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DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
23.11. 2012, Forum
Iskorištavanje obnovljivih izvora energije, energetska učinkovitost i smanjenje emisija
stakleničkih plinova kao pokretač razvoja “zelene ekonomije” u Hrvatskoj do 2050.
Goran Krajačić, Tomislav Pukšec, Boris Ćosić,
Tomislav Novosel, Iva Ridjan, Neven Duić
Sveučilište u Zagrebu - Fakultet strojarstva i brodogradnje Zagreb, Croatia
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
CO2 emissions – 2°C, 4°C or 6°C increase? IEA Energy Technology Perspectives
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Fully economically viable but not being done? IEA Energy Technology Perspectives
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Fossil fuel subsidies – 10 times bigger than RES subsidies
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Estimate of Fossil Fuel-related Subsidies
Country Energy related subsidies as % of GDP
Albania 7-8% Bosnia-Herzegovina 9-10%
Croatia 5-6% Macedonia 8-9% Montenegro 10-11%
Serbia 7-9% Kosovo 35-36%
Aleksandar Kovacevic, UNDP: Fossil Fuel Subsidies in the Western Balkans
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Electricity price = average cost
Demand Supply
HE
NE Coal
Import Gas
Fuel oil
Marginal cost
Base load
Wholesale price
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Electricity price = average cost
Demand Supply
HE
NE Coal
Import Gas
Fuel oil Marginal cost
Peak load
Wholesale price
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Security of energy supply • Import dependence from 50% to 70% by 2030
Employment and regional development policies
• Deindustrialization and trade liberalization • “Boosting growth and jobs by meeting our
climate change commitments” Mitigation of global warming Environmental protection Sustainable development
EU energy context
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
80% lower GHG emissions by 2050 Decarbonising power RES 40%-100% + nuclear + CCS
Buildings – nearly zero energy from 2018 Electrification of transport Roadmap 2050 RE-thinking 2050: 100% renewable
Torwards 2050
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Decoupling is possible – Danish case
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Buildings nearly zero energy from 2018 Reconstruction rate 1-3% per year Transport CO2 emission regulation Electrification of personal cars Biofuels and synthetic fuels for road cargo,
shipping and aviation Modal shift Industry, appliances, lighting - BAT
Energy efficiency
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Izuzetni potencijal za energetske uštede u narednom periodu!
Novogradnja strogo pridržavanje postojećih i svih budućih propisa (nakon 2020 prijelaz na skoro pa energetski neutralnu gradnju)
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
PJ
Year
Korisna energija - referentni scenarij Korisna energija bez skoro pa energetski neutralnih zgrada
Zadovoljiti lokalno OiE (scenarij 20% porasta specifičnog životnog prostora)
Buildings – energy for heating
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Buildings – energy for heating
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
PJ
Korisna energija s 3% godišnje obnove Korisna energija s 2% godišnje obnoveKorisna energija s 1% godišnje obnove
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Buildings – energy demand
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Buildings – fuel mix (heat pumps scenario)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Tekuća goriva Ugljen Biomasa Solarna PTV Područno grijanje Prirodni plin Električna energija
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Transport – fuel demand
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Transport – fuel mix
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Decoupling is possible – Danish case
Final demand
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Buildings District heating, heat pumps, solar thermal,
PV, biomass, grid as storage Transport Electrification of personal cars Biofuels and synthetic fuels for road cargo,
shipping and aviation Industry Electricity, biomass and waste, synthetic fuels
Energy supply
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Power supply Wind, PV, hydro, biomass and waste Storage Heat storage - integration of heat and power
systems Electric vehicles and other flexible demand Synthetic fuels (?) Pumped hydro storage
Energy supply
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Electricity demand 2050 (TWh)
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Electricity capacity (MW)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2020 2030 2040 2050
MW
TE + CHP plin TE UgljenMale hidroelektrane Protočne hidroelektraneAkumulacijske hidroelektrane Reverzibilne hidroelektraneGeotermalne elektrane CHP otpad, biomasa i bioplinVjetroelektrane Solarne fotonaponske elektrane
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Electricity fuel mix 2050 (TWh)
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Primary energy supply 2010-2050 (TWh)
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Yearly cost of energy sector
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2020 2030 2040 2050
M€
Godišnji investicijski trošak
Fiksni trošak
Varijabilni trošak
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
31031
58493
125134
191810
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
2020 2030 2040 2050
radn
a mje
sta
potre
bna
za v
ođen
je i o
drža
vanj
e po
stro
jenj
a/op
rem
e i pr
oizv
odnj
u g
oriva
Dire
ktna
rdna
mjes
ta u
idus
triji
za p
roizv
odnj
u op
rem
e i
izgra
dnju
pos
trojen
ja (is
kaza
ni u
čovje
k/go
dina
)
Izgradnja postrojenja i proizvodnja opreme Vođenje, održavanje i proizvodnja goriva
Jobs in energy generation sector
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Tri razine generiranih radnim mjesta: • Direktno generirana u ind. građevinskog materijala • Indirektno generirana u sektorima prateće industrije • Radna mjesta inducirana rastom spomenutih industrija u neindustrijskim
sektorima
Jobs in residential construction sector
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
New RES Directive
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
New RES Directive
EU electricity generation installed capacity net change,
2000-2011 [MW], EWEA
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Electricity price = marginal cost
Demand Supply
HE
NE
Coal
Import Gas
Fuel oil
Marginal cost
Base load
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Demand Supply
HE
NE
Coal
Imports Gas
Fuel oil
Marginal cost Base load – windy night
Wind
Electricity price = marginal cost
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Coal + wind
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Wind: Coal vs. gas?
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
PV revolution
MW
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Wind: Coal vs. gas?
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Zaključci
Povećanje energetske efikasnosti nije samo kreativno knjigovodstvo, nego stvarno dolazi kroz propise o efikasnosti vozila i zgrada, te uređaja, te je potencijal za veliki broj radnih mjesta Integracijom električnog, toplinskog i
transportnog energetskog sustava, uz skladištenje energije moguće je doći blizu 100% obnovljivom energetskom sustavu u HR do 2050
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Zaključci
Ostaje problem cestovnog teretnog, brodskog i avionskog transporta koji ne mogu biti elektrificirani Proizvodnja sintetskih goriva elektrolizom
CO2 je trenutno najzanimljivija ideja u znanosti – nije još spremna za primjenu Bez sintetskih goriva možemo doći do
80% obnovljivih energetskih sustava što je bio zadatak na početku ….
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!!!
Hvala na pažnji!
Autori se zahvaljuju Hrvatskoj zakladi za znanost (HRZZ) na financiranju projekta i-RESEV (powerlab.fsb.hr/iresev) . Prikazani rezultati ne odražavaju stajalište HRZZ-a.
