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Modeling the Effects of Invasive Species on the International Trade of Forest Products. Joseph Buongiorno, Shushuai Zu, Ruhong Li U.W. Madison James Turner Forest Research, Rotorua, NZ Jeff Prestemon USDA-FS, SO. Background. U.S. forests at risk Chestnut blight, early 1900s - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Modeling the Effects of Invasive Species on the International
Trade of Forest Products
Joseph Buongiorno, Shushuai Zu, Ruhong Li
U.W. Madison
James Turner
Forest Research, Rotorua, NZ
Jeff Prestemon
USDA-FS, SO
Background• U.S. forests at risk
– Chestnut blight, early 1900s– Dutch Elm Disease, mid-1900s– Balsam and Hemlock Woolly Adelgids– Sudden Oak Death– Gypsy Moth– Spruce budworm– Oak wilt
• U.S. is largest producer, consumer, importer• Globalization
– GATT-WTO– NAFTA– FTAA
• Growing trade => growing threat• Other countries face same issues
Objectives
• Losses incurred by producers and consumers due to timber supply reductions caused by invasive species
• Effects of regulations (phytosanitary rules and import bans) on producer and consumer welfare
Global Forest Products Model
Dynamic Competitive equilibrium
Demand Supply Trade
14 forest products
180 countries
GFPM Product FlowRaw material Intermediate product Final product
Fuelwood
Industrial roundwood
Other roundwood
Other fiber pulp
Waste paper
Fuelwood
Other industrial roundwood
Sawnwood
Plywood
Particleboard
Fiberboard
Newsprint
Printing & writing paper
Other paper & paperboard
Mechanical pulp
Chemical pulp
π T
T
T +1
Q T
P T
P T+ 1
Q T +1
GFPM dynamics
Alternative Scenarios
Status quo projections, 2002 – 2012
Ban on global trade of logs
Status quo:World plywood consumption
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Year
Thou
sand
cub
ic m
eter
s
Africa North/Central America South America Asia Oceania Europe
Status quo: Net Trade of Industrial Roundwood
-120000
-90000
-60000
-30000
0
30000
60000
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Year
Thou
sand
cub
ic m
eter
s
Africa North/Central America South America Asia Oceania Europe
Status quo: U.S.ANewsprint
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Year
mil
lio
n t Production
ImportExportConsumption
Status quo: World Prices
Price of Paper and Paperboard
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Year
1997
US
$ pe
r met
ric to
n
Newsprint Printing & writing paper Other paper & paperboard
Effects on industrial roundwood
Cons Prod Import Export
United States 3% -1% -100% -100%
Brazil 2% -1% -100% -100%
China -17% 48% -100% -100%
Indonesia 3% 2% -100% -100%
Japan -43% 18% -100% -100%
Malaysia 9% -3% -100% -100%
EU-15 -5% 7% -100% -100%
Russian Fed 7% -35% -100% -100%
World -2% -2% -100% -100%
Effects on Sawn woodCons Prod Imp Exp
United States -1% 4% 0% 172%
Brazil -2% 0% 0% 14%
China -9% -65% 20% -33%
Indonesia -1% 4% 0% 15%
Japan -7% -61% 82% 0%
Malaysia -4% 5% 0% 12%
EU-15 -2% -5% 7% -1%
Russian Fed -1% 7% 0% 14%
World -2% -2% 11% 10%
Effects on Wood Panels
Cons Prod Import Export
United States -2% 2% -4% 73%
Brazil -2% 4% -8% 14%
China -12% -21% 7% -19%
Indonesia -1% 5% 0% 11%
Japan -7% -77% 54% -1%
Malaysia -6% 12% 39% 18%
EU-15 -7% -8% 7% 1%
Russian Fed 0% 20% -17% 66%
World -5% -5% 8% 8%
Effects on Wood PulpCons Prod Import Export
United States 1% 3% 0% 18%
Brazil 3% 3% 0% 4%
China 6% 1% 6% 0%
Indonesia -1% 0% 0% 1%
Japan -2% -11% 43% -30%
Malaysia 11% 19% 0% ----
EU-15 -4% -3% 1% 3%
Russian Fed 0% 1% 0% 3%
World 0% 0% 4% 4%
Effects on Paper and Paperboard
Cons Prod Import Export
United States 0% 1% -4% 3%
Brazil 2% 3% -2% 9%
China 0% 5% -12% 10%
Indonesia -1% -1% -6% -2%
Japnan -1% -2% 25% -24%
Malaysia 0% 7% -2% 42%
EU-15 0% -3% 1% -4%
Russian Fed -1% 0% 0% 3%
World 0% 0% -2% -2%
Effects on prices
World U.S.A
Industrial Roundwood 4% -3%
Sawnwood 7% 5%
Panels 17% 6%
Pulp 8% 23%
Paper and paperboard 2% 2%
Future Work
• Finish log export ban scenario analysis
• Study effects of treatment costs on trade, production, and prices
• Develop timber supply sub-model to simulate effects of invasive species