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NAWDEX DRY RUNMon 05 October 20151) Discussion of flight on 04 October2) Synoptic situation on 05 October3) Discussion of flights on 05 October4) Forecast for upcoming days
Discussion of flight on 04 October 2015 – 00 UTC
Geopotential at 300 hPa MSLP
WCB starting on 4 October, 00 UTCPV@320 K on 4 October, 00 UTC
Discussion of flight on 04 October 2015 – 00 UTC
MSLP
trajectories starting from flighttrack @ 950 hPa
trajectories starting from flighttrack @ 950 hPa
FC IT: 02-10-2015 FC IT: 04-10-2015
Geopotential at 300 hPa MSLP
SYNOPTIC SITUATION on 05 October 2015 – 00 UTC
Geopotential at 300 hPa MSLP
DISCUSSION OF 1st FLIGHT – 05 October
PV@320 K on 5 October, 00 UTC WCB starting on 4 October, 00 UTC
FC IT: 02-10-2015 FC IT: 02-10-2015
PV@320 K on 5 October, 00 UTC
FC IT: 05-10-2015 FC IT: 04-10-2015
WCB starting on 4 October, 00 UTC
DISCUSSION OF 1st FLIGHT – 05 October
PV@320 K on 5 October, 00 UTC WCB starting on 4 October, 00 UTC
FC IT: 05-10-2015 FC IT: 04-10-2015
trajectories starting from flighttrack @ 600 hPa
trajectories starting from flighttrack @ 500 hPa
FC IT: 05-10-2015 FC IT: 05-10-2015
DISCUSSION OF 2nd FLIGHT – 05 October
PV@320 K on 5 October, 12 UTC WCB starting on 4 October, 00 UTC
Forecast for upcoming days
Tuesday, 00 UTC
Forecast for upcoming days
Wednesday, 00 UTC
Forecast for upcoming days
Thursday, 00 UTC
Forecast for upcoming days
Thursday, 00 UTC
WCB inflow on Wednesday WCB outflow on Friday
Thursday 1 Oct web conf : discussion around the low near Ireland on Mon 5 Oct
SLP + 200-hPa wind speed
Arpege Météo-France forecastThur00+72H : Sun 00H UTC
Low
ECMWF and Arpege forecastsECMWF Thur00+48H : Sat00 ECMWF Thur00+72H : Sun00 ECMWF Thur00+96H : Mon00
Arpege Thur00+48H : Sat00 Arpege Thur00+72H : Sun00 Arpege Thur00+96H : Mon00
SLP + 850-hPa wind speed
SLP + 200-hPa wind speed
Ensemble forecasts : EPS SLP 990 Hpa isoline for different members
T+72H (Sat3 00UTC) T+96H (Mon4 00UTC)
Ensemble forecasts: comparison EPS ECMWF / MFSLP 990HPa isoline : same day : Sun4 +00UTC ECMWF : T+72H (51 runs) Météo-France : T+78H (35 runs)
Ensemble forecasts: comparison EPS ECMWF / MFSLP 990HPa isoline : same day : Mon5 +00UTC ECMWF : T+96H (51 runs) Météo-France : T+102H (35 runs)
Ensemble forecasts: comparison EPS ECMWF / MFSLP 990HPa isoline : same day : Mon5 +00UTC ECMWF : T+96H (51 runs) ECMWF : T+24H (351 runs)
Thurs Arpege Forecast T+60 UTC (saturday 12 UTC) Analysis Saturday 12 UTC
Theta anomalies on 1.5 PVU
More detailed features using Arpege forecasts : Relative Vorticity at 850 hPa and winds at 850hPa
Arpege Thur00+72H : Sun00 Arpege Thur00+96H : Mon00Arpege Thur00+72H : Sun00
More detailed features using Arpege forecasts : on Monday 00 UTC
Relative vorticity + winds 850hPa Cloud cover
From Sun 00UTC T+18H : looking at Sunday 018 UTC
Relative vorticity + winds 850hPa Cloud cover