Jamie Morison

Polar Science Center, University of Washington

morison@apl.washington.edu

PresentationSEARCH Open Science Meeting

Seattle, WashingtonWednesday, October 29, 2003

SEARCH Implementation

SEARCH

Motivation

Axiom - The Arctic has been characterized in recent decades by a complex of significant, interrelated, pan-Arctic changes (Unaami).

Hypothesis 1 - Unaami is related to a spin up of the atmospheric Polar Vortex.

Hypothesis 2 - Unaami is a component of climate change.

Hypothesis 3 - Feedbacks among the ocean, the land, and the atmosphere are critical to Unaami.

Hypothesis 4 - The physical changes of Unaami have large impacts on the Arctic ecosystems and society.

Implementation

To test these hypotheses and help society deal with change requires a program long-term, large-scale observations, analysis, and modeling.

SEARCHImplementation Strategyhttp://psc.apl.washington.edu/search/index.html

Activitieshttp://psc.apl.washington.edu/search/Activities/activities.html

E A RC H

ASR - Arctic System Reanalysis

SEARCH InteragencyProgram Management

Committee

SEARCH Science SteeringCommittee

Responding toChange Panel

Understanding ChangePanel

Detecting ChangePanel

Draft (12/3/02)SEARCH Organization Chart

e.g., SEARCH Coordination Office

SEARCH Activitiy Area, Arctic System Reanalysis

WG

WG

CLIVARWorking Group

ACSYS/CliCLiason

WG

WG

WG

WG

Partnerships

e.g.

CLIVAR

ACSYS/CliC

WGLinkages and Global Coupling

Distributed Marine Observatories

Distributed Terrestrial Observatories

Large-scale Atmospheric Observation

Social and Economic Interaction

Defining and Quantifying Unaami

WGSocial Response

SSC Present and New (2004)

Present SSCJamie Morison (Chair)Lou Codispoti (ExCom)Jim Overland (ExCom)Mark Serreze (ExCom)Vera AlexanderTom DelworthBob DicksonHajo EickenJackie GrebmeierKonrad HughenGeorge HuntJack KruseDennis LettenmaierDave McGuirePeter SchlosserGus ShaverJohn Walsh

New SSCPeter Schlosser (Chair)Larry Hamilton (Vice-Chair)Jamie Morison (Past Chair)Bob DicksonJennifer FrancisJackie GrebmeierKonrad HughenGeorge HuntDennis LettenmaierJim MaslanikDave McGuirePeter RhinesGus ShaverKoni SteffenJohn Walsh

Past Members: Dave Battisti, Ed Carmack - Humphrey Melling, Doug Martinson, Jonathan Overpeck, Charlie Vorosmarty

DQU: Detecting and Quantifying Unaami and Other Modes of Variability

Use paleoclimate, historical, archeological records as well as more recent observations to better define the scope of Unaami and its relation to other modes of variability.

DQU Proxy Sites

DTO: Distributed Terrestrial Observatories

Make large-scale atmospheric, hydrological, glaciological, and ecosystem observations in the terrestrial environment.

Distributed Terrestrial Observatories

Russia

Nor

AlaskaEureka

Alert

Greenland

Canada

Thule

Tiksi

Arcic Ocean

Distributed TerrestrialObservatories

Kolyma R

Lena R

Ob R

Mackenzie R

Yukon R

Yenisey R

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x x

x

x

x

xx

x Extensive Site

Intermediate Site(e.g., ITEX, CEON)

Intensive Site

Barrow

Cherksiy

Svalbard

Resolute

Abisko

BonanzaToolik

DMO: Distributed Marine Observatories

Make large-scale atmospheric, oceanographic, sea ice and ecosystem observations in the marine environment.

Distributed Marine Observatories

Norway

Eureka

Alert

Greenland

Canada

Thule

Barrow

Svalbard

Resolute

AbiskoKolyma R

Lena R

Ob R

Mackenzie R

Yukon R

Yenisey R

Russia

Tiksi

Cherksiy

Distributed MarineObservatories

IABP Drifting Buoys

2

34

5

10

6

7

8

11

12

1

Ocean Pathway Moorings

9

13

15

14

16

Cross Shelf Exchange Moorings

17

20

19

18

Basin Moorings

21

22

23

24

25

Gateway Moorings

42

41

43

4445

46

Shelf Moorings & Surveys

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

35

34

3337

36

Clic Hydrographic SectionsOther Sections

ASOF Hydrographic Sections

38

39

40

Automated Drifting StationsUpward Looking Sonars

LAO: Large-scale Atmospheric Observatories

Make large-scale atmospheric observations beyond the the marine or terrestrial observing systems.

Large-scale Atmospheric Observatories

Norway

Greenland

Canada

Thule

Resolute

AbiskoKolyma R

Lena R

Ob R

Mackenzie R

Yukon R

Yenisey R

Cherksiy

Large-scale AtmosphericObservatoriesAlaska

Russia

Eureka

IABP Drifting Buoys

Automated Drifting Stations

DTO Intensive Site

DTO Intermediate Site

x DTO Extensive Site

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x x

x

x

x

xxBonanza

Toolik

GCOS - GTOSGCOS - GTOS

Remote Sensing, e.g. TOVSRemote Sensing, e.g. TOVS

AlertAlertBarrowBarrow

SvalbardSvalbard

Major Weather StationsMajor Weather Stations

TiksiTiksi

LGC: Linkages and Global Coupling

Use modeling and analysis * to elucidate the connections between Unaami and global climate and the connections within the arctic system as they pertain to Unaami.

* use DQU, DMU, DTO, process studies as required

ASR: Arctic System Reanalysis

A program of data assimilation and modeling to develop optimum estimates of difficult or impossible to observe critical parameters of the arctic system.

ASR: Arctic System Reanalysis

Optimal

Assimilation or

Filtering Method

Observations

Optimal

Estimates

Model

Output

Nudging

Arctic Subsystem

Model

(e.g. Ice-Ocean Model)

SEI: Social and Economic Interaction

Examine the interactions of the physical and biological elements of Unaami and the social and economic systems within the context of other forces of social change.

SOR: Social Response

Research social and economic adaptation to climate change in the past and apply research on Unaami to economic and social concerns in the future. Find ways to communicate the results of SEARCH to decision makers.

SEI SOR

CommunityCo-ops

IndustryCo-ops

Decision Makers

Information

SEI, SOR and Co-ops

Implementation “Opportunities”

Internationalization

Necessary. How do we do it?

Fidelity of Action with Plans

Important for a coordinated long-term program. How do we do it?