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Mobilizing Citizen Engineering to impact Complex Systems at EWB2013 Canada
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Mobilizing Citizen
Engineers to Impact Complex
SystemsRyan Martens – Rally Software
2013 ConferenceCalgary
19852002200920112012
Finding: My Good Work
Factor of Four
Technology and Entrepreneurship for the Developing World –
EN4830
Seth Murray – MEInstructor at the
University of Colorado
Learning Objectives:
1. Understand importance, feasibility and complexity of facilitating wealth generation for the developing world
2. Learn how engineering and entrepreneurship influence development and appropriate technologies
3. Enhance your team work skills by presenting 3 times during the semester on your business model and plan
Need Citizen Engineers to deliver impact in complex world
04/10/2023 11
National Snow and Ice Data Center – University of Colorado, Boulderhttp://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaiceminimum/20070810_index.html
20052007
Frame & Empathize
Build & Ship
Test & Measure
Learn & Share
Act like an Agilist
04/10/2023 17
2.0 Sustainable
3.0Restorative
1.0 Take – Make - Waste
ResourceWaste
Open Loop,World of Constraints
Closed Loop
Generative,World of Plenty
2.0 Social Enterprise
3.0Natural
Capitalism
1.0 Externalities & Aid
ResourceWaste
Open Loop,World of Constraints
Closed Loop
Generative,World of Plenty
http://www.flickr.com/photos/virtualeyesee/6107062655
1. Understand the context
2. Learn in fast cycles
3. Do it to yourselves?
Engineer with Complexity
What we are taught
Problem Space Defined
Water Problem
Solution SpaceOption Feasible Effective123
Systems Engineering
What we assume
Gaussiandistributions
http://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0412004
Gaussiandistributions
http://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0412004 http://www.flickr.com/photos/danielmorrison/428130095
What surprises us
Probabilities
80 / 20
Power laws and Pareto distributions
http://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0412004
Other Pareto distributions
http://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0412004
Low probability events have higher
impact
Plausible
An example
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/howaboutthat/6988398/The-worlds-tallest-man-Sultan-Kosen-and-the-shortest-man-in-the-world-He-Pingping-meet.html
8’1’’2’5’’
3.3 x
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jurvetson/4368494308
Bill Gates
TheEntireRoom
650 x
99.8 / 1
Citizen Engineering involves many
Pareto distributions
How do we make sense of this?
ProbablePlausible
OrderedUnordered
ProbablePlausible
OrderedUnordered
ProbablePlausible
OrderedUnordered
ProbablePlausible
OrderedUnordered
Explore
Execute
ProbablePlausible
OrderedUnordered
Natural/Social
Systems
MechanicalSystems
A little more to this at scale
OrderedUnordered
ProbablePlausible
Chaotic SimpleComplicatedComplex
OrderedUnordered
ProbablePlausible
Chaotic Simple
ComplicatedComplex
OrderedUnordered
ProbablePlausible
Chaotic Simple
ComplicatedComplex
ProbablePlausible
OrderedUnordered
Chaotic Simple
ComplicatedComplex
Cause & Effect is only apparent in retrospect, and not repeatable
Cause & Effect is not obvious, understood through analysis and
is repeatable
Cause & Effect is not perceivable
Cause & Effect is obvious to all and is
repeatable
Disorder
OrderedUnordered
The Cynefin Framework
How about an example?
Chaotic Simple
ComplicatedComplex
Independent musicians self publishing online
Managing a large tour
Major label online distribution CD distribution
Disorder
OrderedUnordered
Music Industry in 2000 - Napster
Managing a NIN tour
Taking action
Chaotic Simple
ComplicatedComplex
Disorder
Existing Solution & Community
Chaotic Simple
ComplicatedComplex
Disorder
New Solution or Community
Uncertaintymakes it difficult to “Heads-Down”
Engineer
How do we act?
See Cynefin online at Cognitive Edge - http://cognitive-edge.com/
How do we deal with this?
Complexity Informed Approach
Problem Space Un-Defined
SolutionSpace
Sustainability
Capacity
Health/Water
Act like an Agilist
(aka - Disciplined Explorer and
Executer)
Our Approach
Assemble these ingredients:
Customer Development
Agile Execution
Design Thinking
LeanThinking
Complexity
Innovation Management
Agile
NOT Agile
Approach
71
Incremental Delivery of Customer ValueProductBacklog
ReleaseBacklog
Iterations1-4 Weeks
DailyMeetings
ProductIncrement
Releases1-4 Months
Agile Method
© 2009 Product Development Flow –Don Reinertsen – fig 4-10
ProductDevelopPayoff
Loss
Gain
Target
ManufacturePayoff
Loss
Gain
Target
Optimization
Utilization Conform to PlanVariability Phases & Gates
Fixed ScopeVariable Resources
Variable Time
Plan DrivenVariable ScopeFixed Resources
Fixed Time
Value Driven
DEVELOPMENTTRADITIONAL
DEVELOPMENTAGILE
Time ScopeResources
TimeScope Resources
Plan Driven
Value Driven
Fixed
Variable
Plan Driven
Value Driven
Fixed
Variable
Quality Value
Constraints
Cycle Time Lifecycle Profit Innovation Speed
Results from a Fortune 100
• 3X better throughput
• went from 40% on-time to 92% on time
• projects delivered under budget
• multiple first-to-market initiatives
• reduced bug backlog by almost 90%
• removed 180,000 hours of productive waste in one quarter
Agile = Build it Right
Agile = Mindset Change
Customer Development(FROM LEAN
STARTUP)
Alpha Beta Ship Oh Crap!
Customer Development = Build the Right
Thing
Innovation Management Approach
Frame
Test & Measure
Build & Ship
Lear
n
Vision & Empathy
Frame
Test & Measure
Build & Ship
Lear
n
Business Model
Frame
Test & Measure
Build & Ship
Lear
n
Frame
Test & Measure
Build & Ship
Lear
n
Culture
Artful Making
Lee Devin and Rob Austin
http://www.slideshare.net/sblank/the-startup-owners-manual-sxsw-11954724
Explore Execute
http://www.slideshare.net/sblank/the-startup-owners-manual-sxsw-11954724
http://www.slideshare.net/sblank/the-startup-owners-manual-sxsw-11954724
http://www.slideshare.net/sblank/the-startup-owners-manual-sxsw-11954724http://www.slideshare.net/sblank/the-startup-owners-manual-sxsw-11954724
Design Thinking
Design Thinking = Frame the
Right Problem
?
Exploring with Discipline
Turn GuessesFrame
Test & Measure
Bu
ild &
Sh
ip
Learn
Into Knowledge
The only valid model of a complex system is the system itself.
“
Murray Gell-Mann
First big Guess:
We understand the problem a
customerwants solved
Customers don’t care about your solution. They care about their problems.
“
Dave McClure
Next guess:
Our product solves the customer’s
problem
Testing your low fidelity MVP
How about an example?
http://www.slideshare.net/sblank/the-startup-owners-manual-sxsw-11954724
PIVOT or PERSEVERE
Frame & Empathize
Build & Ship
Test & Measure
Learn & Share
Act like an Agilist
Our Tools
Empathy Map
Innovation Portfolio
Needs Definition
Problem Validation
Lean Canvas
Experiment Design
Experiment Tracking
Create Citizen Engineers
Responsible Engineering
• Technically• Environmentally• Socially
How about an example?
Trisha CompassDay 1 Response
Mouhsine Serrar Prakti Design
Feasible
Effective
Desirable
Sustain-able
The Pill to Create Citizen Engineers
Need to be a disciplined &
ethical explorer
Need ability to apply
appropriate technologies
Supplements to create Citizen Engineers
EngineersSocial
Entrepreneurs
http://www.flickr.com/photos/stevendepolo/7315274972/sizes/m/in/photostream/
ProbablePlausible
OrderedUnordered
Natural/Social
Systems
MechanicalSystems
Probe Sense Respond
Chaotic Simple
ComplicatedComplex
Disorder
An Agile EWB Process?
• Guess• Guess
Problem
• Validated Knowledge
• MVP
Solution• Delivery
Execution
PIVOT ?
An Agile EWB Project?Problem & Solution
Validation
I-2 I-3On-SiteI-1
Solution Prototype, Installation &
Tailoring
I-2On-SiteI-1
On-Site
Discover Problem Space
Sustainability
Capacity/Education
Water/Health
What Solution Space?
Create Citizen Engineers in Country
“Design With” as a Citizen Engineer
Successful Projects in Country
1. Find Empathy
2. Run Fast Cycles
3. Probe to turn Guesses
into Knowledge
4. Capture Micro-
Narratives & reflect
Visit: Rally for Impact
Share: Your Experience
“Do what you love in service to those who love what you do”
– Steve Farber – Extreme Management
Primary books that informed this talk
DaveDouglas
David Snowden Kembel Brothers
LeeDevin
BernardAmadei
DonReinertsen
SteveBlank
EricRies
People who informed this talk
@RallyOn#RallyforImpact
