MID-TERM ADEQUACY FORECAST 2017

Simone Biondi, ENTSO-E

4 July 2017

MAF 2017: Adequacy Assessment for Europe

Page 2

Supportstakeholdersinqualifieddecision-making

Developareliable,sustainableandconnectedEuropeanpowersystem

Market-basedprobabilisticassessment…

oftheEuropeaninterconnected

System…

forthenextdecade…

inhourlyresolution

Methodology

NetworkInfrastructureAvailableGeneration

DeterministicForecast:• ENTSOs’Scenarios

for2020&2025• PlannedOutages

StochasticUncertainty:• Windspeeds

• Solarradiation• Unplannedoutages

Load

DeterministicForecast:• ENTSOs’Scenarios

for2020&2025

StochasticUncertainty:• Temperature

Adequacy: Balance of generation and load in a network

34yearsofinterdependentclimatedata(see‘PECD’)

N randomdrawsforunplannedoutages

34xNsampleyears

ENTSO-Eillustratio

nbasedonElia(2

016)

x

Construction of Sample Years

How to read probabilistic results?ENS [MWh/y]EnergyNotServed:istheenergynot suppliedbygeneratingsystemdue tothedemandexceedingtheavailablegeneration andimport

LOLE [h/y]LossOfLoadExpectation:isthenumberofhours inayearinwhichtheavailablegenerationplusimportcannotcovertheloadinanregion.

Step1

Step2 Step3

Main improvements compared to the MAF 2016

Consolidationandstandardizationofthedatabase,inlinewithENTSOs’scenarios

Extensionofclimatesampledatato34years,includinghydrointerdependencies

Mothballingà Additionalsensitivityscenario

Alignmentofsystemcostcomponents

RepresentationofDemand-SideResponse

Furthermore:Moremodels- betteraligned

Updatedandimprovedbestestimateoffutureadequacyconditions

Main findings

2020 Loss of load expectations (LOLE1) – base case

1 Loss Of Load Expectation (h/y) LOLE is the number of hours in a given period (year) in which the available generation plus import cannot cover the load in an area

Peripherymoreexposedtoadequacyrisk

0 hours0…10 hours10…20 hours20…30 hours30…40 hours40…>50 hours

SE1SE2SE3SE4SISKTRITLU

LEGENDScenario'2020_s3_LOLE'-value'P95'

0 hours0…10 hours10…20 hours20…30 hours30…40 hours40…>50 hours

SE1SE2SE3SE4SISKTRITLU

LEGENDScenario'2020_s3_LOLE'-value'average'

2025 Loss of load expectations (LOLE1) – base case

Isolatedorsemi-isolatedcountriesmoreexposedtoadequacyrisk

0 hours0…10 hours10…20 hours20…30 hours30…40 hours40…>50 hours

SE1SE2SE3SE4SISKTRITLU

LEGENDScenario'2025_s3_LOLE'-value'average'

0 hours0…10 hours10…20 hours20…30 hours30…40 hours40…>50 hours

SE1SE2SE3SE4SISKTRITLU

LEGENDScenario'2025_s3_LOLE'-value'P95'

old maintenance

plan

new maintenance

plan

Poland LOLE in 2020 [hours/year]

Revision and effect of maintenance schedules – the case of Poland

• Several Polish generators expected to schedule maintenance to fulfil new Best Available Technologies standards around 2020 à substantial PL generator unavailability conservatively assumed by Polish TSO

Previous assumptions (before May 2017)

• Preliminary results of the MAF identified extremely high levels of LOLE / ENS in 2020, also due to import constraints on synchronous profile

… entailed substantial adequacy issues in MAF 2017 calculations

• In May 2017, PSE coordinated bilateral meetings with Polish utilities• à Triggered a revision of maintenance schedules• à Coordinated assumptions allowed huge improvement of PL reliability

• NOTEfromPSE:ThisdoesNOTpreventgeneratorsfromconsideringeconomicdecommissioning, howeverPolandplans toimplementcapacitymarkettoeffectivelyincreasethesystemreliability

… and triggered an important revision of assumptions

MAFfacilitatestheexchangeandcoordinationofinformationandactivities

Impact of climatic years: example of 19851985

ExtremeclimateconditionshavelargeimpactonresultsCommonstandardsneeded:data,models,metrics

Sou

rce:

Met

eo-F

ranc

e

Mothballing sensitivity à large uncertainty…

Importance tohavereliablegenerationplanfromutility(min3-5years)Crucialtogetclearpicture

à 15% capacity reduction vs. base case

Mothballing in 45% of the countries significantly impact adequacy in 82% of the countries

01000200030004000500060007000

PL DE

FR HU AT BE ITs

HR

GR IE

DKe LT

ITcn BA FI BG RS

SK CY

ITn

ITsa

rLV

Mot

hbal

led

capa

city

[MW

]

…with wide effect à strong interdependency

Significantimpactonadequacyinalargerregion

Coordinatedstudiesneeded

2025 - Average LOLE for base case and mothballingsensitivity

LOLE’s increase in country with mothballing

LOLE’s increase in country withoutmothballing

Bidding Zone with mothballing capacity, negligible LOLE

NO mothballing capacity, negligible LOLE

Reliability standards throughout Europe

Largevariationinreliabilitystandardsandthresholds

Sou

rce:

AC

ER

/CE

ER

mon

itorin

g re

port

of IE

M (2

016)

Commonassumptionsneeded:isolatedorinterconnected?

Interdependent measures to eliminate distortions

CleanEnergyPackage:“WheretheEuropeanresourceadequacyassessmentidentifiesaresourceadequacyconcernMemberStatesshallidentifyanyregulatorydistortions thatcausedorcontributed totheemergenceoftheconcern”

StrongPan-EuropeanandtechnologicalinterdependenciesNeedtocoordinateandalignactivities

Adequacy

Generation Capacity

Inter-connection

Flexibility

Demand-Side

Response

Energy Efficiency

Storage

Probabilistic assessment of the residual load 𝑅𝐿 = 𝐿 −𝑊 − 𝑆 − 𝑚𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑢𝑛

Adequacy Forecast – need for flexibility

𝑅𝐿 = 𝐿 −𝑊 − 𝑆 − 𝑚𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑢𝑛

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

DE TR GB FR ES ITn PL NL

NOs

SE3 AT BE CZ GR

ITcs PT FI

ITcn HU CH RO IE BG RS ITs

DKw SK SE4

ITsic

HR

DKe SI

NOm AL NI

SE2 LT BA

NOn LV EE MK

ITsar

CY SE1

LUg

ME

LUf IS MT

LUb

DKkf

DEkf

HourlyResidualLoadRa

mps[GW

]

Absolutevaluesofhourlyresidualloadramps(99.9thPercentile)

10.3 9.3 8.47.2

5.6 5.43.3 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4

-9.9

-5.9-8.6

-5.0 -4.7-3.6 -3.0

-1.5 -1.8 -1.3 -1.1 -1.5

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

DE TR GB FR ES ITn PL NL NOs SE3 AT BEHo

urlyResidualLoadRa

mps[GW

]

Absolutevaluesofhourlyresidualloadramps(99.9thPercentile)

Adequacy Forecast – need for flexibility

Conclusions & next steps

In conclusion - upcoming challengesMAF à Further improvements

Stakeholdersà Decisions and support

Data • Extension of PECD with hydrological information

• Enhance Market DB

• Transparency Platform for (de)commissioning (3-5 years ahead)

• Rating of (de)commissioning assumptions (e.g. AAA, BB-, …)?

Models • Flow-based method• Ramping constraints

• Definition and conformity assessment of models?

Metrics • Economic indicators• Quantification of system

interdependencies

• Definition of reliability standards

Goal: Enhanced usefulness for all stakeholders

Adoptmeasurestoeliminatedistortions

DataCollection

EuropeanModelling&Analysis

StakeholderConsultation

Regional&NationalAnalysis

Embedding the MAF to unfold its full potential MAF2019

MAF2018

MAF2017…

DataCollection

…09/2017

11/2017

Reportanddataset,jointlywithENTSOs’scenarios