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© Ipsos MORI | Final version |
Key Influencer Tracking | February 2017Key Influencer Tracking | February 2017
MPs Winter Survey 2016Key Influencer Tracking
February 2017
Report prepared for The UK in a Changing Europe and the Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
2
© Ipsos MORI | Final version |
Key Influencer Tracking | February 2017
Methodology
3 6
The referendum
12
The Brexit negotiations
Future prospects
22
© Ipsos MORI Final version | Internal Use Only
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Key Influencer Tracking | February 2017
Methodology
4
© Ipsos MORI | Final version |
Key Influencer Tracking | February 2017
Methodology
Sample
An initial sample of 440 MPs
were contacted and quotas on
ministerial status within party
were set to ensure those
interviewed closely represent the
profile of the House of Commons
This resulted in 149 interviews in
total. The questionnaire was
‘versioned’; 101 MPs answered
the Kings College London and
Queen Mary University
questions unless additional filters
were applied:
Fieldwork Dates
Fieldwork dates:
31 October – 21 December 2016
All data was collected through face
to face interviews with MPs at their
Westminster offices
Interpretation
Sometimes the percentage result
for ‘All MPs’ may be greater than
the sum of Labour and
Conservative MPs, as it includes
results from other parties. Where
results do not sum to 100%, this
may be due to computer
rounding, multiple responses, or
the exclusion of ‘don’t know’
categories.
Data have been weighted to
reflect the true balance by
political party
This report presents findings
from the winter 2016 wave of
Ipsos MORI’s Members of
Parliament survey, part of Ipsos
MORI’s programme of regular
multi-sponsored studies among
key audiences.
Source: Ipsos MORI
Base 101
48
43
7
Other 3
5
© Ipsos MORI | Final version |
Key Influencer Tracking | February 2017
52
52
48
36
36
42
9
9
7
3
3
3
Composition of Sample (%)
Base: All MPs (149), Conservative MPs (72), Labour MPs (62), SNP MPs (10), Other MPs (5), Winter 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI
Footnote: 1. Population of House of Commons excluding N.I. MPs and Speaker (631) as of 19th October 2016,
2. Data weighted by status (minister/backbencher) within party. All results in this report are weighted results
Other
Structure of the house1
Weighted sample 2
Unweighted sample
© Ipsos MORI Final version | Internal Use Only
6
Key Influencer Tracking | February 2017
The referendum
7
© Ipsos MORI | Final version |
Key Influencer Tracking | February 2017
Referendum vote
How did you vote in the EU referendum? (%)
Base: All MPs (101), Conservative MPs (48), Labour MPs (43) asked, Winter 2016
5049
2
6
91
2
28
70
2
Remain Leave Did not vote Prefer not to say
8
© Ipsos MORI | Final version |
Key Influencer Tracking | February 2017
4951
72
16
12
Impact of Cameron’s renegotiations
Did the outcome of David Cameron’s renegotiations of Britain’s terms of EU membership affect how you voted – and if so, in what
way? (%)
Base: All MPs (101), Conservative MPs (48), Labour MPs (43) asked, All MPs who voted to leave (31), All MPs who voted to remain (68) Winter 2016
50
28
22
96
4
82
1
17
No – it made no difference Yes – more favourable to Leave Yes – More favourable to Remain Don’t know
9
© Ipsos MORI | Final version |
Key Influencer Tracking | February 2017
MPs’ prediction of referendum vote
Thinking back to the day before the referendum, which of the following outcomes did you think was most likely? (%)
22
69
82
25
72
321
68
10 1
19
77
2319
68
13
Base: All MPs (101), Conservative MPs (48), Labour MPs (43) asked, All MPs who voted to leave (31), All MPs who voted to remain (68) Winter 2016
Britain to vote to Remain Britain to vote to Leave Too close to call Don’t know
10
© Ipsos MORI | Final version |
Key Influencer Tracking | February 2017
3
4849
More supportive Made no difference Less supportive Don't know
9
83
9
Support for referenda in politics
Has the experience of the EU referendum generally made you more or less supportive of the use of referenda in politics, or has it
made no difference? (%)
6
51
43
30
70
1
33
66
Base: All MPs (101), Conservative MPs (48), Labour MPs (43) asked, All MPs who voted to leave (31), All MPs who voted to remain (68) Winter 2016
11
© Ipsos MORI | Final version |
Key Influencer Tracking | February 2017
39
15
40
5
Referenda is the correct term Referendums is the correct term Both terms correct Don't know
Referenda or Referendum?
Out of interest, do you think it is correct to say referenda or referendums – or are both correct? (%)
Base: All MPs (101), Conservative MPs (48), Labour MPs (43) asked, Winter 2016
45
19
33
3
34
13
43
11
© Ipsos MORI Final version | Internal Use Only
12
Key Influencer Tracking | February 2017
The Brexit negotiations
13
© Ipsos MORI | Final version |
Key Influencer Tracking | February 2017
34
49
131
There is no need for a parliamentary vote nor a second referendum to approve the final deal struck with the EUParliament should have a final vote to approve or reject the final deal struck with the EU, but there should not be a second referendumThere should be a second referendum for the public to approve or reject the final deal struck with the EUOther (not prompted)Don't know
66
34
Article 50
After Article 50 has been triggered and a deal struck with the EU, which one of these statements do you most agree with? (%)
61
37
2 5
57
31
4 2
21
55
19
41
Base: All MPs (101), Conservative MPs (48), Labour MPs (43) asked, All MPs who voted to leave (31), All MPs who voted to remain (68) Winter 2016
14
© Ipsos MORI | Final version |
Key Influencer Tracking | February 2017
The negotiations – immigration
On a 0-10 scale, where 0 means being in the EU single market at all costs and 10 means being able to control immigration at all
costs, where do you think the balance should lie? (%)
Base: All MPs (101), Conservative MPs (48), Labour MPs (43), All MPs who voted to leave (31), All MPs who voted to remain (68) Winter 2016
33
10
51
47
26
30
24
11
31
38
55
22
83
19
4
6
2
6
3
Single market access more important (0-3) Neither more important (4-6) Controlling immigration more important (7-10) Don't know
15
© Ipsos MORI | Final version |
Key Influencer Tracking | February 2017
The negotiations – immigration
On a 0-10 scale, where 0 means being in the EU single market at all costs and 10 means being able to control immigration at all
costs, where do you think the balance should lie? (%)
Base: All MPs (101), Conservative MPs (48), Labour MPs (43), All MPs who voted to leave (31), All MPs who voted to remain (68) Winter 2016
11
10
6
15
8
13
12
4
12
6
9
20
14
6
9
2
3
6
13
9
18
9
15
7
11
4
11
6
11
2
11
5
4
5
4
9
1
5
3
7
6
5
22
36
9
57
8
4
6
2
6
3
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Don't know
16
© Ipsos MORI | Final version |
Key Influencer Tracking | February 2017
The negotiations – paying into the EU budget
On a 0-10 scale, where 0 means being in the EU single market at all costs and 10 means not paying any money at all into the EU
budget, where do you think the balance should lie? (%)
48
32
64
9
65
23
25
21
14
27
25
37
13
72
5
4
6
2
6
3
Single market access more important (0-3) Neither more important (4-6) Not paying in the EU more important (7-10) Don't know
Base: All MPs (101), Conservative MPs (48), Labour MPs (43), All MPs who voted to leave (31), All MPs who voted to remain (68) Winter 2016
17
© Ipsos MORI | Final version |
Key Influencer Tracking | February 2017
The negotiations – paying into the EU budget
On a 0-10 scale, where 0 means being in the EU single market at all costs and 10 means not paying any money at all into the EU
budget, where do you think the balance should lie? (%)
23
26
19
32
9
2
15
3
11
10
2
18
3
13
7
3
12
3
9
8
9
5
3
10
11
11
11
9
12
4
5
5
3
5
3
3
4
6
1
3
3
2
6
2
3
6
11
15
25
6
49
1
4
6
2
6
3
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Don't know
Base: All MPs (101), Conservative MPs (48), Labour MPs (43), All MPs who voted to leave (31), All MPs who voted to remain (68) Winter 2016
18
© Ipsos MORI | Final version |
Key Influencer Tracking | February 2017
Soft Brexit or Hard Brexit?
On a 0-10 scale, where 0 means being in the EU single market at all costs and 10 means being able to control immigration at all
costs / not paying any money at all into the EU budget, where do you think the balance should lie (combined)? (%)
Base: All MPs (101) Winter 2016
30
3
9
18
2
9
6
23
Retain access to single market Control immigration
Reta
in a
ccess to
sin
gle
mark
et
Pay
no m
oney
into
EU
budget
All MPs
19
© Ipsos MORI | Final version |
Key Influencer Tracking | February 2017
Soft Brexit or Hard Brexit?
On a 0-10 scale, where 0 means being in the EU single market at all costs and 10 means being able to control immigration at all
costs / not paying any money at all into the EU budget, where do you think the balance should lie (combined)? (%)
Base: All Conservative MPs (44), Labour MPs (42) asked, Winter 2016
10 11
21
3
11
9
34
Control
immigration
Pay
no m
oney
into
EU
budget
46
5
9
16
7
10
2
11
Retain access to
single market
Control
immigration
Retain access to
single market
Reta
in a
ccess to
sin
gle
mark
et
20
© Ipsos MORI | Final version |
Key Influencer Tracking | February 2017
Soft Brexit or Hard Brexit?
On a 0-10 scale, where 0 means being in the EU single market at all costs and 10 means being able to control immigration at all
costs / not paying any money at all into the EU budget, where do you think the balance should lie (combined)? (%)
Base: All All MPs who voted to leave (29), All MPs who voted to remain (65) Winter 2016
3
14
6
6
72
Control
immigration
Pay
no m
oney
into
EU
budget
43
4
12
20
2
11
6
2
Control
immigration
Retain access to
single market
Retain access to
single market
Reta
in a
ccess to
sin
gle
mark
et
21
© Ipsos MORI | Final version |
Key Influencer Tracking | February 2017
What does honouring the referendum result mean?
If each of the following were still the case, would you say that made it impossible to consider that Britain had really left the EU and
honoured the referendum result, or not?
% Impossible to consider Britain
had really left the EU
44 10 63 12
10 - - 7
71 57 82 49
52 20 63 2335
58
5
26
The UK still paid in to the EU budget
New foreign nationals from other EUcountries had the automatic right to live and
work in the UK
Existing foreign nationals from other EUcountries currently living and working in the
UK were allowed to stay
The UK was still in the EU single market
Base: All MPs (101), Conservative MPs (48), Labour MPs (43), All MPs who voted to leave (31), All MPs who voted to remain (68) Winter 2016
% Impossible to consider Britain had really left the EU
© Ipsos MORI Final version | Internal Use Only
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Key Influencer Tracking | February 2017
Future prospects
23
© Ipsos MORI | Final version |
Key Influencer Tracking | February 2017
22
33
44
1
Improve Stay the same Get worse Don't know
Prospects for economy in the next 12 months
Do you think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse in the next 12 months? (%)
5542
3
39
47
122 4
19
77
8
28
62
1
Base: All MPs (101), Conservative MPs (48), Labour MPs (43), All MPs who voted to leave (31), All MPs who voted to remain (68) Winter 2016
24
© Ipsos MORI | Final version |
Key Influencer Tracking | February 2017
22
44
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
% Improve % Get Worse
Prospects for economy in the next 12 months – trendsDo you think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse in the next 12 months? (%)
General Election General Election General ElectionGeneral Election General Election
Base: All MPs asked (101), Conservative MPs (48), Labour MPs (43) asked, Winter 2016
25
© Ipsos MORI | Final version |
Key Influencer Tracking | February 2017
54
11
29
6
Improve Stay the same Get worse Don't know
Prospects for economy in the next 10 years
And over the next ten years, do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get
worse? (%)
97
3
89
53 3
20
11
59
11
36
15
41
8
Base: All MPs (101), Conservative MPs (48), Labour MPs (43), All MPs who voted to leave (31), All MPs who voted to remain (68) Winter 2016
26
© Ipsos MORI | Final version |
Key Influencer Tracking | February 2017
6
5032
103
Very likely Fairly likely Fairly unlikely Very unlikely Don't know
Will the EU thrive?
How likely or unlikely do you think it is that the EU will thrive in the future, now that the UK has voted to leave? (%)
6
23
37
28
6
5
33
42
17
3 6
64
23
2 4
6
60
30
12
Base: All MPs (101), Conservative MPs (48), Labour MPs (43), All MPs who voted to leave (31), All MPs who voted to remain (68) Winter 2016
27
© Ipsos MORI | Final version |
Key Influencer Tracking | February 2017
23
23
9
13
32
Very optimistic Fairly optimistic Neither optimistic nor pessimistic Fairly pessimistic Very pessimistic Don't know
Trade deals
To what extent are you optimistic or pessimistic that the UK will be able to quickly sign beneficial trade deals with major powers,
such as China? (%)
74
26
40
38
8
3
11 69
10
22
53
2
22
11
19
45
Base: All MPs (101), Conservative MPs (48), Labour MPs (43), All MPs who voted to leave (31), All MPs who voted to remain (68) Winter 2016
28
© Ipsos MORI | Final version |
Key Influencer Tracking | February 2017
31
15
50
4
Yes - will be better than the EU Yes - will be similar No - will not compensate Don't know
Will trade deals compensate for loss of trade with the EU?
To what extent, if at all, do you think such deals will compensate for any loss of trade with the EU? (%)
Base: All MPs (101), Conservative MPs (48), Labour MPs (43), MPs optimistic the UK will be able to quickly sign beneficial trade deals with major powers (45), MPs pessimistic the UK will be able to quickly sign beneficial trade
deals with major powers (46) Winter 2016
55
22
20
3 610
79
5
Yes – will be better than
the EU
Yes – will be similar No – will not
compensate
MPs optimistic that the UK will be able to quickly sign
beneficial trade deals with major powers67% 21% 9%
MPs pessimistic that the UK will be able to quickly sign
beneficial trade deals with major powers- - 94%
© Ipsos MORI | Final version | Internal Use Only
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Key Influencer Tracking | February 2017
FURTHER INFORMATION
For more information please contact:
Ben Miller
King’s College London
London
WC2R 2LS
t: +44 (0)20 78487174
www.ukandeu.ac.uk/
About Ipsos MORI Reputation CentreThe Ipsos MORI Reputation Centre was established with a simple aim:
to help companies build more resilient reputations through stronger
relationships with the people who matter most to them. Our approach is
based on the understanding that research needs to be a catalyst for
positive change – providing clear and practical advice that feeds
directly into the stakeholder communications process.
The Key Influencer Tracking programme is a suite of multi-client
studies that examine the attitudes and opinions of a range of elite,
opinion forming stakeholder audiences. The first of these surveys was
set up nearly 40 years ago and the programme has gone from strength
to strength ever since. Further details can be found at;
www.ipsos-mori.com/kit
This work was carried out in accordance with the requirements of the international quality standard for market research, ISO 20252:2006 and with the Ipsos MORI Terms and Conditions which can be found here
Becky Writer-Davies
3 Thomas More Square
London
E1W 1YW
t: +44 (0)20 7347 3344
www.ipsos-mori.com/
Guto Malgwyn Hunkin
3 Thomas More Square
London
E1W 1YW
t: +44 (0)20 7347 3339
www.ipsos-mori.com/