Journals:Subscriptions

SubstitutionsCancellations

Chandra PrabhaResearch Scientist

Carolyn HankResearch Intern*

XXV Annual Charleston ConferenceNovember 3, 2005

*Currently TRLN Doctoral Fellow, UNC-Chapel Hill

Presentation Overview

• Research question• ARL

• Specific objectives• Commonly used terms

• This presentation available online:http://www.oclc.org/research/presentations/prabha/charleston05.ppt

Presentation Overview

• Research question• ARL

• Specific objectives• Commonly used

terms

• Study design • Data collection

• Findings• Forecasting

Research Question

When are journal collections in libraries likely to become electronic?

Association of Research Libraries (ARL)

Established December 29, 1932

Formed to provide avenue for discussing common concerns and to organize coordinated actions

42 Charter Members

Sources: http://www.arl.org/pubscat/pubs/celebrating70/history.html

http://www.arl.org/pubscat/pubs/celebrating70/members.html

Association of Research Libraries (ARL)

Scholarly Communication

Public Policies

Advancing Goals

Fostering Exchange

Source: http://www.arl.org/arl/arlfacts.html

Association of Research Libraries (ARL)

Scholarly Communication

Public Policies

Advancing Goals

Fostering Exchange

Source: http://www.arl.org/arl/arlfacts.html

123 Current Members

Criteria for membership

Source: http://www.arl.org/members.html http://www.arl.org/newsltr/197/criteria.html

Specific Objectives

% of active subscriptions

characteristics of cancelled subscriptions

% of journals received in both p- and e- format

% of journals subscribed in print only

% of journals subscribed solely in e- format.

Journal Access Frequently Used Terms

Journals

e-Journals

Open Access Journals

Publisher Packages

Journal Aggregators

Full-Text Databases

Journal ManagementFrequently Used Terms

Subscriptions• Current or Active• Ceased

Cancellations

Journal ManagementFrequently Used Terms

Subscriptions• Current or Active• Ceased

Cancellations

Format Substitution

Duplication

Archiving • Digital• Print

Study Design

Journals subscribed by ARL

Sampling

Unit of analysis

Journal status and journal format(s)

ARL Journals OCLC WorldCat

Members indicate subscribed journals• Example: Princeton University PUL

ARL members: • Subscribe to 200,000 unique titles• Combined holdings – 2,000,000

Excluded non-university ARL members:• Public libraries• Federal libraries and archives• State libraries• Research libraries

Sampling Process

Journals are coded in the fixed fields of the MARC record.

Coding in the fixed fields indicate whether journal is active or has ceased.

Sample Source WorldCat Database

Subset of ARL Periodical Subscriptions

Initial Sample Size 547

J ournals

Corrected Sample Size

529

J ournal Subscriptions Found in Libraries’ Online Catalogs

516

Number of Ceased Subscriptions

Not Shown in WorldCat 16

J ournals not Found in Local Online Catalogs

13

Data Collection

OPACs• Catalog Record• ISSN 0011-1384 University of Alabama;

• http://library.ua.edu/cgi-bin/Pwebrecon.cgi?DB=local&PAGE=bbSearch

• Link Tool• E.g. SFX • http://www.exlibrisgroup.com/sfx.htm• http://www.lib.ua.edu/ejournals/

Library Staff• Via email and/or phone

Subscriptions & Cancellations

2002 Sample Size

516

2004 Sample Size

516

2004 Active Subscriptions

416

2002 Active Subscriptions

417

2002 Cancelled Subscriptions

99

2004 Cancelled Subscriptions

91

Make-Up of Collections2002 & 2004

268 64%

200 47%

20 5%

7919%

129 31%

143 34%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

To

tal

Su

bscri

pti

on

s

Print Only Electronic Only Both

2002

2004

Format or Status Changes in Subscribed JournalsBetween 2002 & 2004

Chanaged25%

Did not change75%

Shifts in Subscription of Dual Formats

8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2002 2004

P & E Formats

Print Cancellations

31%

23%

Changes between 2002 & 2004

268 Subscriptions

60%28%

6%6%

P only

P+ E

E only

Cancelled

2002 2004

Make-Up of Journal Collections in 2008

Between 2002 & 2004:

• Print only subscriptions decreased by 14%• Electronic only subscriptions increased by 16%

At this rate of change, in 2008:

• 53% of subscriptions will be in p-format• 84% of subscriptions will be in e-format

Questions???

Journals: Subscriptions, Substitutions, Cancellations

Chandra Prabha & Carolyn Hank

XXV Annual Charleston ConferenceNovember 3, 2005

chandra@oclc.org

614-764-6086

http://www.oclc.org/research/presentations/prabha/charleston05.ppt