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C.A.R.’s Market Pulse Survey is a monthly online survey to gather California REALTORS®’ sentiment about their last closed transaction and business activity for the previous month and the last year.
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MARKET PULSEJuly 2015
1
Survey Methodology
• Monthly online survey of 300+ CA REALTORS®
• Respondents are asked about their last closedtransaction and business activity in their market areafor the previous month and the last year.
2
LASTTRANSACTION
3
Nearly 2/3 of TransactionsClosed at theAsking Price orbelow
Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?
34%
43%
24%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15
Over Below At
4
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Premium Paid OverAsking Price Flat
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold over asking price?
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15
7.1%
11% 11%
Average
5
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Discount on Asking Price Increases
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?
-14.0%
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
Jul-14Aug-
14Sep-
14Oct-
14Nov-
14Dec-
14Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Average -5.8% -5.6% -5.8% -6.3% -12% -13% -11% -11% -11% -11% -7.0% -11% -9.6%
6
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
67% of Properties Receiving MultipleOffers
Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?
66%65%
67%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15
7
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Number of Offers Received Remained Flat
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15
2.72.9 3.0
Average
Q: How many offers did your last closed transaction receive?
8
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Proportion of Properties with Listing PriceReductions increased significantly from prior month
Q: Were there any listing price reductions before escrow opened in your last closed transaction?
25%
21%
28%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
9
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
A marginal increase of Previous Renters
Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a renter immediately prior to purchasing the property?
32%
37% 38%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15
10
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Fewer Sellers Becoming Renters
Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter immediately after selling the property?
15% 15%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15
11
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Share of First-time Buyers Fluctuating Less in RecentMonths
Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?
32%
30%
32%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%Ja
n-1
4
Feb
-14
Mar
-14
Ap
r-14
May
-14
Jun
-14
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4
Sep
-14
Oct
-14
No
v-14
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-15
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
% First-time Buyers Long Run Average
12
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Majority Purchases are Primary Residences
Q: What was the intended use of the property?
78% 75% 78%
15%16% 16%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan
-14
Feb
-14
Mar
-14
Ap
r-14
May
-14
Jun
-14
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4
Sep
-14
Oct
-14
No
v-14
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-15
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Primary residence Investment Vacation home Other
13
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
International Buyers Fluctuate
Q: Was the buyer an international client (one who was not a citizen or permanent resident of the U.S.)?
6.1%
7.9%8.0%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Jan
-14
Feb
-14
Mar
-14
Ap
r-14
May
-14
Jun
-14
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4
Sep
-14
Oct
-14
No
v-14
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-15
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
% International Buyers Long Run Average
14
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
MARKET CONDITIONS
15
Floor Calls from Potential Clients Declining
Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was …
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15
Down Flat Up
16
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
ListingAppointments/Presentations toClientsSlowing Down
Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in your market areathis month was …
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15
Down Flat Up
17
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Open HouseTraffic Declining
Q: Compared to last month/year, open house traffic in your market area this month was …
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15
Down Flat Up
18
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Auctions Steady
Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of auctions in your market area this month was …
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15
Down Flat Up
19
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
All Cash Purchases FlatteningOut
Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of all cash purchases in your market area this month was …
34%
46%
19%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15
Down Flat Up
20
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
1 In 4 REALTORS®AreConcernedAbout Inventory
21
26%
16%
12%
4.3% 3.9% 3.5% 3.2%1.4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Majority of REALTORS® Expect Better/SimilarMarketConditionsOver the NextYear
Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?
17%
47%
36%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15
Worsen Same Improve
22
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Why REALTORS® Expect MarketConditions toWorsen
Rise in interest rates
Poor economy
Uncertainty in market
Decrease in home affordability
Q: Why do you expect real estate market conditions to worsen over the next year?
23
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
What are REALTORS® Saying?
Market activity is stagnant.
No longer a sellers market
Escrows are closing late
Buyer and seller expectations are not in sync
Q: Do you have any specific comments, professional observations, or information that you would like to sharewith us--such as information on multiple bidding, changing buyer preferences, mortgage credit issues, orother topics?
24
Top 10 Counties
Q: In which county do you live?
25
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
June 2015 July 2015
1 Los Angeles Los Angeles
2 San Diego Orange County
3 Riverside Sacramento
4 Orange Santa Clara
5 Alameda San Diego
6 Santa Clara Riverside
7 Sacramento Contra Costa
8 San Luis Obispo Placer
9 Marin Alameda
10 Sonoma San Mateo