THEPOLICY

SCIENCESRecent Developments in

Scope and Method

Edited by

DANIEL LERNER and HAROLD D. LASSWELLwith the editorial collaboration of

HAROLD H. FISHER} ERNEST R. HILGARD

SAUL K. PADOVER, ITHIEL DE SOLA POOL

C. EASTON ROTHWELL

STANFORD UNIVERSITT PRESSSTANFORD, CALTFORNIA

The Policy OrientationHAROLD D. LASSWELL

FHE continuing crisis of national secur-.ty in which we live calls for the mostefficient use of the manpower, facilities,,ind resources of the American people.Highly trained talent is always scarceand costly. Hence the crisis poses theproblem of utilizing our intellectualresources with the wSJesl- economy. IfDUT policy needs are to be served, whattopics of research are most worthy ofpursuit? What manpower and facilitiesshould be allocated to official agenciesand to private institutions for the prose-cution of research? What are the mostpromising methods of gathering factsand interpreting their significance forpolicy? How can facts and interpreta-tions be made effective in the decision-making process itself?

Although the importance of thesequestions is emphasized by the urgencyof national defense, they are in no sensenew. For years there has been a livelyconcern in intellectual circles for theproblem of overcoming the divisivetendencies of modern life and of bring-ing into existence a more thorough in-tegration of the goals and methods ofpublic and private action. Thepaceofspecialization in philosoprTy^ riaturalscience, biology, and' the soclarsciences_Kas been so rapiTSiaTcolleagues onthetacuity o i a ~ single iihiversity , or even^members of a jjingle department, ojtencomplain_that theylcannot understandone another^ The unity of the intel-

fe and the harmonizin of sci-ence and practice have been underminedby these "centrifugal" forces.

For several years new trends towardintegration have been gaining strengthin America. In liberal arLs colleges the

more rigid curriculum, and surveycourses nave~been devised to introducethe student to broad fields of knowledgeand to prepare the way for a vision ofthe whole. At the level of research,mixed teams of specialists have beenassembled to work on common problemsin the hope of counteracting the dele-terious effects of an excessive atomiza-tion of knowledge. In the realm of pol-icy, more attention has been given toplanning, and to improving the infor-mation on which staff and operationaldecisions are based. We have becomemore aware of the policy process as asuitable object of study in its own right,primarily in the hope of improving therationality of the flow oj decision.

JA policy orientation/has been devel-oping" that cuts across the existing spe-cializations. The orientation is twofold.In part it is directed toward the policyj)rocess, and in^part towardjhe intelTJ7gence needs of jpolicyT The first tasK7"which is the development of a scienceof policy fqgming^ and execution, usestKemetnods of soeiaT^d"_psTChoIoglcaT

"Inquiryr The second task, which is meimproving of the concrete content of theinformation and the interpretationsavailable to policy-makers, typicallygoes outside the boundaries of social sci-ence and psychology.

In so iar,therefore., as the policyorientation is focused upon the scien-tific study of policy, it is narrower thanthe psychological and social sciences,which have many other objects of in-vestigation. However, where the needsof policy intelligence are uppermost, anyitem of knowledge, within or withoutthe limits of the social disciplines, may

THE continuing crisis of national secur-ity in which we live calls for the mostefficient use of the manpower, facilities,,and resources of the American people.Highly trained talent is always scarceand costly. Hence the crisis poses theproblem of utilizing our intellectualresources with the wSJesl- economy. IfOUT policy needs are to be served, whattopics of research are most worthy ofpursuit? What manpower and facilitiesshould be allocated to official agenciesand to private institutions for the prose-cution of research? What are the mostpromising methods of gathering factsand interpreting their significance forpolicy? How can facts and interpreta-tions be made effective in the decision-making process itself?

Although the importance of thesequestions is emphasized by the urgencyof national defense, they are in no sensenew. For years there has been a livelyconcern in intellectual circles for theproblem of overcoming the divisivetendencies of modern life and of bring-ing into existence a more thorough in-tegration of the goals and methods ofpublic and private action. Thepaceofspecialization in philosoprTy^ naturalscience, biology, and' the soclarsciences_Has been so rapiTSiaTcolleagijes onjhetacuity ot a single university, or even^"members of a jjingle department, ojten~complain that theYJcannot understandone another^ The unity of the intel-

fe and the harmonizin of sci-ence and practice have been underminedby these "centrifugal" forces.

For several years new trends towardintegration have been gaining strengthin America. In jiberal arLs colleges theelective system has been giving way to a

more rigid curriculum, and surveycourses nave~been Revised to introducethe student to broad fields of knowledgeand to prepare the way for a vision ofthe whole. At the level of research,mixed teams of specialists have beenassembled to work on common problemsin the hope of counteracting the dele-terious effects of an excessive atomiza-tion of knowledge. In the realm of pol-icy, more attention has been given toplanning, and to improving the infor-mation on which staff and operationaldecisions are based. We have becomemore aware of the policy process as asuitable object of study in its own right,primarily in the hope of improving therationality of the flow oj decision.

JA policy orientation/has been devel-oping" that cuts across the existing spe-cializations. The orientation is twofold.In part it is directed toward the policyj)rocess, and in^part towardjhe intelTJ7gence needs of jpolicyT The first tasK7"which is the development of a scienceof policy fqgming^ and execution, usestKemetnods of sociaT^d"_psTChoIoglcaT

"Inquiryr The second task, which is meimproving of the concrete content of theinformation and the interpretationsavailable to policy-makers, typicallygoes outside the boundaries of social sci-ence and psychology.

In so iar,therefore, as the policyorientation is focused upon the scien-tific study of policy, it is narrower thanthe psychological and social sciences,which have many other objects of in-vestigation. However, where the needsof policy intelligence are uppermost, anyitem of knowledge, within or withoutthe limits of the social disciplines, maybe relevant. We may need to know the

THE POLICY SCIENCES

harbor installations at Casablanca, orthe attitudes of a population of Pacificislanders to the Japanese, or the maxi-mum range of a fixed artillery piece.

We may use the term "policy sci-ences" for the purpose of designating thecontent of the policy orientation duringany given period. / The policy sciencesincludes (1) the methods by which thepolicy processors jnvesti_gate37 (2) Jtheresults oi the study of policy,jmd (3)

ot tajscrplines"makingthe.

intelligence : needs ofthe time. If we areto advance in our scientific grasp of thepolicy formation and execution processas a whole, it is obviously essential toapply and improve the methods bywhich psychological and social-scien-tific investigations are made. The pres-ent book therefore emphasizes develop-ments in research which are of unusualimportance for the understanding ofhuman choice. If the rationality of thepolicy process is to be improved, wemust single out the intelligence functionfor special study. To some extent thetask of improving the intelligence func-tion depends upon more effective tech-niques of communication, among re-search workers, policy advisers, and themakers of final decisions. Therefore thepolicy sciences are advanced wheneverthe methods are sharpened by whichauthentic information and responsibleinterpretations can be integrated withjudgment. To some extent the qualityof the intelligence function at any giventime depends upon the successful an-ticipation of policy needs before theyhave been generally recognized. Suc-cessful prediction depends upon thecultivation of certain patterns of think-ing. For instance, it is important toconsider the entire context of eventswhich may have an impact upon thefuture problems of policy. Hence theworld as a whole needs to be kept at thefocus of attention. It is also essentialto cultivate the practice of thinking of

the past and the future as parts of onecontext, and to make use of "develop-mental constructs" as tools for explor-ing the flow of events in time. An ex-ample of developmental thinking on aglobal scale is exemplified in this bookby the chapters which deal with thepotentialities of the "garrison state."

The^expressjc-n "policy sciences" isnot in general use in the United States,'afthougn itjs^ccurring more irequent^-now than before, r/erhaps iT should bepointed out that the term is not to betaken as a synonym for any expression

in current use among scholars. Jlanojher way of talking aboutjthe

sciences"'as~a whole, no^of theand psychological sciences."the "policy sciences" identical

with "applied social science'7 or "ap-pliedjjocial and psychological science?^As explained TTefore^the policy orienta-tion stresses but one of the many prob-lems which come within the properscope of the social sciences, and in-cludes the results of the social, psycho-logical, arid natural sciences in so far asthey have a bearing_gn the policy needsof a given period for adequate intelli-

^nNolj are the "policy sciences" to bethought of as largely identical withwhat is studied by the "political scien-

jists"the terra in common use for aca-domic tCticncrs 21^ernment. It is true that one group oPacademic political scientists wouldidentify the field with the study of power(in the sense of decision-making) .~~Butat present this is ITmmonty viewpoint.Many of the most valuable contribu-tions to a general theory of choice (in-cluding "decisions," defined as sanc-tioned choices) have been made bypersons who are not political scientists(in the academic division of labor).Examples are abundant, and includethe "rational theory of choice" (calledthe "theory of games") developed bythe mathematician von Neumann and

ORIENTATION

the economist Morgenstern, Amongthe contributors to the present volume,economists Arrow and Katona are par-ticularly concerned with the theory ofchoice. And it would not be difficult toname psychologists, anthropologists,and others who have specialized to afruitful degree upon the understandingof choice. * 1

The word Fpo&sy*tis commonly usedto designatethemost important choicesmade either in organized or in privatelife. We speak of "government policy,"

^business policy," oTT^nV"own policy""""''regarding investments and other mat-ters. Hence "policy" is free of many,-of the undesirable coDrjotatlons^clns-l_/,tered about tbe_word..potiticQJL, which is;'often believed to_ imply partisajjsHnor "corruption -"

When I speak of the "policy orienta-tion" in the United States I am empha-sizing what appears to be a dominantcurrent among many scholars andscientists, notably in the social sciences.The conception of the policy sciences isarising to give insight into these recenttrends and to aid in clarifying their fullpossibilities. The movement is not onlytoward a policy orientation, with a re-sulting growth in the policy sciences,but more specifically toward: the policysciences of democracy.

THE EMPHASIS ON METHODThe meaning of current developments

will be more apparent if we review thetrends between World War I and WorldWar II. The first of these wars was aturning point in the history of the socialand psychological sciences in the UnitedStates. Some of these disciplines madeconspicuous contributions to the prose-cution of the war. Others did not. Theproblem immediately arose of account-ing for the difference. The interwarevolution of the social sciences in theUnited States is largely to be explainedin terms of the answers to this question.

The most influential answer was this:tative methods were the ones that rosethe disciplines which possessed quanti-most rapidly in influence. Considerfrom this point of view the case of eco-nomics. Economists were extensivelyutilized to estimate the facilities, man-power7~and resources necessary to pro-duce the munitions required by thearmed forces and to supply men andmateriel where needed. Tjie^economicscientists jwho made. the. greatest direet-contribution employed mathematics andstatistics. They had method. And theywere guaiitiTaTtveT 'I 'Key could 'manipu-late data in the light of a system of gen-eral postulates, laws, and hypotheses.

Consider the psychologists. The mostsuccessful group used intelligencetests" as a quick means of selectingpersonnel for various operations. Im-mediately after World War I , the re-sults gained enormous publicity whenarticles appeared in which the remark-able assertion was made that most ofthe American army was "below averageintelligence." It took many years tostraighten out the misconceptions in thesensational reports originally made.Obviously the word "average" had en-tirely different meanings for the read-ing public and for the psychometricianswho created and applied the tests. How-ever, the publicity given to testing andpsychology greatly increased scientificand lay interest in the subject. Onceagain the success of the discipline ap-peared to depend upon the use of quan-titative methods. Intelligence tests wereevolved and applied with the aid of "sta7tistical procedures.

jThe rise _oj ! economists and psycho-melncTaTis^seemejloindicate "tEaT'THe

_dpser the "social scientist came~to~tEemethods of physical science thelnofgcertain his methods could_be of accept-_

Thispoint of view was emuha-sized by the scholar who took the mostimportant part in remolding the socialdisciplines, Charles E. Merriam, profes-

THE POLICY SCIENCES THE POLICY ORIENTATION

^ , ,

- "

sor of political science at theJOniversityof Chicago. Professor [jVIerriam/ tookthe initiative in organizing" the SocialScience Research Council, which is adelegate body of scholarly associationsin political science, economics, sociol-ogy, psychology, and other socialsciences. Merriam stressed the irn_--pr.rtflnf-o

nf bT-f-akinp; down the barriersthat-separate scholars from one another,^and of leveling-up methodological com^petence everywhere.' in a typical state-ment, made in 1925, he wrote in thepreface to his New Aspects of Politics:"It is . . . the purpose of this study. . . to suggest certain possibilities ofapproach to a method, in the hope thatothers may take up the task and throughreflection and experiment eventually in-troduce more intelligent and scientifictechniaueTnto the study and practice ofgovernment, and into popular~attitudes

"toward the governing process."1At the same time that steps were be-

ing taken at the national level to organ-ize the Sociai Science Research Council,leading universities were working outagencies for interdisciplinary research.At the University of Chicago, for ex-ample, field studies of the city of Chi-cago were made by the Local Com-munity Research Committee (latercalled the Social Science Research Com-mittee) . Joint programs were devel-oped at Columbia University andHarvard, University. An Institute ofHuman Relations was established at3l&-

The programs just referred to werefinanced in large part by the RockefellerFoundation and the Laura SpelmanRockefeller Memorial Fund, anotherRockefeller benefaction. One of themost imaginative and aggressive factorsin the program was Beardsley Ruml,who at various times was administra-tively active on both foundations.Ruml, it is worth noting, was a Ph.D.

' Charles E. Merriam, A'eto Aspects of Politics(1925), p. xiii.

in psychology, well-versed in statistics,"wKcTHada share ouring World War Iin the testing program of the Army.

The outlook of Merriam and his fel-low leaders of the postwar generation ismade explicit in many publicationswhich appeared during the nineteen-twenties. The interdisciplinary themeis prominent in A History oj PoliticalTheories: Recent Times, a volumeedited by Merriam and Professor HarryElmer Barnes, published in New Yorkin 1924. In addition to the politicalscientists who contributed to the sym-posium there were lawyers (E. M.Borchard and Caleb Perry Patterson),an economist (Paul H. Douglas), ahistorian (Carlton J. H. Hayes}. aphilosopher (Herbert W. Schneider),sociologists (Barnes, and Frank H.Hankins), a social psychologist(Charles Elmer Gehlke), an anthro-pologist (Alexander A. Goldenweiser),and a social geographer (FranklinThomas).

An evidence of the stress on methodwas the Committee on Scientific Methodwhich was appointed by the SocialScience Research Council and in 1931brought out Methods in Social Science:A Casebook, edited by Stuart A. Rice.The book was composed of fifty-twomethodological analyses of contribu-tions to the social sciences. The analystsincluded such authorities from manyfields as Robert E. Park and WilliamF. Oghurn (sociology) ; A. L. Kroeberand Edward Sapir (anthropology) ;John Maurice Clark and Frank H.Knight (economics); W. Y. Elliott andGeorge E. G. Gatlin (political science) ;Heinrich Kliiver and Robert S. \Xood-worth (psychology) : Floyd Allport andKJmbalf Young (social psychology) ;Philip Klein (social work) ; RaoulBlanchard and K. C. McMurry (socialgeography); and Henri Pirenne andSidney B. Fay (history).

Another means of stimulating inter-est in method was the post-doctoral fel-

lowship program of the Social ScienceResearch Council. The program wasdesigned to encourage young scholarsto improve their scientific equipmentby adding a new technique to their pri-mary specialization.

THE CONSEQUENCES OF DE-PRESSION AND WAR

It is against the background of stresson improving the sciences of man bysharpening the tools of research thatsubsequent developments need to be set.No one seriously doubts that the levelof technical excellence of American so-cial science rose between World War Iand "ft'orld War II despite the Depres-sion. When the second of the warscame, new disciplines were well enoughevolved to join the older specialties inmaking themselves felt.

Economics continued to make greatcontributions in the mobilization of theAmerican economy for World War II.It is generaify^agreed that the courage-ous forecasts and plans of a key groupof economists on the War ProductionBoard had a decisive impact on thetempo of effective participation by thiscountry. I refer particularly to the workof Stacy May. Simon Kuznets, RobertNathan, and their associates. (Kuznetswas one of Professor Wesley C. Mitch-ell's most productive associates in thestudy of business cycles at the NationalBureau of Economic Research.)

Psychologists were far more numer-oujs ancTerlective in World War II than'in thejprevious one. Besides develop-ments in intelligence testing, there hadbeen between the wars great advancesin measuring aptitudes and personalitystructure. Sociologists and social psy-chologists came more prominently intothe picture than in the first war. Pro-fessor Samuel A. Stouffer and his asso-ciates made continuous and systematicstudies of the attitudes prevailing amongmilitary personnel, utilizing and de-

veloping the quantitative proceduresevolved between the wars by ProfessorL. L. Thurstone and others.

In the light of the successesachieved,there is no reason to! doubtlthat thestress put upon quantitative method is

vindicated^. It will continue tbinspire ambitious young scholars in thefield of human relations. There are,however, grounds for forecasting asomewhat different emphasis amongsocial scientists in the coming years.The battle for method is won._ It is

""likely that social and psychologicalscientists will be sufficiently sure ofthemselves to take mptbm-l forand to put the emphasis on the choiceof "sjgm'ficant problems on which to ap-ply and evolve method. This is the pointat which considerations of policy comeinto the picture.

KNOWLEDGE FOR WHAT?Although the importance of quanti-

tative method was the dominant themein interwar social science, there weremany indications of rising preoccupa-tion with policy. A vigorous and earlyexponent of the policy approach wasProfessor Robert S. Lynd of ColumbiaUniversity, joint author of certainclassical community studies and longthe secretary of the Social Science Re-search Council. Professor Lynd gave aseries of lectures at Princeton Univers-ity in 1939 under the title "Knowledgefor What?" in which he insisted uponthe importance of utilizing all availablemeans of acquiring knowledge in orderto cope with the gigantic crises of ourtime.

The policy apprnarh is not to be_con-f oun ded with the superficial idea thatsocial scientists ought to desert science

"and^engage lull time in practicaltrtsTTNor should it be confused with thesuggestion that social scientists oughtto spend most of their time advisingpolicy-makers on immediate questions.

8 THE POLICY SCIENCES

Although it may be wise for scholarsto devote more time to active affairs,the most fruitful policy science idea isdifferent. The point is that all the re-sources of our expanding social scienceneed to be directed toward the basicconflicts in our civilization which are go"vividly jiisclgsed by the application_of' scienti5c_method to the"study~ot person -"aBty _and Culture. A fundamental pic-

ture of American culture and personal-ity has been drawn by the accumulatingresults of modern research by sociol-ogists, anthropologists, psychiatrists,and psychologists.

CHOOSING FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEMS

The basic emphasis of the policy ap-proach, therefore, is upjai the _ jf unda-mental problems oj man in _soci_ety_t_

"rather ^ han_u ponjthetopical issues ofthe moment. "The combinecTeflorts ol

workers have dis-closed roots of tension within ourcivilization of which we were previouslyunaware. The difficulties which weface in operating economic and politicalinstitutions are obvious to all. Whathas eluded scientific and policy attentionis a large number of the human factorswhich prevent the resolution of thesedifficulties by rational means. Build-ing on the work of Freud and otherpsychopathologists, Harry Stack Sulb-van and other_psychiatrists traced indetaiTThe fundamental ^ mp"ortance ofself-esteem for the healthy evolution ofhuman personality. Unless the infantand the child are able to love them-

^

others- . IriteTTerences with the growthof a healthy conception of the self leadto the warping of personality into de-structiveness. Sullivan and his associ-ates discovered that the true field of thepsychiatrist is not the isolated individ-ual organism but the context of inter-personal relations in which the indi-vidual lives. By studying the psychotic,

neurotic, and psychopathic manifesta-tions of distorted development, thesepsychiatrists discovered the way inwhich specific patterns of culture warpthe growth of congenial and productiveinterpersonal relations. Once discov-ered and exposed, these sources ofhuman destructiveness can be changed.The basis is laid for a profound recon-struction of culture by continual studyand emendation, and not by (or cer-tainly not alone by) the traditionalmethods of political agitation.

At an early date in his work, Dr.Sullivan and certain colleagues reachedout for co-operation with social scien-tists. The interplay of psychiatrists,child psychologists, anthropologists,and other social scientists has cast abrilliant light on the impact of cultureon personality formation. Among an-thropologists, for example, the contri-butions of Ruth Benedict, MargaretMead, Ralph Linton, and Clyde Kluck-hohn are representative of the best.2

THE USE OF MODELSThere is scarcely a corner of human

society that has not been seen in newperspective as a result of modern psy-chiatry. One significant feature of thisdevelopment is that while use is madeof careful observation, measurement,and record making, quantification is_relegatedtoa ^ relatively secondaryjiosi-

the

_

armquantitat ive ternis-Convincing'resuJts~carrEe obtained by studies whichare but partially summarized in num-bers. An excellent example of this type

BDr. Sullivan's work is best read in the pagesof Psychiatry, the journal published by tat Wil-liam AJanson While- Psychiatric Foundation, Wash-ington, D.C., with which Sullivan -was connectedbefore his death in 1949. Ruth Benedict was pro-fessor of anthropology at Columbia at the timeof her dealli in 1948. Her most influential bookwas Patterns oj Culture (1934). Margaiet Meadand Clyde Kluckhohn are conlributors to thepresent volume. For an introduction to Linton. seeLinton (ed.). The Science of Man in the WorldCrisis (1945).

THE POLICY ORIENTATION

of contribution to science and policy isthe report by Alexander Leighton onhuman relations in a relocation campfor "Japanese" operated by the UnitedStates government during the last war.3

The problem of dealing with com-plex relationships has given to manysocial scientists more insight into thecreative use of models in scientific work.The models majTbe in^roseTand.theycan be long or short. The models maybe in mathematical notation and, if so,they may be related to magnitudeswhich can or cannot be measured.(Professor Arrow deals with the func-tion of scientific models in his chapterin the present book.) Social scientistsand psychiatrists have always derivedtheir most fruitful hypotheses fromrather complicated models. Good ex-amples are the conceptions put forwardby Freud of the oral, anal, and genitaltypes of personality; or the types ofleaders and power relations describedby Max Weber, who wrote at someterigth~on~~tbe methodological jx?le of"idealtypes."' When one thinks inTJasicpolicy terms, it is essential tooperate with models whose elaborationis sufficient to enable the investigatorto deal with complex institutional situ-ations.

The significance that revised modelshave for science and policy was strik-ingly exemplified in the nincteen-thirties. The New Deal of Franklin D.Rooseveitwas a brilliant success in thesense that a far-reaching economiccrisiswas- met by "policies which_\verefarsliort_of the: ^uthOTitananmeasuresofITTascigt or CommunjststateT^l'his:re-sult was^chTeved7~mparf, because ofthe aid which the government receivedfrom economists, many of whom hadbeen liberated from the cramping doc-trines of classical economic analysis bythe ideas of Alvin Hansen in the UnitedStates and of John Maynard Keynes inEngland. There was nothing new about

3 The Governing oj Men (1945).

the general idea that the governmentought to do something if a mass un-employment crisis developed. But theidea had no rational roots in the pre-vailing conception among economistsof how the free market system operated.Recurring depressions were thought ofsimply as "frictions" within the system,and government action was grudginglyj ustified when it was accepted at allas a means of dealing with miscella-neous "frictions." The Keynes-Hansenapproach was very different. Instead ofdismissing prolonged mass unemploy-ment as a result of frictions, Keynes andHansen showed that unemploymentcould result from the structure of thefree economy itself. If left to themselves,private economic choices might per-petuate the underuse of labor insteadof initiating new enterprises to absorblabor. The implications for public pol-icy were^ lobvi'ous : Sovc rumenvention is essential in order to elimi-n"ate~uhempl6ymeDt and to"" set in mo^tion once more trie forces of the freemarket.

This was a remarkable example ofthe creative results which may follow,not when new quantifications are made,but when new models of institutionalprocesses are devised, models whichcan unify quantitative and nonquanti-tative observations and point the wayto new empirical, theoretical, and policyactivities.*

THE CLARIFICATION OF GOALSThe policy-science approach not only

puts the emphasis npori_ basic problems.and complex models, but also calls fortha very cojnsiderable'"c|arincatioh of _thevaluegoals involved _in policy. After

~an, in what sensels a problem "basic"?Evaluations depend upon postulatesabout the human relations to be calleddesirable. For purposes of analysis theterm "value" is taken to mean "a cate-

*Note the following title: E. Ronald Walker,From Economic Theory to Policy (1943).

10 THE POLICY SCIENCES THE POLICY ORIENTATION 11

gory of preferred events," such as peacerather than war, high levels of produc-tive employment rather than mass un-employment, democrocy rather thandespotism, and congenial and produc-tive personalities rather than destructiveones.

When the scientist is reminded toquickly

has been shaped in a culture

heory and fact. On the doctrinal level,"there is theUemand to achieve a worldcommunity in which the dignity of manis realized in theory and fact. There isalso the contradictory demand to makethe world safe for "Aryan" or whitesupremacy. In a word, there are legaciesfrom the world of caste which prevailedbefore the French and American revo-lutions gave impetus to the idea of so-cial mobility on the basis oi individualmerit.

THE POLICY SCIENCES OFDEMOCRACY

It is, I think, safe to forecast that thepolicy-science approach will bringabout a series of "special" scienceswithin the general field of the socialsciences, much as the_desire Joj:ure hasdeveloped a science of medicine^which

~is^distmcTlrom, though connected with,the general science oi. hiology. In the

TJmtetl StatesTtheTnature^i such specialsciences can already be discerned. Thedominant American tradition affirmsthe dignity of man, not the superiorityof one set of men. Hence it is to beforeseen that the emphasis will be uponthe development of knowledge pertinentto the fwBer realization of human dig-nfeyT'Tet'jus' lor convenience call Jhis

of the "policy sciences of democracy." Abundant indications areathandlo'lend weight to this suggestion.

A glaring discrepancy between doc-trine and practice in the United States

is the mistreatment of Negroes and othercolored peoples. The Carnegie Foun-dation supported a comprehensive sur-vey of trends in ethnic relations in theUnited States. The purpose was to dis-close the true state of affairs, to dis-cover the conditioning factors, and tostimulate policies against discrimina-tion. An American Dilemma: TheNegro Problem and Modern De-mocracy, edited by Gunnar Myrdal in1944, was the outcome.

The initiative for problem-orientedinquiries has been taken not only byprivate foundations but also by privateassociations of businessmen. Perhapsthe most successful example is the Com-mittee for Economic Development whichwas organized early in World War IIin order to develop policies whichwould avoid or mitigate a postwardepression in the United States. Theresearch program was carried out by astaff of eminent economists headed byProfessor Theodore 0. Yntema of theUniversity of Chicago. On the basis^p'fstaff studies which were published, thebusinessmen made policy suggestions tothe government and to private organiza-tions and individuals. Since the war theCommittee for Economic Developmenthas been continued for the purpose ofdeveloping long-range researches andrecommendations for the maintenanceof a free-market economy. (The figuremost prominently associated with theCommittee is its initiator and first head,Paul G. Hoffman.)

THE AWARENESS OF TIMEThe policy orientation- carries with

it a sharpened sense of time.

12 THE POLICY SCIENCES THE POLICY ORIENTATION 13chapter to present in detail develop-mental hypotheses about the world revo-lution of our time. In passing, however,it is templing to remark that a dis-tinction needs to be drawn between thepattern of the eruptive center oj a worldrevolutionary movement- and the pat-tern of the world revolution of anepoch. Those who seized power inParis in 1739 (and immediately there-after) were unmistakably the elite ofthe eruptive center of that period. Butthe pattern which prevailed at thattime and place was not identical withthe revolutionary pattern of the histor-ical epoch as a whole, although commonelements were present. It is apparentthat the elite oj^ 1917 in Moscow can becalled the~elite of the exup^jy f^fer >-,$our time, but it is very doubtful whether

The pattern then prevailing in Moscowhas many elements identical with theworld revolutionary pattern of ourepoch. Indeed, one of the major tasksof the policy sciences today is to followin detail the processes of social inven-tion, diffusion, and restriction through-out the globe for the sake of estimat-ing the significance of specific events.5

THE PROBLEM ATTITUDEAn additional feature of the policy

orientation is the importance attachedto the act of creativeimagination thatJRtrtKJuces rMo^iehistoricaLproccss anew and successful policy. SuccessfulTtJeas cannot be guaranteed in advance.But .idTe^pj^blenialtitude^ can be culti-vated, which increases the probabilitythat the thinker will act as a maternityhospital for the delivery of a historicallyviable policy proposal. Today the per-

EI mar be permitted to icier to my own -writ-ings in whkh certain of these distinctions havebeen developed. Th& earliest exposition is inWorld PoLiiics and Personal insecurity (1935).More accessible is The Analysis oj Political Be-haviour: An Empirical Approach, published in1948 in the "International Library of Sociology andSoaal Reconstruction" edited by Karl Mannheim.See particularly Part II. My 1941 developmentalConstruct of "the garrison state" is reprinted inThe Analysis oj Political Behaviour.

petual crisis stemming from the expec-tation of violence (whether war orrevolution) calls for the greatest inge-nuity in devising policies [capable of re-itucing the cost of bringing to fruition'thealms 'oFa democratically orientedj)oiiCYj3ctence. This is not only a matter~of improving the organization of theUnited Nations and other official agen-cies. It is also a question of introducinga current of salutary transformationswherever policy is made.

THE BUILDING OF INSTITUTIONSThe policy scientist is far more in-

terested in evaluating and reconstruct-ing the practices of society than in hisprivate ratiocination about the higherabstractions from which his values arederived. This choice carries with it thede-emphasizing of rniKJl, nf J-tir tr^'tional _baggag-j3f _ metaphysics andtheology. An example of what may heexpected is the worjc j3J Jojm_Beweyand other American pmTosophers ofpragmatism whojquickly rnoved lo thg_

diQn of "gpf.iflfl_("Dewey, for instance, launched an ex-perimental school movement.) This in-TKnatiorT of the policy scientist has beenexpedited by the logical positivism ofRudolf Carnap and his associates, al-though Carnap has not personallydrawn the implications. However, someimplications are reasonably evident. Ifterms are intended to designate events,they do not have stable reference until"operational indexes" are specified. In-dexes are operational when they can beapplied by _an observer jjvith descjjplJY~.intentions.coinpetencer qpd equipment,

"wUcT occupies an observational stand-point m relatiorn:o a field of events to^

"EtTdescribed. The observational stand--pornT "is the procedure used in enteringthe situation for data-gathering ("pro-tocol-making") purposes.6

"Besides Carnap and his school, Alfred Kor-zybski has been v/klcly read. See bis Science andSanity (1933).

t)

The key terms which are used in thepolicy sciences refer to meanings, andcontexts of meaning are changeable.The significance of this is that oper-ational indexes chosen for key words inthe social sciences are less_stable thanthe indexes usually employed bv_jshys;i_leal scientists tpTJescribejhe events with~wHjchlhey are concerned. Hence wespeak of the "index instability" of termsin the policy sciences.

Since operational indexes are un-stable, it is necessary to provide for con-tinuous surveys in order to keep opera-tional indexes properly calibrated. Theobservable characteristics of certainclass groups shift through time, for ex-ample, and it is therefore necessary torespecify the characteristics which areessential to the identification for de-scriptive purposes of a given classmember,

The technical considerations whichhave just been outlined reinforce otherincentives which induce social andpsychological scientists to improve in-stitutions for the self-observation ofman in society. One of the most cre-ative suggestions which has been madeby and to UNESCO, for instance, isthe setting up of a continuing surveyof international tension. Activities ofthis kind are essential if we are toclarify the goals, trends, factors, andalternatives appropriate to the policysciences of democracy.

The international polling operationswhich are now in existence are im-portant steps toward providing moresignificant information than we havehad in the past about the thoughts andfeelings of mankind.

Closely connected with the setting-up of comprehensive institutions ofself-observation is the use of pretestingprocedures to assist in the evaluation ofpolicy alternatives. In the world ofbusiness, pretesting has been carried toa high level of technical perfection.Minor variations in the ingredients of

new products or changes in packagingare tested in a few places which providesamples (in the statistical sense) of po-tential consumer reactions. Personnelpolicies are sometimes pretested in afew plants before they are extended toall the plants controlled by a corpora-tion. Systematic pretesting can be ex-tended from the market to many othersituations in society.

SOCIAL SCIENTISTS ARE NOT THESOLE CONTRIBUTORS TO THE

POLICY SCIENCESOne outcome of the policy science

conception which has begun to mani-fest itself in the United States is a moreexplicit awareness of the fact that socialscientists are not the only contributorsto the policy sciences. It is true thatspecialists in social and psychologicaltheory will improve the basic analysisof the policy-forming process itself.But there is some recognition of thefact that men of experience in activepolicy-making can make greater contri-butions to basic analysis than the aca-demic experts have admitted. Men ofaffairs often watch themselves aridothers in business, government, andsimilar institutions with great intel-lectual curiosity and objectivity. Someof these active participants evolvetheories of the process that deserve care-ful criticism in the light not only of ex-pert opinion hut also of factual inquiry.Usually the men_ol actiorLlack the in-

"ceiitTves~ toarticles in which_their_theorjfs are_a^s.-

'tcmatizeaand confronted by availabledata.7 But it is enormously fruitful forthe academic specialist to take some ofthese ideas and give them the necessarysystematization and evaluation.

1 Chester Bamard_is _a exception to this state-

meri'tr-While in" acTTv'c'Tlnsine'gs'einiciilivc he pub-lished the well-received The Functions of theExecutive (1933). Barnard is now president of theRockefeller Foundation. The Committee on PublicAdministration Cases (Social Science ResearchCouncil) has built up case studies of policyformation by examining written records, and alsoby interviewing the parlicipants.

14 THE POLICY SCIENCES

In order to bring the academicianand the active policy-maker into fruit-ful association, new institutions areneeded (or rather, modifications are

jrjeeSecTin existing institutions). Theseminayis already utilized for this pur-

pose In many institutions of higherlearning, as in the Graduate School ofBusiness and the Littauer School (de-voted to government) at Harvard.Many national organizations of publicadministrators maintain headquartersclose to the University of Chicago, anarrangement that fosters contact be-tween t h e f a c u U v f - h e U n i v C Tthe staffrnemben^of the organizations.TJecause~bi~ihe rapid growth of publicadministration as a learned professionin the United States, the interplay ofuniversity-trained intellectuals and put-lie officials (and leaders) is made easy.Until recently the law schools of theUnited States were wholly given overto the narrowest imaginable conceptionof professional training. The curric-ulum consisted in the memorizing anddiscussion of the decisions (and sup-porting opinions) of the appellatecourts. In recent times there has beena broadening of the curriculum to in-clude factual information about thesocial consequences of legal doctrinesand procedures. The Yale Law Schoolhas been a pioneer in this change, evento the extent of appointing social scien-tists to the faculty.

The policy-science approach has thefurther implication that it includes, inaddition to knowledge about the policy-making process itself, the assemblingand evaluating of knowledge fromwhatever source which appears tohave an important bearing upon themajor policy problems of the time. To-day, for example, thg know^pi-lgp __qf_atomic jmd other forms of energy which_

Ts i "in the possession j>f 'the physicistsarid other natural scientists has greatancl obviousrelevance to world security.Creative interchange is needed between

the physicists, the social scientists, andthe men af action.*/ The cultivation of

'fhe~TechnjcjUe^trf~T)ringing about easyco-operation among "interdisciplinaryteams" is one of the principal tasks ofan evolving policy science.

SUMMARYBetween the two world wars, Amer-

ican social and psychological sciencesemphasized the improvement ofmethod, especially quantitative method.There resulted a general raising of thelevel of competence in the making ofprimary observations and in the pro-cessing of cJata^. Recently there is a tend-ency to takejmethod igiore f or grantedand to put iTip JUV-PTI|; upon applyingmethod to problems that promise to

"make a contribution to policy. We canthink of the policy sciences as the disci-plines concerned with explaining thepolicy-making and policy-executingprocess, and with locating data andproviding interpretations which arerelevant to the policy problems of agiven period. The policy approach doesliet imply that energy is to be dissi-jjal&cjjjn a mjscellany!__Qi-iaezeb' topicalissues, but rathe^jhat, fundamental and _"oitenrieglected problems which arise inthe adjustment of man in society are tobe dealLvvith. The policy approachdc^snpMnean that the ^scientist aban-dm^objectivity^iiLj^athfiXJng; or inter-preting data, or ceases to perfect his

" ^inquiry_T "The^ policy emphasisTa1tsToTlKechoice of problems whichwill contribute to theT"goa1rvame3~o

use of s

executing the projects under-Takeii. The policy frameolT'eferencemakes it necessary to take into accountthe entire context of significant events(past, present, and prospective) inwhich the scientist is living. This calls

8 Successes and failures along \his line are often

noted iu The Bulletin ot Atomic Scientists, pub-lished in Chicago.

THE POLICY ORIENTATION 15for the use of speculative models of theworld revolutionary process of theepoch, and puts the techniques of quan-tification in a respected though subordi-nate place. Because of the instability ofmeaning of the indexes available to giveoperational definition to key terms, itis particularly important to develop

f specialized institutions to observeanjjJL^reporT"\vol-ldrcrevcIopments. ~Thls~per- '

mits the pretesting of possible changes -

in social practice before they are intro-duced on a vast scale. It is probablethat the policy-science orientation inthe United States will be directed to-ward providing the knowledge neededto improve the practice of democracy.In a word, the special emphasis is uponthe policy sciences of democracy, inwhich the ultimate goal is thetion of human dignity in theory and-fact. ' ~

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