MGG Mongolia Portfolio Strategy

  • Upload
    aaoi2

  • View
    216

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

  • 7/31/2019 MGG Mongolia Portfolio Strategy

    1/9

    September 18, 2012

    Nick Cousyn

    [email protected]

    &KLHI2SHUDWLQJ2IFHU

    DW^

    d^>DW

    :H DUH LQLWLDWLQJ SULFH WDUJHWV IRU WKH06(7RS0RQJROLDQ6RYHUHLJQ'HEWDQGWKH017LQ86(XUR

  • 7/31/2019 MGG Mongolia Portfolio Strategy

    2/9

    2012 BDSec Sales & Research Team www.bdsec.mn September 2012 2

    DW^

    KLJKRIZHYLHZFXUUHQWSULFHVDVH[WUHPHO\FRPSHOOLQJ2XUDGYLFH

    WRLQYHVWRUVLV WREHJLQEXLOGLQJSRVLWLRQVQRZWDNLQJDGYDQWDJHRIURFNERWWRP

    SULFHV7KRVHZKRZDLWIRUDUHFRYHU\WRWDNHVKDSHZLOOOLNHO\KDYHWRFKDVHPXFK

    KLJKHUSULFHVDQGOLPLWHGOLTXLGLW\:LWKDPDUNHWFDSIRUWKH06(RIMXVW%

    WKHOLVWHGFRPSDQLHVLQ0RQJROLDDUHEHLQJYDOXHGDWURXJKO\WKHHTXLYDOHQW

    RIRQH86VPDOOFDSVWRFN+DYLQJYLVLWHGDQGUHVHDUFKHGPDQ\0RQJROLDQFRP

    SDQLHVLWLVRXURSLQLRQWKDWFXUUHQWDVVHWYDOXHVOHWDORQHIXWXUHUHYHQXHVDQG

    HDUQLQJV IDU H[FHHG FXUUHQW YDOXDWLRQV6WDWH RZQHGHQWHUSULVHV ZLOO FRQWLQXH

    WREHSULYDWL]HGZKLFKZLOORIIHULQYHVWRUVDFFHVVWRSULPHRSSRUWXQLWLHV$WWKH

    PRPHQWWKHJRYHUQPHQWRZQVDPDMRULW\VWDNHLQIRXURIWKHHLJKWODUJHVWFRP

    SDQLHVRQWKH06(LQFOXGLQJ7DYDQ7ROJRL/LWWOH77%DJDQXXU6KLYHH2YRRDQG

    7HOHFRP0RQJROLD3ULYDWL]DWLRQRIWKHVHDVVHWVZLOOLQFUHDVHOLTXLGLW\DQGIRUHLJQ

    LQYHVWPHQWRQWKH06(

    6KRXOGHVWLPDWHVIRU*'3JURZWKFRPHWRSDVVWKH0RQJROLDQHFRQRP\ZRXOG

    DOPRVWTXDGUXSOHLQVL]HE\OLNHO\RIIHULQJHTXLW\UHWXUQVRIRUPRUH:HZLOOORRNDWWKHSHUIRUPDQFHRI86HFRQRP\HTXLW\PDUNHWVIURP

    DVDWHPSODWHIRUZKDWPD\XQIROGLQ0RQJROLDQFDSLWDOPDUNHWV7RWDO

    86*'3LQZDV7LQFUHDVLQJWRQHDUO\7LQJURZLQJWKHVL]H

    RIWKHHFRQRP\URXJKO\['XULQJWKHVDPHSHULRGWKH63DSSUHFLDWHG

    IURPDSULFHRILQWRLQDQHDUIROGLQFUHDVH7KH3ULPH

    5DWHLQWKH86KLWLQZKLFKLVQRWGLVVLPLODUWRFXUUHQWERUURZLQJFRVWV

    LQ0RQJROLD7KHSHULRGLQWKH86DOVRGHPRQVWUDWHVWKHSRZHURI

    VHFXODUJURZWKDQGWKHGXUDWLRQRIVXFKEXOOPDUNHWV\HDUVZKLFKZHVXV

    SHFWLVXQIROGLQJKHUHLQ0RQJROLD,WLVDOVRLPSRUWDQWWRUHFRJQL]HWKDWWKHF\FOHV

    LQVHFXODUEXOOPDUNHWVDQGHFRQRPLFH[SDQVLRQVDUHPXFKORQJHUFRPSDUHGZLWK

    PRUHF\FOLFDOHFRQRPLHV+LVWRULFDOO\QRUPDOHFRQRPLFF\FOHVHQFRXQWHUUHFHV

    VLRQVHYHU\\HDUV7KH86HQFRXQWHUHGRQO\WZRUHFHVVLRQVGXULQJSHULRGRI

    DVVXFKZHH[SHFWWKHQH[WUHFHVVLRQIRU0RQJROLD

    WREHDORQJZD\RIISHUKDSVQRWXQWLORUODWHU

    Source: EconStats.com Source: United States Census Bureau

    S&P 500 Large Cap Index (SPX) Nominal GPD of the USA (US$ billion)

    )LJXUH )LJXUH

  • 7/31/2019 MGG Mongolia Portfolio Strategy

    3/9

    2012 BDSec Sales & Research Team www.bdsec.mn 3

    DW^

    September 2012

    :HH[SHFWWKH0RQJROLDQ7RJURJWR DSSUHFLDWHDQ\ZKHUHIURPDJDLQVW

    WKHZRUOGVPDMRUFXUUHQFLHVRYHUWKHQH[WPRQWKV$VPHQWLRQHGHDUOLHU

    WKHPDMRULW\RIWKHFHQWUDOEDQNVZRUOGZLGHDUHORRVHQLQJPRQHWDU\SROLF\DQGLQ

    PRVWFDVHVSRVWLQJQHJDWLYHUHDOUDWHVZKLFKZLOOOLNHO\UHVXOWLQKLJKHULQD

    WLRQRYHUWLPH0RQJROLDLVRQHRIWKHIHZFRXQWULHVLQWKHZRUOGZKHUHPRQHWDU\

    SROLF\LV WLJKWHQLQJZLWKWKHFHQWUDOEDQNLQFUHDVLQJUHVHUYHUHTXLUHPHQWVLQDQ

    HIIRUWWRUHGXFHOLTXLGLW\7KH0RQJROLDQ&HQWUDO%DQN0&%LVDOVRLQFUHDVLQJLWV

    $V\RX FDQVHH LQWKH EHORZFKDUW WKH0RQJROLDQ HFRQRP\KDV WKHSRWHQWLDO WR

    JURZQHDUO\LQOHVVWKDQ\HDUVIURP,IWKH63LQFUHDVHG

    GXULQJDSHULRGZKHUH*'3JUHZZHZRXOGVXJJHVW

    7KH%OXH6N\LVWKH/LPLWIRU0RQJROLDQHTXLWLHV,QYHVWRUVVKRXOGDOVRFRQVLGHU

    WKHSRVVLELOLW\RIHYHQJUHDWHUFXUUHQF\DGMXVWHGUHWXUQVHVSHFLDOO\WKRVHZKROLYH

    LQD86'(85RU-31GHQRPLQDWHGZRUOG:HGLVFXVVRXUEXOOLVKYLHZRQWKH

    0RQJROLDQ7RJURJEHORZ

    Mining production forecast, by minerals type

    Source: ACI Mongolia, The Financial Markets Association

    Nominal GDP estimation (bil MNT)

    )LJXUH )LJXUH

    C C C C C C C

    2LO ,URQRUH &RDO &RSSHU *ROG

    C C C C C C C C

    2WKHUVHFWRULQFUHDVH Mining

    %\&DSDFLW\ *'3ELO86'

    XQLWPLO86'

    Mongolian Togrog

    Source: Bloomberg

    Monthly MNT/USD rate (x1000)

    )LJXUH

    2FW 1RY 'HF -DQ )HE Mar $SU 0D\ -XQ -XO $XJ Sep

  • 7/31/2019 MGG Mongolia Portfolio Strategy

    4/9

  • 7/31/2019 MGG Mongolia Portfolio Strategy

    5/9

  • 7/31/2019 MGG Mongolia Portfolio Strategy

    6/9

  • 7/31/2019 MGG Mongolia Portfolio Strategy

    7/9

  • 7/31/2019 MGG Mongolia Portfolio Strategy

    8/9

  • 7/31/2019 MGG Mongolia Portfolio Strategy

    9/9

    The information contained in this report is for general information purposes only. This report and its content is copyright of BDSe-

    curities and all rights reserved. This report- in whole or in part- may not, except with the express written permission of BDSecurities

    be reproduced or distributed or commercially exploited in any material form by any means whether graphic, electronic, mechanicalor any means. Nor may you transmit it or store it in any other website or other form of electronic retrieval system. Any unauthorised

    use of this report will result in immediate proceedings.

    The report has been prepared by BDSecurities Joint Stock Company. The information and opinions contained herein has been

    compiled or arrived at based upon information obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith. Such information

    KDVQRWEHHQLQGHSHQGHQWO\YHULHGDQGQRJXDUDQW\UHSUHVHQWDWLRQRUZDUUDQW\H[SUHVVRULPSOLHGLVPDGHDVWRLWVDFFXUDF\

    completeness or correctness, reliability or suitability. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. Thisdocument is for information purposes only, descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not

    intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to buy or

    VHOODQ\VHFXULWLHVRURWKHUQDQFLDOLQVWUXPHQWV,QQRHYHQWZLOO%'6HFXULWLHVEHOLDEOHIRUDQ\ORVVRUGDPDJHLQFOXGLQJZLWKRXW

    limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising out of, or in connection with the use

    of this report and any reliance you place on such information is therefore strictly at your own risk.

    This publication contains forward-looking statements that involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. These statements

    are based on our own information and on information from other sources we believe to be reliable and generally indicated by the

    use of forward-looking terminology such as believe, expect, estimate, plan, project, may, will, should or other similar

    words that express an indication of actions or results of actions that may or are expected to occur in the future. You should not place

    undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which apply only as of the date of this publication. Any opinions or estimates

    KHUHLQUHHFWWKHMXGJPHQWRI%'6HFDWWKHGDWHRIWKHSXEOLFDWLRQDQGDUHVXEMHFWWRFKDQJHDWDQ\WLPHZLWKRXWQRWLFH

    BDSecurities may, to the extent permissible by applicable law or regulation, use the above material, conclusions, research or analy-

    sis in which they are based before the material is disseminated to their customers. Not all customers will receive the material at

    WKHVDPHWLPH%'6HFXULWLHVWKHLUUHVSHFWLYHGLUHFWRUVRIFHUVUHSUHVHQWDWLYHVHPSOR\HHVUHODWHGSHUVRQVDQGRU%'6HFXULWLHV

    PD\KDYHDORQJRUVKRUWSRVLWLRQLQDQ\RIWKHVHFXULWLHVRURWKHUQDQFLDOLQVWUXPHQWVPHQWLRQHGRULVVXHUVGHVFULEHGKHUHLQDWDQ\

    WLPHDQGPD\PDNHDSXUFKDVHDQGRUVDOHRURIIHUWRPDNHDSXUFKDVHDQGRUVDOHRIDQ\VXFKVHFXULWLHVRURWKHUQDQFLDOLQVWUX-

    ments from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principal or agent. BDSecurities may make markets

    LQVHFXULWLHVRURWKHUQDQFLDOLQVWUXPHQWVGHVFULEHGLQWKLVSXEOLFDWLRQLQVHFXULWLHVRILVVXHUVGHVFULEHGKHUHLQRULQVHFXULWLHVunderlying or related to such securities. BDSecurities may have recently underwritten the securities of an issuer mentioned herein.

    Disclaimer

    BDSec Headquarter BDSec Express Branch

    =DOXXFKXXG$YHQXHWK.KRURR6XNKEDDWDU'LVWULFW8ODDQEDDWDU0RQJROLD3KRQH)D[:HEVLWHZZZEGVHFPQ

    ([SUHVV7RZHU3HDFH$YHQXH8ODDQEDDWDU0RQJROLD3KRQH)D[(PDLOLQIR#EGVHFPQ

    Institutional Sales & Research Department

    SKRQHID[PDLOUHVHDUFK#EGVHFPQ

    Dagiijanchiv Chuluunbaatar5HVHDUFKHPDLOGDJLLMDQFKLY#EGVHFPQ

    Odbayar Oyunbaatar5HVHDUFKHPDLORG#EGVHFPQ

    Sainbayar Jadamba,QVWLWXWLRQDO6DOHVHPDLOVDLQED\DU#EGVHFPQ

    Munkhtulga Ganbold+HDGRI,QVWLWXWLRQDO6DOHVHPDLOPJDQEROG#EGVHFPQ

    Nick Cousyn&KLHI2SHUDWLQJ2IFHU

    [email protected]

    DW^