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11
MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
P O L A N D
Poland prospects for Poland prospects for development – contribution of development – contribution of
structural fundsstructural funds
Jerzy KwiecińskiJerzy KwiecińskiUndersecretary of StateUndersecretary of State
Warsaw, May 29, 2007Warsaw, May 29, 2007
22
MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Poland Poland – assets and weaknesses– assets and weaknesses
InnovativenessLabor market
Unemployment rate is systematically falling.Unemployment rate is systematically falling.In February it stood at 14.4%.In February it stood at 14.4%.
Economy needs both: growth in B&R Economy needs both: growth in B&R expednitures and strengthening of expednitures and strengthening of
cooperation between science and industrycooperation between science and industry
33
MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Poland Poland – assets and weaknesses– assets and weaknesses
Economic development
Environment and natural resources
2.63.8
5.2
7.06.2
7.1
5.04.5 4.2
1.1 1.4
3.8
5.3
3.5
5.8
-7.5-7.0-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
GDP growth rate (in %)
44
MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Poland Poland – assets and weaknesses– assets and weaknesses
Human capital andentreprenurship
Investment attractiveness
Almost half of the population is below Almost half of the population is below 35 years old35 years old
According to the A.T. Kearney Agency According to the A.T. Kearney Agency Poland ranks among of the 5 best Poland ranks among of the 5 best
world investment locationsworld investment locations
55
MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
POLAND POLAND IN THE EUROPEAN UNIONIN THE EUROPEAN UNION
Population(2005)
GDP Volume (2006)
at market prices
GDP per capita
in 2005 at PPS
millions
%billions of euro
% euro %
EU-27 491.9
100 10953.6
100.0 22500 100.0
EU-25 462.5
94.0 10852.8
99.1 23500 104.4
EU-15 388.4
79.0 10292.1
94.0 25400 112.9
EU-10 74.1 15.4 560.7 5.1 . .
EU-12 103.4
21.0 662.0 6.0 . .
Poland 38.2 7.8 243.7 2.2 11700 52.0Poland – 7.8% of the EU – 27 population; sixth country in terms of population
66
MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Rate of GDP growth in theRate of GDP growth in the selectedselected
EU countries in the period 200EU countries in the period 20033--20020066
Country 2003 2004 2005 2006
EU-27 1.3 2.4 1.7 2.9
EU-25 1.3 2.4 1.7 2.9
EU -15 1.1 2.3 1.5 2.7
Italy 0.0 1.2 0.1 1.9
France 1.1 2.3 1.2 2.2 (f)
Germany -0.2 1.2 0.9 2.7
Great Britain
2.7 3.3 1.9 2.7
Spain 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.9
Poland 3.8 5.3 3.5 5.8
Source: Eurostat. Database – General Economic Background/Real GDP growth rate
77
MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Gross Domestic ProductGross Domestic Product1989=1001989=100
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Czech RepublicSlovakiaHungarySlovenia
Estonia
Poland
Latvia
Lithuania
88
MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Regional Development and Regional Development and Raising Raising
of Territorial Cohesionof Territorial CohesionGDP
Per capita in Voivodships (at purchasing power parity)
2004EU-27 = 100
Poland on average 50.7
Source: Eurostat. 2007
Below 40,040,0 - 50,050,1 - 75,0
Above 75,0
46.7
76.8
45.4
43.4
57.1
35.2
35.4
39.3
37.9
47.2
45.4
51.7
43.6
39.4
49.6
LU BUSKI E
W I ELKOPOLSKI E
KUJ AW SKO-POM OR SKI E
DOLNO ŚLĄSKI E
OPOLSKI E
ŚLĄSKI EM AŁOPOLSKI E
LU BELSKI E
M AZO W I ECKI E
PO DLASKI E
PO DKAR PACKI E
W AR M I ŃSKO -M AZU R SKI EPO M OR SKI E
ŁÓDZKI E
ZACHO DNI O PO MO R SKI E
99
MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
LONG - TERM EFFECTS LONG - TERM EFFECTS OF EU MEMBERSHIP FOR OF EU MEMBERSHIP FOR
POLANDPOLAND
Improved position of
Poland on the global scene
(political and financial
credibility)
Accelerationand
strengthening of the reform
process
Influence of the Single
European Market
on the economy
(GDP growth, productivity)
Impact of the EU
funds
Improved national security and higher level and quality of life
1010
MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IMMEDIATE EFFECTS IMMEDIATE EFFECTS OF EU MEMBERSHIP FOR OF EU MEMBERSHIP FOR
POLANDPOLAND
Growth in exports
of foodstuffs and
agricultural products
Reduction of duties on
35% of the volume
of imports
Changes in the level
of prices (in both
directions)
Improved consumer protection standards
Widening of educationalopportunities
Poland’s eastern border became the EU
external frontier
Gradual opening of the EU
labor market
Participation in the EU decision-making process
1111
MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
National Development
Strategy
Voivodship’sdevelopment
strategies
RegionalOperationalProgrammes
International treaties and agreements.
other financial and legalinstruments
OperationalProgrammes
NSRF (executive plan)
National Operational Programmes and
RegionalOperational Programmes
sectoralstrategies
Local development
strategies
Executiveplans
Executive plans
Executiveplans
Other financial & legal instruments
Strategic Programming System Strategic Programming System in Polandin Poland
1212
MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Poland as the beneficiary Poland as the beneficiary of the EU Cohesion Policyof the EU Cohesion Policy
Poland19.3%
EU80.7%
2007-2013
For the 2004-2006 financial perspective Poland is receiving within the framework of structural assistance 12. 8 billions Euro (6% of the total EU assistance in that period).
In the period 2007-2013 Poland will have at its disposal 67.3 billion Euro for the cohesion policy, that is almost 1/5 of the total EU cohesion policy financing.
Financing of other fields will exceed 18 billion Euro. Co-financing is estimated at over 22 billion Euro. Altogether, the above-mentioned funds will reach about 108 billion Euro.
1313
MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
National Development Strategy 2007-2015 (NDS) - principal strategic document which delineates objectives
and priorities of the development policy in the period 2007-2015
Main goal of the NDS
Country’s Development Directions Country’s Development Directions 2007 - 20152007 - 2015
Raise the level and the quality of life of Poland’s residents: individual citizens and families
Priorities:Priorities:1. 1. Growth of competitiveness and innovativeness of
the economy
2. Improvement of the condition of the technical and social infrastructure
3. Growth of employment and raising of its quality
4. Building an integrated social community and its safety
5. Development of rural areas
6. Regional development and improvement of the territorial cohesion
1414
MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Distribution of the UE resources among operational programmes NSRF/NCS 2007-2013 (in Euro)
NSRF = 67.3 mld EUR,Including national reserve For implementation (2% of the value of allocation)
OP European Territorial Cooperation
1,1%
Pervormance Reserve2,0%
OP Human Capital 14,4%
OP Techical Assistance 0,8%
OP Innovative Economy 12,3%
OP Infrastructure and Development
41,5%
OP Development of Eastern Poland 3,4%
16 Regional Operational Programmes
24,6%
1515
MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Programming instruments
Financing of transport Financing of transport investmentsinvestments
EU resourcesEU resources
Continuation of expenditures 2004 - 2006• Cohesion Fund 1.7 billion euro• European Regional Development Fund1,2 billion euro
New Financial Perspective 2007 - 2013
• OP Infrastructure and Environment20 billion euro
• Regional Operational Programmes 4.2 billion euro
• OP Development of Eastern Poland 1.1 billion euro
2288..22 billion euro from the EU billion euro from the EU for expenditures on the transport for expenditures on the transport
sector sector until until 20120133
1616
MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Regional Operational Programmes
Priorities
VI
Toursim
4.8%
VIII
Renewal of rural and
urban areas
5.6%
VIII
Social infrastructure
10.4%
IX
Reform of
Employment
0.1%
X
Administrative
capacties
0.2%
XI
Technical assistance
2.9%
VII
Culture
3.9%
V
Environmental
protection,
counteracting threats
10.8%
IV
Energy
2.6%
II
Information Society
7.9%
I
Research, technological
development,
innovativeness,
entrepreneurship
24.7%
III
Transport
26,1%
1717
MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
million euro
Priorities of % share OP DEP
Public funds (85%
EU+15%domestic)
Community Financing
Domestic public
financing
ERDF85%
Total15%
1=2+3 2 3
I Modern Economy 47.1%
1259.03 1070.18 188.85
II. Voivodship growth canters 19.6 %
524.35 445.70 78.65
III. Transport infrastructure 30.3% 811.41 689.70 121.71
IV. Technical Assistance 3%
80.25 68.21 12.04
Total 2007-2013 100%
2 675.05 2 273.79 401.26
Operational Program Development of Eastern PolandOperational Program Development of Eastern PolandPriorPrioriitiesties
1818
MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Operational Program Human Capital Priorities
Priority(EUR) %
I. Employment and social inclusion506 189
3584.43%
II.Development of human capital and of enterprises’ adaptative potential
672 298 727
5.89%
III. High quality of the educational system1 456 236
26812.75%
IV. Higher education and science960 366
8398.41%
V. Good governance610 854
0945.35%
VI.Precaution. promotion and improvement of the health of productive age
105 713 179
0.92%
VII.Labour market open to everyone and promotion of social inclusion
3 699 705 119
32.40%
VIII.
Regional human resources of the economy1 588 479
61213.91%
IX.Development of education and competences in regions
1 103 425 446
9.66%
X. Partnership for rural areas’ development260 130
1352.28%
XI. Technical Assistance456 808
2824.00%
TOTAL:11 420
207 059100%
13% of funds for development of human capital
1919
MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT OP Human Capital
Financial allocation within OP Human Capital
Health 0,92%
Labour market open to everyone and
promotion of social inclusion32,40%
Good governence 5,35%
Higher education and science
8,41%
High quality of the educationl system
12,75%
Adaptability 5,89%
Employment and social inclusion
4,43%
Technical Assistance 4%
Rural areas 2,28%
Education - regional 9,66%
Regional human resources of the
economy 13,91%
2020
MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Impact of the NSRF on the rate of Impact of the NSRF on the rate of growthgrowth
0.000.21
0.81
2.90
1.91 1.83
2.39
-1.15-0.97
-2.85
-0.82-0.63
-0.43 -0.36
1.59
0.00 0.15 0.05 0.21 0.54 0.98 1.01 1.19
1.42
0.86
0.50-0.10 -0.13 -0.15 -1.07
-4.00
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
HERMIN (WARR)
MaMoR2 (IBnGR)
Difference between GDP rates of growth in the NSRF scenario
and base scenario (without NSRF) expressed in percentage points
2121
MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Impact of the NSRF on Impact of the NSRF on unemployment rateunemployment rate
-0.13
-0.61
-3.01
-3.69
-4.46
-5.56
-4.44
-3.67
-1.85-1.48
-1.20 -1.02 -0.88
-1.50
0.00
-6.00
-5.00
-4.00
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
HERMIN (WARR)
Difference between unemployment rate in the NSRF - based scenario and base scenario (without NSRF) expressed in
percentage points
2222
MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Impact of the NSRF on the rate Impact of the NSRF on the rate of GPD growth in the period 2006-of GPD growth in the period 2006-
20202020
4.20%4.07%3.81%
3.57%
1.49%
3.30%3.08%
6.56%
5.94%5.97%
6.98%
5.62%
6.21%
5.59%
6.57%
4.55%4.50%
4.45%4.39%4.34%4.28%4.22%
4.17%4.11%4.06%4.07%4.03%
5.40%
6.57%
5.38%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Z NSRO
Bez NSRO
2323
MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Hypothetical GDP growth rate inPoland, with the assumption of theaverage rate based on the 2001-06
growth for the EU
Average GDPgrowth rate
in %
GDP percapitaat PPS
In EUR3.5% 5% 6.5% 8%
2001-2006 In 2005 r.Year in which of Poland reaches
respective GDP per capita level of:
EU-27 1,9 22500 2047 2027 2020 2016
EU-15 1,8 25400 2051 2030 2022 2018
Eurozone (12) 1,6 24900 2046 2028 2021 2017
Source: Date of the CSO, Eurostat, MRD calculations*) Doesn’t take into account the demographic changes and changes in the currencies’ purchasing power
Scenarios of Poland’s attainment Scenarios of Poland’s attainment
of the EU economic development of the EU economic development levellevel*)*)
2424
MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Thank you for Thank you for attentionattention
Thank you for Thank you for attentionattention
2525
MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
P O L A N D
Ministry of Regional Ministry of Regional DevelopmentDevelopmentul. Wspólna 2/4ul. Wspólna 2/4www.mrr.gov.plwww.mrr.gov.pl
[email protected]@mrr.gov.pl