Native and immigrant fertility patterns Native and immigrant fertility patterns in Greece: a comparative study based in Greece: a comparative study based on aggregated census statistics and on aggregated census statistics and IPUMS micro-dataIPUMS micro-data

Cleon TsimbosCleon Tsimbos11, Georgia Verropoulou, Georgia Verropoulou11 & Christos Bagavos & Christos Bagavos2 2

11University of Piraeus, Athens University of Piraeus, Athens 2 2 Panteion University of Athens Panteion University of Athens

Objectives of the studyObjectives of the study

1.1. To examine fertility patterns and differentials To examine fertility patterns and differentials between native and immigrant populations in between native and immigrant populations in Greece, with particular reference to Albanians Greece, with particular reference to Albanians and Bulgarians, based on the 2001 censusand Bulgarians, based on the 2001 census

2.2. To compare fertility and proportions of To compare fertility and proportions of childlessness by cohort between complete childlessness by cohort between complete census data and IPUMS micro-data (a 10% census data and IPUMS micro-data (a 10% sample)sample)

3.3. To explore factors associated with fertility To explore factors associated with fertility differentials applying multivariate techniques differentials applying multivariate techniques to IPUMS data sets to IPUMS data sets

Data: the 2001 Greek CensusData: the 2001 Greek Census

Data used in the analysis:Data used in the analysis:Special tabulations of census data, produced by the

National Statistical Service of GreeceNumbers of children ever born to women, by age and Numbers of children ever born to women, by age and

citizenship of mothercitizenship of motherYear of first and of second birthYear of first and of second birth

Focus on:Focus on: Fertility of women born 1950-1969 Fertility of women born 1950-1969 Three citizenships: Greeks, Albanian and Bulgarian Three citizenships: Greeks, Albanian and Bulgarian

(Albanian (Albanian 57.5%57.5% & Bulgarians & Bulgarians 4.6% of immigrants)4.6% of immigrants)

Data: the IPUMS micro-dataData: the IPUMS micro-data

A 10% sample of the censusA 10% sample of the census Systematic sample of householdsSystematic sample of households Smallest identifiable geographical unit: Smallest identifiable geographical unit:

municipalities with 20,000+ inhabitantsmunicipalities with 20,000+ inhabitants Includes all persons residing in private Includes all persons residing in private

householdshouseholds In total 1,028,884 person records and 367,438 In total 1,028,884 person records and 367,438

household recordshousehold records For the first time micro-data available for GreeceFor the first time micro-data available for Greece Became available only recentlyBecame available only recently

Figure 1.Figure 1. Mean number of children ever Mean number of children ever born in 2001 by citizenship: birth cohorts born in 2001 by citizenship: birth cohorts 1950-1969 (census data)1950-1969 (census data)

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970

Albania

Greece

Bulgaria

The figures are comparable only for women of The figures are comparable only for women of the same cohortthe same cohort

Women born in 1950-54 have completed their Women born in 1950-54 have completed their fertility as they would be at least age 45 in 2001. fertility as they would be at least age 45 in 2001. Also women born in 1955-59 would have nearly Also women born in 1955-59 would have nearly completed their reproductive lives by 2001completed their reproductive lives by 2001

Fertility is higher for Albanians for all cohorts Fertility is higher for Albanians for all cohorts and lowest for Bulgariansand lowest for Bulgarians

Marked decline in fertility of Albanians born Marked decline in fertility of Albanians born between 1950 and 1959 probably reflects a between 1950 and 1959 probably reflects a genuine trend genuine trend

Most of the observed fertility was realized in the Most of the observed fertility was realized in the country of origin as the vast majority of country of origin as the vast majority of immigrants arrived in Greece since 1991immigrants arrived in Greece since 1991

Figure 2.Figure 2. Cumulative cohort fertility for Cumulative cohort fertility for first births by cohort-group and first births by cohort-group and citizenship: birth cohorts 1950-69citizenship: birth cohorts 1950-69

1950-54 1955-59

1960-64 1965-69

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Albania

Greece

Bulgaria

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Albania

Greece

Bulgaria

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Albania

Greece

Bulgaria

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Albania

Greece

Bulgaria

•Albanian immigrants have the highest cumulative first-birth rates followed by native and Bulgarian women for all cohorts•Women born in the 1950s exhibit a fairly constant propensity to become mothers, irrespectively of citizenship •Levels for Bulgarian women born over the 1960s follow a marked declining trend •For all cohorts timing of first births for Bulgarian women is earlier than for other citizenships

Figure 3.Figure 3. Cohort fertility for second and third or Cohort fertility for second and third or higher order by citizenship: birth cohorts 1950-higher order by citizenship: birth cohorts 1950-19591959

2 children

3 or more children

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960

Albania

Greece

Bulgaria

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960

Albania

Greece

Bulgaria

•For all birth orders and cohorts, cumulative fertility is, as expected, highest for Albanians and lowest for Bulgarians.•The top figure (2nd birth order) shows virtually unchanged patterns for women born in the 1950s for all citizenships •The bottom figure (3rd and higher birth orders) shows a very marked decrease (from 0.82 to 0.37) for Albanian women•Only slight decreases for Greek and Bulgarian women

Table 1Table 1 Women by citizenship and year of birth Women by citizenship and year of birth based on the 2001 Census and IPUMS data: based on the 2001 Census and IPUMS data:

1950-1969 birth cohorts1950-1969 birth cohorts IPUMS data 2001 Census data Greece Albania Bulgaria Greece Albania Bulgaria a) Absolute numbers 1950-54 30,656 710 220 317,234 7,753 2,507 1955-59 32,553 1,101 220 336,405 11,846 2,710 1960-64 31,831 1,443 265 336,663 15,849 2,486 1965-69 33,027 1,702 233 352,211 18,342 2,678 1950-69 128,067 4,956 938 1,342,513 53,79 10,381 b) Percentages 1950-54 23.9 14.3 23.5 23.6 14.4 24.2 1955-59 25.4 22.2 23.5 25.1 22.0 26.1 1960-64 24.9 29.1 28.2 25.1 29.5 23.9 1965-69 25.8 34.4 24.8 26.2 34.1 25.8 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100

Source: 2001 population census and IPUMS data (https://international.ipums.org/international)

Comments on Table 1Comments on Table 1

IPUMS proposes the use of equal weights (=10) for all IPUMS proposes the use of equal weights (=10) for all Greek micro-data. Greek micro-data.

Taking this into account, the IPUMS weighted data would Taking this into account, the IPUMS weighted data would total 1,280,670 Greek, 49,560 Albanian and 9,380 total 1,280,670 Greek, 49,560 Albanian and 9,380 Bulgarian women. Bulgarian women.

Compared to the census enumeration, these figures show an Compared to the census enumeration, these figures show an undercount of 5%, 8% and 10% for the Greek, Albanian undercount of 5%, 8% and 10% for the Greek, Albanian and Bulgarian women, respectively. and Bulgarian women, respectively.

For the five-year cohort groups, the difference ranges from For the five-year cohort groups, the difference ranges from 3% to 6% for Greek women, from 7% to 9% for Albanians 3% to 6% for Greek women, from 7% to 9% for Albanians and from 6% to 19% for Bulgarians. and from 6% to 19% for Bulgarians.

In all cases, the IPUMS data tend to underestimate the In all cases, the IPUMS data tend to underestimate the census counts, apart from the 1960-64 cohort of Bulgarian census counts, apart from the 1960-64 cohort of Bulgarian women.women.

This might indicate a need for computing appropriate This might indicate a need for computing appropriate weights for the smaller population sub-groups.weights for the smaller population sub-groups.

Figure 4Figure 4 Cohort fertility by citizenship : Cohort fertility by citizenship : 1950-1969 birth cohort groups1950-1969 birth cohort groups

Figure 1. Cohort Fertility (2001Census vs IPUMS data), 1950-1969 cohort groups

1,931,88

1,76

1,40

1,95 1,92

1,78

1,43

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2

2,2

1950-54 1955-59 1960-64 1965-69

Greek - 2001 Census

Greek - IPUMS

2,45

2,22

1,96

1,66

2,52

2,24

1,93

1,64

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2

2,2

2,4

2,6

1950-54 1955-59 1960-64 1965-69

Albanian -2001 Census

Albanian - IPUMS

1,671,64

1,47

1,19

1,65

1,81

1,50

1,15

1

1,1

1,2

1,3

1,4

1,5

1,6

1,7

1,8

1,9

1950-54 1955-59 1960-64 1965-69

Bulgarian - 2001 Census

Bulgarian - IPUMS

Comments on Figure 4:Comments on Figure 4: The mean numbers of children ever born for all The mean numbers of children ever born for all

cohorts of Greek and Albanian women are fairly cohorts of Greek and Albanian women are fairly similar for both data sources, showing a similar for both data sources, showing a decreasing trend for successive cohortsdecreasing trend for successive cohorts

For Bulgarians there is a discrepancy for the For Bulgarians there is a discrepancy for the

1955-59 birth cohort of women1955-59 birth cohort of women!!!!

Figure 5Figure 5 Percentage childless by citizenship: Percentage childless by citizenship: 1950-1969 birth cohort groups1950-1969 birth cohort groups

Figure 2. Childlessness (%), (2001Census vs IPUMS data), 1950-1969 cohort groups

11,6% 12,3%

16,1%

28,0%

10,7% 11,2%

15,1%

26,6%

0

0,05

0,1

0,15

0,2

0,25

0,3

0,35

1950-54 1955-59 1960-64 1965-69

Greek - 2001 Census

Greek - IPUMS

6,8%7,8%

9,3%

12,5%

4,8%

12,1%

8,7%

7,1%

0

0,02

0,04

0,06

0,08

0,1

0,12

0,14

1950-54 1955-59 1960-64 1965-69

Albanian -2001 Census

Albanian - IPUMS

16,5%18,0%

24,2%

36,9%

32,9%

15,0% 14,1%

23,4%

0

0,05

0,1

0,15

0,2

0,25

0,3

0,35

0,4

1950-54 1955-59 1960-64 1965-69

Bulgarian - 2001 Census

Bulgarian - IPUMS

Comments on Figure 5:

•Proportions of childless women are lowest for Albanian women and highest for Bulgarian, for all cohorts, confirmed from both data sources

•An increasing tendency for women of all ethnicities to remain childless, between successive cohort-groups

•Again some discrepancies between census and IPUMS data, particularly for Bulgarian women born over 1955-59

•Overall, IPUMS data tend to underestimate proportions of childless women

Assessing associations based on IPUMS micro-Assessing associations based on IPUMS micro-data: Differentials by educational attainment data: Differentials by educational attainment for selected employment statusesfor selected employment statuses

Methods: Logistic regression models.Methods: Logistic regression models. – Model 1: having at least one child in comparison to being Model 1: having at least one child in comparison to being

childless childless

– Model 2: having at least two children in comparison to having Model 2: having at least two children in comparison to having only one only one

– Model 3: having at least three children in comparison to having Model 3: having at least three children in comparison to having only two only two

All models control for year of birth of women (age effects).All models control for year of birth of women (age effects). Independent variable: educational attainment, in three categories: Independent variable: educational attainment, in three categories:

– 0-6 years of schooling (at the most primary education)0-6 years of schooling (at the most primary education)

– 7-12 years (any secondary) 7-12 years (any secondary)

– 13 years or more (any post-secondary qualification)13 years or more (any post-secondary qualification)

Model 1: Odds Ratios showing associations of Model 1: Odds Ratios showing associations of educational attainment with having at least one educational attainment with having at least one child by employment status and citizenship child by employment status and citizenship (1950-69 cohorts)(1950-69 cohorts)

All women Currently employed Housewives Predictor Greece Albania Bulgaria Greece Albania Bulgaria Greece Albania Bulgaria Yrs in education 0-6 yrs (ref category) 7-12 yrs 0.758*** 1.484*** 1.341 0.437*** 1.369** 1.125 1.121*** 1.367 2.200* 13+ yrs 0.386*** 0.978 1.386 0.257*** 0.776 0.940 0.857*** 1.257 4.790** N 128067 4956 938 68354 2593 694 48309 2030 173 *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

Comments on Model 1:Comments on Model 1: For Greek women, overall: higher educational For Greek women, overall: higher educational

attainment seems to have a negative relationship with attainment seems to have a negative relationship with progression from childlessness to first birth.progression from childlessness to first birth.

The odds ratios indicate pronounced effects among The odds ratios indicate pronounced effects among currently employed women.currently employed women.

Among Greek housewives with 7-12 yrs of schooling, Among Greek housewives with 7-12 yrs of schooling, odds of progressing to a first birth seem more odds of progressing to a first birth seem more favourable than among their less educated favourable than among their less educated counterparts. counterparts.

For Albanian and Bulgarian women, overall, more For Albanian and Bulgarian women, overall, more years of education seem to increase chances of a first years of education seem to increase chances of a first birth.birth.

Associations are not significant for currently employed Associations are not significant for currently employed Bulgarian women; by contrast, they are very Bulgarian women; by contrast, they are very pronounced and significant among housewives.pronounced and significant among housewives.

Model 2: Odds Ratios showing associations of Model 2: Odds Ratios showing associations of educational attainment with having at least two educational attainment with having at least two children compared to mothers with one child, by children compared to mothers with one child, by employment status and citizenship (1950-69 employment status and citizenship (1950-69 cohorts)cohorts)

All women Currently employed Housewives Greece Albania Bulgaria Greece Albania Bulgaria Greece Albania Bulgaria Yrs in education 0-6 yrs (ref category) 7-12 yrs 0.546*** 0.712*** 0.448*** 0.452*** 0.544*** 0.441*** 0.653*** 0.877 0.594 13+ yrs 0.351*** 0.412*** 0.277*** 0.324*** 0.288*** 0.246*** 0.417*** 0.573*** 0.403 N 107581 4513 726 55533 2328 544 43996 1900 128 *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

Comments on Model 2:Comments on Model 2: Odds ratios indicate that for all women, Odds ratios indicate that for all women,

independently of citizenship, higher educational independently of citizenship, higher educational attainment is related to lower chances of having attainment is related to lower chances of having a second child, among mothers who already have a second child, among mothers who already have one. one.

This relationship seems to have the steepest This relationship seems to have the steepest gradient for Bulgarian women while for Greek gradient for Bulgarian women while for Greek women and, in particular for Albanians, it is women and, in particular for Albanians, it is somewhat flatter. somewhat flatter.

Though chances of progression to a second birth Though chances of progression to a second birth are lower for currently employed women for all are lower for currently employed women for all citizenships, differentiation compared to citizenships, differentiation compared to housewives is rather small housewives is rather small

Model 3: Odds Ratios showing associations of Model 3: Odds Ratios showing associations of educational attainment with having at least educational attainment with having at least three children compared to mothers with two three children compared to mothers with two children, by employment status and citizenship children, by employment status and citizenship (1950-69 cohorts)(1950-69 cohorts)

All women Currently employed Housewives Greece Albania Bulgaria Greece Albania Bulgaria Greece Albania Bulgaria Yrs in education 0-6 yrs (ref category) 7-12 yrs 0.488*** 0.473*** 0.448*** 0.475*** 0.548*** 0.422*** 0.507*** 0.465*** 0.336* 13+ yrs 0.356*** 0.272*** 0.170*** 0.346*** 0.353*** 0.134*** 0.440*** 0.209*** 0.106** N 86530 3703 529 43302 1895 410 37112 1572 84 *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

Comments on Model 3:Comments on Model 3: Higher educational attainment has a negative Higher educational attainment has a negative

association with chances of progression to a association with chances of progression to a third birth and births of higher order for all third birth and births of higher order for all women, independently of citizenship. women, independently of citizenship.

Differentiation between citizenships is minimal.Differentiation between citizenships is minimal. Similarly, differentiation between currently Similarly, differentiation between currently

employed women and housewives is limited. employed women and housewives is limited. In comparison to the odds ratios for Model 2, the In comparison to the odds ratios for Model 2, the

greatest difference can be observed for Albanian greatest difference can be observed for Albanian women women

Conclusions - DiscussionConclusions - Discussion Albanians have the highest fertility and constitute a large ethnic Albanians have the highest fertility and constitute a large ethnic

group. Hence, it is expected that their fertility may have a strong group. Hence, it is expected that their fertility may have a strong impact on period rates in Greece. However, as their fertility declines impact on period rates in Greece. However, as their fertility declines for successive cohorts, effects will decrease over timefor successive cohorts, effects will decrease over time

Educational attainment has differential associations with the decision Educational attainment has differential associations with the decision of native and immigrant women to become mothers of native and immigrant women to become mothers

For Greek women, more years in education reduce chances of For Greek women, more years in education reduce chances of progression to a first birth (the only exception being housewives with progression to a first birth (the only exception being housewives with secondary education) and, more substantially, chances of a second secondary education) and, more substantially, chances of a second birth and births of higher order birth and births of higher order

Higher educational attainment has also a negative association with Higher educational attainment has also a negative association with progression to second and higher birth orders for immigrant women progression to second and higher birth orders for immigrant women BUT seems positive for having a first birthBUT seems positive for having a first birth

It would be of interest to explore why associations differ between It would be of interest to explore why associations differ between ethnic groups!!ethnic groups!!

IPUMS micro-data are very useful for identifying and exploring such IPUMS micro-data are very useful for identifying and exploring such associationsassociations

Selected ReferencesSelected References

Verropoulou G, Bagavos C and C Tsimbos (Verropoulou G, Bagavos C and C Tsimbos (20072007) Migrant ) Migrant and Non-Migrant Fertility in Greece: Results Based on the and Non-Migrant Fertility in Greece: Results Based on the 2001 Population Census. 2001 Population Census. Migration LettersMigration Letters,, 4(2):4(2):147-158.147-158.

Bagavos C, Tsimbos C and G Verropoulou. (2008). Native Bagavos C, Tsimbos C and G Verropoulou. (2008). Native and Migrant Fertility Patterns in Greece: A Cohort and Migrant Fertility Patterns in Greece: A Cohort Approach. Approach. European Journal of PopulationEuropean Journal of Population, 24(4):245-263, 24(4):245-263

Tsimbos C, Verropoulou G and C Bagavos. (2008) Tsimbos C, Verropoulou G and C Bagavos. (2008) Native Native and Migrant Fertility Patterns in Greece: An Approach and Migrant Fertility Patterns in Greece: An Approach Based on IPUMS Microdata and Aggregated Census Data Based on IPUMS Microdata and Aggregated Census Data (1950-1969 cohorts)(1950-1969 cohorts). IPUMS Workshop: Panteion . IPUMS Workshop: Panteion University of Social and Political Sciences, Athens, March University of Social and Political Sciences, Athens, March 18, 20, (on line: http://www.hist.umn.edu/~rmccaa/ipums-18, 20, (on line: http://www.hist.umn.edu/~rmccaa/ipums-europe/)europe/)