term.But,despitethis,the

underlyingplace-basedfactorsthatattractandgenerate

problemsintheseareasdonotgoaway.So,whiletheOpSS

strategyaccommodatestheideasofsituationalcrime

prevention(Guerette&Bowers,2009;Clarke,1997)in

targetingcertainlocationsforintervention,effortscan

extendbeyondafocusonopportunitiesforcrimeorthe

28

“crimetriangle”(Cohen&Felson,1979;Cohen,Kluegel,&

Land,1981).Instead,effortscanbemadetotargetall

aspectsofthecontextsthatraisetheriskofcrime.OpSS

enablesaconcertedeffortbypoliceplusotherstakeholders

tomitigateenvironmentalattractorsandgeneratorsthat

makeparticularareassuitablelocationsforcrimetime-

and-again.OpSSdisruptsthecrimerisknarrativesto

reducecrimeandkeepitlow.

29

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Brantingham,P.,&Brantingham,P.L.(1995).CriminalityofPlace:CrimeGeneratorsandCrimeAttractors.EuropeanJournalonCriminalPolicyandResearch3,1-26.

Caplan,J.M.&Kennedy,L.W.(2016).RiskTerrainModeling:CrimePredictionandRiskReduction.Berkeley,CA:UniversityofCaliforniaPress.

Clarke,R.(1997).Introduction.InR.Clarke(Ed.),Situationalcrimeprevention,successfulcasestudies(2nded.).Monsey,NY:CriminalJusticePress.

Cohen,L.E.,&Felson,M.(1979).Socialchangeandcrimeratetrends:Aroutineactivityapproach.AmericanSociologicalReview,44,588-608.

Cohen,L.,Kluegel,J.,&Land,K.(1981).Socialinequalityandpredatorycriminalvictimization:Anexpositionandtestofaformaltheory.AmericanSociologicalReview,46(5),505-524.

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Garnier,S.,Caplan,J.M.,&Kennedy,L.W.(2018).PredictingDynamicalCrimeDistributionfromEnvironmentalandSocialInfluences.FrontiersinAppliedMathematicsandStatistics,30.

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