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8/8/2019 Keith Denholm ICCCForum 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/keith-denholm-icccforum-2010 1/20
Forward Freight Outlook
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EAGLE BULK SHIPPING INC. 2
Forward Looking Statements
This presentation contains certain statements that may be deemed to be “forward-looking statements”
within the meaning of the Securities Acts. Forward-looking statements reflect management’s currentviews with respect to future events and financial performance and may include statements concerningplans, objectives, goals, strategies, future events or performance, and underlying assumptions andother statements, which are other than statements of historical facts. The forward-looking statementsin this presentation are based upon various assumptions, many of which are based, in turn, uponfurther assumptions, including without limitation, management's examination of historical operatingtrends, data contained in our records and other data available from third parties. Although Eagle BulkShipping Inc. believes that these assumptions were reasonable when made, because theseassumptions are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies which are difficult or impossible to predict and are beyond our control, Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. cannot assure you that itwill achieve or accomplish these expectations, beliefs or projections. Important factors that, in our view, could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed in the forward-lookingstatements include the strength of world economies and currencies, general market conditions,including changes in charterhire rates and vessel values, changes in demand that may affect attitudesof time charterers to scheduled and unscheduled drydocking, changes in our vessel operatingexpenses, including dry-docking and insurance costs, or actions taken by regulatory authorities, abilityof our counterparties to perform their obligations under sales agreements, charter contracts, and other
agreements on a timely basis, potential liability from future litigation, domestic and internationalpolitical conditions, potential disruption of shipping routes due to accidents and political events or actsby terrorists. Risks and uncertainties are further described in reports filed by Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc.with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
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EAGLE BULK SHIPPING INC. 4
China remains the main driver.
!!Rise of discretionary consumer & how to boost domestic consumption
!!Ground swell of wealth in remote communities. Expenditure very strong – Hidden incomes (investments, rental fromhouse, part time work, others) very large
!!Land is sold and traded a lot more rapidly than in past – Bigger farms (consolidation) bigger machinery and greater efficiency
!!Rural construction – trade in houses in rural villages going ahead rapidly. Cost of rural housing permit up 15 times from5 yrs ago.
!!Migrant workers income has risen 30%. If they are sending 50% back home then approx 750 billion RMB heading back
to the rural areas
!!850 Billion RMB being spent on healthcare as well as Beijing investing in education and pensions in order for workers tohave more in their pockets in take home pay to spend on appliances etc
!!Car sales growth up 40% (many buying Lexus, Audi A8, BMW 7 series, Mercedes S Class)
!!Energy Efficiency targets before end of current 5 year plan have been met. Beijing has therefore released the energyrestrictions which will in turn boost Aluminium and Steel making capacity.
!!Congestion from the inner Mongolian mines well documented. As part of the 12th five year plan, Beijing wants to buildpower plants closer to the mines and then link with a new more extensive grid which they intend to put underground.
!!2011 Chinese growth should be around 9.4% with 4.4% coming from investments and 4.6% coming from domesticconsumption and 0.4% from exports
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EAGLE BULK SHIPPING INC. 5
Source: Bloomberg, Citi, Clarksons, ICAP, Peabody
"! Coal continues to dominate drybulk trade.
"! Indian imports up 30% YTD.
"! China’s net-imports up 60% YTD.
"! Richards Bay (South Africa) posted recordexports in October of 7.4m tons, stockpilesdepleted by 32%.
"! Global steel production robust."! Steel prices up over 10% since July, YTD
production up 21% Y/Y.
"! Chinese iron ore imports at 5-month high.
"! End of Indian monsoon season should lead toincreased Indian iron ore exports to China.
Current Demand Dynamics for Drybulk Strong
Industrial Countries GDP Growth
YTD Average Supramax Rates up 44% Y/Y
AUD/USD Exchange Rate
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EAGLE BULK SHIPPING INC. 6
Source: Lloyds List, Peabody, Reuters, XStrata
"! Coal-fueled power generation up 19% YTD.
"! Steel production is up 15% YTD.
"! China is the world’s largest producer andconsumer of coal but supply growth is limited.
"! High cost / poor quality relative tointernational supplies.
"! Poor infrastructure between producingand consuming provinces.
"! Recurring traffic jams caused by
trucks carrying coal from Inner Mongolia causing supplybottlenecks. In September, morethan 10,000 trucks were stuck in a75m traffic jam.
China’s Appetite for Foreign Coal to Increase
Intra-China Seaborne Coal Trade
"! Projected at 600m tons for 2010, up 25% Y/Y."! Assuming average cargo size of 40k
tons, total annual trade equates to 15kvoyages, or over 800 Sub-Panamaxes.
coal
demand
coalreserves
Positive for Ton-mile Demand
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EAGLE BULK SHIPPING INC. 7
Source: CNEA, IEA, Reuters, Wood Mackenzie
Seaborne Coal Demand Remains Very Strong
Projected Thermal and Met Coal Seaborne Demand
Coal-Fueled Power Capacity Under Construction
Seaborne Trade to Increase 40% by 2015, Double by 2025
"! Australian port congestion limiting short-to-medium term export growth.
"! Indonesian export supply availability is subjectto internal requirements being met first.
"! Domestic miners will be required to sell aminimum of 24% of aggregate productionto local market in 2011.
"! Indonesian coal consumption projectedat 79m tons in 2011, up 22% Y/Y.
"! Quality concerns relating to incrementalsupplies requiring additional tonnage togenerate the same energy as the lower volumes of higher grade coal.
"! Importers (India, Japan, China, and Other Asia) are needing to source product fromalternative (and more distant) regions.
"! South Africa, Colombia, North America
"! Russia, Mozambique (expected in 2h11)
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EAGLE BULK SHIPPING INC. 8
Source: CBOT, Clarksons, CNGOIC, WSJ
China’s Improving Standard of Living Will Drive L/T Demand for Agricultural Products
Increasing Ton-mile Demand for Grain Trade
Soybean Futures($ per bushel)
Chinese Grain Trade(m MT)
"! Russian (FSU) drought has destroyed itscrop for the current year and impeded
planting of winter grain; this may lead to apoor harvest for 2011.
"! Russia’s domestic supplies may notcover its own consumption.
"! Substitute supplies for Russian exportsincreasing ton-miles.
"! Chinese soybean imports for 2010 projectedat 54m tons, up 27% Y/Y.
"! Soybean prices up 30% in 3 months."! Incremental supplies coming from Brazil
and the U.S.
"! Increasing interest to secure resourceshighlights the positive fundamentals.
"! Potash Corp. is up over 50% sinceBHP’s bid was announced.
"! Vale looking to raise cash for further
investment in its fertilizer business.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010e
Exports
Imports
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EAGLE BULK SHIPPING INC.
Widening trade imbalances
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
M i l l i o n t o n n e s
Brazil-Far East (iron ore) Australia-Europe (ore & coal)
Source: SSY
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EAGLE BULK SHIPPING INC.
US inbound and outbound cargoes: tradeimbalance increases ballasting
28 Mt
140 Mt
Source: SSY
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EAGLE BULK SHIPPING INC. 11
Inefficient trading pattern
Shanghai
Rotterdam
Santos
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EAGLE BULK SHIPPING INC.
Ballast from Far East vs Fronthaul levels &Congestion
12
BallastDays
CongestionDays
BallastConsumption
Bunker Price
TotalBunker
BallastCost
TimeCharter
Hire
TotalHire
ballastcost
Total Waiting /Congestion
cost
Total Cost
Shangahi /Santos
36.00 30.00 33 mt $475 $564,300 $20,000 $720,000 $600,000 $1,320,000
Rotterdam /
Santos
17.50 30.00 33 mt $475 $274,312 $40,000 $700,000 $1,200,000 $1,900,000
Savings $580,000
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EAGLE BULK SHIPPING INC.
Existing LocksProposed Locks
Length of chamber 427m (1,400’)
Max Length of ship 385.8m (1,265’)
Length of chamber 305m (1,000’)
Max Length of ship 294.3m (965’)
54.9m (180’)
3m
(10’)
15.3m(50’)
48.8m (160’)
33.5m (110’)
0.6m(2’)
12m(39.5’)
32m (106’)
Lock chambers will be 427 meters (1,400 feet) long by 55 meters (180 feet) wide, and 18.3meters (60 feet) deep.
Construction for the project began in 2007. The new locks will be open for transit at thebeginning of 2015
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EAGLE BULK SHIPPING INC.
Panama Canal Transit Savings in voyage duration
14
14,482 Nautical Miles = 46.42 Days
10,489 Nautical Miles = 33.62 Days
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EAGLE BULK SHIPPING INC.
Vale’s China-max strategy: game-changer for thecapesize market?
"!Vale to control 35/36 new built China-max vessels of approx 400,000 dwt plus fleet of 12converted VLCCs of approx 300,000 dwt, as well as existing owned/chartered
conventional capes
"! Dedicated VLOC fleet capable of carrying 65-70 Mt year of fronthaul iron ore cargoes with
potential to add in order to reduce transportation costs and increase competitiveness on a
delivered basis.
"! Improving the logistics efficiency between its mines and customers.
"! Supplemented by Asian-backed orders for 300/320 kdwt VLOCs (+30-35 Mt/yr)
"! China-maxes require new terminals in China and trans-shipment centre in Malaysia
"! Positive for smaller sizes shuttling to smaller steel mills from S.E.Asia to China?
Source: SSY
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EAGLE BULK SHIPPING INC. 16
Fleet Supply
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EAGLE BULK SHIPPING INC.
Cape spot freight as a share of delivered cost of Newcastle coal in Japan
"! Freight is now less of a factor in the sale of commodities compared to a few years ago.
Source: SSY
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EAGLE BULK SHIPPING INC. 19
Poor Port Infrastructure Yields Congestion
Capesize Congestion Calculator
-One vessel =7 voyages per year.-Seven voyages =14 ports of call.-Assume 3 days delay per vessel for load/discharge-(14 ports of call) * (3 delay days) =42 delay days
-(42 delay days) * (1,103 vessels) =46,326 delay days
-(46,326 delay days) / 365 = 127 vessels-127 vessels =11.5% of fleet / annum
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Fair Winds and Following Seas!
Keith DenholmEagle Shipping International
477 Madison AvenueNew York, NY 10022USA
Email: [email protected]