Katy I.S.D.Katy I.S.D. has ranked 8 thor 9 for at least the last 5 years 2015-16 STAAR Results 3rd-8th Grade (Districts w/>20,000 Students) 2015-16 Level II 2013-14 Level II 2012-13

Katy I.S.D.Demographic Update

October 24, 2016

94

2

13

16 15

22

13

94 1

61

7

19

17

19

67

24

60

27

56

23

10

22

52

25

30

36

01

29

54 3

20

1

24

60

22

16

17

25

15

89

21

70

26

51

31

17

24

95

25

73

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Student Gain

Student Gain per Year 1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

Population & Survey Analysts

Katy I.S.D. Demographic Trends

Employment Trends

Housing Projections

Ratios: Students per Household

Projected Student Enrollment

Highest Growth Districts2015 PEIMS, Based on Numeric Gain in Students

Numeric Percent

1 FRISCO ISD 49,644 53,300 3,656 7.4%

2 KATY ISD 70,330 72,952 2,622 3.7%

3 CONROE ISD 56,363 58,239 1,876 3.3%

4 NORTHSIDE ISD 103,606 105,110 1,504 1.5%

5 LAMAR CISD 28,332 29,692 1,360 4.8%

6 ALVIN ISD 20,866 22,183 1,317 6.3%

7 PROSPER ISD 7,076 8,296 1,220 17.2%

8 KLEIN ISD 49,402 50,594 1,192 2.4%

9 NORTHWEST ISD 19,831 20,976 1,145 5.8%

10 FORT WORTH ISD 85,975 87,080 1,105 1.3%

11 HUMBLE ISD 39,522 40,549 1,027 2.6%

12 GRAND PRAIRIE ISD 28,340 29,339 999 3.5%

13 FORT BEND ISD 72,152 73,115 963 1.3%

14 LEANDER ISD 36,211 37,158 947 2.6%

15 CYPRESS-FAIRBANKS ISD 113,023 113,936 913 0.8%

Fastest Growth School Districts in Texas

Rank District NameEnrollment 2014-15 Enrollment 2015-16

Growth

Total Enrollment

(Pre-PEIMS)

4th Week Survey,

2010-11

Numeric Change

In Student

Enrollment

Fall 2014

to

Fall 2015

Total Enrollment

(Pre-PEIMS)

4th Week Survey,

2010-11

Numeric Change

In Student

Enrollment

Fall 2010

to

Fall 2015

Sept 2015% Chg 15-16/

14-15

Oct 3

2016% Chg 16-15/

15-14

EE 539 -9.87% 604 10.74%

PK 1,474 1.94% 1,563 5.66%

KN 5,272 0.17% 5,223 -0.95%

1 5,619 5.80% 5,702 1.46%

2 5,540 5.24% 5,777 4.10%

3 5,572 8.11% 5,825 4.34%

4 5,386 4.16% 5,826 7.55%

5 5,366 1.23% 5,535 3.05%

6 5,555 5.99% 5,609 0.96%

7 5,473 2.86% 5,800 5.64%

8 5,507 2.59% 5,636 2.29%

9 5,814 1.40% 6,024 3.48%

10 5,731 7.18% 5,837 1.81%

11 5,281 5.66% 5,490 3.80%

12 4,696 2.98% 4,949 5.12%

Total 72,825 3.92% 75,398 3.41%

Historical

Growth

Trends

Kindergarten Enrollment vs. Births

40,00045,00050,00055,00060,00065,00070,00075,00080,000

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Past Growth RatesE

nro

llment

6.01%8.07%

6.12%6.25%

4.52%3.90%

2.92%2.61%

3.48%4.11%

4.26%4.04%

3.41%

Unique Demographic Characteristics

Katy I.S.D.• Commute time to work:

• 35 minutes for Katy I.S.D. relative to 34 minutes for Cy-Fair, 23 minutes for Fort Bend, 33.5 for Lamar, and 30 for the Houston Metro Area;

• Economically Disadvantaged students:

• 28% in Katy I.S.D. compared to 59% for State;

• High STAAR passage rate:

• 88% for Katy I.S.D., relative to 73% for the State;

• Highly educated population:

• 46% have bachelor’s degree, compared to 42% in Spring Branch I.S.D., 38% in Cy-Fair I.S.D., and 32% in Houston Consolidated Metro Area;

• High median income:

• $100,386 for Katy I.S.D., compared to $90,238 for Fort Bend, $60,406 for Spring Branch, $87,555 for Lamar C.I.S.D., and $61,465 for the Metro Area

Economically Disadvantaged Student

Population: 2015-16Of 63 Districts with 20,000 or more students

Rank District Name

Economically

Disadvantaged

Students 2015-16

Total Enrollment

2015-16

% Disadvantaged

2015-16

1 FRISCO ISD 5,753 53,300 10.79%

2 ALLEN ISD 3,100 20,822 14.89%

3 LEANDER ISD 6,907 37,158 18.59%

4 NORTHWEST ISD 3,907 20,976 18.63%

5 KELLER ISD 8,110 34,180 23.73%

6 PEARLAND ISD 5,592 21,093 26.51%

7 ROUND ROCK ISD 13,095 47,827 27.38%

8 CLEAR CREEK ISD 11,360 41,226 27.56%

9 KATY ISD 20,631 72,952 28.28%10 PLANO ISD 15,591 54,570 28.57%

Katy I.S.D. has ranked 8th or 9th for at least the last 5 years

2015-16 STAAR Results 3rd-8th Grade

(Districts w/>20,000 Students)

2015-16

Level II

2013-14

Level II

2012-13

Level II

2011-12

Level II

1 ALLEN ISD 20,822 91.91% 92.04% 92.05% 91.77%

2 FRISCO ISD 53,300 90.62% 91.90% 92.37% 91.92%

3 PEARLAND ISD 21,093 89.69% 85.83% 85.46% 84.98%

4 PLANO ISD 54,570 87.80% 86.15% 85.16% 84.56%

5 KATY ISD 72,952 87.56% 87.21% 85.50% 86.68%6 ROUND ROCK ISD 47,827 86.95% 83.96% 83.50% 82.76%

7 CONROE ISD 58,239 84.48% 84.12% 84.16% 82.46%

8 MCKINNEY ISD 24,765 84.46% 84.75% 84.05% 82.81%

9 LEANDER ISD 37,158 84.44% 83.32% 84.45% 84.80%

10 COMAL ISD 21,163 84.29% 82.27% 84.11% 83.01%

Rank School District2015-16

Enrollment

STAAR Passage Rate

Charter and Private School

Enrollment Trends

Katy ISD 68,349 96.1% 70,812 95.4% 73,028 94.1%

Private Schools 1,069 1.5% 1,538 2.1% 1,876 2.4%

Charter Schools 1,727 2.4% 1,876 2.5% 2,723 3.5%

TOTAL 71,145 100.0% 74,226 100.0% 77,627 100.0%

KN through 12th Grade Enrollment of Katy ISD Student Population

2014-15 2015-16 2016-17


Employment Trends

Housing Projections




• Houston area = employment is growing at under one percent this past year;

• Unemployment rates went from 5.3% to 6.4% in Waller Co., 4.5% to 5.7% in Fort Bend

Co., and 4.9% to 5.8% in Harris Co. – and unemployment in the City of Houston grew

from 4.5% to 5.2% -- so all are slightly trending upward in the past year;

• Multi-nucleated employment hubs in & adjacent to Katy I.S.D. are growing,

particularly distribution centers and commercial centers along the Grand Parkway and

the new Boardwalk developments;

• Employees working for firms within 30-minute commute of Mason Rd. & I-10 declined

by 38,500 over an almost two year period (Katy EDC: Sept, 2016);

• In Katy I.S.D. the strongest economic sectors are Education and Medical Services (19%),

Professional and Management Jobs (15%), & Retail (11%)

Katy I.S.D. Employment TrendsEmployment Growth and Critical Employment Centers Both Act

as Local Population Growth Stimuli

Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining

9%

Construction6%

Manufacturing10%

Wholesale Trade4%

Retail Trade9%

Transportation and warehousing, and

utilities5%

Information1%

Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental

and leasing6%

Professional, scientific,

management, administrative and waste management

services17%

Educational services, and health

care and social assistance

19%

Arts, entertainment,

recreation, accomodation, and

food services7%

Other services, except public

administration4%

Public Administration

3%

Katy ISD Employment by Sector

(Out of Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over)

Employed Population: 156,728

(out of 325,420 Total Residents in KISD)

As Reported by 2015 American Community Survey Data

• The Grand Parkway N. of I-10 is spawning east-west corridors;

• Morton Rd. and Clay Rd. - both being widened, & Franz Rd. is being

extended;

• SH 36 corridor is to be constructed just west of the Katy I.S.D. boundary and

will re-route heavy north-south traffic – from Freeport to Hempstead

• Extension of Wespark Tollway – ultimately 4 miles beyond Fulshear

• Fulshear Parkway, a north-south corridor west of FM 1463 should be

completed by 2018 at earliest but in a minimum of four years

• Gaston Rd. is being improved presently and Kingsland Blvd is to connect to

the west to Pederson Rd.

• FM 1463 is being widened to four lanes from I-10 to Spring Green, to be

completed in ~2019

Katy I.S.D. Future Transportation Trends:Transportation and Other Infrastructure Improvements

Act as Local Economic Development Stimuli


Employment Trends

Housing Projections



Long Range Planning


Katy I.S.D.

Development

Density

% of

KISD

Built out 45%

Active 8%

Undev.

planned8%

Undev. no

plans18%

Parks,

Preserves,

Reservoirs

21%

Parcels 5+ Acres

For Sale in

Katy I.S.D.

# %

Apartments 6,839 7,818 979 14% 38%

MHP 1,250 1,259 9 1% 0%Subdivisions -

Built-out60,232 60,290 58 0% 2%

Subdivisions -

Actively Building3,489 4,987 1,498 43% 59%

Townhomes 47 57 10 21% 0%

Percent of

Growth

Added Students

2015 to 2016Resident

Students

in 2016

Resident

Students

in 2015

Student Growth by

Type of Housing

•

Katy ranks 2nd – behind Fort Bend I.S.D. - among 62 Houston Consolidated

Metro Area school districts in total annual housing starts and in new home

closings

For 2Q of 2016, Katy I.S.D. had 9% of all Houston area housing starts -- and

also 9% of housing inventory for sale

New home starts in the 2Q of 2016 were 623, down from 771 in 2Q of 2015 –

a decline of 19.2% (and went down 24% for the same time frame the year

before)

The number of vacant developed lots decreased from 2Q 2015 to 2Q 2016

Also – housing inventory decreased during same period

Katy I.S.D. Housing Starts & Closings

•

Elyson is now developing the first 500 lots on ~860 ac. S. off FM 529; there are 3,642 total ac.;

with 4,635 lots (and up to to ~5,200 lots) on ~2,500 ac. in Katy I.S.D. -- with the

remaining ~1,365 lots in Cy-Fair, IF the Cy-Fair parcels do not sell for corporate sites rather

than homes;

Cinco Ranch has 476 remaining lots /homes to be occupied, including Northwest Cinco;

Cross Creek in Katy - PASA projects 256 new homes occupied by Fall, 2017, relative to 346

starts in 2015 and 450 starts in 2014 ; there are ~1,287 total left to be occupied in this

master-planned community

Northwest Katy (Troy Maxwell) will have ~2,900 lots (excluding future parcels that may be

assembled) and 2 super-MUDs – will operate as three separate developments;

Cane Island will have ~2,100 to 2,200 lots, with 129 now occupied. The first phase has a

minimum of 8 builders and ~500 lots;

Bridgeland has 1,142 ac. within Katy I.S.D. and is in much demand as the Cy-Fair portion is

building out; but a decision has been made by the Howard Hughes Corporation to wait to

develop the Katy portion until after 2025

Ventana Lakes adjacent to the Bethke Elementary, Stockdick Junior High & Paetow High

School complex has 416 occupied this Fall, & another ~930 lots remaining for an 8-yr build-out

Master-Planned Communities – An Update

•

Oil prices have affected future new developments

Pronounced downturn in MF permits: City of Houston down 84%

Developers of Katy I.S.D.’s remaining larger parcels in NW are waiting

on oil price recovery to start new developments

In NW Katy, specific tract locations are critical

Planning subdivisions/MPCs in northwest (NW) Katy I.S.D. requires:

Hydrology (flood plain and drainage) assessments & remediation

planning;

Platting process, from land plans to getting approved to final plats

Outfall, or overflow, parcels are not easily buildable

Fewer developers are willing or able to deal with the critical nature of

drainage in the NW

Future Subdivisions and Master-Planned Communities (MPCs) –

An Update

•

Several builders/developers would like to purchase 160 to 300

ac. with all infrastructure planned (and possibly constructed)

and with drainage approved

Instead, it may take a large developer to undertake this,

and then sell off parcels of 160-300 ac.

Both local and national developers are interested in NW Katy

I.S.D., but they need a large local developer to take the lead

In the NW, projects will be complicated and require much

more skill than almost any other locations in the State

Once the large developers buy up the major parcels, then

the NW Katy area will build-out rapidly

Future Subdivisions and Master-Planned Communities (MPCs) –

An Update (Continued)

Largest

Growth

Single-Family

Developments

Subdivision Names or Planning 2016- 2021- 2016-

Owner(s) Names: Unit: 2021 2026 2026

Newland Communities 1, 2, 4C, 4D 1263 2503 3766

Northwest Katy 1 302 1440 1742

Cane Island 20A, 30, 31B 1078 645 1723

Cross Creek

73A, 73C, 73D,

73E, 73F, 73G,

73H, 73J 1107 168 1275

Ventana Lakes 6B 713 217 930

Marcello/Treviso/Camillo 11A 330 465 795

"Northwest Katy" (Maxwell) 1, 6B 169 565 734

Morton Creek Ranch 11B, 23C 434 297 731

King Crossing 1, 4A 540 100 640

Katy Lakes 4A, 4B 218 357 575

"Lin Family & Sweeney

Estate" 2, 20A 64 500 564

Westfield Village 7B 135 423 558

"BMG/Sowell" 7B 120 410 530

"Longenbaugh" 1 85 445 530

"Katy Investments" 1, 11B 69 450 519

6,627 8,985 15,612

Total Subdivision Housing Projected: 11,617 15,588 27,205

Total (Above-Listed Subdivisions):

Multi-Family

Developments –

Partially

Occupied,

Under

Construction, &

Near-Term

Apartment LUZOccupied

Pre-2015

Occupied

2015-

2016

Units to be

OccupiedTotal

Park West Green 33 0 0 180 180

Williamsburg III 34 0 0 336 336

"Parkside NEC" 34 0 0 240 240

Heights at Park Row 39 0 282 60 342

Blackhaw High Rise 39 0 0 250 250

H6 48 0 405 135 540

Broadstone Energy Park 48 0 0 416 416

Parkside at Memorial 49 0 23 356 379

"Duke MF" 49 0 0 225 225

Haven at Highland Knolls 66 0 2 129 131

Clay at Grand Parkway 12B 0 0 320 320

Marquis at Katy 22E 233 10 15 258

"Greenhouse Road Apts" 37A 0 0 350 350

"Greenhouse Road West" 37A 0 0 350 350

Lynd Greenhouse 37A 0 120 230 350

Ten Oaks 37B 0 0 382 382

Lenox Trails 42A 0 0 389 389

Crossing at Katy Ranch 42A 0 290 28 318

Bella Terra 42A 0 27 427 454

Multi-Family

Developments –

Partially

Occupied,

Under

Construction, &

Near-Term

Apartment LUZOccupied

Pre-2015

Occupied

2015-

2016

Units to be

OccupiedTotal

Vista at Grand Crossing 42B 91 232 28 351

Elan 99 West 42C 0 335 25 360

Haven at Westgreen 44B 16 199 10 225

Streamsong 44B 0 80 220 300

Vue Kingsland 47B 0 404 20 424

Aldeia West 47B 0 250 55 305

Multiple Owners 52A 0 0 183 183

Sorrel 61B 0 370 10 380

Broadstone Falcon Landing (MF/TH) 61E 0 151 233 384

Multiple Owners 67B 0 0 300 300

"A-S 134" 68A 0 0 270 270

Grand at La Canterra 69B 0 261 10 271

Katy Pointe 6A 0 0 250 250

Park Lane Fulshear 73I 0 0 420 420

Stratus Cinco Ranch 78A 0 106 80 186

Sovereign at Cinco 78B 102 183 15 300

Palms at Cinco Ranch 78B 200 0 160 360

Cinco Ranch IV 79A 0 0 350 350

Marquis at Cinco Ranch 79F 147 30 3 180

Total 7,460 12,009

Multi-Family Developments – Long-Term Planned

Apartment LUZTotal No. of

Units

"AVEX" 1 1,710

Monterrey Oaks 1 900

Multiple Owners 1 590

Bridgeland 2 720

Katy ISD 17 180

"Lennar Multifamily" 33 338

"Milestone Colonial" 33 250


"Perrin White" 34 200

"Westside Venture" 34 670

Williamsburg I & II 34 600

"Central Park West" 39 250

"Town Centre Katy Omega III" 41 195


"Katy Boardwalk" 53 370

Multiple Owners 11C 350

"Clay 628" 12A 720

Apartment LUZTotal No. of

Units

Mason McAlister Place 13B 240

"MCI Grand Parkway" 13B 320

"Prima Terra" 16A 280

Multiple Owners 16B 250

Multiple Owners 24A 400

"Forresta" 37A 280

"Odonoghue/Bakhr/Leobardo" 4A 220

Multiple Owners 4D 800

"Tsakaris" 50A 430


"HLB Harris Group" 6C 870

Multiple Owners 79C 160


Westfield Village 7B 440

"BMG/Sowell" 7B 520

"Mason & Clay" 7B 370

Total: 8,493

Projected New

Housing

Occupancies

August 2016

to

October 2017

Projected New

Housing

Occupancies

August 2016

to

October 2021

Projected New

Housing

Occupancies

October 2021 to

October 2026

Projected New

Housing

Occupancies

August 2016

to

October 2026

Projected New

Housing

Occupancies

October 2026

to

Build-Out

Projected

New Housing

Occupancies

2016 – 2026

Aug 2016-Oct. 2017 1,862 1,756 51 3,669

Oct. 2017-Oct. 2018 2,156 1,341 9 3,506

Oct. 2018-Oct. 2019 2,340 1,532 10 3,882

Oct. 2019-Oct. 2020 2,613 2,292 23 4,928

Oct. 2020-Oct. 2021 2,802 2,401 20 5,223

Oct. 2021-Oct. 2022 2,965 2,052 11 5,028

Oct. 2022-Oct. 2023 2,934 1,869 3 4,806

Oct. 2023-Oct. 2024 3,023 1,509 1 4,533

Oct. 2024-Oct. 2025 3,270 1,179 - 4,449

Oct. 2025-Oct. 2026 3,466 870 - 4,336

Aug 2016-Oct 2021 11,773 9,322 113 21,208

Oct 2022-Oct 2026 15,658 7,479 15 23,152

Aug 2016-Oct 2026 27,431 16,801 128 44,360

Total:

Single-

Family

Housing

Multi-

Family

Housing

TH &

Condos


Employment Trends

Housing Projections




Ratios of Students per Household

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Single-

Family

Homes0.72 0.73 0.72 0.72

.72 students per

home

Apartments 0.35 0.34 0.36 0.36.36

students per

unit


Employment Trends

Housing Projections




Moderate Growth Scenario

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Enrollment 77,627 79,856 81,908 84,066 86,341 88,647 90,868 93,129 95,537 98,006% Growth 2.96 2.87 2.57 2.63 2.71 2.67 2.51 2.49 2.59 2.58Growth 2,229 2,228 2,053 2,158 2,275 2,306 2,221 2,261 2,408 2,468

Projected Enrollment at PEIMS Snapshot

Three Scenarios of GrowthE

nro

llm

en

t

Moderate

Growth

2021 – 86,341

2026 – 98,006

High Growth

2021 – 88,083

2026 – 102,173

Low Growth

2021 – 84,740

2026 – 92,41760,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

105,000

110,000

2011 2017 2026

Katy I.S.D.Demographic Update

October 24, 2016

Documents

Katy I.S.D.Katy I.S.D. has ranked 8 thor 9 for at least the last 5 years 2015-16 STAAR Results 3rd-8th Grade (Districts w/>20,000 Students) 2015-16 Level II 2013-14 Level II 2012-13