June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion1 What can We Learn from ARCTAS-CARB Data? Modeling and Meteorology Branch Planning and Technical Support Division June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion2 Outline Wildfires Biogenics Sources of SO 2 /SO 4 Boundary Conditions The C 2 H 5 OH Issue VOC and/or NO x limitations of O 3 formation Note: Only DC-8 data analyzed. P-3 data modeled but yet to be analyzed. June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion3 Wild Fires June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion4 The reactive nitrogen budget was balanced with PAN as the dominant component Greenhouse gas estimates derived from ARCTAS-CARB data for the South Coast Air Basin of California show good agreement with state inventories for CO 2 and N 2 O but indicate substantially larger emissions of CH 4 June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion5 What can ARCTAS data tell us about Emissions profiles O 3 precursors (O 3 itself?) Primary PM and precursors for secondary PM formation Plume Chemistry Plume characteristics Plume dimensions Plume rise Climate Change Greenhouse gas emissions Radiative properties of fire-related PM June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion6 June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion7 June 18, 2008 Aqua/MODIS 21:00+21:05 UTC June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion8 Ozone and its Precursors June 18, 2008 June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion9 Wildfire Signature June 18, 2008 June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion10 Wildfire Markers June 18, 2008 June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion11 CH 3 CN vs. O 3 06/18/201006/20/ /22/201006/24/201006/26/2010 June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion12 June 20, 2008 Terra/MODIS 18:55 UTC June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion13 June 22, 2008 Terra/MODIS 18:55 UTC June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion14 June 24, 2008 Terra/MODIS 18:45 UTC June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion15 June 26, 2008 Terra/MODIS 18:30 UTC June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion16 06/18/ /20/ /22/ /24/ /26/2010 N Mass Balance for Fires June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion17 Biogenics June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion18 Biogenics June 20, 2008 June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion19 Biogenics June 22, 2008 June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion20 Biogenics June 24, 2008 June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion21 Biogenics June 26, 2008 June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion22 Sources of SO 2 June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion23 Sources of SO 2 : June 18, 2008 June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion24 Sources of SO 2 : June 20, 2008 June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion25 Sources of SO 2 : June 22, 2008 June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion26 Sources of SO 2 : June 24, 2008 June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion27 Sources of SO 2 : June 26, 2008 June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion28 Boundary Conditions June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion29 June 22, 2008 Boundary Conditions June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion30 Boundary Conditions June 22, 2008 June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion31 Meteorology June 22, 2008 June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion32 Boundary Conditions June 22, 2008 June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion33 Where was the Jet Stream? 500 mb Height: 10 am PST 06/22/2008 June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion34 Did it touch down in California? June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion35 The results indicate the need to develop observational strategies to provide information on the three- dimensional nature of pollution distribution, in order to improve out capability to predict pollution levels and to better quantify the influence of these Asian inflow on the US west coast air quality. June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion36 The Ethanol Issue Picture from June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion37 06/18/201006/20/ /22/2010 EtOH vs. O 3 06/24/201006/26/2010 June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion38 Sources of C 2 H 5 OH: June 18, 2008 June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion39 Sources of C 2 H 5 OH: June 20, 2008 June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion40 Ozone and Precursors June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion41 VOC and/or NOx Limitations Obtained an unprecedented suit of measurements that would allow one to probe inner-workings of chemistry Aircraft measurements are not really Lagrangian Is the model predicting the correct VOC and/or NOx sensitivity of O 3 ? Are we now able to test the validity of indicator ratios (or something related to that)? If not, what are we missing (and should be measured during 2010 CalNex)? Is there anything else we can look at? June 29, 2011NASA/ARB Data Analyses Discussion42 Future Simulations MM5/WRF Analysis and observational nudging CMAQ SAPRC99 with the additional chemical reactions to match observed species Emissions Inclusion of fires Base year emissions for 2005 projected to 2008