Rising IndiaJanuary 2010

Nutrition and Health

Tuberculosis

The Silent

Killer…

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Rising IndiaCONTENTS

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Editor-in- Chief Dr. Sukhpal Singh Dhanoa (Ph.D)Sukhpal@risingindia.ca 804-564-4208 Advisory BoardPatric Brown Member Parliment CanadaRahim Jaffer Former MP CanadaMr Gord Brown MP CanadaMr John Reynolds Former MP CanadaMr Paramjit BalMr Suresh GuptaMr Sanjeev Maingi

ContributorsB. RamanLucky SidhuProf. Anil AnandNilantha IlangamuwaNavneet SandhuShauna HollingsheadDr. S.S Misra

Ms Haimu Chawlahaimu@risingindia.ca

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any staff member of Rising India assumes no responsibility of any kind. Information presented is compiled from the source believed to be true and accurate.

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Page 17 CIA: Risk Takers & Not Risk-Seekers

By B. Raman

Tuberculosis The Silent Killer…By Nighat Zahoor Khan

Indian PM's visit to the US : Strains andStresses of Indo-US Relations

S.S.Misra

Presidential Polls in Sri Lanka: Issues of Political Expediency

Asantha De’Mello

The Role of Private Sector Investment

in Post-Conflict ReconstructionA Case Study of IraqEmily Landis Walker

‘

A Somali Version of Operation Micky Mouse - International Terrorism Monitor

By B. Raman

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The Role of Private Sector Investment in Post-Conflict Reconstruction

A Case Study of IraqEmily Landis Walker

‘

The efforts to improve post-conflict

societies revolve around the activities and programs of the Government, and the creation of an economy that creates jobs and opportunity for its citizens, dissuades would-be terrorists and boosts public morale.

While the Government's ability to provide security and stability is critical equally important is the role of economic investment, creation of jobs, and development of a thriving economy amidst the post-conflict chaos. Armed with a future that gives hope and provision for economic needs, society will be less likely to take up arms, revolt against perceived aggressors and enhance the prospects for peace.

Given the world economic crisis, excess liquidity, available finance for investment have weakened, and investors are less inclined to invest in emerging markets which could have positive impact on security and resilience of the target country, especially in a post conflict situation. However, \such investments are likely to yield good returns and provide positive incentive against terrorism and counter-insurgency .

While most investors are reluctant to even consider even minimal diversion of their investment towards a “post-conflict” country, the opportunities for significant gains in these markets exist. For those who have a higher threshold of risk tolerance and have some awareness of this type of market, should know that there are good opportunities awaiting

them in these countries where conflicts have been resolved and the reconstruction efforts have begun. By investing in these countries, they can not only receive a significant return, but also contribute to the rebuilding of society and the improvement of security for future generations.

Iraq may seem like the last “post-conflict” country many investors would be willing to visit because today there

must be places where money can grow with less hassle and more security. Of course, there are hassles. Even the

Iraqi Government admits that there are many issues, including legal and

bureaucratic impediments, which need to be resolved to encourage and attract private sector investment. However it may be said that , investing in Iraq is

not for the “faint-hearted”, and opportunity for significant returns is

notable for those who can navigate the waters, be patient and understand that

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investing in Iraq is a long-term commitment.

Firstly, Iraq has all along had a strong merchant class who are well educated and willing to learn to operate in the ever-changing environment. The country also has a

strong educational system and, although it has been run-down in recent years, there has been a significant

effort to rejuvenate it by retraining the senior management and by bringing youth into the new

educational order.

The new American University in Sulaimania is one example of the modernization of the Iraqi educational system, offering courses in English to Iraqi students

from throughout the country to study business, international relations and technology in a free and

open setting. Both the merchant culture and the upgrading of the educational system bode well for

foreign companies looking to enter the country.

More broadly, Iraqis have developed a sense of national pride, having

survived the Saddam era. People want to better

themselves and their nation, and they are realizing that the current situation is an

opportunity to take a stake in their country's future and

see tangible results.

Secondly, the Iraqi Government and the Kurdistan Regional

Government (KRG) in northern Iraq are eager and

committed to attracting foreign investment to key

areas of the economy. In addition to hosting the

“Invest Iraq” conference in London in April 2009, where all of the key Iraqi Ministers

were present along with over 250 companies, Prime

Minister Maliki has announced an upcoming

conference in Washington DC next October, in conjunction with the US Chamber of Commerce. The KRG will also be sponsoring an

investment conference in London in early September, co-hosted with

the Middle East Association. Further, the Iraqi Government is

also looking to host events in Japan and

Germany. The National Investment Council as well as the Regional

Councils and Boards of Investment are working hard to upgrade their

public relations, websites, and assistance to foreign investors. Finally, there

are new companies springing up to help

foreign investors enter the country, providing briefings, meetings, strategies, potential

partners, legal analysis and logistics.

Presidential Polls in Sri Lanka: Issues of Political Expediency

Asantha De’Mello

elected, he will have a firmer grip on ruling party candidates for the forthcoming parliamentary elections and will be better placed to seek a clear majority for the alliance led by him in the new House.

If the ruling combine musters a two-thirds majority in the new Parliament, the President can push through amendments to the Constitution. On the top of his political agenda, like that of most of his predecessors, is a shift from executive presidency to executive prime ministership under a parliamentary form of democracy. Given the consensus within and outside Sri Lanka that the present French-model of constitution with sweeping Presidential powers are at the root of most of the problems of the island nation, the intentions of Rajapaksa seem to be noble. However, he has a hidden agenda as any such switch-over to parliamentary democracy would remove the now-existing two-term limit for anybody as President, and allow Rajapaksa to rule as Prime Minister with supreme executive power for as

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Recently the island-

nation of Sri Lanka has seen an acrimonious exchange of words between the two main contenders for the post of President. The Presidential elections are slated to be held on 26th January 2010. The incumbent President Mr. Mahinda Rajapaksa has taken his opponents by surprise by going for a snap poll to gain political capital out of his successful decimation of the LTTE and bringing the country back to normalcy. On the other hand, the opposition have projected the former military chief Sarath Fonseka, who played a crucial role in defeating LTTE, as a formidable candidate to take on the Rajapaksa.

Under the present Sri Lankan Constitution, the President is empowered to call a presidential election once he/she completes four years of the six-year tenure. Rajapaksa completed four years in office in the third week of November 2009 and sought re-election before the end of his term. Political commentators are of the view that Rajapaksa wants an early second term as his popularity ratings in the south are at an all time high after the military defeat of the LTTE and the death of Prabakaran. Also, the political pundits in the President’s camp believe that if Rajapaksa is re-

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the ex-General’s abilities over his war plans against the LTTE. Such an unprincipled political culture within the UNF is viewed with suspicion by the people of Sri Lanka. Apart from the sole aim of dethroning Mahinda Rajapaksa, the underlying political unity of the UNF runs against the wider interest of expanding the democratic space in Sri Lankan politics. So it is pertinent to examine the evolution of the Presidential system in Sri Lanka which has seen the rise of authoritarianism in a highly literate society.

After gaining independence from the British rule in 1948, Sri Lanka followed the parliamentary system like India till 1977 when the then leader, J.R. Jayewardene with massive parliamentary majority switched over to French-model of Gaullist Presidency with the plea for stronger executive in response to the Tamil militancy. Thus, for a long time, Sri Lankan politics has revolved around two major political parties, the UNP (United

long as he would have the backing of the electorate.

On the other hand, the opposition candidate, Gen. Fonseka has been projected as the common candidate by a patchwork coalition designed solely to defeat Rajapaksa. Now the former army chief is painted as the great saviour of the Sinhalese majority as his military move crushed the Tigers and ended their quarter-century war to create a separate nation for the Tamil ethnic minority on the island of 21 million people, three-quarters of whom are from the Sinhalese ethnic group. The former military commander’s unexpected bid for presidency is a manifestation of the crisis at the political level.

The opposition, UNF has been able to unite socially and politically dissimilar and diverse forces on the sole aim of dethroning Mahinda Rajapaksa. In political battles when the battle lines are drawn, the unity of such dissimilar and diverse forces are usually capable of providing the winning combination as the UNP and the JVP electoral pact can seriously undermine Mahinda Rajapaksa’s dynastic hopes. Along with this, Sarath Fonseka has ended the monopoly of the government’s claim to Sinhalese chauvinism.

But it is ironical how the UNF political formation has embraced the ex-general who was publicly ridiculed and undermined by some of them during the war, in order to grab political power riding on his back. They have not shown any political embarrassment nor withdrawn their critical public statements made against

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National Party) and the SLFP (Sri Lanka Freedom Party). In the periodic elections, either of these two parties has secured the majority to rule depending on the decision of the people at the polls. In 1970, it was the socialist SLFP -led coalition. In 1977 it was Jayewardene who moved to embrace the West and the IMF. In 1995, Chandrika Kumaratunga of SLFP came back with the socialists. Ranil Wickremesinghe of UNF became Prime Minister in 2001 even when Kumaratunga was the President. This led to lot of difficulties with two different parties heading two executive posts in Sri Lanka. Later, when Kumaratunga could not contest for Presidency because she had exhausted her two-term limits, Mahinda Rajapaksa became the President in 2005 with a socialist cardand submitted his Mahinda Chintanaya, the most comprehensive cluster of policies ever included in any one election manifesto. This included the development of the country as well as defeating the terrorists. This has made him very popular. He promised to restore the sovereignty of the country and bring prosperity to all. He is now portrayed as a great leader as he has achieved the task of defeating the terrorists and bringing normalcy to the entire island.

But as of now, the main question before the electorate is how the country can embark on the path of peace and progress. So both Presidential candidates should explain how they are going to resolve the national question and the need to devolve power to the Tamil minority in clear terms. Any

ambiguity or playing with narrow national interest will ruin the ability to restore and maintain a healthy democratic culture. If they do not provide a solution to the Tamil community based on democratic rights, they will never get rid of the culture of impunity. So there is a need for restoration of media freedom and other basic elements of good governance.

There is also the need for a bipartisan approach to resolve the historical grievances of Tamils not because it would negate the possibility of another ethnic rebellion, but because it is a right and civilized political act to follow by the political leadership in the country. Never before in Sri Lanka’s political history has two powerful men vied for the Presidency and had the historic opportunity to resolve the burning issue of the Tamil problem. Never before in their electoral history, has the fate of democracy been so dependent upon the ability of these two leaders to transcend the confines of the Sinhalese majority. That is why this election will be unique if a solution can be found to the problems that Lankans are confronting today. It will be a disappointment if their leaders fail them.

To the world outside, the democratic credentials of Sri Lanka is suspect especially when its citizens continue to queue up on the shores of other countries for political asylum claiming persecution on the grounds of ethnic discrimination. Those claims are not easy to refute when the Tamil IDP (Internally Displaced People) camps have come up as examples of human oppression. During the war and the post-war period, Sri Lanka has dispatched thousands of Tamils to other parts of the world. Almost all Tamil immigrants have a tragic story to convey to fellow human beings. So the present elections are crucial and the Presidential candidates must focus on building up the nation giving equal opportunities to all its citizens, irrespective of their ethnicity and removing discrimination in all spheres of life. The political solution to the Tamil problem has to be worked out keeping all this in mind. Rajapaksa and Fonseka have a unique opportunity. Let us hope hey do not squander it.

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The recent visit of the Indian

Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh to the US is very significant in Indo-US bilateral relations as leaders of the two largest democracies signed a host of MoUs (memorandum of understanding). Calling India a natural partner, President Obama stressed that the ties between the two countries were “one of the defining relations” in the 21st century in which India would assume a leadership role in the region and the world. With the optimism to work together as global strategic partners, India and the US signed several MoUs to enhance cooperation in the field of energy security, energy efficiency, clean energy, and climate change. Additionally, the two sides concluded some MoUs on agricultural cooperation, food security, a counterterrorism cooperation initiative, as also advancing global security. Besides, several collaborative projects were outlined for mutual benefit. From the Indian side, PM Dr Singh sought to broaden and deepen India's strategic partnership and work with the US to meet the challenges of a fast-changing world. He declared the meeting as a moment of great opportunity in the bilateral relationship. He elaborated on and underlined the need to work together on a wide spectrum of areas to address global challenges like terrorism, environmental issues and denuclearization. A key highlight of Singh's visit was the manner in which he clearly outlined his views on China and Pakistan. On the issue of China, Singh said that he had failed to understand the reason for the assertiveness on the

Indian PM's visit to the US : Strains andStresses of Indo-US Relations

S.S.Misra

Chinese part. Highlighting India's stand, he said that India wanted the world to prepare for the peaceful rise of China as a major power, and that engagement was the right strategy for India and the US to adopt in the regard. . On being questioned about the US military aid given to Pakistan and fears that it was being used against India, Obama avoided giving any substantial answer on how and when the US would put a hold on it, or what measures it would use against Pakistan to stop the misuse of aid. The only reply forthcoming on the issue was that the aid given to Pakistan was meant only for military purposes and not for other development processes. Back home in India, most of the strategic commentators and media persons considered the Obama double-speak on Pakistan as a sign of thaw in Indo-US ties. The visit was considered as a failure of Dr. Manmohan Singh to realize the main objective of the “operationalization” of the controversial US-India civilian nuclear deal

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concluded in the Bush era. On the issue of China, it was cited that Washington needed Beijing to cope with the crisis in the US economy and hence the lack of “containment strategy” towards China. In sum, New Delhi felt disheartened that from a tall pedestal as an Asian “balancer” (as per Bush's estimate), Obama brought it down to the level of a sub-regional power. So in this context, it is pertinent to examine the basis of Indo-US relations in the present context. The growing economic and commercial partnership between India and the US is largely driven by India's impressive economic growth during this time of global recession and India's presence and role in the Group of 20 nations (G-20) is indicative of this importance. The fact that India not only attracted nearly $15 billion (Rs69,750 crore) in foreign direct investment (FDI) in the last quarter but that it has a projected outbound FDI target of $14 billion for 2009-10 is of particular importance to the struggling US economy. While the former makes India an attractive investment, the latter, which is reflected in the recent purchase of Minnesota Steel by Essar, makes India an important investor and job creator. Thus, while the US economy is not beholden to India (as it is to China), it is likely to become increasingly intertwined with the Indian industry.Second, apart from the economy, the other areas of common interest are clearly Afghanistan and counterterrorism. However, while both nations have similar goals, their approaches are divergent. On Afghanistan, both India and the US are keen on seeing a multi-ethnic, independent and stable Afghanistan at peace with itself and its neighbours. However, there are differences. The Obama Administration prefers a short-term engagement and a clear exit policy, while it is also inclined to promote democracy. In contrast, New Delhi prefers the path of democracy and human rights for Afghan people, and has a long-term perspective that goes beyond just hunting

down Osama bin-Laden. On counterterrorism, the signing of the Counterterrorism Cooperation Initiative on the eve of the first anniversary of the Mumbai attacks is not only symbolic but also indicative of the level of cooperation that exists and is likely to grow in the coming years. However, even this crucial cooperation is not likely to be smooth, as is evident in the ongoing debate as to whether Indian law enforcement agencies will eventually get to interrogate alleged Lashkar-e-Taiba operatives David Coleman Headley and Tahawwur Hussain Rana, who are in US custody. The inability of the two sides to work out a way on such issues can affect future cooperation.In the final analysis, in these times of economic meltdown in the US, the Indo-US relations have entered a stage of realism where American interests are defined in terms of broad coalitions and deal-makings. It is also true that the shared values such as democracy, pluralism, tolerance, openness, and respect for fundamental freedoms and human rights, make both countries 'natural partners' who recognize terrorism as one of the biggest threats to world security. In that contest, the recent visit has been an occasion for both countries to reaffirm their determination to fight evil in all its forms. However the delayed response from the US and its constant avoidance of confronting Pakistan on the terrorist activities against India, raises questions about the authenticity of Obama's assurance of the US being India's best friend.Dr. S. S. Misra is a commentator on security and foreign affairs.

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Tuberculosis is

a contagious bacterial disease commonly affecting the lungs (pulmonary TB), and if left untreated spreads to the other parts of the body; for example lymph nodes, kidneys, bones, joints, etc. (extra pulmonary TB). According to the Department of Health, Pulmonary Tuberculosis is the 6th cause of mortality and morbidity in the 3rd world countries as of 2007. In 2004 morbidity and mortality statistics included 14.6 million chronic active cases, 8.9 million new cases, and 1.6 million deaths mostly in developing countries. In addition, a rising number of people in the developed world are contracting tuberculosis because their immune systems are compromised by immunosuppressive drugs, substance abuse, or AIDS. Distribution of immune system is not uniform across the globe with about 80% of the population in many Asian and African countries testing positive in tuberculin test, while 10-15% testing positive in US and Canada. Tuberculosis, a chronic disease commonly affecting

the lungs is characterized by the formation of tubercles in the tissues which tend to undergo cessation, irreversible tissue death, and calcification. The causative agent in this disease is Mycobacterium Tuberculosis. A person can become infected with tuberculosis bacteria when he or she inhales minute particles of infected sputum from the air. The bacteria can get into the air when someone who has a tuberculosis lung infection coughs, sneezes, shouts, or spits (which is common in some cultures). People who are nearby can then possibly breathe the bacteria into their lungs. A person needs only a small number of these bacteria to get the infection. When the inhaled bacteria enter the lungs, it can multiply and cause a local lung infection (pneumonia). The local lymph nodes associated with the lungs may also become involved with the infection and usually become enlarged. The lymph nodes adjacent to the heart in the central part of the chest are often involved. In addition, TB can spread to other parts of the body. The body's immune (defense) system, however, can fight off the infection and stop the bacteria from spreading. The immune system does so ultimately by forming scar tissue around the TB bacteria and isolating it from the rest of the body. Tuberculosis that occurs after initial exposure to the bacteria is often referred to as primary TB. If the body is able to form scar tissue

Tuberculosis The Silent Killer…By Nighat Zahoor Khan

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(fibrosis) around the TB bacteria, then the infection is contained in an inactive state. Such an individual typically has no symptoms and cannot spread TB to other people. The scar tissue and lymph nodes may eventually harden, like stone, due to the process of calcification of the scars (deposition of calcium from the bloodstream in the scar tissue). These scars often appear on x-rays and imaging studies like round marbles and are referred to as a granuloma.Sometimes, however, the body's immune system becomes weakened, and the TB bacteria break through the scar tissue and can cause active disease, referred to as secondary TB. For example, the immune system can be weakened by old age, the development of another infection or a cancer, or certain medications such as cortisone (steroids), anticancer drugs, or certain medications used to treat arthritis or inflammatory bowel disease. The breakthrough of bacteria can result in a recurrence of the pneumonia and a spread of TB to other locations in the body. The kidneys, bone, and lining of the brain and spinal cord (meninges) are the most common sites affected by the spread of TB beyond the lungs, eventually leading to death of individual.What are the signs of TB disease? If the TB disease is in your lungs, you may: cough a lot; cough up mucus or phlegm ("flem") or blood;

Nutrition and Health

have chest pain when you cough or breathe. If you have TB disease anywhere in your body, you may have a fever; sweat at night; lose your appetite; lose weight; feel weak; have problems in the part of your body with the TB disease. Who is more likely to get TB disease? Older people, children, anyone whose immune system is compromise, got TB infection in the last 2 or 3 years; people with lung scars that show on their chest X-rays; people who are HIV-positive; people who are alcoholics or injection drug users; people with diabetes and certain types of cancers; people who are very thin or who don't eat well.

How do I know if I have TB disease? Only a doctor can tell if you have TB disease. A chest X-ray will usually show if you have the disease in your lungs. A TB skin test (PPD) and tests on phlegm that you cough up are also important. A skin test on your arm is the best way to find out. The test is "positive" if a swelling the size of a dime or bigger appears a few days later. This means you probably have TB infection. If you do have the infection, your doctor may recommend medicine to keep you from getting TB disease and becoming sick. This is called "preventive" treatment. Isoniazid (INH) is the medicine used most often. It takes 6 to 12 months to kill the TB germs. Unless you kill the TB germs with the right medicine, they will stay in your body and may cause TB disease later on. It is absolutely necessary to complete the full course of medication to cure the infection. At times patients after taking the medications for a few weeks feel better, and stop taking medications. But feeling good does not mean that the infection is gone. It just means that infection is subsiding, and not cured. TB medications are free in Canada, and patient does not have to pay for them. Patient’s doctor orders the drugs he/she need from the public health department. As the wise say, “prevention is the best cure.” Best prevention is to get vaccinated (BCG) before traveling to TB pandemic areas, and get tested repeatedly. Keep a safe distance from people who are coughing. If you do get a positive PPD test, take the preventive medicine to avoid getting the active disease.

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Tuberculosis The Silent Killer…

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A Somali Version of Operation Micky Mouse - International Terrorism Monitor

By B. Raman An as yet unnamed (by the Danish Police) 28-year-old Somali, resident in Denmark, was arrested by the Danish Police on New Year's Day after they had promptly intervened and thwarted an attempt made by him to trespass into the house of Danish cartoonist Kurt Westergaard in the city of Aarhus with an alleged intent to kill him with an axe and a knife. He allegedly tried to attack the intervenig police party before he was overpowered. He thus faces two charges of attempting to kill the cartoonist and attacking the police. 2. The cartoonist had incurred the wrath of some sections of the Muslim Ummah in 2005 for drawing a cartoon of Prophet Mohammad sporting a bomb in his hair. Since then, the cartoonist has been under high protection by the Danish Police and Intelligence. He escaped the attempt on January 1, 2010, thanks to his alertness in noticing the intending assailant and calling the police through a pre-arranged drill. The credit for the failure of the attempt should go to the cartoonist himself as well as to the Police. Both acted as per the drill for physical security laid down by the police after he started receiving threats in 2005. 3. It goes to the credit of the police and the Danish intelligence that they had not allowed the absence of any attack since 2005 to make them self-complacent. Moreover, the Danish Police and intelligence were doubly alert after the arrest of David Coleman Headley and Tahawwur Hussain Rana of the Chicago cell of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) by the USA's Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) in October, 2009. 4. The pre-arrest electronic surveillance of these two LET operatives----- both of Pakistani origin, with Headley holding the US nationality and Rana the Canadian nationality--- and their post-arrest interrogation brought out that the 313 Brigade of Pakistan headed by Ilyas Kashmiri and the LET

were planning to use Headley for another major terrorist strike in India and for an attack on the Danish paper, which had published the cartoons in 2005. The LET was keen on the Indian attack and the 313 Brigade on the Danish attack, which had been code-named Operation Micky Mouse. 5. At the instance of Ilyas Kashmiri, Headley had visited Denmark twice to collect operational information to facilitate the attack. He was arrested by the FBI on October 3, 2009, before he could leave Chicago for Pakistan along with the operational details collected by him. A perusal of the affidavits filed by the FBI before a Chicago court showed that while Ilyas Kashmiri was interested in a spectacular strike in Copenhagen similar to Mumbai 26/11, Headley himself preferred an assassination of the journalists responsible which, he felt, would be more feasible. 6. What Ilyas and Headley failed to achieve due to the alertness of the FBI, the Somali, not yet named by the Danish police, sought to achieve on New Year's Day. The thwarted attempt of the Somali illustrates once again the homing pigeon tactics of Al Qaeda, which keeps persisting in its jihadi trajectory despite failures and set-backs. The timely arrest of Headley did not lead to its giving up its objective of taking revenge against the cartoonist. 7. The following details of the arrested Somali are presently available:

a) He has been residing in Denmark for some time with a legal permit, but one does not know when he moved to Denmark and from where.

b) The media has quoted Jakob Scharf, who heads the Danish intelligence service

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PET, as saying that the attack was "terror related" and that the assailant had close contacts with Al Shabaab. He had been under surveillance for activities unrelated to Westergaard. Al Shabaab is considered the Somali wing of Al Qaeda. Scharf added: "The incident once again confirms the terrorist threat that is directed against Denmark and against cartoonist Kurt Westergaard, in particular".

8. At a news conference in the Somali capital of Mogadishu, Sheikh Ali Mohamud Rage, who has been described by the media as a spokesman of Al Shabaab, reportedly said, "We are very happy with the Somali national who attacked the house of the Danish cartoonist who previously insulted our prophet Mohammed. This is an honor for the Somali people. We are telling that we are glad that anyone who insults Islam should be attacked wherever they are." Thus, the organisation has expressed its approval of the attempted attack without claiming responsibility for it. 9. The Danish Police and Intelligence will now be investigating the background and links of the arrested Somali. A question, which should be of interest to investigators in Denmark, the US and India is: Did he have any contacts with Headley? Did Headley meet him during his two visits to Denmark? 10. This may be read in continuation of my earlier article of December 4,2009, titled "The Somali Front of the Global Jihad" at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers36/paper3534.html , which is annexed for easy reference ( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com ) ANNEXURE The Somali Front of the Global Jihad -- International Terrorism Monitor --- Paper No.584 ( December 4, 2009) By B. Raman Al Qaeda looks upon its continuing jihad against the so-called Crusaders --- thereby

meaning essentially the US, Israel and their supporters--- as a global intifada waged on many fronts and through many means. In this global jihad, Afghanistan, Somalia and Algeria are seen as battle fronts, which will determine the ultimate outcome. Afghanistan is seen as the core of the battle, Somalia as its southern front and Algeria as the Western front. 2. In a message disseminated on December 20, 2006, Ayman al-Zawahiri, the No.2 to Osama bin Laden in Al Qaeda, said: “Brothers in Islam and Jihad in Somalia: know that you are on the southern garrison of Islam, so don’t allow Islam to be attacked from your flank, and know that we are with you, and that the entire Muslim Ummah is with you. So don’t lose heart, or fall into despair, for you must dominate if you are true in faith. And know that you are fending off the same Crusade which is fighting your brothers in Islam in Chechnya, Afghanistan, Iraq, Palestine and Lebanon. So be resolute, be patient and be optimistic, for by Allah beside whom there is no other God, even if your enemies possess thousands of tons of iron and explosives, in their chests lie the hearts of mice. So be severe against them like Muhammad was. " 3. To keep the jihad going in Somalia is one of its important objectives. For this purpose, it uses not only recruits from the impoverished local population, but also from the Somali diaspora in the West----including the US--- as well as jihad-hardened cadres sent from the battle fronts in the Af-Pak region. The Tablighi Jamaat (TJ) of Pakistan has had a long history of contacts with the Muslim population in Somalia and East African countries just as it has with the Muslim population of Chechnya and Dagestan. Though the TJ itself does not indulge in acts of terrorism, it plays an important role in facilitating the ideological motivation of the population on behalf of Al Qaeda. 4. In September 2009, Al Shabaab, meaning “The Lads”, an organization of Somali youths, was reported to have disseminated through Islamic web sites usually identified with Al Qaeda a 48-minute video documentary in which it proclaimed its allegiance to Osama bin Laden. It derives its name “The Lads” from the fact that it used to be the youth wing of a fundamentalist organization called the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), which had established

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control over some parts of Somalia and was ultimately crushed by invading Ethiopian troops in 2006. While the elders of the UIC disappeared after being defeated by the better trained and better armed Ethiopian troops allegedly inspired and aided by the US, the Al Shabaab replaced the UIC as a born-again jihadi organization, which was determined to continue the jihad against the troops of the African Union, which had replaced the Ethiopian troops, and of the UN-backed local Government, which it viewed as apostate. 5. Though Somalis had participated in acts of suicide terrorism on behalf of Al Qaeda in other countries, suicide terrorism was unknown in Somalia itself till Al Shabaab made its appearance in 2006. Even though it proclaimed its loyalty to bin Laden only in September, 2009, it had carried out a number of acts of suicide terrorism against local Government targets as well as the peace-keeping troops of the African Union ever since the AU troops took over their peace-keeping responsibility in Somalia. Al Shabaab has been waging a two-front jihad---- against the AU troops and the local Government being protected by the AU troops. The first act of suicide terrorism took place on September 18, 2006. Since then, there have been 13 suicide attacks--- two in 2006, four in 2007, two in 2008 and five this year. 6. The Al Shabaab cadres, many of whom had allegedly served with the Afghan Mujahideen, the Taliban and Al Qaeda in the Af-Pak region, look upon their jihad as similar to the jihad waged by the Afghan Mujahideen against the Soviet troops and those of the Government of the then President Najibullah in the 1980s and the early 1990s. 7. In a serious attack of suicide terrorism, a male suicide bomber dressed as a woman managed to find his way into a graduation ceremony of medical students in a Mogadishu hotel on December 3, 2009, and blew himself up killing 19 persons, including three Ministers of the Cabinet of Prime Minister Omar Sharmarke of the UN-backed

Government. Even though no organization has so far claimed responsibility for the attack, Al Shabaab is strongly suspected by the local authorities. 8. Though there is so far no evidence of any nexus between Al Shabaab and the Somali pirates, the dangers of money earned from piracy going to the coffers of Al Qaeda and the availability in Somalia of sea-faring people who could be used by Al Qaeda for future acts of maritime terrorism cannot be ignored. 9. A Reuters report carried on December 4, 2009, by the “Daily Times” of Lahore has quoted Bethuel Kiplagat, who used to be Kenya’s special envoy to the Somalia peace process from 2003 to 2005, as saying as follows: “Suicide bombings are a worrying trend not only for Somalia but also the region. There has been a rise in fundamentalism in Somalia coming from the Middle East and Pakistan. There’s a worry Al Qaeda may be looking at Somalia as a new sanctuary.” 10. On March 16, 2009, Mohamed Mohamed of the BBC’s Somali section, reported as follows: “As well as alleged links to al-Qaeda it is said to have Arabs, Asians, other Africans and - America's FBI believes - Westerners among its ranks. These foreigners are said to be involved in training Al Sabaab recruits in various aspects of guerrilla warfare, including suicide bombings and booby traps.” 11. On February 29, 2008, the then US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice designated Al Shabaab as a Foreign Terrorist Organization under Section 219 of the Immigration and Nationality Act.

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CIA: Risk Takers & Not Risk-Seekers

By B. Raman

When Robert Gates, the

present US Defence Secretary, was the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), George Bush, the then President (1988-92), had visited the CIA headquarters and addressed its officers. In his speech welcoming the President, Gates described the CIA officers as risk-takers and not risk-seekers. This quote from his welcome address is inscribed at the entrance to the CIA building to inspire and motivate future entrants to the CIA.

2. The Soviet, Russian and West European intelligence agencies too have the reputation of being risk-takers. A risk-taking external

intelligence agency posts its officers for intelligence collection in remote areas and danger spots and the officers willingly go to such places. Risk-avoiding agencies keep their officers confined to the safe precincts of diplomatic and consular missions, where the risks faced are minimal.

3. The best professionals of the CIA are posted in areas of conflict and not in areas of comfort. There is never a shortage of volunteers to serve in areas of conflict. They are generally attached to US military units deployed in such areas and use the protection provided by such units to do their intelligence collection and special operations work. The CIA keeps rotating them frequently so that its officers are not required to serve in dangerous areas for a long time. The officers, who volunteer for such posts, also have the confidence that their Agency will look after their families during their absence from the US and will not keep them in dangerous areas for too long.

4. The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) has published a collation of CIA officers who were known to have been killed since 1965 in the performance of their duty. A total of 35 were killed---two in Washington DC and the remaining 33 abroad. The two in Washington DC were killed outside the CIA headquarters in January, 1993, by a disgruntled Pakistani Mir Aimal Kansi. He had allegedly worked for the CIA against the Soviet troops in Afghanistan in the 1980s and had some grievances relating to his rehabilitation after the Soviet withdrawal. He went to the entrance of the CIA headquarters and indiscriminately opened fire as the staff were coming to work in the morning and then managed to escape to Pakistan. He was arrested by the Pakistani authorities and extradited to the US. He was sentenced to death by a US court. The sentence was carried out in the US and the body returned to his relatives for burial. He was given a heroes’ burial in his home village by the local Pakistanis.

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5. Of the 33 CIA personnel who were killed abroad while performing their duty since 1965, two were the staff of a contractor working for the CIA in Afghanistan and the remaining 31 were regular members of the staff of the Agency. Since 1965, the CIA has suffered the largest number of fatalities in Afghanistan---- a total of 11, nine of them regular members of its staff and the remaining two employees of a CIA contractor. The two deaths in Washington DC were also Afghanistan-related. Thus, the CIA’s role in Afghanistan has resulted in the deaths 13 of the 35 officers killed since 1965.

6. Next to Afghanistan, duties in the Lebanon resulted in the death of nine officers in the 1980s, including that of the then station chief of the CIA in Beirut. The war in Vietnam in the 1960s and 1970s resulted in the deaths of seven officers. The remaining six officers were killed in a plane crash in Africa while allegedly helping the anti-communist insurgents in Angola. Surprisingly, there are no known fatalities incurred by the CIA in Iraq since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003.

7. The absence of CIA fatalities in Iraq and the large number of fatalities incurred by the CIA in Afghanistan could be attributed to the following reasons:

a) The CIA personnel posted in Iraq totally depend on the US forces for their physical security while performing their duties. They do not depend on Iraqi personnel. In Afghanistan, they depend largely on American personnel, but there is also a limited involvement of Afghan personnel in protecting them.

b) In Iraq, the intelligence agencies of

the US Defence Department play a more active role in intelligence collection and special operations. The casualties incurred in Iraq are essentially those of the agencies of the Pentagon. In Afghanistan, CIA officers play a very active role in intelligence collection and in facilitating the unmanned Drone strikes in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan.

c) Individual anti-US officers of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), which has had a long history of co-operation with the CIA, know how to identify CIA officers working clandestinely under cover. They expose their identity to Al Qaeda and the Taliban.

8. The latest incident in the Khost area of Afghanistan involving the death of seven CIA officers at the hands of an Afghan suicide bomber would be a major loss to the CIA at a critical time in the “war” against Al Qaeda and the Taliban. The CIA officers succeeding them would have to start literally from the scratch in building up a new network of contacts. The contacts of the officers, who have been killed, would now be under a question mark due to suspicion regarding the role of any of them in facilitating the suicide bombing.

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