Upload
dodung
View
218
Download
3
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Corporate Summary
3
Introduction: An Egyptian exporter
Split of sanitary ware and tiles1Split of domestic and export1
* All production facilities are owned and controlled by Lecico
Alexandria
KhorshidBorg El-Arab
Cairo
Established 1997
Sanitary ware capacity
2.0 million pcs 2005
4.4 million pcs end 2007
Tiles capacity
6.4 million m2 mid – 2011
12.8 million m2 mid – 2013
Brassware capacity
0.3 million pcs mid – 2010
Borg El-Arab
Established 1975
Sanitary ware capacity
2.5 million pcs 2005
1.8 million pcs (inc FC) end 2008
Tiles capacity
17.0 million m2 2005
21.4 million m2 mid - 2007
Khorshid
Established 1959
Sanitary ware capacity:
350,000 pcs 2007
Tiles capacity
1.1 million m2 2005
Kfarchima
Kfarchima Beirut
Lecico Egypt S.A.E. – one of the world’s largest sanitary ware
producers – was founded in 1959 and has been majority owned by
the Gargour family since 1969
The company has a global competitive advantage making European
quality sanitary ware at Egyptian costs
c45% of Lecico’s sanitary ware sales volume is exported to Europe
Lecico finished expansions in sanitary ware in 2007 which boosted
capacity to 6.5m pieces of sanitary ware and fired clay
In Summer 2010, Lecico began brassware production with a 300,000
piece per annum capacity factory
In 2011 Lecico opened a new tile factory in Borg El Arab which
reached 12.8m sqm capacity in 2013 (Total tile capacity 35m sqm)
In mid-2014, Lecico faced a 133% increase in gas prices driving a
20% increase in production costs
Note: (1) FY 2015 3
A major sanitary ware exporter
5
A major sanitary ware exporter to Europe
Growth in group’s exports
Export focus on Europe
• Sanitary ware export volumes grew at 1.9% CAGR (2005-2015)
• Sharp slowdown in Middle East exports in 2014 onwards
• Average of over 75% of exports are to Western Europe
• Percentage has risen in the last two years as Middle Eastern
markets have weakened and regional competition increased
Lecico’s total export volumes (sanitary ware) Egypt’s leading sanitary ware exporter
Europe as percentages of total exports Growth of Lecico brand sanitary ware market share in UK
• Lecico exports c56% of its sales vs. 20% for local peers
• Lecico sells to over 50 countries (including OEM sales)
• Approximately 26% of exports (15% of sanitary ware
sales volumes) are for other brands
• Lecico represents over 50% of Egypt’s sanitary ware
exports with the balance split among 9 manufacturers
• UK estimated c16% market share in Lecico-branded sales
• A further c3% market share in OEM and white label sales to
the UK
6
Significant cost advantage
International cost advantage
Lecico produces sanitary ware at an all-in average cost of US$15.50/piece
– In Egypt, manufacturing cost averages US$11.24/piece of sanitary ware
– The difference reflects higher packing costs for EU-destined exports and significantly higher industrial cost in Lebanon
– Costs have risen in the past few years due to energy cost inflation in 2014 and reduced production utilisation
– Our information suggests other low cost producers’ manufacturing cost averages US$15-30/piece
– While European producers average US$30+/piece depending on their market
Why is Lecico able to produce so competitively?
– Egypt: Low energy costs, low labour cost, low investment costs, low effective taxes
– Size: Economies of scale, standard global plant size: 1m pieces
– Experience: Over 50 years manufacturing experience
– Efficiency: Production per employee is over twice that of our local competitors
Investment, distribution and overheads benefit from regional economies of scale
– Sanitary ware investment cost approx US$30-40/piece vs. US$35-55/piece global standard
– Low shipping cost to Europe: US$1.50 per sanitary ware piece vs. approx US$8+ for Asian manufactures
Cost increases 2014
Energy price increases add LE 200 million in costs
Item Increase Impact
Natural Gas 133% from USD 3.0/mbtu to USD 7.0/mbtu 70% of energy costs, energy is 20% of cogs
Electricity 33% from EGP 0.33/KwH to EGP 0.42/KwH 30% of energy costs, energy is 20% of cogs
Diesel petrol 64% from EGP 1.10/ltr to EGP 1.80/ltr All goods and materials will face inflation
Cheapest (80 Octane) petrol 78% from EGP 0.90/ltr to EGP 1.60/ltr General inflation in Egypt
In July 2014, the government announced an massive increase in energy prices which will have a
profound effect on Lecico’s financials:
Lecico estimates that these changes increase cost by at least LE 200 million per year:
– Change raise COGs to about LE 200 million assuming volumes unchanged and no improvement in production/cost structure
– Approximately LE 11 (USD 1.55) extra cost per piece of sanitary ware (c 30% of the LE 200 million plus increase in costs)
– Approximately LE 4 (USD 0.55) extra cost per square meter (c 70% of the LE 200 million increase in costs)
– In 2H 14 and 1H 15, Unit cost increases have matched forecasts despite significant squeeze on volumes as a result of:
– Better energy recuperation and continued efficiency/de-bottlenecking improvements
The additional LE 200 million in costs is more than our annualised profit
– Net profit for the 12 months from 3Q13-2Q14 was LE 120.1 million
8
Lecico enacted significant price increases in 08/14…
On average Lecico needs around a 15% price increase to cover the cost inflation
– By segment we need a 9% increase in sanitary ware and a 20% increase in tiles average group consolidated prices
– This would only absorb costs and would still result in lower margins (%)
– To date, we have only agreed increased prices of Sanitary ware in Egypt and some export markets
– Price increases done to Middle East markets and Egyptian tiles in 2H 2014 have been rolled back due to competition
So far, Lecico has raised average prices by around 3%:
– Tile average prices have been reduced 1% from 2014 levels, reducing the price raising the average price USD 0.02/sqm vs the USD 0.55
increase needed.
– Sanitary ware average prices have increased 6% from 20134 levels, raising the average price USD 1.10/pc vs USD 1.55 needed
Increases cover approximately 20% of the LE 200 million or more forecasted cost increase
– Lecico has also improved energy utilisation to reduce the impact of the increase and COGS have increased 10% compared to revenues year-
on-year in 2015.
– However the drop in volumes has meant that annualised gross profits are down approximately LE 170 million if we compare 2015 to 2014
9
…but oversupply has sharply hit sales volumes
Consumer demand in Egypt squeezed since 2H 14
– Consumer inflation squeezed spending on tiles and sanitary ware from 2H 2014 onwards with sales in Egypt falling 8% in 2015 year-on-year
– Added competition particularly in tiles and sluggish economy
Exports to Libya also limited and fragile
– The Middle East in general and Libya in particular have been sharply affected by regional instability
– Sales to Libya were down 62% year-on-year in 2015
– Combined with slowing sales to Egypt this creates an even greater gap between production and sales capability for Lecico and peers
particularly in tiles which were primarily a domestic and regional export business
Egyptian market facing surplus capacity of around 30% in tiles
– Informal market data suggests that installed tile capacity in Egypt reached 490 million square meters per day while actual production is around
340 million square meters
– Lecico Egypt tile sales are down 19% year-on-year
Increased price competition as manufacturers fight for market share
– Price competition and aggressive bargaining to shore up market share have been common in 2H 2015, forcing Lecico to reduce prices in tiles
Higher costs and lower sales have taken Lecico from most profitable first half ever (1H 2014) to the
significant losses in 2015
2016 is likely to be an even more challenging year given the reduction in volumes and tile prices over the
course of 2015.
10
Cost increase and slowdown since 2H14
11
Lecico Group 2013 2014 2015
Sanitary Ware Analysis 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY FY FY
Volume (000's pieces)
Egypt 670 668 511 645 473 645 533 415 470 555 464 507 2,494 2,066 1,995
Lebanon 36 83 52 21 25 39 76 10 18 29 35 27 192 150 109
Exports 655 779 794 763 796 845 711 766 751 766 613 600 2,990 3,118 2,730
Total Volume 1,361 1,530 1,357 1,428 1,294 1,530 1,319 1,191 1,239 1,350 1,112 1,134 5,676 5,335 4,835
Average Selling Price 123.8 130.9 137.2 127.5 133.2 137.3 146.8 143.1 142.1 143.7 163.3 146.9 129.8 140.0 148.5
Revenue 168.5 200.3 186.1 182.0 172.4 210.1 193.6 170.5 176.0 194.0 181.6 166.5 737.0 746.6 718.2
Cost of Sales 134.9 157.9 143.9 139.2 130.0 154.4 165.3 143.0 134.3 157.5 140.9 149.8 575.9 592.7 582.6
Average Cost Per Piece 99.2 103.2 106.1 97.5 100.5 100.9 125.3 120.0 108.5 116.7 126.7 132.1 101.5 111.1 120.5
Gross Profit 33.5 42.4 42.2 42.9 42.3 55.7 28.4 27.5 41.7 36.5 40.7 16.7 161.0 153.9 135.5
Gross Profit Margin 20% 21% 23% 24% 25% 27% 15% 16% 24% 19% 22% 10% 22% 21% 19%
Lecico Group 2013 2014 2015
Tile Analysis 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY FY FY
Volume (000's sqm)
Egypt 5,070 5,992 5,898 6,950 6,525 6,764 7,247 4,921 4,877 6,164 4,964 4,575 23,910 25,457 20,581
Lebanon 424 695 378 409 521 398 611 73 210 359 303 202 1,906 1,603 1,074
Exports 1,714 1,955 2,116 1,891 1,744 1,887 652 1,702 1,011 1,353 625 1,142 7,676 5,985 4,132
Total Volume 7,208 8,642 8,392 9,250 8,790 9,049 8,510 6,697 6,098 7,876 5,892 5,919 33,492 33,045 25,786
Average Selling Price 21.1 21.8 21.8 21.5 22.7 22.6 24.2 25.5 23.2 24.0 24.9 21.7 21.6 23.6 23.5
Revenue 152.4 188.7 182.7 198.6 199.4 204.1 206.2 170.7 141.3 188.7 146.9 128.4 722.4 780.5 605.4
Cost of Sales 96.6 116.8 117.8 129.4 128.9 130.1 150.7 122.0 115.1 149.3 118.4 127.6 460.7 531.7 510.4
Average Cost Per sqm 13.4 13.5 14.0 14.0 14.7 14.4 17.7 18.2 18.9 19.0 20.1 21.6 13.8 16.1 19.8
Gross Profit 55.7 72.0 64.8 69.1 70.5 74.1 55.5 48.7 26.2 39.4 28.6 0.8 261.7 248.8 95.0
Gross Profit Margin 37% 38% 35% 35% 35% 36% 27% 29% 19% 21% 19% 1% 36% 32% 16%
2013 2014 2015
2013 2014 2015
Cost increase and slowdown impact since 2H 2014
12
Lecico Group 2013 2014 2015
Profit & Loss (LE Million) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY FY FY
Sanitary Ware 168.5 200.3 186.1 182.0 172.4 210.1 193.6 170.5 176.0 194.0 181.6 166.5 737.0 746.6 718.2
Tiles 152.4 188.7 182.7 198.6 199.4 204.1 206.2 170.7 141.3 188.7 146.9 128.4 722.4 780.5 605.4
Brassware 11.0 11.0 9.2 10.4 12.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.9 12.1 10.3 12.6 41.6 46.1 46.9
Net Revenues 331.9 400.0 378.0 391.0 383.8 425.4 411.3 352.8 329.2 394.9 338.9 307.6 1,500.9 1,573.2 1,370.5
Cost of Sales 240.8 282.5 268.0 275.8 267.6 291.8 323.0 271.4 256.2 314.3 266.2 288.2 1,067.1 1,153.7 1,124.8
Gross Profit 91.0 117.5 110.0 115.2 116.2 133.6 88.3 81.4 73.0 80.6 72.7 19.4 433.8 419.5 245.7
% of Sales 27% 29% 29% 29% 30% 31% 21% 23% 22% 20% 21% 6% 29% 27% 18%
Selling expenses 17.3 20.6 18.1 20.7 14.6 18.8 15.8 16.6 17.8 20.0 20.3 24.8 76.7 65.8 83.0
Administration expenses 31.3 33.2 32.4 36.0 30.4 33.7 33.0 29.8 32.4 33.1 36.0 31.6 133.0 126.9 133.1
Overheads 48.7 53.7 50.6 56.7 45.0 52.5 48.8 46.4 50.2 53.1 56.3 56.4 209.7 192.7 216.0
% of Sales 15% 13% 13% 15% 12% 12% 12% 13% 15% 13% 17% 18% 14% 12% 16%
Operating Profit (EBIT) 42.4 63.8 59.5 58.5 71.2 81.2 39.5 35.0 22.8 27.4 16.4 (37.0) 224.1 226.8 29.6
% of Sales 13% 16% 16% 15% 19% 19% 10% 10% 7% 7% 5% -12% 15% 14% 2%
Net Financial Expenses (23.0) (27.9) (28.1) (27.0) (22.1) (23.2) (22.2) (23.8) (19.8) (20.1) (20.1) (19.3) (106.0) (91.3) (79.3)
Dividend Income (0.0) 3.4 (0.2) (103.0) (0.0) 2.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 (99.7) 2.6 2.5
Exchange Variances 8.2 6.2 (4.6) 5.3 0.5 9.5 (0.3) (0.5) 7.6 2.9 2.3 (1.2) 15.2 9.2 11.6
Profit before tax 27.6 45.5 26.7 (66.2) 49.6 69.9 17.0 10.7 10.6 12.7 (1.4) (57.4) 33.6 147.3 (35.6)
% of Sales 8% 11% 7% -17% 13% 16% 4% 3% 3% 3% 0% -19% 2% 9% -3%
Taxes , profit share & minorities (11.3) (11.9) (9.0) (19.4) (14.6) (20.1) (11.7) (9.2) (8.4) (8.8) (7.3) (5.0) (51.6) (55.7) (29.5)
Net Profit after tax 16.3 33.6 17.6 (85.5) 35.0 49.8 5.3 1.5 2.2 3.9 (8.7) (62.4) (18.0) 91.6 (65.1)
% of Sales 5% 8% 5% -22% 9% 12% 1% 0% 1% 1% -3% -20% -1% 6% -5%
2013 2014 2015
Strategy for 2016: Gain volumes and cut costs
Lecico enacting aggressive pricing solutions to gain volumes in Egypt and export
– Lecico decreased tile prices by c 12% through three price reductions enacted over 2015.
– Lecico introducing new lowest cost/lowest price tile and sanitary ware solutions
– Lecico pushing for expanded retail footprint in Egypt, increasing independent and direct sales showrooms dramatically
– Lecico looking for new export opportunities in tile and sanware with aggressive pricing to replace lost sales in Egypt and Libya
Lecico taking defensive measures to shore up P&L and cash flows
– Lecico has mothballed 30% of tile capacity and 12% of sanitary ware capacity from the start of the year reducing fixed costs
– Lecico has unwound part of its long FX position reducing interest expense by an estimated LE 21 million per year
– Lecico is looking reduce working capital and expenses in 2016 to deliver best possible cash flow and relative earnings in this difficult period
13
Financial overview
15
Profit and loss
Net sales Cost of sales breakdown (9m 2015)
EBIT Net Profit *
* = 2013 net profit excludes write-off for France
16
Quarterly P&L Trends
Net sales Gross profit*
EBIT* Net Profit*
* = 4Q 2013 net profit excludes write-off for France
17
Segmental analysis
Sanitary ware – sales volumes and revenue Sanitary ware – gross profit and marginSanitary ware – selling price and cost per piece
Tiles – sales volumes and revenues Tiles – selling price and cost per sqm Tiles – gross profit and margin
18
Quarterly Segmental trends
Sanitary ware average price, cost and profit per piece Sanitary ware sales volume
Tile Average Price, Cost and Profit per sqm Tile sales volume
19
Balance sheet and cash flow
Working capital
Returns and leverage Capital expenditures 2016f
Maintenance Capex and tile diversification investment LE 60.0m
Share performance and data
21
Shareholding structure and performance
Lecico valued at a market cap of US$ 31 million with a 51% free float
– All activity is in the local share
– Local share trades circa US$ 13,000 per day and on 70% of trading days (FY 2015)
Share liquidity overview (Local)
Liquidity has moved to local share and improved Lecico share price
Lecico trades at a EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.8x 2015 results
– Price to book value of 0.3x
– With a net loss the company does not have a PER for 2015
Shareholding structure
22
Thank you
For additional information, please contact:
Taher G. Gargour
Telephone: +203 518 0011
Fax: +203 518 0029
E-mail: [email protected]
Visit our website at: www.lecico.com
Forward-looking statements:
This presentation may contain certain “forward-looking statements”, relating to Lecico Egypt S.A.E. business, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “will”, “planned”, “expectations”, “forecast” or similar expressions, or by discussions of strategy, plans or intentions. Such statements may include descriptions of investments planned or currently under development by Lecico Egypt S.A.E. and the anticipated impact of these investments. Such statements reflect the current views of Lecico Egypt S.A.E. with respect to future events and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Many factors could cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Lecico Egypt S.A.E. to be materially different from any future results that may be expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.