New BMI STRATEGY CONSULTING UNIT cc · 2019. 3. 5. · THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD MORTGAGE ADVANCES (DEC 2014), GFCF RES, NON-RES AND CONSTRUCTION (DEC 2014), BPP AND BC (MARCH 2015),

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

1

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD MORTGAGE ADVANCES (DEC 2014), GFCF RES, NON-RES AND CONSTRUCTION (DEC 2014), BPP AND BC (MARCH

2015), CEMENT (DEC 2014) AND LUMBER SALES (APRIL 2015).

Year To Date 2015 (July 2015)

Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis

BMI

Studium Ad Prosperandum

Voluntas in Conveniendum

BUILDING RESEARCH

STRATEGY CONSULTING

UNIT cc

Reg. No. 2002/105109/23

•BMI



BUILDING RESEARCH

STRATEGY CONSULTING

UNIT cc

•BMI

•BMI

•BMI

•BMI



BUILDING RESEARCH

STRATEGY CONSULTING

UNIT cc

Reg. No. 2002/105109/23

•BMI



BUILDING RESEARCH

STRATEGY CONSULTING

UNIT cc

•BMI

•BMI

•BMI

•BMI

•BMI

•BMI

•

Our Vision

Building and construction is

an engine for growth and

wealth creation and property

is a preferred investment.

Our Mission

Developing competitive

Industry foresight and

strategic leadership as a

way of business life.

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM

A place of assembly for strategic conversations

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

2

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM KEY ECONOMIC PLANNING PARAMETERS

Key Statistics

The People

Population 51,8 million (Oct 2011)

Unemployment 26,4% q/q (Q1-2015)

The Economy

GDP 1,3% q/q (Q1-2015)

CPI 4,6 % y/y (201505)

The Living Conditions

Access to piped water 73,4% (Inside yard)

Energy source for lighting 84,7% (Electricity)

The Natural Environment

Years to resource depletion Gold: 39 years (2012)

Maximum storage of largest dams Gariep 5340 millionm3

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

3

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM KEY ECONOMIC PLANNING PARAMETERS

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

4

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM THE ROLE OF BUILDING, CONSTRUCTION AND PROPERTY IN THE ECONOMY: 2014

(R MILLION) (R MILLION)Listed Property (Market Cap) Formal Empl in Bldng & Constr

Mortgage Advances Land included

Urban Housing Backlog

Mortgages Outstanding

Land included

Inv in Affordable Housing Investment in Building

1974.87% 23.15%

Government Budget Gross Fixed Capital Formation

0.03% 20.26%

30.01%

Transfer Duty Investment in Construction

R 769,230R 1,063

(R MILLION)

R 5,890,385R 449,662,670

THE ROLE OF BUILDING, CONSTRUCTION AND PROPERTY IN THE ECONOMY: 2014

Residential Property (Units*Millilon)

R 3,796,460

Gross Domestic Product

R 178,094

2,808,921

R 1,102,156

215

Average Annual Housing Need (units)

427,162

207,774

R 2,268,502

14.71

Non Res Property (m2*million)R 253,598

(Copyright) BMI-BRSCU

Investment in Infrastructure (3 years)

R 4,278 R 1,383,018 R 230,811

R 20,993

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

5

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: 2000 - 2020

2,46

7

2,53

4

2,62

7

2,70

5 2,82

8 2,97

7 3,14

4 3,3

12 3,41

8

3,36

5 3,4

68 3,57

9

3,65

9

3,73

9

3,7

96

3,87

2

3,9

65 4,

084 4

,22

3 4,3

81 4

,55

6y = 2474.8e0.0291x

R² = 0.9767

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,0002000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

R M

illi

on

(C

on

sta

nt

2014 V

alu

es)

Gross Domestic Product: 2000-2020: Lower Middle Road Scenario (Constant 2014 Value)(Source: SARB; MFA; BMI-BRSCU Workings; LT Forecast Chart 25)

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

6

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: 2000 - 2020

2,46

7

2,53

4

2,62

7

2,7

05 2,

828 2,

977 3,

144 3,

312 3,4

18

3,3

65 3,4

68 3,57

9

3,6

59

3,73

9

3,79

6

3,87

2

3,96

5 4,08

4 4,22

3 4,3

81 4

,55

6

4.20

2.74

3.67

2.95

4.55

5.28

5.605.36

3.19

-1.54

3.043.21

2.22 2.21

1.41

1.98

2.41

3.00

3.40

3.75

4.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Y/Y

Perc

en

tag

e C

han

ge

R M

illi

on

(C

on

sta

nt

2014 V

alu

es)

Gross Domestic Product: 2000-2020: Lower Middle Road Scenario (Constant 2014 Value)(Source: SARB; MFA; BMI-BRSCU Workings; LT Forecast Chart 3033)

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

7

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION: 2000 - 2020

345.

27

355.

10

367.

51 405.

13 45

7.3

0 507.

52

569.

16

647.

47

730.

49

68

1.7

2

655.

05 692.

55

717.

51

772.

21

769.

23

786.

40

81

2.8

5

843.

86 87

9.4

8

920.

11 966.

11

y = 365e0.0498x

R² = 0.9042

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

R M

illi

on

(C

on

sta

nt

2014 V

alu

es)

GFCF: 2000-2020: Lower Middle Road Scenario (Constant 2014 Value)(Source: SARB; MFA; BMI-BRSCU Workings; LT Forecast Chart 27)

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

8

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION: 2000 - 2020

345.

27

35

5.1

0

36

7.5

1 405.

13

457.

30

50

7.5

2

56

9.1

6

64

7.4

7

73

0.4

9

681.

72

65

5.0

5 69

2.5

5

71

7.5

1 772.

21

769.

23

786.

40

812.

85 84

3.8

6

87

9.4

8 92

0.1

1 96

6.1

1

3.90

2.853.49

10.24

12.88

10.98

12.14

13.76

12.82

-6.68

-3.91

5.72

3.60

7.62

-0.63

2.23

3.363.82

4.224.62

5.00

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Y/Y

Perc

en

tag

e C

han

ge

R M

illi

on

(C

on

sta

nt

2014 V

alu

es)

GFCF: 2000-2020: Lower Middle Road Scenario (Constant 2014 Value)(Source: SARB; MFA; BMI-BRSCU Workings; LT Forecast Chart 3034)

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

9

THE STRATEGIC FORUM INVESTMENT IN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION AS % OF GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION

30%

31%

32%

33%

34%

35%

36%

37%

38%

39%

40%

41%

42%

43%

44%

45%

46%

47%

48%

49%

50%

51%

52%

53%

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

PE

RC

EN

TA

GE

INVESTMENT IN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION AS % OF GFCF: 1993-2014 (CURRENT VALUES)LOWER MIDDLE ROAD SCENARIO: 2015-2020 (CONSTANT 2014 VALUE)

(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings; GFCF by Asset Type Chart 89)

34%

51%

43%

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

10

THE STRATEGIC FORUM GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION AS PERCENTAGE OF GDP

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

PER

CEN

TAG

E

GFCF AS PERCENTAGE OF GDP: 1993-2014LOWER MIDDLE ROAD SOYUZ SCENARIO: 2015-2020(Source: SARB, MFA, BMI-BRSCU Workings: Chart 6)

INFRASTRUCTURE EROSION IF RATIO < 20%

2014 = 20,3%

25% - 30% GFCF % OF GDP REQUIRED FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

The experience of other developing countries shows that capitalinvestment equivalent to about 25 per cent of GDP is generally neededfor a substantial rise in per capita income. (SARB, Budget Review 2012)

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

11

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM GFCF BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION BY TYPE OF ASSET: 1993 - 2014

GFCF Building and Construction comprised 45,3 % of Total GFCF in 2014 . . .

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

GFCF Computer Related Equipment 3.65% 4.26% 4.12% 4.05% 4.33% 5.18% 5.53% 5.66% 6.33% 6.52% 6.41% 5.82% 5.53% 4.97% 4.72% 4.06% 3.88% 3.44% 3.27% 4.48% 6.08% 6.09%

GFCF Transfer Costs 3.44% 3.76% 3.34% 3.29% 2.86% 2.45% 2.48% 2.69% 2.80% 2.90% 3.29% 3.97% 4.28% 3.63% 3.06% 1.73% 1.41% 1.76% 1.32% 1.18% 1.28% 1.42%

GFCF Machinery and Equipment 40.17%40.54%41.53%42.73%42.61%42.61%44.49%41.88%42.20%44.84%40.32%38.77%36.75%38.04%37.78%37.64%31.43%32.70%34.70%35.53%36.06%36.44%

GFCF Transport Equipment 16.76%16.25%16.86%14.53%14.57%15.32%12.59%13.44%13.85%11.76%14.17%14.18%14.64%13.92%12.60%10.32% 9.51% 10.56%10.52%11.30%10.60%10.87%

GFCF Construction 13.80%13.03%10.92%12.36%12.87%13.17%14.11%13.67%11.62%12.48%14.69%14.72%14.69%14.58%18.13%24.06%30.30%29.39%29.81%28.29%28.86%27.68%

GFCF Non Residential 11.43%12.00%12.61%11.96%11.38%10.41%10.78%11.20%11.72%10.47%10.17%10.04% 9.96% 10.00%10.11%10.81%11.84%12.09%10.35% 9.62% 8.90% 8.94%

GFCF Residential 10.75%10.16%10.62%11.10%11.40%10.85%10.03%11.47%11.49%11.04%10.96%12.50%14.15%14.87%13.61%11.37%11.63%10.07%10.02% 9.61% 8.22% 8.63%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

PE

RC

EN

TA

GE

(C

UR

RE

NT

VA

LU

ES

)

GFCF BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION BY TYPE OF ASSET: 1993-2014 R*MILLIONS (CURRENT VALUES)(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings, Chart 87)

GFCF Construction

GFCF Non Residential

GFCF Residential

GFCF Transport Equipment

GFCF Machinery and Equipment

GFCF Computer Related Equipment

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

12

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM GFCF BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION AS % OF TOTAL GFCF: 1993 - 2020

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

0

PE

RC

EN

TA

GE

(C

UR

RE

NT

AN

D C

ON

ST

AN

T 2

01

4 V

AL

UE

S)

GFCF BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION BY TYPE OF ASSET: 1993-2014 R*MILLIONS (CURRENT VALUES)LOWER MIDDLE ROAD SCENARIO: 2015-2020 (CONSTANT 2014 VALUE)

(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings, Chart 86)

GFCF Residential GFCF Non Residential GFCF Construction

GFCF Transport Equipment GFCF Machinery and Equipment GFCF Transfer Costs


GFCF Residential

GFCF Construction


© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

13

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM GFCF TE, ME, TC AND CRE AS % OF TOTAL GFCF: 1993 - 2020

0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%16%18%20%22%24%26%28%30%32%34%36%38%40%42%44%46%48%50%52%54%56%58%60%62%64%66%68%70%

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

PE

RC

EN

TA

GE

INVESTMENT TE, ME, TC AND CRE AS % OF GFCF: 1993-2014 (CURRENT VALUES)LOWER MIDDLE ROAD SCENARIO: 2015-2020 (CONSTANT 2014 VALUE)


GFCF Transport Equipment

GFCF Machinery and Equipment


GFCF Transfer Costs 44%

52%

66%

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

14

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM PROGNOSIS: GFCF YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST

GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION (VALUE) FC 2015

-1.13% 1.01% -7.71% 14.02% 6.90%

6.91% 4.30% -3.24% 7.04% 7.04%

2.89% 2.01% -5.37% 6.97% 6.98%

17.87% 18.81% 0.70% -0.35% -0.35%

Gross Fixed Capital Formation Weighted Average 2.93% 9.89% -2.60% 4.55% 3.63%

PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: BUILDING PLANS PASSED

GFCF Total Building

GFCF Residential


Mar-15 2015 YTD Act vs

2014 YTD Act

GFCF Construction

2013 vs 2012 2014 vs 2013

2015 YTD FC vs

2014 YTD Act

THE *YTD FORECAST INDICATES A GFCF MARKET HOLDING ITS OWN (*MARCH)

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

15

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM CURRENT REALITY OF INVESTMENT IN BUILDING: 2014

Total Building

Residential (Incl Rec A&A)

Contractor (50,8%)

44.86% R 36,189

Non Res (Incl Rec A&A) Subcontractor (49,2%)

R 35,04935.60%

Add's & Alt's (Unrecorded) Direct to User (40%)

21.96%

R 182,401 102.42%

Large Chain BM (25%) Large Ind BM (10%)

Specialist Shop (5%) Hyper/Super Market (5%)


CURRENT REALITY OF INVESTMENT IN BUILDING: YTD 2014 (DEC)

R 16,028

R 106,857

Labour (40%)

R 39,109

R 26,714

Material (60%)

R 63,408

R 71,238

Indirect via Distribution (60%)

R 64,114

R 5,343

R 10,686

Local Hardware Store (15%)

R 79,885

R 5,343

(R MILLION)

R 71,238

Total Building

R 178,094 R 178,094

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

16

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM GFCF RESIDENTIAL: 1993 – 2020

43.2

6

44

.74

43

.91

46

.90

61

.96

80.1

1

86.6

8

90.1

5

82

.79

78

.24

63

.91

64

.67

63.3

8

58

.91

55

.50

59

.88

62

.88

64.7

6

68

.32

72

.76

78

.59

y = 50e0.0204x

R² = 0.1212

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

R M

illi

on

(C

on

sta

nt

2014

Valu

es)

GFCF: Residential: 2000-2020: Lower Middle Road Scenario (Constant 2014 Values)

(Source: SARB; MFA; BMI-BRSCU Workings; Longterm Forecast Chart 3037)

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

17

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM GFCF RESIDENTIAL: 1993 – 2020

43.2

6

44.7

4

43.9

1 46.9

0

61.9

6

80.1

1

86.6

8 90.1

5

82.7

9

78.2

4

63.9

1

64.6

7

63.3

8

58.9

1

55.5

0 59.8

8 62.8

8

64.7

6 68.3

2 72.7

6

78.5

919.0

3.4

-1.8

6.8

32.1

29.3

8.2

4.0

-8.2

-5.5

-18.3

1.2

-2.0

-7.1

-5.8

7.9

5.03.0

5.5

6.5

8.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Y/Y

Perc

en

tag

e C

han

ge

R M

illi

on

(C

on

sta

nt

2014

Valu

es)

GFCF: Residential: 2000-2020: Lower Middle Road Scenario (Constant 2014 Values)

(Source: SARB; MFA; BMI-BRSCU Workings; Longterm Forecast Chart 3037(2))

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

18

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM CUM Q/Q GFCF RESIDENTIAL: FC 2014 VS 2013

2015/'01 2015/'02 2015/'03 2015/'04

CUM Q/Q GFCF RESIDENTIAL 2008 13,691 28,786 44,899 60,678

CUM Q/Q GFCF RESIDENTIAL 2014 13,036 26,635 40,966 55,497

CUM GFCF RESIDENTIAL FC 2015 14,066 28,740 44,202 59,881

CUM Q/Q % CHANGE FC 2015 VS 2014 -7.71% 9.58% 12.75% 14.02%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Cu

m Q

/Q P

erc

en

tag

e C

han

ge

R M

illi

on

s

CUM Q/Q GFCF RESIDENTIAL FC 2015 VS 2014(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings,Chart 106)

YTD FORECASTYTD ACTUAL

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

19

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM GFCF NON RESIDENTIAL 1993 - 2020

42.1

2

45.0

6

41

.60

44.5

2

49.0

7

52.3

0

58.2

1 66.7

2 78.4

0

80

.62

77.5

5

67.1

8

63.1

8

63

.42

62.5

0

67.8

1

72.4

9

75.3

9

78.7

8

82.7

2

87

.68

y = 44.24e0.0321x

R² = 0.71

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

R M

illi

on

(C

on

sta

nt

2014

Valu

es)

GFCF: Non Residential: 2000-2020: Lower Middle Road Scenario(Constant 2014 Values)


© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

20

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM GFCF NON RESIDENTIAL 1993 - 2020

42

.12 45

.06

41.6

0 44.5

2

49.0

7 52.3

0

58.2

1

66.7

2

78.4

0

80.6

2

77

.55

67

.18

63.1

8

63.4

2

62

.50

67

.81

72

.49 75

.39 78

.78 8

2.7

2

87

.68

3.0

7.0

-7.7

7.0

10.2

6.6

11.3

14.6

17.5

2.8

-3.8

-13.4

-6.0

0.4

7.0

8.5

6.9

4.04.5

5.06.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Y/Y

Perc

en

tag

e C

han

ge

R M

illi

on

(C

on

sta

nt

2014

Valu

es)

GFCF: Non Residential: 2000-2020: Lower Middle Road Scenario(Constant 2014 Values)


© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

21

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM CUM Q/Q GFCF NON RESIDENTIAL: FC 2015 VS 2014

2014/'01 2014/'02 2014/'03 2014/'04

CUM GFCF NON RES BUILDING 2008 15,811 30,699 45,096 60,958

CUM GFCF NON RES BUILDING 2014 15230 30491 45959 62,495

CUM GFCF NON RES BUILDING 2015 16523 33082 49864 67,807

CUM Q/Q % CHANGE 2015 VS 2014 -3.24% 1.99% 4.52% 7.04%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Cu

m Q

/Q P

erc

en

tag

e C

han

ge

R M

illi

on

s

CUM Q/Q GFCF NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDING FC 2015 VS 2014(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings, Chart 120)

YTD ACTUAL YTD FORECAST

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

22

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM CUM Q/Q GFCF TOTAL BUILDING: 1993 - 2020

85.3

8

89.8

0

85

.52

91.4

2 111.

03 132.

41 144.

89

156.

87

16

1.1

8

158.

86

141.

46

13

1.8

5

126.

56

12

2.3

2

117.

99

127.

69

13

5.3

6

140.

15

147.

10

15

5.4

8

16

6.2

7

y = 98.911e0.023x

R² = 0.4525

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

R M

illi

on

(C

on

sta

nt

2014

Valu

es)

GFCF: Total Building: 2000-2020: Lower Middle Road Scenario(Constant 2014 Values)


© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

23

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM CUM Q/Q GFCF TOTAL BUILDING: 1993 - 2020

85.3

8

89.8

0

85.5

2 91.4

2

111.0

3

132.4

1

144.8

9

156.8

7

161.1

8

158.8

6

141.4

6

131.8

5

126.5

6

122.3

2

117.9

9 127.6

9 135.3

6

140.1

5 147.1

0 155.4

8

166.2

7

3.00%

5.17%

-4.77%

6.90%

21.45%

19.25%

9.42%8.27%

2.75%

-1.45%

-10.95%

-6.79%

-4.02%-3.34%-3.54%

8.22%

6.01%

3.54%

4.96%5.70%

6.94%

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

R M

illi

on

(C

on

sta

nt

2014

Valu

es)

GFCF: Total Building: 2000-2020: Lower Middle Road Scenario(Constant 2014 Values)


© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

24

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM CUM Q/Q GFCF TOTAL BUILDING: FC 2015 VS 2014

2014/'01 2014/'02 2014/'03 2014/'04

CUM Q/Q GFCF TOTAL BUILDING 2008 25,907 53,850 83,235 113,891

CUM Q/Q GFCF TOTAL BUILDING 2014 30,773 59,576 88,581 117,992

CUM GFCF TOTAL BUILDING FC 2015 29,122 60,358 92,600 126,222

CUM Q/Q % CHANGE FC 2015 VS 2014 -5.37% 1.31% 4.54% 6.97%

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Cu

m Q

/Q P

erc

en

tag

e C

han

ge

R M

illi

on

s

CUM Q/Q GFCF TOTAL BUILDING FC 2015 VS 2014(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings, Chart 113)


© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

25

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM CURRENT REALITY OF INVESTMENT IN CONSTRUCTION: 2014

Total Construction

Contractor (50,8%)

R 46,901

Subcontractor (49,2%)

R 45,424

Direct to User (40%)

Large Chain BM (25%) Large Ind BM (10%)

Specialist Shop (5%) Hyper/Super Market (5%)


R 34,622

CURRENT REALITY OF INVESTMENT IN CONSTRUCTION: YTD 2014 (DEC)

(R MILLION)

R 230,811

R 92,324

R 230,811

Labour (40%)

Material (60%)

R 138,487 R 7,809

R 13,849

Local Hardware Store (15%)

Indirect via Distribution (60%)

R 83,092

R 6,924 R 20,773 R 6,924

Total Construction

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

26

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM GFCF CONSTRUCTION: 1993 - 2020

46.5

3

41.3

4

45

.40

57

.58

63.8

6

68.2

5

80.2

1

11

3.3

8

16

4.3

6 195.

23

18

0.5

5

185.

98

181.

16 20

2.5

1 230.

81

226.

19

237.

50 25

5.3

2

27

5.7

4 300.

28 31

6.2

0

y = 42.29e0.1063x

R² = 0.912

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

R M

illi

on

(C

on

sta

nt

2014

Valu

es)

GFCF: Construction: 2000-2014: Constant 2014 Prices(Source: SARB; MFA; BMI-BRSCU Workings; Longterm Forecast Chart 3035)

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

27

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM GFCF CONSTRUCTION: 1993 - 2020

46.5

3

41.3

4

45

.40 57

.58

63

.86

68

.25 80

.21

113.

38

164.

36

195.

23

180.

55

185.

98

18

1.1

6 202.

51

230.

81

22

6.1

9

23

7.5

0 25

5.3

2 275.

74

30

0.2

8

316.

20

-4.0

-11.1

9.8

26.8

10.9

6.9

17.5

41.4

45.0

18.8

-7.5

3.0

-2.6

11.814.0

-2.0

5.0

7.5 8.0 8.9

5.3

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Y/Y

Perc

en

tag

e C

han

ge

R M

illi

on

(C

on

sta

nt

2014

Valu

es)

GFCF: Construction: 2000-2014: Constant 2014 Prices(Source: SARB; MFA; BMI-BRSCU Workings; Longterm Forecast Chart 3035)

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

28

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM CUM Q/Q GFCF CONSTRUCTION: FC 2015 VS 2014

2014/'01 2014/'02 2014/'03 2014/'04

CUM GFCF CONSTRUCTION 2008 25,398 55,035 90,064 128,376

CUM GFCF CONSTRUCTION 2014 57,364 114,863 172,406 230,811

CUM GFCF CONSTRUCTION 2015 57766 112053 168828 230013

CUM Q/Q % CHANGE GFCF CONSTR 2015VS 2014

0.70% -2.45% -2.08% -0.35%

-3.00%

-2.50%

-2.00%

-1.50%

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Cu

m Q

/Q P

erc

en

tag

e C

han

ge

R M

illi

on

s

CUM Q/Q GFCF CONSTRUCTION: FC 2015 VS 2014 (Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings, Chart 126)


© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

29

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM TOTAL MORTGAGE ADVANCES: 1979 - 2014

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

Gold

boom

SA

SO

L II

SA

SO

L III

Auste

rity

pa

cka

ge

Ru

bic

on s

peech

De

bt sta

ndstill

Eco

nom

ic r

eco

ve

ry

Mandela

's r

ele

ase

De

mocra

tic E

lection

Tra

nsitio

n to D

em

ocra

cy

Cu

rrency c

olla

pse

World T

rade C

entr

e

BN

G H

ou

sin

g P

rogra

mm

e

Sub

Pri

me C

risis

(N

CA

)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Y/Y

Perc

en

ata

ge C

han

ge

Defining Events

R M

illi

on

s (C

urr

en

t V

alu

e)

Total Mortgage Loans and Readvances: 1979-2014 (Current Values) (Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings: Chart 611)

R233 Billion taken out of the system

in two years!

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

30

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM MORTGAGE ADVANCES ON NEW AND EXISTING BUILDINGS: 2000 - 2014

65409

86956

100116

127638

189410 2

77697 357850

384051

252978

173212 249458

228437

214895

230454

288928

10879

1339114891

15897

27565

32446

30941

28574

30076

16359

13123

1556518955

20892

36210

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

R m

illi

on

s (C

urr

en

t valu

e)

Mortgages advanced on Existing and New Buildings: 2000-2014(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings: Chart 600)

Mortgages Advanced to Existing Buildings Mortgages Advanced to New Buildings

Mortgage advances on Existing Buildings is 8-12X that advanced on New Buildings.

Private Residential BC = R34 071 Billion andMortgage Advances

on New Buildings = R36 210 Billion

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

31

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM CUM ACTUAL NEW MORTGAGE ADVANCES ON EXIST BLDNGS: FC 2015 VS 2014

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Y/Y Cum Actual 2007 25,978 62,107 100,948 132,633 173,165 202,794 234,730 266,502 294,231 326,922 358,811 384,052

Y/Y Cum Actual 2014 18,193 42,775 69,259 92,201 118,736 144,731 168,775 192,196 218,466 245,382 268,802 288,919

Y/Y Cum Actual 2015 20,688 46,648 75,969 98,232 123,155 147,067 171,046 196,181 221,019 248,521 274,813 295,883

YTD FC 2015 vs 2014 % Change 13.71% 9.05% 9.69% 6.54% 3.72% 1.61% 1.35% 2.07% 1.17% 1.28% 2.24% 2.41%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

R M

illi

on

s (C

urr

en

t V

alu

es)

Cum Actual New Mortgage Loans and Readvances applied on Existing Buildings: YTD FC 2015 vs 2014 and 2007 by month: January - Dec

(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings, Chart 565(2))


© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

32

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM CUM ACT NEW MORTGAGE LOANS FOR CONSTR OF NEW BLDNGS: FC 2015 VS 2014


Y/Y Cum Actual 2007 1,884 4,617 7,589 9,943 13,030 15,327 17,955 20,424 22,582 25,076 27,213 28,574

Y/Y Cum Actual 2014 2,047 6,974 10,617 12,831 15,564 18,298 21,798 24,609 27,721 31,142 33,855 36,211

Y/Y Cum Actual 2015 2,331 5,124 8,906 11,857 15,291 18,612 22,030 25,359 28,667 32,280 35,511 38,082

% Change Y/Y Cum Actual 2015 vs 2014 13.87% -26.53% -16.12% -7.59% -1.76% 1.72% 1.06% 3.05% 3.41% 3.65% 4.89% 5.17%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

% D

iffe

ren

ce Y

/Y C

um

Actu

al 2015 v

s 2

014

R M

illi

on

s (C

urr

en

t V

alu

es)

Y/Y Cum Actual Gross new Mortgage Loans and Readvances for Construction of new Buildings2015 vs 2014 and 2007 by month


CUM YTD FORECASTCUM YTD ACTUAL

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

33

NET MORGAGES IN THE PIPELINE (NMIP) MORTGAGE LOANS FOR CONSTRUCTION OF NEW BUILDINGS VS RES BC: 1993 - 2015

From 1993- End 2006 the Net Mortgages in the Pipeline (NMIP) = + 24,38%;

From 2007- Mid 2009 NMIP WORSENED to - 51,02%

and from mid 2009 to Dec 2014 it IMPROVED significantly to + 13,38%.

This means that all BC are funded by Mortgages and the use of

Unsecured Loans to make up the Shortfall has declined.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

R M

illi

on

s (C

urr

en

t V

alu

e)

NET MORTGAGES IN THE PIPELINE Gross new mortgage loans and re-advances for

construction of new buildings vs Residential BC: By Month: 1993- FC 2015(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings, Chart 553)

Gross new mortgage loans and re-advances for construction of buildings

Residential BC

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Gross new mortgage loans and re-advances for construction of buildings )

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Residential BC)

Trend Break

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

34

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: MORTGAGE ADVANCES, VACANT LAND: YTD FC 2015 VS 2014


Y/Y Cum Actual 2014 163 397 856 1065 1345 1657 1956 2273 2536 2970 3301 3516

Y/Y Cum FC 2015 196 706 1,317 1,739 2,208 2,662 3,130 3,599 4,039 4,527 4,989 5,381

% Difference Y/Y FC 2015 vs Y/Y Cum Actual:2014 28.35% 11.20% 61.51% 47.92% 41.58% 49.41% 50.23% 42.60% 44.42% 50.99% 55.93% 56.06%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

R M

illi

on

s (C

urr

en

t V

alu

e)

Net New Mortgage Loans and Readvances applied on Vacant LandCum 2015 vs Cum Actual 2014


CUM YTD FORECASTCUM YTD ACTUAL

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

35

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: MORTGAGE ADVANCES, TOTAL GROSS: YTD FC 2015 VS 2014


Y/Y Cum Actual 2007 30,111 71,925 116,917 153,368 199,882 233,827 270,620 307,387 339,290 376,890 413,167 441,410

Y/Y Cum Actual 2014 20,403 50,146 80,732 106,097 135,645 164,686 192,529 219,078 248,723 279,494 305,958 328,646

Y/Y CUM Actual 2015 23,214 52,477 86,191 111,815 140,649 168,328 196,163 225,132 253,689 285,305 315,306 339,399

Y/Y Cum % Change Actual 2015 vs 2014 13.78% 4.65% 6.76% 5.39% 3.69% 2.21% 1.89% 2.76% 2.00% 2.08% 3.06% 3.27%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

R M

illi

on

s

Y/Y Cum Actual Total gross new Mortgage Loans and Readvances:FC 2015 vs 2014 and 2007 by month: January - Dec


CUM YTD FORECAST

Y/Y

Cu

m %

Ch

an

ge A

ctu

al

2015 v

s 2

014

CUM YTD ACTUAL

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

36

THE YTD FORECAST INDICATES AN IMPROVING MORTGAGE MARKET

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: MORTGAGE ADVANCES BY SEGMENT: YTD FC 2015 VS 2014

Mar-15 2015

MORTGAGE ADVANCES (VALUE) FORECAST

Mortgage Advances on Existing Buildings 7.24% 25.37% 9.69% 2.41% -0.69%

Mortgage Advances on Construction of New Buildings 10.22% 73.33% -16.12% 5.17% 4.87%

Mortgage Advances on Vacant Land -47.57% 56.06% 53.86% 53.04% 56.10%

Total Gross New Mortgage Loans and Re-advances 6.49% 29.59% 6.76% 3.27% 0.47%

Total Mortgage Loans Outstanding 1.72% 4.44% 4.70% 1.60% 0.47%

Mortgage Advances Weighted Average 2.70% 10.42% 6.48% 2.05% 0.61%

PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: GFCF

2013 vs 2012 2014 vs 2013

2015 YTD Act vs

2014 YTD Act

2015 YTD FC vs

2014 YTD Act

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

37

CURRENT REALITY OF INVESTMENT IN BUILDING BY SECTOR AND SEGMENT: 2014 (R MILLION)

2,767

17,062

7,592

520

6,130

20,993

569

33

20,824

76,490

4,694

3,981

5,524

1,300

3,245

10,951

3,335

29,466

62,495

35,652

3,457

178,094

0

20

,00

0

40

,00

0

60

,00

0

80

,00

0

10

0,0

00

12

0,0

00

14

0,0

00

16

0,0

00

18

0,0

00

20

0,0

00

Dwelling-houses < 80 m2

Dwelling-houses > 80 m2

Townhouses & Flats

Other (Incl. hotels & casinos)

Additions & alterations

PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL

Affordable Housing

General Government

Public corporations

Private Business Enterprises

TOTAL RESIDENTIAL

PRIVATE NON-RESIDENTIAL

Offices

Shops

Industrial & warehouse

Other

Additions & Alterations

PUBLIC NON-RESIDENTIAL

General Government

Public Corporations


TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL

Unrecorded Res Add's and Alt's

Unrecorded Non Res Add's and Alt's

GRAND TOTAL BUILDING

INVESTMENT IN BUILDING BY SECTOR AND BY SEGMENT: 2014: R MILLION(TOTAL = R178 094 MILLION)

(Source: SARB, StatsSA, MFA, BMI-BRSCU Building Industry Dashboard, Inv in Bulding 2002-2020 (R), Chart 2756)

Private Residential BC = R34,071 Billion andMortgage Advances on New Buildings = R36,210 Billion.

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

38

2012

M2*1000 M2*1000 Change (%) M2*1000 Change (%) M2*1000 Change (%)

903 809 -10.46% 764 -5.47% 772 1.06%

2,805 2,859 1.91% 2,777 -2.88% 2,814 1.33%

1,105 1,218 10.27% 1,166 -4.25% 1,212 3.93%

46 89 94.24% 89 -0.15% 104 17.65%

1,467 1,722 17.41% 1,121 -34.93% 1,172 4.60%

8913 7326 -17.81% 5,798 -20.85% 5,393 -7.00%

316 236 -25.28% 157 -33.32% 960 510.97%

45 63 41.58% 9 -85.62% 17 87.66%

9930 7573 -23.74% 5,752 -24.05% 5,895 2.49%

25,529 21894 -14.24% 17,633 -19.46% 18,340 4.01%

463 796 71.98% 609 -23.42% 616 1.08%

499 566 13.36% 573 1.24% 593 3.50%

1,128 955 -15.32% 1,125 17.72% 1,128 0.28%

201 230 14.42% 213 -7.11% 218 2.38%

550 665 21.04% 497 -25.31% 538 8.34%

1,605 1,954 21.69% 1,763 -9.76% 2,808 59.27%

1,177 1,075 -8.65% 537 -50.07% 709 32.06%

5,035 4,142 -17.73% 4,743 14.52% 4,286 -9.63%

10657 10382 -2.58% 10060 -3.11% 10896 8.31%

13,527 10,666 -21.14% 6,518 -38.89% 6,818 4.60%

944 1,130 19.72% 632 -44.05% 685 8.34%

50,657 44,072 -13.00% 34,843 -20.94% 36,739 5.44%

PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL

Affordable Housing

PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL



Unrecorded Res Adds and Alts

General Government

Public corporations


TOTAL RESIDENTIAL


Townhouses & Flats



2013 2014 FC 2015

Unrecorded Non Res Adds and Alts

GRAND TOTAL


General Government

Public corporations



Offices

Shops


Other


THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: INVESTMENT IN BUILDING BY SECTOR AND SEGMENT: 2012 – FC 2015

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

39

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: INVESTMENT IN BUILDING BY SECTOR AND SEGMENT: 2014 (M2*1000)

0

764

2,777

1,166

89

1,121

5,798

157

9

5,752

17,633

609

573

1,125

213

497

1,763

537

4,743

10,060

6,518

632

34,843

0

5,0

00

10

,00

0

15

,00

0

20

,00

0

25

,00

0

30

,00

0

35

,00

0

40

,00

0

PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL



Townhouses & Flats



PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL

Affordable Housing

General Government

Public corporations


TOTAL RESIDENTIAL


Offices

Shops


Other



General Government

Public corporations





GRAND TOTAL

INVESTMENT IN BUILDING BY SECTOR AND BY SEGMENT: 2014: M2*1000(TOTAL = 34 843 M2*1000)

(Source: SARB, StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Building Industry Dashboard, Inv in Building 2001-2020 (M2), Chart 21(5))

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

40

40

2012

R*Million R*Million Change (%) R Million Change (%) R Million Change (%)

2,647 2,466 -6.87% 2,767 12.23% 2,796 1.06%

16,511 16,942 2.61% 17,062 0.71% 17,289 1.33%

6,624 7,670 15.79% 7,592 -1.01% 7,891 3.93%

347 525 51.23% 520 -0.88% 612 17.65%

7,779 8,762 12.64% 6,130 -30.04% 6,412 4.60%

25525 20979 -17.81% 20,993 0.07% 19,524 -7.00%

904 675 -25.28% 569 -15.70% 3,477 510.97%

127 180 41.58% 33 -81.82% 62 87.66%

28438 21687 -23.74% 20,824 -3.98% 21,342 2.49%

88,902 79,885 -10.14% 76,490 -4.25% 79,405 3.81%

4,022 7,232 79.80% 4,694 -35.09% 4,745 1.08%

3,558 4,008 12.67% 3,981 -0.68% 4,120 3.50%

6,012 5,331 -11.32% 5,524 3.62% 5,539 0.28%

1,352 1,416 4.74% 1,300 -8.20% 1,330 2.38%

4,231 5,065 19.72% 3,245 -35.94% 3,515 8.34%

9,035 10,994 21.69% 10,951 -0.39% 17,472 59.55%

6,624 6,051 -8.65% 3,335 -44.89% 4,412 32.29%

28,334 23,310 -17.73% 29,466 26.41% 26,673 -9.48%

63167 63408 0.38% 62,495 -1.44% 67,807 8.50%

64,621 50,957 -21.14% 35,652 -30.04% 37,291 4.60%

4,508 5,397 19.72% 3,457 -35.94% 3,746 8.34%

221,198 199647 -9.74% 178,094 -10.80% 188,248 5.70%


Townhouses & Flats


INVESTMENT IN BUILDING: 2012-FC 2015: R MILLION (CONSTANT PRICES)

PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL

2014

Public corporations




GRAND TOTAL

2013

PUBLIC NON-RESIDENTIAL \

General Government

Public corporations


Shops


Other



FC 2015


TOTAL RESIDENTIAL


Offices

PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL

Affordable Housing

General Government


THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: INVESTMENT IN BUILDING BY SECTOR AND SEGMENT: 2012-FC 2015 (R*MILLION)

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

41

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL BC BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: AVE 1993-2014

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

42

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL BC BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: AVE 1993-2014

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

Western Cape

Eastern Cape

Gauteng

Kwazulu Natal

Mpumalanga

Northern Cape

Free State

Limpopo

Northwest

Total

WesternCape

EasternCape

GautengKwazulu

NatalMpumalang

aNorthern

CapeFree StateLimpopoNorthwestTotal

Dwelling-house < 80 square metres 29.75%4.21%43.94%1.37%10.26%0.51%6.53%1.28%2.14%100.00%

Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 21.33%4.25%45.37%11.94%6.03%0.25%1.58%3.25%5.99%100.00%

Flats and townhouses 21.33%4.25%45.37%11.94%6.03%0.25%1.58%3.25%5.99%100.00%

Total Residential 22.07%4.51%38.13%7.77%6.82%0.80%2.02%1.95%4.28%88.35%

Other buildings 39.74%3.59%12.64%0.00%21.68%0.72%8.22%11.24%2.17%100.00%

Additions and alterations 34.96%8.44%26.58%12.89%9.45%2.27%2.00%0.69%2.74%100.00%

TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 22.07%4.51%38.13%7.77%6.82%0.80%2.02%1.95%4.28%88.35%

RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: AVERAGE 1993-2014: M2(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Prov BC Dashboard, Chart 728)

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

43

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: BPP AND BC BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: YTD 2014

RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: 2014: M2

Total RSA Western Cape Eastern Cape Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern Cape Free State Limpopo Northwest Total

Dwelling-house < 80 square metres 764,268 29.75% 4.21% 43.94% 1.37% 10.26% 0.51% 6.53% 1.28% 2.14% 100.00%

Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 2,776,600 20.72% 4.40% 49.67% 8.15% 6.58% 0.74% 1.35% 2.34% 6.04% 100.00%

Flats and townhouses 1,166,426 21.33% 4.25% 45.37% 11.94% 6.03% 0.25% 1.58% 3.25% 5.99% 100.00%

Other buildings 88,528 39.74% 3.59% 12.64% 0.00% 21.68% 0.72% 8.22% 11.24% 2.17% 100.00%

Additions and alterations 1,120,747 34.96% 8.44% 26.58% 12.89% 9.45% 2.27% 2.00% 0.69% 2.74% 100.00%

TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2014 5,916,569 24.99% 5.10% 43.15% 8.80% 7.72% 0.91% 2.29% 2.20% 4.84% 100.00%

% Change Cum YTD 2014 vs 2013: Residential -11.65% -36.31% -16.76% 5.47% -12.97% 23.26% -9.56% -31.26% 29.34% 7.57% -11.65%

NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: 2014: M2


Office and banking 609,266 21.61% 1.98% 60.39% 9.34% 1.33% 2.98% 0.15% 0.83% 1.40% 100.00%

Shopping 572,864 4.38% 7.24% 50.28% 3.69% 3.89% 0.51% 0.33% 2.06% 27.62% 100.00%

Industrial and warehouse 1,124,811 18.46% 8.66% 50.13% 14.52% 4.71% 0.91% 0.00% 0.80% 1.80% 100.00%

Other buildings 213,251 28.45% 4.06% 33.02% 25.06% 6.36% 0.11% 0.68% 0.04% 2.23% 100.00%

Additions and alterations 496,990 38.52% 10.39% 26.25% 12.15% 4.15% 2.47% 0.71% 0.19% 5.17% 100.00%

TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2014 3,017,182 20.43% 7.00% 47.09% 11.77% 3.90% 1.45% 0.26% 0.89% 7.20% 100.00%

% Change Cum YTD 2014 vs 2013 Non Residential -6.06% -44.16% -25.38% 27.77% -3.04% 28.52% 78.71% -90.77% -36.41% 108.64% -6.06%

GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES CUM YTD 2014 8,933,751 23.45% 5.74% 44.48% 9.80% 6.43% 1.09% 1.60% 1.76% 5.64% 100.00%

% Change Cum YTD 2014 vs 2013: Total Res & Non Res -9.84% -38.84% -20.54% 12.49% -9.20% 24.30% 16.28% -49.00% 9.86% 35.98% -9.84%

* Dec 2014

RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: 2014: M2


Dwelling-house < 80 square metres 764,268 227,365 32,187 335,835 10,464 78,450 3,908 49,908 9,799 16,352 764,268

Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 2,776,600 575,178 122,217 1,379,070 226,392 182,734 20,656 37,556 65,019 167,778 2,776,600

Flats and townhouses 1,166,426 248,812 49,539 529,253 139,322 70,374 2,944 18,431 37,893 69,858 1,166,426

Other buildings 88,528 35,179 3,174 11,192 0 19,195 640 7,274 9,954 1,920 88,528

Additions and alterations 1,120,747 391,759 94,578 297,924 144,453 105,892 25,416 22,359 7,691 30,675 1,120,747

TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD 2014 5,916,569 1,478,293 301,695 2,553,274 520,631 456,645 53,564 135,528 130,356 286,583 5,916,569

% Change Cum YTD 2014 vs 2013: Residential -11.65% -36.31% -16.76% 5.47% -12.97% 23.26% -9.56% -31.26% 29.34% 7.57% -11.65%

5,916,569 1,478,293 301,695 2,553,274 520,631 456,645 53,564 135,528 130,356 286,583 5,916,569

NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: 2014: M2


Office and banking 609,266 131,674 12,058 367,908 56,894 8,113 18,129 895 5,085 8,510 609,266

Shopping 572,864 25,102 41,473 288,024 21,136 22,310 2,911 1,884 11,817 158,207 572,864

Industrial and warehouse 1,124,811 207,652 97,390 563,886 163,378 52,984 10,275 0 9,052 20,194 1,124,811

Other buildings 213,251 60,664 8,654 70,414 53,443 13,555 242 1,442 78 4,759 213,251

Additions and alterations 496,990 191,458 51,625 130,479 60,397 20,621 12,254 3,514 944 25,698 496,990

TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD 2014 3,017,182 616,550 211,200 1,420,711 355,248 117,583 43,811 7,735 26,976 217,368 3,017,182

% Change Cum YTD 2014 vs 2013 Non Residential -6.06% -44.16% -25.38% 27.77% -3.04% 28.52% 78.71% -90.77% -36.41% 108.64% -6.06%

GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES CUM YTD 2014 8,933,751 2,094,843 512,895 3,973,985 875,879 574,228 97,375 143,263 157,332 503,951 8,933,751

% Change Cum YTD 2014 vs 2013: Total Res & Non Res -9.84% -38.84% -20.54% 12.49% -9.20% 24.30% 16.28% -49.00% 9.86% 35.98% -9.84%

* Dec 2014 3,017,182 616,550 211,200 1,420,711 355,248 117,583 43,811 7,735 26,976 217,368 3,017,182

8,933,751 2,094,843 512,895 3,973,985 875,879 574,228 97,375 143,263 157,332 503,951 8,933,751

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

44

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PLANS PASSED BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: 2014

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

WC

EC

GAU

KZN

MPUM

NC

FS

LIMP

NW

Total

WCECGAUKZNMPUMNCFSLIMPNWTotal

Dwelling-house < 80 square metres 26.31%5.36%45.98%7.53%7.25%0.11%4.91%1.95%0.60%100.00%

Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 20.42%4.88%43.06%9.51%8.32%1.38%3.95%3.41%5.07%100.00%

Flats and townhouses 19.64%1.33%40.50%20.52%2.43%0.89%5.50%2.51%6.68%100.00%

Other buildings 16.97%4.64%11.97%19.10%5.01%14.83%18.87%4.55%4.07%100.00%


TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2014 22.67%5.84%38.85%12.00%6.56%1.58%4.87%2.73%4.89%100.00%

% Change Cum YTD 2014 vs 2013: Residential 4.28%10.57%11.52%22.35%7.94%45.37%19.63%-8.57%-17.22%8.93%

RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP) BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: 2014: M2(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings; BPP SA Chart 966)

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

45

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PLANS PASSED BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: 2015 vs 2014

-100%

-90%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

Western Cape

Eastern Cape

Gauteng

Kwazulu Natal

Mpumalanga

Northern Cape

Free State

Limpopo

Northwest

Total

WesternCape

EasternCape

GautengKwazulu

NatalMpumala

ngaNorthern

CapeFreeState

LimpopoNorthwestTotal

TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2015 31.45%11.01%27.34%11.04%7.02%0.22%5.58%1.67%4.66%100.00%

% Change Cum YTD 2015 vs 2014: Residential 42.51%5.21%-8.45%-15.25%12.97%-85.44%8.74%-3.32%8.67%-2.83%

RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP) BY PROVINCE AND SECTOR: YTD 2015* VS 2014: M2 (*MAY)(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings; BPP SA, Sheet 967)

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

46

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PLANS PASSED BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: 2014

-110% -90% -70% -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70%

Western Cape

Eastern Cape

Gauteng

Kwazulu Natal

Mpumalanga

Northern Cape

Free State

Limpopo

Northwest

Total

WesternCape

EasternCape

GautengKwazulu

NatalMpumalan

gaNorthern


Office and banking 21.61%1.98%60.39%9.34%1.33%2.98%0.15%0.83%1.40%100.00%

Shopping 4.38%7.24%50.28%3.69%3.89%0.51%0.33%2.06%27.62%100.00%

Industrial and warehouse 18.46%8.66%50.13%14.52%4.71%0.91%0.00%0.80%1.80%100.00%

Other buildings 28.45%4.06%33.02%25.06%6.36%0.11%0.68%0.04%2.23%100.00%


Total Non Res Buildings Completed 20.43%7.00%47.09%11.77%3.90%1.45%0.26%0.89%7.20%100.00%

% Change Cum YTD 2014 vs 2013 Non Residential -44.16%-25.38%27.77%-3.04%28.52%78.71%-90.77%-36.41%108.64%-6.06%

GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES 23.45%5.74%44.48%9.80%6.43%1.09%1.60%1.76%5.64%100.00%

% Change Cum YTD 2014 vs 2013: Total Res & Non Res -38.84%-20.54%12.49%-9.20%24.30%16.28%-49.00%9.86%35.98%-9.84%

* Dec 2014

NON RES TOTAL AND GRAND TOTAL BC BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: 2014: M2(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU BC Dashboard, Chart 737)

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

47

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: 2014

-110% -90% -70% -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70%

Western Cape

Eastern Cape

Gauteng

Kwazulu Natal

Mpumalanga

Northern Cape

Free State

Limpopo

Northwest

Total

WesternCape

EasternCape

GautengKwazulu

NatalMpumalan

gaNorthern


Office and banking 21.61%1.98%60.39%9.34%1.33%2.98%0.15%0.83%1.40%100.00%

Shopping 4.38%7.24%50.28%3.69%3.89%0.51%0.33%2.06%27.62%100.00%

Industrial and warehouse 18.46%8.66%50.13%14.52%4.71%0.91%0.00%0.80%1.80%100.00%

Other buildings 28.45%4.06%33.02%25.06%6.36%0.11%0.68%0.04%2.23%100.00%


Total Non Res Buildings Completed 20.43%7.00%47.09%11.77%3.90%1.45%0.26%0.89%7.20%100.00%

% Change Cum YTD 2014 vs 2013 Non Residential -44.16%-25.38%27.77%-3.04%28.52%78.71%-90.77%-36.41%108.64%-6.06%

GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES 23.45%5.74%44.48%9.80%6.43%1.09%1.60%1.76%5.64%100.00%

% Change Cum YTD 2014 vs 2013: Total Res & Non Res -38.84%-20.54%12.49%-9.20%24.30%16.28%-49.00%9.86%35.98%-9.84%

* Dec 2014

NON RES TOTAL AND GRAND TOTAL BC BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: 2014: M2(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU BC Dashboard, Chart 737)

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

48

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: TOTAL NON RES AND GRAND TOTAL C BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: 2015 VS 2014

-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400%

Western Cape

Eastern Cape

Gauteng

Kwazulu Natal

Mpumalanga

Northern Cape

Free State

Limpopo

Northwest

Total

WesternCape

EasternCape

GautengKwazulu

NatalMpumalanga

NorthernCape

Free StateLimpopoNorthwestTotal

TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2015 24.22%4.91%39.76%17.95%2.19%0.40%2.57%0.87%7.11%100.00%

% Change Cum YTD 2015 vs 2014 Non Residential 0.98%-63.28%-37.13%67.05%-61.00%-88.31%1210.68%-20.44%35.45%-24.78%

GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES CUM YTD 2015 26.87%4.89%39.17%10.45%5.80%1.00%4.37%1.20%6.25%100.00%

% Change Cum YTD 2015 vs 2014: Total Res & Non Res 12.55%-25.86%-9.72%9.10%-12.85%-35.64%221.46%-12.03%23.41%-14.63%

TOTAL NON RES & GRAND TOTAL RES & NON RES BC BY PROVINCE:*YTD 2015 vs 2014: M2 (*MAY)

(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings: Buildings Completed RSA, Chart 740)

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

49

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: PRIVATE NON RESIDENTIAL BC BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: YTD 2014

11.6

9%

2.9

5%

2.8

8%

2.8

3%

2.7

7%

2.6

4%

2.5

6%

2.4

9%

2.4

3%

2.2

9%

1.9

4%

1.8

4%

1.8

3%

1.8

3%

1.7

1%

1.6

4%

1.4

4%

1.4

1%

1.3

5%

1.3

3%

1.2

8%

1.1

8%

1.0

9%

1.0

4%

1.0

0%

0.9

5%

0.8

8%

0.8

3%

0.8

3%

0.8

2%

0.8

1%

0.8

0%

0.7

9%

0.7

6%

0.7

4%

0.6

9%

0.6

9%

0.6

8%

0.6

6%

0.6

4%

0.6

0%

0.5

9%

0.5

6%

0.5

5%

0.5

4%

0.5

3%

0.5

2%

0.5

2%

0.5

2%

0.4

8%

0.4

5%

0.4

5%

0.4

5%

0.4

4%

0.4

4%

0.4

2%

0.4

2%

0.4

0%

0.3

9%

0.3

8%

0.3

7%

0.3

7%

0.3

7%

0.3

6%

0.3

6%

0.3

5%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

City o

f Joha

nnesburg

City o

f T

sh

wane -

South

ern

Reg

ion

City o

f C

ape T

ow

n -

Nort

hern

Dis

tric

t

Ekurh

ule

ni M

etr

opolit

an M

un

icip

alit

y -

…

Eth

ekw

ini M

unic

ipalit

y -

Centr

al

Ne

lson M

andela

Ba

y M

unic

ipalit

y

Ste

ve

Tsh

we

te L

oca

l M

unic

ipalit

y

Ekurh

ule

ni M

etr

opolit

an M

un

icip

alit

y -

…

City o

f C

ape T

ow

n -

Mitchells

Pla

in /…

City o

f C

ape T

ow

n -

Table

Bay D

istr

ict

Eth

ekw

ini M

unic

ipalit

y -

Nort

h

More

tele

Lo

ca

l M

unic

ipalit

y

Eth

ekw

ini M

unic

ipalit

y -

Oute

r W

est…

Gre

ate

r Le

taba

Munic

ipalit

y

Mosse

l B

ay M

unic

ipalit

y

Ekurh

ule

ni M

etr

opolit

an M

un

icip

alit

y -

…

Em

ala

hle

ni L

ocal M

unic

ipalit

y -

Witbank

Georg

e M

unic

ipalit

y

Um

ngen

i M

unic

ipa

lity

Potc

hefs

troom

City C

ouncil

Ne

wca

stle M

unic

ipalit

y

Mbom

bela

Loca

l M

unic

ipalit

y

Overs

trand M

unic

ipa

lity

Lukhan

ji M

unic

ipalit

y

Thab

a C

hw

eu

Munic

ipalit

y -

Lyd

enburg

Govan M

beki M

unic

ipalit

y

Ekurh

ule

ni M

etr

opolit

an M

un

icip

alit

y -

…

Sol P

laatje

Munic

ipalit

y

Aba

Qulu

si M

unic

ipalit

y

Madib

eng L

ocal M

unic

ipalit

y

Elu

ndin

i Local M

unic

ipalit

y

Gre

ate

r T

aung L

ocal M

unic

ipalit

y

Bre

ede V

alle

y M

unic

ipalit

y

Buildings Completed by Municipality in SA in descending order: 2012 (m2)(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Database)

32 Municipalities accounts for 63% of building s completed in South

Africa.

The City of Johannesburgaccounts for 11,69% of building s

completed in South Africa by Municipality.

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

50

50

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: THE MAJOR BUILDING PRODUCT GROUPS BY VALUE: 2013

18.67%

17.20%

8.51%

3.32%

9.21%

6.25%

5.19%

3.10%

6.45%

2.24%

2.00%

3.20%

2.32%

2.08%

1.34%

2.56%

1.24%

1.44%

0.76%

1.16%

0.91%

0.43%

0.30%

0.11%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

Cement

Aggregate and Sand

Reinforcing Steel and Sections

Decorative Paint

Infrastructure Pipes and Fittings

Roofing and Vertical Cladding

Walling

Flooring

Flatboard (PB, MDF, Other)**

Sanware

Roof Trusses

Frames

Taps, Mixers and Fittings

Ceilings and Partitioning

Glass and Mirrors

Geysers

Plumbing Pipes and Fittings

Paving

Doors

Insulation

Windowsills, Fasciaboards and…

Garage Doors

Rainwater Goods

Wall Tiles

The market for major Building Product Groups by value: 2014 (Source: BMI-BRSCU: Chart 2050)

Total value of major Building Product Groups = R128 Billion in 2014.

Major Building Product Groups account for 45% of Total Building and Construction

Materials and 27% of Total Investment in Building and Construction.

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

51

51

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: THE MAJOR BUILDING PRODUCT GROUPS BY SECTOR AND SEGMENT: 2013

0

1.55%

9.58%

4.26%

0.29%

3.44%

19.13%

11.79%

0.32%

0.02%

11.69%

23.82%

20.02%

62.97%

2.64%

2.24%

3.10%

0.73%

1.82%

10.52%

1.94%

24.57%

37.03%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL

- Dwelling Houses < 80m2

- Dwelling houses > 80m2

- Townhouses and Flats

- Other (Including Hotels)

- Additions and Alterations

Sub-total

PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL

- Affordable Housing

- General Government

- Public Corporations

- Private Business Enterprises

Sub-total

- Unrecorded Res Additions and Alterations (EQ…

TOTAL RESIDENTIAL

BUILDING TYPE : NON RESIDENTIAL

- Offices

- Shops (Commercial)

- Industrial

- Other (Including Casinos)

- Recorded Additions and Alterations

TOTAL PRIVATE NON RESIDENTIAL SEGMENT

- Unrecorded Non Res Additions and Alterations

TOTAL PUBLIC NON RESIDENTIAL SEGMENT

TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL SECTOR

DEMAND FOR MAJOR BUILDING PRODUCT GROUPS BY TYPE OF BUILDING: 2014 (R MILLION)(Source: BMI-BRSCU: Chart 2055)

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

52

52

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: THE MAJOR BUILDING PRODUCT GROUPS BY PROVINCE: 2014

Western Cape Eastern Cape Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumulanga Northern Cape Free State Limpopo Northwest

Province 27.19% 6.72% 37.42% 14.12% 3.92% 1.24% 3.88% 1.56% 3.95%

27.19%

6.72%

37.42%

14.12%

3.92%

1.24%

3.88%

1.56%

3.95%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

The market for Major Building Product Groups by Province: 2014(Source: SARB, StatsSA; MFA; BMI-BRSCU Workings: Chart 2052)

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

53

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES (TONNES) ENDED 2013 AT + 5,26% COMPARED TO 2012

53

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES: YTD 2014 VS 2013


Cum YTD sales: 2013 773,708 1,652,39 2,619,42 3,578,14 4,649,90 5,820,21 6,839,07 7,901,84 9,058,79 10,173,4 11,378,3 12,167,8

Cum YTD sales 2014 732,298 1,563,95 2,479,22 3,389,43 4,406,96 5,518,05 6,584,12 7,696,14 8,906,69 10,040,2 11,265,6 12,068,4

% Change Cum YTD 2014 VS 2013 -5.35% -5.35% -5.35% -5.27% -5.22% -5.19% -3.73% -2.60% -1.68% -1.31% -0.99% -0.82%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

To

nn

es

Domestic Cement Sales: Cumulative 2014 vs 2013(Source: Cement & Concrete Institute; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

Cu

mu

liti

ve %

Ch

an

ge:

YT

D 2

012 v

s 2

011

ACTUAL

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

54

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES (TONNES) ENDED 2014 AT -0,82% COMPARED TO 2013

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES: YTD FC 2015 VS 2014


Cum YTD sales: 2014 732,298 1,563,95 2,479,22 3,389,43 4,406,96 5,518,05 6,584,12 7,696,14 8,906,69 10,040,2 11,265,6 12,068,4

YTD Forecast 2015 846,511 1,807,87 2,865,89 3,829,43 4,926,34 6,044,08 7,144,91 8,261,30 9,400,69 10,582,0 11,765,0 12,599,9

% Change FC 2015 VS 2014 15.60% 15.60% 15.60% 12.98% 11.79% 9.53% 8.52% 7.34% 5.55% 5.40% 4.43% 4.40%

-6%

-1%

4%

9%

14%

19%

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

To

nn

es

Domestic Cement Sales: *YTD FC 2015 vs 2014(Source: Cement & Concrete Institute; BMI-BRSCU Workings, Chart 2139)

Cu

mu

liti

ve %

Ch

an

ge:

YT

D 2

015 v

s 2

014

YTD FORECAST

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

55

LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER SALES (M3) ENDED 2013 AT + 6,38% COMPARED TO 2012.

55

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER SALES: YTD FC 2014 VS 2013: M3


2013 Cum Y/Y Local Building 79,559 172,34 262,21 352,29 447,92 545,25 655,34 771,90 878,45 1,009, 1,127, 1,185,

2014 Cum Y/Y Local Building 93,078 199,060 299,608 403,134 504,088 613,310 735,240 845,355 962,921 1,084,4 1,210,5 1,296,0

% Change Cum Y/Y Local Building: 2014 vs 2013 16.99% 15.50% 14.26% 14.43% 12.54% 12.48% 12.19% 9.52% 9.62% 7.39% 7.36% 9.35%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

Cu

bic

Metr

es

Lumber Sales by End-use: Local Building: Cum Y/Y 2014 vs 2013(Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

% C

han

ge C

um

Y/Y

Lo

cal

Bu

ild

ing

: 2014 v

s 2

013

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

56

LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER SALES (M3) ENDED 2014 AT + 9,35% COMPARED TO 2013.

56

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER SALES: YTD FC 2015 VS 2014: M3


2014 Cum Y/Y Local Building 93,078 199,060 299,608 403,134 504,088 613,310 735,240 845,355 962,921 1,084,43 1,210,56 1,296,00

2015 Cum Y/Y FC Local Building 97,517 210,347 324,145 440,072 540,406 675,311 810,947 920,084 1,038,8 1,163,6 1,291,7 1,367,0

% Change Cum Y/Y FC Local Building: 2015 vs 2014 4.77% 5.67% 8.19% 9.16% 7.20% 10.11% 10.30% 8.84% 7.88% 7.30% 6.71% 5.48%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

Cu

bic

Metr

es

Lumber Sales by End-use: Local Building: Cum *YTD FC 2015 vs 2014(Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings: Lumber Sales, Chart 2257)

% C

han

ge C

um

Y/Y

Lo

cal

Bu

ild

ing

: 2015 v

s 2

014

CUM YTD ACTUAL CUM YTD FORECAST

BMI

© BMI-BRSCU 57

In July 2007 Browder’s Hermitage Fund recognised an auction of debt from leveraged buy-out deals

that failed to draw enough bidders for what it was: a sign that the world had run out of the ability to

absorb new debt. (Ramo: 2009: 55)

Mortgage Advances MAY return to 2006 levels by 2020 (under the high road scenario) . . . But . . . the Banks need to REGAIN their appetite for Mortgage Loans?

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: TOTAL MORTGAGE ADV: 2002-2013 (CURRENT VALUE) THE SF SCENARIOS: 2014-2020 (CONSTANT 2013 VALUES)

238,1

47

253,5

99

328,6

56

346,6

30

367,1

32

373,1

35

402,0

45

450,5

07

487,3

38

238,1

47

253,5

99

328,6

56

330,1

98

333,2

17

322,0

05

330,8

53

354,1

92

365,4

39

441 410

208 488

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

R M

illi

on

s (C

urr

en

t a

nd

Co

nsta

nt

20

14

V

alu

es)

Total Mortgage Advances: 2002 - 2014 (Current Values)The Strategic Forum Scenarios: 2015-2020 (Constant 2014 Value)

(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Mortgage Dashboard; Scenarios for All Prop, Chart 639)

High Road New York Scenario: 2012-2020

Higher Middle Road London Scenario: 2012-2020

Lower Middle Road Sao Paolo Scenario: 2012-2020

Low Road Harari Scenario: 2012-2020

Sao Paolo Scenario:2012-2020

Lower Middle Road Sao Paolo Scenariois Current

Most likely future

R233 Billion decline in only 2 years!

Under the Upper Middle Road the 2007 level could be

reached by 2021.

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

58

85,3

84

89,7

99

85,5

18

91,4

21 111,0

35

132,4

09

144,8

86

156,8

69

161,1

84

158,8

55

141,4

64

131,8

55

126,5

56

115,2

41

117,9

92

127,6

88

135,3

61

140,1

47

147,1

01

155,4

81

166,2

65

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

R M

ILL

ION

S (

CO

NS

TA

NT

2014 V

AL

UE

S)

TOTAL INVESTMENT IN BUILDING*: 2000-2014 THE STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS: 2015-2020 (CONSTANT 2014 VALUE)

(Source: SARB, StatsSA, MFA, BMI-BRSCU Workings; Chart 2841)

TOTAL BUILDINGS : 2000-2014: LOWER MIDDLE ROAD SOYUZ SCENARIO: 2015-2020

1984 PEAK LEVEL OF INVESTMENT

TOTAL BUILDINGS HIGH ROAD COLUMBUS SCENARIO

TOTAL BUILDINGS LOW ROAD CHALLENGER SCENARIO

TOTAL BUILDINGS HIGHER MIDDLE ROAD APOLLO SCENARIO

CURRENT MOST LIKELY SCENARIOBETWEEN LOWER MIDDLE AND LOW

ROAD SCENARIOS

High Road 10%

Upper Middle Road 20%

Lower Middle Road 40%

Low Road 30%

* Excluding Affordable Housing and Unrecorded Residential and Non Residential Additions and Alterations.

58

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: TOTAL INV IN BLDNG: 2000-2013 (CURRENT VALUE) THE SF SCENARIOS: 2014-2020 (CONSTANT 2013 VALUES)

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

59

59

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: TOTAL INV IN CONSTR: 2000-2013 (CURRENT) THE SF SCENARIOS: 2014-2020 (CONSTANT 2014 VALUES)

41 3

45

45 4

01

57 5

83

63 8

57

68 2

51

80 2

13 113 3

82 1

64 3

59

195 2

32

180 5

53

185 9

80

181 1

61

202 5

15

230 8

11

226 1

95

237 5

05

255 3

17

275 7

43

300 2

84

316 1

99

y = 67161e0.0885x

R² = 0.9625

y = 47142e0.1061x

R² = 0.8993

y = 115116e0.0435x

R² = 0.9395

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

R M

ILL

ION

S (

CO

NS

TA

NT

2014 V

AL

UE

S)

INVESTMENT IN CONSTRUCTION: 2001-2014

THE STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS: 2015-2020(Source: SARB, StatsSA, MFA, BMI-BRSCU Workings: Chart 69)

MOTORWAY SCENARIO: 2007-2015 HIGHWAY SCENARIO: 2007-2015FREEWAY SCENARIO: 2001-2015 BYWAY SCENARIO: 2001-2015Peak 1980 Level Expon. (MOTORWAY SCENARIO: 2007-2015)Expon. (FREEWAY SCENARIO: 2001-2015) Expon. (BYWAY SCENARIO: 2001-2020)

The currentMOST LIKELY FUTURE

is theFREEWAY SCENARIO

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

60

60

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: THE MAJOR BUILDING PRODUCT GROUPS BY VALUE: 2013

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Lower Middle Road Scenario 107,525 118,050 129,365 155,633 182,485 211,487 253,298 267,445 257,211 243,175 241,392 241,293 245,343 248,666 262,496 276,568 295,892 320,222 339,645

High Road Scenario 107,525 118,050 129,365 155,633 182,485 211,487 253,298 267,445 257,211 243,175 241,392 241,293 245,343 278,464 311,602 339,646 371,912 409,103 454,105

10

7,5

25

11

8,0

50

12

9,3

65

15

5,6

33

18

2,4

85

21

1,4

87

25

3,2

98

26

7,4

45

25

7,2

11

24

3,1

75

24

1,3

92

24

1,2

93

24

5,3

43

24

8,6

66

26

2,4

96

27

6,5

68

29

5,8

92

32

0,2

22

33

9,6

45

10

7,5

25

11

8,0

50

12

9,3

65

155,

633

18

2,4

85

211,

487 25

3,29

8

26

7,4

45

257,

211

24

3,1

75

24

1,3

92

24

1,2

93

24

5,3

43 27

8,46

4 311,

602

339,

646 37

1,9

12 40

9,1

03 45

4,10

5

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

R M

ILL

ION

S (

CO

NS

TA

NT

2014 V

AL

UE

S)

The Market for Building and Construction Materials: 2002-2014Lower Middle and High Road Scenarios: 2015-2020 (R Million) (Constant 2014 Values)

(Source: MFA; StatsSA; SARB; BMI-BRSCU Workings: Chart 2708)

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

61

61

Average growth over the next 6 years looks MODERATE but RESPECTABLE . . .

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: % CHANGE IN INV IN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION: 2011-2020 (R MILLION) (CONSTANT 2013 VALUES)

Mar-15 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 AVE 2015-2020

MORTGAGE ADVANCES (VALUE) FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST

Mortgage Advances on Existing Buildings 7.24% 25.37% 9.69% 2.41% -0.69% 0.28% -3.70% 2.33% 6.62% 2.75% 1.26%

Mortgage Advances on Construction of New Buildings 10.22% 73.33% -16.12% 5.17% 4.87% 5.30% -1.35% 4.84% 9.20% 5.20% 4.68%

Mortgage Advances on Vacant Land -47.57% 56.06% 53.86% 53.04% 56.10% 50.22% 4.07% -0.44% 0.00% 13.00% 20.49%

Total Gross New Mortgage Loans and Re-advances 6.49% 29.59% 6.76% 3.27% 0.47% 0.91% -3.36% 2.75% 7.05% 3.18% 1.83%

Total Mortgage Loans Outstanding 1.72% 4.44% 4.70% 1.60% 0.47% 0.91% -3.36% 2.75% 7.05% 3.18% 1.83%

Mortgage Advances Weighted Average 2.70% 10.42% 6.48% 2.05% 0.61% 1.05% -3.33% 2.77% 7.07% 3.22% 1.90%

PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: GFCF

GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION (VALUE) FC 2015 FC 2016 FC 2017 FC 2018 FC 2019 FC 2020 AVERAGE FC

-1.13% 1.01% -7.71% 14.02% 6.90% 4.81% 2.42% 5.47% 6.86% 7.79% 5.71%

6.91% 4.30% -3.24% 7.04% 7.04% 7.11% 4.05% 4.57% 5.09% 6.09% 5.66%

2.89% 2.01% -5.37% 6.97% 6.98% 6.03% 3.29% 4.99% 5.91% 6.88% 5.68%

17.87% 18.81% 0.70% -0.35% -0.35% 4.90% 7.40% 7.90% 8.80% 5.20% 5.64%

Gross Fixed Capital Formation Weighted Average 2.93% 9.89% -2.60% 4.55% 3.63% 5.51% 5.16% 6.32% 7.24% 6.12% 5.66%

PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: BUILDING PLANS PASSED

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST AVERAGE FC

4.94% 8.82% 6.36% 3.33% 3.02% 3.72% -3.38% 6.21% 12.67% 6.30% 4.76%

12.56% 17.29% 13.62% 6.36% 3.08% 3.78% -3.32% 6.27% 12.73% 6.36% 4.82%

23.18% -6.71% 2.17% 2.74% 2.77% 2.67% 3.87% 3.73% 3.60% 4.62% 3.54%

30.89% 0.23% 10.93% 7.62% 3.01% 2.90% 4.11% 3.96% 3.83% 4.85% 3.78%

10.70% 3.37% 5.00% 3.14% 2.94% 3.39% -1.10% 5.39% 9.72% 5.78% 4.35%

18.65% 11.04% 12.70% 6.77% 3.05% 3.49% -0.88% 5.48% 9.70% 5.87% 4.45%

Building Plans Passed Weighted Average (m2) 11.02% 3.63% 5.02% 3.14% 2.94% 3.39% -1.04% 5.40% 9.81% 5.78% 4.38%

Building Plans Passed Weighted Average (R) 27.76% 17.03% 19.10% 6.77% 3.05% 3.49% -0.87% 5.50% 9.85% 5.89% 4.48%

PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: BUILDINGS COMPLETED

FC 2015 FC 2016 FC 2017 FC 2018 FC 2019 FC 2020

FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST AVERAGE FC

5.87% -11.65% 10.87% 5.65% 2.67% 3.37% -3.70% 5.86% 12.30% 5.95% 4.41%

14.07% -0.23% 15.93% 8.56% 2.73% 3.43% -3.65% 5.92% 12.36% 6.00% 4.46%

13.07% -6.06% -15.54% -11.00% 2.53% 2.42% 3.62% 3.48% 3.35% 4.36% 3.29%

20.23% 3.69% -6.40% -7.57% 2.70% 2.60% 3.80% 3.66% 3.53% 4.55% 3.47%

8.10% -9.84% 2.12% 0.03% 2.62% 3.05% -1.25% 5.02% 9.20% 5.43% 4.01%

16.13% 1.13% 8.36% 2.83% 2.72% 3.43% -3.65% 5.92% 12.36% 6.00% 4.46%

Buildings Completed Weighted Average (m2) 8.15% -9.80% 2.04% 0.34% 2.62% 3.10% -1.19% 5.03% 9.28% 5.43% 4.05%

Buildings Completed Weighted Average (R) 16.17% 1.11% 8.38% 3.12% 2.72% 3.33% -2.29% 5.51% 10.83% 5.75% 4.31%

PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: CEMENT SALES

FC 2015 FC 2016 FC 2017 FC 2018 FC 2019 FC 2020 AVERAGE FC

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES (Tonnes) 5.26% -0.82% 15.60% 4.40% 3.47% 5.46% 4.68% 6.97% 8.86% 5.80% 5.88%

PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER SALES

2013 vs 2012 FC 2015 FC 2016 FC 2017 FC 2018 FC 2019 FC 2020 AVERAGE FC

6.38% 9.35% 8.84% 5.48% 2.67% 3.37% -3.70% 5.86% 12.30% 5.95% 4.41%

PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST BY INDICATOR

FC 2015 FC 2016 FC 2017 FC 2018 FC 2019 FC 2020 AVERAGE FC

7.70% 0.59% 7.87% 3.34% 2.93% 3.83% -0.31% 5.82% 10.06% 5.74% 4.68%

12.39% 12.29% 7.32% 7.21% 2.50% 3.34% -0.33% 5.02% 8.75% 5.24% 4.09%

TOTAL INV IN BUILDING -5.77% -9.74% -10.80% 4.88% 5.70% 6.24% 2.82% 5.73% 7.36% 7.05% 5.82%

TOTAL INV IN CONSTRUCTION 11.81% 13.97% 13.97% 13.98% -0.35% 4.90% 7.40% 7.90% 8.80% 5.20% 5.64%

TOTAL INV IN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION -0.04% 1.68% 1.68% 0.88% 1.93% 5.51% 5.26% 6.95% 8.24% 5.98% 5.65%

2015 YTD FC vs

2014 YTD Act

2015 YTD FC vs

2014 YTD Act

2015 YTD FC vs

2014 YTD Act

OVERALL AVERAGE (m2)

OVERALL AVERAGE (R)

Non Residential BPP (R)

Total BPP (m2)

Total BPP (R)

Jul-15

BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) (m2 and value)

May-15

GFCF Total Building

BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP) (m2 and value)

Residential BPP (m2)

Total BC (m2)

Total BC (R)

Non Residential BPP (m2)

2014 vs 2013

2014 vs 2013

Mar-15

Residential BPP (R)

2014 vs 2013

2015 YTD Act vs

2014 YTD Act

2013 vs 2012

GFCF Residential


Jul-15

Mar-15

2013 vs 2012

2015 YTD Act vs

2014 YTD Act

2014 vs 2013

2015 YTD Act vs

2014 YTD Act

LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER SALES (m3)

Aug-15

Residential BC (m2)

2015 YTD Act vs

2014 YTD Act

Non Residential BC (m2)

Non Residential BC (R)

GFCF Construction

PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: MORTGAGE ADVANCES

Residential BC (R)

2015 YTD Act vs

2014 YTD Act

2015 YTD Act vs

2014 YTD Act

PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST BY SECTOR

2013 vs 2012

2013 vs 2012

2013 vs 2012 2014 vs 2013

2014 vs 2013

2015 YTD Act vs

2014 YTD Act

2014 vs 2013

2015 YTD FC vs

2014 YTD Act

2015 YTD FC vs

2014 YTD Act

2015 YTD FC vs

2014 YTD Act

2013 vs 2012

2015 YTD FC vs

2014 YTD Act

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

62

62

Average growth over the next 6 years looks MODERATE, but RESPECTABLE . . .

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: % CHANGE IN INV IN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION: 2012-2020 (R MILLION) (CONSTANT 2014 VALUES)

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

FOR

ECA

ST

FOR

ECA

ST

FOR

ECA

ST

FOR

ECA

ST

FOR

ECA

ST

FOR

ECA

ST

FOR

ECA

ST

FOR

ECA

ST

2013 vs 2012 2014 vs 2013 2015 YTD Actvs 2014 YTD

Act

2015 YTD FCvs 2014 YTD

Act

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 AVE 2015-2020

AVE YTD FC2015 - 2020

Year on Year percentage change: 2012 - 2020Investment in Buiding and Construction, Average m2 and Value

(Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU Database, Chart 1)

TOTAL INV IN BUILDING TOTAL INV IN CONSTRUCTION OVERALL AVERAGE (m2) OVERALL AVERAGE (R)

*YTD ACTUAL (* MAY) FORECAST 2015 - 2020

After a poor start for the first quarter of 2015, we are back on-track for average

YTD Forecast growth between 5% - 8% over the period 2015 - 2020

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

63 © BMI-BRSCU

63

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: INVESTMENT IN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION: 2014-2020 (R MILLION) (CONSTANT 2014 VALUES)

2011 2012* 2013 2014 FC 2015 FC 2016 FC 2017 FC 2018 FC 2019 FC 2020 AVERAGE

-2.25% -3.24% 7.24% -6.30% 8.56% 3.33% -3.74% 5.82% 12.25% 5.90% 5.35%

-7.93% 9.89% -20.86% -2.53% -1.31% 8.19% 9.27% 9.27% 5.69% 8.48% 6.60%

-5.67% 4.48% -10.14% -4.25% 3.09% 5.91% 3.32% 3.32% 5.74% 7.32% 4.78%

-11.41% 9.90% 20.23% -18.69% -7.57% 2.75% 3.95% 3.95% 3.81% 4.70% 1.93%

-14.04% -11.54% -8.27% 8.41% 13.30% 8.63% 4.08% 4.08% 4.82% 6.54% 6.91%

1.20% -5.97% 0.38% -1.45% 7.04% 7.11% 4.05% 4.05% 4.57% 6.09% 5.48%

-16.57% 3.04% -18.48% -30.60% 4.93% 5.52% -0.94% -0.94% 7.83% 7.90% 4.05%

-7.45% 0.84% -9.74% -10.80% 4.88% 6.25% 2.65% 2.65% 5.75% 7.02% 4.87%

0.64% -1.98% 11.81% 13.97% -0.35% 4.90% 7.40% 7.40% 7.90% 5.20% 5.41%

-3.92% -0.45% -0.04% 0.88% 1.93% 5.51% 5.26% 5.26% 6.95% 5.98% 5.15%

-6.74% 0.50% -2.79% -5.14% 3.45% 5.81% 3.53% 4.48% 6.53% 6.51% 5.05%

* The INTERACTIVE Forecast is based on the moving YTD Forecast using the same growth rates, but from the moving totals. Source: BMI-BRSCU

Total Unrecorded Additions & Alterations

Total Investment In Building

Total Investment In Construction

Total Investment In Building and Construction

AVERAGE

Sector and Segment

Total Public Non-Residential

Total Non Residential

Total Private Residential

Total Public Residential

Total Residential (Including AH)

Total Private Non-Residential

Y/Y % CHANGE IN INVESTMENT IN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION BY SECTOR AND SEGMENT: 2012-2020 (R*MILLION) (CONSTANT 2014 VALUES) (*INTERACTIVE FORECAST)

LOWER MIDDLE ROAD SCENARIO: 2015-2020Y/Y Growth

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

64

64

Flats and Townhouses will increase share marginally. . .

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: % CHANGE IN INV IN RES BUILDING BY SEGMENT: 2010-2020 (R MILLION) (CONSTANT 2013 VALUES)

6.46% 7.85% 7.81% 6.78% 8.12% 7.99% 7.86% 7.73% 7.60% 7.46% 7.33%

43.38%45.72%

48.69%46.59%

50.08% 49.40% 48.72% 48.04% 47.36% 46.68% 46.00%

19.87%16.57%

19.54%21.09%

22.28% 22.55% 22.81% 23.07% 23.33% 23.59% 23.86%

4.26% 2.95%

1.02% 1.44%

1.53% 1.75% 1.97% 2.19% 2.41% 2.63% 2.86%

26.02% 26.91%22.94% 24.09%

17.99% 18.32% 18.65% 18.97% 19.30% 19.63% 19.96%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

PE

RC

EN

TA

GE

PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT BY SEGMENT: 2010-2014 (PERCENTAGE)LOWER MIDDLE ROAD SOYUZ SCENARIO: 2015-2020

(Source: SARB, StatsSA, MFA, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

Additions & alterations Other (Incl. hotels & casinos) Townhouses & Flats

Dwelling-houses > 80 m2 Dwelling-houses < 80 m2

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

65

65

Additions and Alterations and Industrial and Warehousing will increase share marginally. . .

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: % CH IN INV IN NON RES BLDNG BY SEGMENT: 2010-2020 (R MILLION) (CONSTANT 2014 VALUES)

23.46%17.19%

20.98%

31.37%25.04% 24.65% 24.25% 23.86% 23.46% 23.07% 22.67%

21.64%

24.26% 18.55%

17.39%

21.24% 21.40% 21.57% 21.73% 21.89% 22.06% 22.22%

23.87%

22.95%31.35%

23.13% 29.47% 28.78% 28.08% 27.38% 26.69% 25.99% 25.30%

5.99%9.27%

7.05% 6.14%

6.93% 6.91% 6.89% 6.87% 6.85% 6.82% 6.80%

25.03% 26.32%22.06% 21.97%

17.31% 18.26% 19.21% 20.16% 21.11% 22.06% 23.01%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

PE

RC

EN

TA

GE

PRIVATE NON RES INVESTMENT BY SEGMENT: 2010-2014 (PERCENTAGE)LOWER MIDDLE ROAD SOYUZ SCENARIO: 2015-2020(Source: SARB, StatsSA, MFA, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

Additions & Alterations Other Industrial & warehouse Shops Offices

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

66

Additions and Alterations and Shopping will increase share marginally. . .

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: % CHANGE IN INV IN NON RES BLDNG BY SEGMENT: 2010-2020 (R MILLION) (2013 VALUES)

2,767

17,062

7,592

520

6,130

20,993

569

33

20,824

76,490

4,694

3,981

5,524

1,300

3,245

10,951

3,335

29,466

62,495

35,652

3,457

178,094

0

20

,00

0

40

,00

0

60

,00

0

80

,00

0

10

0,0

00

12

0,0

00

14

0,0

00

16

0,0

00

18

0,0

00

20

0,0

00



Townhouses & Flats



PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL

Affordable Housing

General Government

Public corporations


TOTAL RESIDENTIAL


Offices

Shops


Other



General Government

Public Corporations





GRAND TOTAL BUILDING

INVESTMENT IN BUILDING BY SECTOR AND BY SEGMENT: 2014: R MILLION(TOTAL = R178 094 MILLION)

(Source: SARB, StatsSA, MFA, BMI-BRSCU Building Industry Dashboard, Inv in Bulding 2002-2020 (R), Chart 2756)

Private Residential BC = R34,071 Billion andMortgage Advances on New Buildings = R36,210 Billion.

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

67 © BMI-BRSCU

67


2011 2012* 2013 2014 YTD FC 2015 FC 2015 FC 2016 FC 2017 FC 2018 FC 2019 FC 2020 AVERAGE

- Dwelling-houses < 80 m2 18.81% -3.80% -6.87% 12.23% 2.22% 1.06% 1.73% -5.26% 4.12% 10.41% 4.14% 2.70%

- Dwelling-houses > 80 m2 3.01% 3.06% 2.61% 0.71% 3.23% 1.33% 2.01% -4.99% 4.42% 10.74% 4.46% 2.99%

- Townhouses & Flats -18.52% 14.11% 15.79% -1.01% 1.50% 3.93% 4.63% -2.54% 7.12% 13.62% 7.18% 5.66%

- Other (Incl. hotels & casinos) -32.20% -66.46% 51.23% -0.88% 3.34% 17.65% 16.55% 7.20% 16.64% 22.68% 14.92% 15.94%

- Additions & alterations 1.08% -17.52% 12.64% -30.04% 1.77% 4.60% 5.28% -1.96% 7.75% 14.26% 7.77% 6.28%

TOTAL PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL BC -2.25% -3.24% 7.24% -6.30% 2.50% 2.73% 3.37% -3.70% 5.86% 12.29% 5.94% 4.41%

PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL

- Affordable Housing -22.34% 2.50% -17.81% 0.07% -7.00% -7.00% 9.24% 5.92% 6.50% 5.50% 6.00% 4.36%

- General Government 100.00% 203.39% -25.28% -15.70% 510.97% 510.97% 5.00% 3.00% 5.50% 6.50% 8.00% 89.83%

- Public corporations 88.57% 53.03% 41.58% -81.82% 87.66% 87.66% 5.00% 3.00% 5.50% 6.50% 8.00% 19.28%

- Private Business Enterprises 4.93% -2.77% -23.74% -3.98% 2.86% 2.49% 7.58% 13.48% 4.94% -1.41% 11.08% 6.36%

TOTAL PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL BC -7.93% 9.89% -20.86% -2.53% 4.86% 4.68% 8.10% 9.32% 5.65% 2.16% 8.57% 6.41%

TOTAL RESIDENTIAL (Incl AH) BC -5.67% 4.48% -10.14% -4.25% 3.81% 3.81% 6.02% 3.73% 5.73% 6.20% 7.46% 5.49%

TOTAL GFCF RES (Excludes AH) BC 45.50% -2.00% -7.06% -5.79% -5.79% 7.90% 4.97% 2.99% 5.47% 6.44% 7.98% 5.96%

PRIVATE NON-RESIDENTIAL BC

- Offices -35.09% 34.13% 79.80% -35.09% 3.37% 1.08% 0.95% 2.11% 1.94% 1.79% 2.75% 1.77%

- Shops -0.69% -15.96% 12.67% -0.68% -1.20% 3.50% 3.38% 4.59% 4.44% 4.30% 5.32% 4.25%

- Industrial & warehouse -14.81% 50.13% -11.32% 3.62% -0.24% 0.28% 0.12% 1.22% 1.02% 0.83% 1.75% 0.87%

- Other 37.07% -16.48% 4.74% -8.20% -3.84% 2.38% 2.27% 3.46% 3.32% 3.19% 4.21% 3.14%

- Additions & Alterations -6.84% -7.89% 19.72% -35.94% 2.79% 8.34% 7.93% 8.93% 8.54% 8.19% 9.05% 8.50%

TOTAL PRIVATE NON-RES BC -11.41% 9.90% 20.23% -18.69% 0.73% 2.70% 2.53% 3.73% 3.60% 3.47% 4.48% 3.42%

PUBLIC NON-RESIDENTIAL BC

- General Government -39.01% -25.04% 21.69% -0.39% 59.55% 59.55% 6.90% 4.00% 4.50% 5.00% 6.00% 14.32%

- Public Corporations 3.41% 33.16% -8.65% -44.89% 32.29% 32.29% 6.90% 4.00% 4.50% 5.00% 6.00% 9.78%

- Private Business Enterprises -1.73% -13.36% -17.73% 26.41% -8.23% -9.48% 10.01% 4.14% 5.06% 5.97% 6.94% 3.77%

TOTAL PUBLIC NON-RES BC -14.04% -11.54% -8.27% 8.41% 11.83% 10.98% 8.62% 4.08% 4.82% 5.55% 6.53% 6.76%

TOTAL GFCF NON RES BC 1.20% -5.97% 0.38% -1.44% 8.50% 8.50% 6.92% 3.98% 4.49% 5.00% 6.00% 5.82%

TOTAL GFCF RES AND NON RES BC 1.19% -4.02% -3.34% -3.53% 8.22% 8.22% 6.01% 3.52% 4.94% 5.67% 6.92% 5.88%

- Unrecorded Res Additions and Alterations -17.25% 3.90% -21.14% -30.04% 4.60% 4.60% 5.28% -1.96% 7.75% 14.26% 7.77% 6.28%

- Unrecorded Non Res Additions and Alterations -6.84% -7.89% 19.72% -35.94% 8.34% 8.34% 7.93% 8.93% 8.54% 8.19% 9.05% 8.50%

TOTAL UNREC ADD'S & ALT'S BC -16.57% 3.04% -18.48% -30.60% 4.93% 4.93% 5.52% -0.94% 7.83% 13.64% 7.90% 6.48%

TOTAL INV IN BUILDINGS -7.45% 0.84% -9.74% -10.80% 5.70% 5.70% 6.24% 2.81% 5.71% 7.34% 7.04% 5.81%

BC as % of Total Inv in Bldng 23.93% 24.00% 29.76% 29.66% 28.58% 28.82% 27.73% 26.67% 26.50% 26.94% 26.53% 27.20%

Priv Sector as % of Total Inv in Bldng 54.51% 55.25% 57.99% 51.62% 50.38% 50.62% 49.38% 47.54% 47.78% 49.46% 49.24% 49.00%

CONSTRUCTION 0.00%

- General government 10.59% 5.00% -1.70% 24.83% 2.39% 2.39% 9.50% 11.92% 12.26% 13.04% 9.15% 9.71%

- Public corporations -19.83% 4.00% -1.92% 0.88% -7.33% -7.33% -1.04% 0.94% 0.98% 1.33% -2.57% -1.29%

- Private Business Enterprises -19.05% 6.25% 92.26% 21.46% -0.59% -0.59% 6.49% 9.00% 9.49% 10.38% 6.71% 6.92%

TOTAL INV IN CONSTR 0.64% -1.98% 11.81% 13.98% -2.00% -2.00% 5.00% 7.50% 8.00% 8.90% 5.30% 5.45%

TOTAL INV IN BLDNG AND CONSTR -3.92% -0.45% -0.04% 1.68% 1.35% 1.35% 5.56% 5.36% 6.98% 8.21% 6.06% 5.59%

TOTAL GFCF CONSTRUCTION 0.64% -1.98% 11.81% 13.98% -2.00% -2.00% 5.00% 7.50% 8.00% 8.90% 5.85% 5.54%

TOTAL GFCF BLDNG AND CONSTR 3.93% -9.10% 9.53% 1.68% 7.38% 1.46% -10.03% 6.06% 6.92% 7.78% 0.00% 2.03%

Source: BMI-BRSCU

PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL BC

PROGNOSIS: INVESTMENT IN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST BY SECTOR AND SEGMENT (CONSTANT 2014 VALUES)

© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

68 © BMI-BRSCU

68

2015-2020 Average

R*Million R*Million % %

17,468 2,495 1.51% 0.63%

108,788 15,541 9.42% 3.93%

53,103 7,586 4.60% 1.92%

5,331 762 0.46% 0.19%

43,840 6,263 3.80% 1.58%

139,779 19,968 12.10% 5.05%

23,647 3,378 2.05% 0.85%

419 60 0.04% 0.02%

14,818 2,117 1.28% 0.54%407,192 58,170 35.26% 14.72%

29,703 4,243 2.57% 1.07%

27,450 3,921 2.38% 0.99%

33,906 4,844 2.94% 1.23%

8,619 1,231 0.75% 0.31%

26,072 3,725 2.26% 0.94%

119,780 17,111 10.37% 4.33%

30,245 4,321 2.62% 1.09%

189,077 27,011

464,851 66,407 40.25% 16.81%

254,968 36,424 22.08% 9.22%

27,783 3,969 2.41% 1.00%

1,154,794 164,971 100.00% 41.75%

684,411 114,06842.48% 24.74%

476,194 79,36629.55% 17.22%

450,637 75,106 27.97% 16.29%

1,611,242 268,540 100.00% 58.25%

2,766,036 461,006 100.00%

1,383,018

2,305,030

4,610,060

©BMI-BRSCU



GRAND TOTAL

CONSTRUCTION

General Government

Public Corporations



Shops


Other



Public authorities.

Private Business EnterprisesTOTAL RESIDENTIAL


Offices


INVESTMENT IN BUILDINGS, 2002 TO 2014 (Calendar Years): RAND MILLIONS (At Constant 2013 Prices). Basic data: SARB, Stats SA: LOWER MIDDLE ROAD SOYUZ SCENARIO: 2015-2020 (Constant 2014 Prices)

General government

Public corporations

Private business enterprises

TOTAL CONSTRUCTION

TOTAL BLDNG AND CONSTR

3 years (2015-2017)

5 years (2015-2020)

8 years (2015-2023)

SECTOR AND SEGMENT

PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL



Townhouses & Flats


Affordable Housing

General Government

PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL

Investment in Building

and Construction over

the next 3 years will be

some R1,4 Trillion . . .


© BMI-BRSCU

BMI

69 © BMI-BRSCU

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD MORTGAGE ADVANCES (DEC 2014), GFCF RES, NON-RES AND CONSTRUCTION (DEC 2014), BPP AND BC (MARCH

2015), CEMENT (DEC 2014) AND LUMBER SALES (APRIL 2015).

Year To Date 2015 (July 2015)

Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis

69

BMI



BUILDING RESEARCH

STRATEGY CONSULTING

UNIT cc

Reg. No. 2002/105109/23

•BMI



BUILDING RESEARCH

STRATEGY CONSULTING

UNIT cc

•BMI

•BMI

•BMI

•BMI



BUILDING RESEARCH

STRATEGY CONSULTING

UNIT cc

Reg. No. 2002/105109/23

•BMI



BUILDING RESEARCH

STRATEGY CONSULTING

UNIT cc

•BMI

•BMI

•BMI

•BMI

•BMI

•BMI

•

Our Vision

Building and construction is

an engine for growth and

wealth creation and property

is a preferred investment.

Our Mission

Developing competitive

Industry foresight and

strategic leadership as a

way of business life.

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM

A place of assembly for strategic conversations

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za

Documents

New BMI STRATEGY CONSULTING UNIT cc · 2019. 3. 5. · THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD MORTGAGE ADVANCES (DEC 2014), GFCF RES, NON-RES AND CONSTRUCTION (DEC 2014), BPP AND BC (MARCH 2015),