Population and sustainable development in the context of the post-2015 UN

development agenda

David LamDepartment of Economics

and Population Studies CenterUniversity of Michigan

United Nations Commission on Population and Development8 April 2014

How will population affect development from 2015 to 2030?

• According to UN Medium Variant projections:– The world will add 1.1 billion people– Asia will add 500 million– Sub-Saharan Africa will add 419 million

• How does this compare to previous 15-year periods?

Addition to world population for 15-year periods, 1955-2045

1.101.20

1.101.26 1.20

1.101.171.26 1.20

1.100.93

1.171.26 1.20

1.100.93

1.171.26 1.20

1.10

0.88

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Bill

ion

Percentage increase in world population for 15-year periods, 1955-2045

15.0%

33.7% 31.8%

26.0%

19.5%15.0%

10.5%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%

Per

cent

age

Incr

ease

1960: 3 Billion

1974: 4 Billion

1987: 5 Billion

1999: 6 Billion

2011: 7 Billion

02468

1012141618

1850 1950 2050

World population

From 1950: UN World Population Prospects: 2012 revision

From 1960:World population doubled in 39 yearsThe world added 4 billion people in 51 yearsThis will almost surely never happen

again

1960: 3 Billion

1974: 4 Billion

1987: 5 Billion

1999: 6 Billion

2011: 7 Billion

10.9 Billion

16.6 Billion

6.8 Billion

02468

1012141618

1850 1950 2050

U.N. projections of world population to 2100High, Medium, and Low Variants

From 1950: UN World Population Prospects: 2012 revision

0.11%

-0.70%

0.78%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Annual growth rate of world population

Pre-1950 estimates

20101.18%

19682.08%

UN estimates and projections

UN Population Division Estimates - 2012 revision

05

101520253035404550

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Crude Birth Rate

Crude Death Rate

Rate of Natural Increase

Demographic Transition

World, 1950-2015

per 1000 population

05

101520253035404550

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Crude Birth Rate

Crude Death Rate

Rate of Natural Increase

Demographic TransitionSoutheast Asia

per 1000 population

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Birth rate

Death rate

Rate of Natural Increase

Demographic TransitionSub-Saharan Africa

per 1000 population

Overview of last 50 years• World population grew faster than it has

ever grown before or ever will grow again.• Broadly similar patterns of population

change across developing countries.– Key exception is slower fertility decline in

Sub-Saharan Africa• This period should be important in

understanding links between population and development.

What happened to food availability during this period of

unprecedented population growth?

344

230

150

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

World Food Production1961-2012(1961=100)

Food and Agriculture Organization

422

284

149

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

South Asia Food Production1961-2012(1961=100)

Food and Agriculture Organization

430

371

116

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Africa Food Production1961-2012(1961=100)

Food and Agriculture Organization

What has happened to poverty?

20.6%

40.7%

0102030405060708090

100

19811984198719901993199619992002200520082011

Percent in Poverty, 1981-2010Low and Middle Income Countries

< $2.00 per day

< $1.25 per day

World Bank estimates

12.55.5

31.0

48.5

0102030405060708090

100

19811984198719901993199619992002200520082011

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Asia

East Asia

Latin America

Percent in Poverty by Region, 1981-2010

<$1.25 per day

World Bank estimates

1.3

2.5

1.1

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

Number in Poverty (Billions)Low and Middle Income Countries

< $2.00 per day

< $1.25 per day

< $1.25 per day (excluding China)

World Bank estimates

What has happened to education in

developing countries?

64%72%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990Year age 10

Percentage of cohort with primary schooling, Brazil

Female

Male

Census data via IPUMS-International

Note that school-aged population grew at close to 4% per year for much of this period

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

1

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990Year age 10

Proportion of cohort with primary schooling, Thailand Femal

e

Male

Census data via IPUMS-International

22

Similar patters are seen in all regions, including Africa – rapid increases in schooling, with narrowing of gender gap

Fertility decline and investments in children

• Increase in education is directly related to declines in fertility

• Transition from large numbers of children with low investments to smaller families with higher investments

• This is a major component of economic development

Lessons of last 50 years• Unprecedented population growth did not lead to

increases in starvation or poverty or stagnation in education

• Reasons – Major technological advances– Market responses– Globalization– Declines in fertility, increases in education

• Many caveats:– Unequal outcomes across countries and within

countries– Environmental problems, climate change– Recent increases in commodity prices

Post-2015 Demographic Change

• Demography of children and youth• Demography of working-age population• Regional variation• Implications for Post-2015 Development

Goals

0123456789

10

19501960197019801990200020102020203020402050

Bill

ion

Medium variant projections

Working age (15-64)

Children (0-14)

65+World population by

age, 1950-2050

0123456789

10

2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Bill

ion

Middle working age (25-44)

Children (0-14)

65+

World population by age, 2015-2030

Older working age (45-64)

Youth (15-24)

+0.08 (4.0%)

+0.09 (7.3%)

+0.20 (9.4%)

+0.37 (24.8%)

+0.37 (61.0%)

Total increase=1.1 billion (15.0%)

Increase in population 0-14 over 15 year periods

41%

54%

47%49%

18%

26%

19%

56%

12%10% 10%

46%

3%

-3%-5%

44%

4%

-6% -5%

32%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

World LatinAmerica

Asia SS Africa

1955-19701970-19851985-2000

Implications for development goals 2015-2030

• Rate of growth of child population is much lower than in previous decades.– This should make it easier to make further

progress on goals such as reduction of child mortality, universal primary education

– Some regions, including Sub-Saharan Africa, will continue to have rapid growth of children and youth populations (but at lower rates than previous periods)

Population and employment, 2015-2030

David Lam and Murray Leibbrandt, “Global Demographic Trends and Their Implications for Employment,”

background paper prepared for the High Level Panel on the Post-2015

Development Agenda, May 2013

Increase in working-age population (15-64)over 15 year periods

29%

45%

33%

38%39%

51%

47% 47%

32%

41%

36%

54%

25%27% 26%

52%

14% 14%11%

53%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

World LatinAmerica

Asia SS Africa

1955-19701970-19851985-2000

Growth of working-age population, 2015-2030

14% 14% 11%

53%

7%

-4% -1%

46%

9% 11%5%

53%

25%

34%27%

65%

-10%0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%

Total 15-24 25-44 45-64

Demography of labor market 2015-2030

• The world’s working-age population will increase by 650 million, a 14% increase– We will need over 40 million jobs per year to

maintain current employment rates– Sub-Saharan Africa will need 1.6 million new jobs

per month by 2025-2030• This is a challenge, but:

– Working-age population increased by 960 million between 2000 and 2015, an increase of 25%

– Youth component is growing at a slower rate than overall working-age population in all regions

Population and Development 2015-2030

• Reasons for optimism– The world experienced its largest improvements in

standards of living during a period of even more rapid population growth

– Child and youth populations have stopped growing in most regions, relieving pressure on health services, schools, and youth employment

• Remaining challenges– Continued rapid growth of children and youth in some

regions mean that we will need increased investments in child health, schooling, and employment creation

– An extra 1.1 billion people will continue to put pressure on resources and environment,