March 2013 Gaëtan Siew CEO

GLOBAL CITIESInfluence & Change to/from Asian Community

“What is a city, but the people?” Coriolanus – Shakespeare - 1608

Key Points

1. Importance of Cities2. Drivers3. Development Pathways4. Urban World in 20255. Stress on Cities6. Lessons

Challenging World – Importance of Cities World – 600 Cities600 Cities : Population > 0.75mAverage City : 2.50 m2012: 21 Mega-cities > 10.0 m2025 : 29 Mega-cities > 10.0 mTop Urban growth: (Cn, In, US, Ni, Bd, Br)

World 2050 = 9 bn 75% Urban – Now 50%++Cities 66% world energy usageCities 80% world emissions

Belo Horizonte = 2.50 m

Challenges•Rapid Urban Growth•Pressure on resources ( Energy/Water)•Capacity to absorb Pollution/Waste

Challenging World – Importance of Cities

Mumbai = 20.50 m

Challenging World – Importance of Cities

Opportunities•New business models•Ability to impact on maximum population

• Targeted• Smart level of investment

Scale of intervention• More effective to address resource

management• Water & Energy• Air & Waste Management• City level instead regional/national levels

Luanda= 5.2 m

Challenging World – Importance of Cities

Opportunities

Cities impose own policies & regulationsSocio-economic – Environmental Responsive to infrastructure developmentMitigating effects of pollutionPower and water shortagesClimate change control

Copenhagen = 2,6 m2011 only electric /H² cars2025 First carbon neutral capital

Drivers of City Development

•People•Energy

CREATIVE CITIESDiversity – Quality of Life

HNWI : Expats Assets > 1 m $2011 = 11 m >>> 43 tn $

Drivers of City Development

•People•Energy

ENERGY USAGE FACTORS• Climate• Economic activity• Geography• Income disparities• Population• Urban Design

Amsterdam = 2.3mSmart City initiative Energy efficient in EUBiomass /biogas from waste/sewage into heat and electricity.

Los Angeles = 17.80mCity Sprawling

Huge Consumers• Large Cities• Prosperous

Cities• Sprawling Cities

Amsterdam = 2.3 m

Drivers of City Development

•Six City Archetypes

UNDER-PRIVILEDGED CROWDED CITIESLagos, Manila, Lima

UNDEVELOPED URBAN CENTRESMarrakech, Belgrade, Panama

Marrakech = 1.06 m

URBAN POWERHOUSESHong Kong, Singapore, Bangalore

Drivers of City Development

•Six City Archetypes

PROSPEROUS COMMUNITIESAmsterdam,Copenhagen

SPRAWLING METROPOLISParis, Houston

Buenos Aires = 14.64m

DEVELOPING MEGA-HUBSBuenos Aires, Hangzhou

Development PathwaysSix Pathways

EMERGING NATIONS

POPULATION & CONSUMPTION GROWTHby 2025

Industrialisation & Modernisation

Controlled Urbanisation

Late Stage Growth

Slum ProliferationUrban DeclineTransition to Megacity

Manila = 20.65m

Development PathwaysSix Pathways

Houston = 6.22m

Urban World 2025

•2010 - 2025

PROSPEROUS COMMUNITIESFrom 127 to 150 nos Especially Asian cities

SPRAWLING METROPOLISUp to 50 nos – Cities richer

Chongqing= 32.0 m

Mexico City = 21.2m

Urban World 2025

•2010 - 2025

URBAN POWERHOUSES x 2++

14 nos in China, IndiaUNDER-PRIVILEDGED CROWDED CITIES30 nos – Decreasing as Asia gets richer

UNDEVELOPED URBAN CENTRESFast developing & Unpredictable

Dhaka= 15.41 m

Bangkok = 8.28 m

Bangalore = 8.43 m

Urban World 2025

•2010 - 2025

660 Cities = 65% GDP >> 30 tn $

FLOOR SPACECities >> +85% more = Austria 84 000 km²E Cities >> 44 000 km² / 80 tn $

440 E Cities = 47% GDP >> 23 tn $440 E Cities = Annual increase + 10 tn $

84 000 sq.km

• Can they all be fitted in that?

Stresses on CitiesUNIVERSAL•Energy Price•Adequate Infrastructure Investment•Public Amenity

ENERGY PRICE• Higher demand• Fiscal restructuring• Emission pricing• Renewable portfolio standards• Fuel price increase

*E –Cities ( Gov subsidy – Challenge in future)

FACTORS•Climate•Geography•Economic Status

Top Green Cities• Reyjavik 99.9% green electricity• San Francisco Energy, green bldgs, transport, air/water

quality• Malmö 3rd largest wind energy park• Vancouver Clean tech innovation, 90% renewable power• Portland 25% public transport, bicycles• Curitiba 70% land recycled – 1.5m trees• Copenhagen 50% bicycles - world leader wind energy• Stockholm 40% city = green spaces• Hamburg Strong port and industrial policies• Bogota Air quality, water supplies, 1200 urban spaces

Curitiba 1.3m

Stresses on Cities

UNIVERSAL•Energy Price•Adequate Infrastructure Investment•Public Amenity

ADEQUATE INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT• End of life cycles : Cities of 60s & 70s• Replacement costs

*E-Cities : Finding ways to pay >> Challenge

Stresses on Cities

UNIVERSAL•Energy Price•Adequate Infrastructure Investment•Public Amenity

PUBLIC AMENITY• Public expectation >> Livability• Better environmental standards• Advanced solutions (Ex Low CO2 >> Coal)

*Rich Cities: Opposition to infrastructure projects(Ex Wind farms, roads, airports etc)Noise – Visually- Pollution

New York Hi Line

Stresses on Cities

UNIVERSAL•Energy Price•Adequate Infrastructure Investment•Public Amenity

PUBLIC AMENITY• Art • A sense of belonging• A sense of pride

“When the city ceases to be a symbol of art and order,it acts in a negative fashion.”Lewis Mumford

Lessons?

Cities = Epicentre of Human Living

Policymakers plans = Keys to future success/failure

Shi SheiObrigado

GratiasMerci

SpasibaThank youShoukran

Gaëtan Siew CEO www.gsiew-gcli.org

“What is a city but the people.” Coriolanus 1608

Shakespeare (UK)