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IRP 2010 Update SCENARIOS
October 2013
Background
• IRP 2010-30 is a living Strategy
– To be revised regularly, preferably every 2 years
• Focus in 2012 on Integrated Energy Plan; critical
input into next round of IRP
• Proposal to have a review instead of a full
iteration, including new scenarios and some
changes in inputs and assumptions to assess
impact on IRP outcomes
2
The Update Process
3
Policy Adjusted
IRP
Updated
IRP
2010 Rooftop PV
Solar Park
Source: EPRI updated cost report (2012), BCG PV report (2010), EPMD calculations
PF Coal(with FGD)
FBC Coal(with FGD)
IGCC Nuclear OCGT CCGT WindCSP
(Parabolic, 9hrs)
PVcrystalline(fixed tilt)
Inflation 2,655 2,234 3,682 5,554 590 863 2,156 7,599 3,130
IRP 2010 17785 14965 24670 37205 3955 5780 14445 50910 20971
IRP Update 21572 21440 29282 46841 4357 6406 15394 61176 19250
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
Ov
ern
igh
t cap
ital
co
sts
(R
/kW
) Step 1 – IRP 2010 Technology Cost Assumptions
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Net
Se
nto
ut
in S
ou
th A
fric
a (
TW
h)
System Operator High
System Operator Moderate
System Operator Low
CSIR High
CSIR Mod
CSIR Low
Actual
Step 2 – IRP 2010 Expected Energy Assumption
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Actual GDP
Expected GDP (High)
Expected GDP (Moderate)
Expected GDP (Low)
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
320
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Actual Manufacturing
Expected (Moderate)
Expected (Low)
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Actual Iron Ore Expected Iron Ore
Actual Coal Expected Coal
Actual PGM Expected PGM
Actual Gold Expected Gold
Gross value added (GDP), constant (2005) Rbn
Manufacturing gross value added, constant (2005) Rbn Mining production indices, 2005 = 100
Step 2 – IRP 2010 Economic Assumptions
0.1
0.11
0.12
0.13
0.14
0.15
0.16
0.17
0.18
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
202
0
Ele
ctr
icit
y I
nte
nsit
y (
kW
h/2
005 Z
AR
)
Expected Intensity (SO Low)
Expected Intensity (SO Moderate)
Expected Intensity (CSIR Moderate)
Actual Intensity
Step 2 – IRP 2010 Electricity Intensity Assumptions
Step 3 – IRP 2010 Fleet Availability Assumption
Source: Eskom’s interim results presentation – November 2012
IRP assumption
(86.0)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60K
om
ati
Cam
de
n
Gro
otv
lei
Arn
ot
Hend
rina
Kriel
Matla
Duvha
Tutu
ka
Leth
ab
o
Matim
ba
Ken
dal
Maju
ba
Koe
berg
Gariep
Van
der
Klo
of
Dra
ken
sberg
Palm
iet
Acacia
Port
Rex
Anke
rlig
Gou
rikw
a
Age of Eskom Generation Fleet
Step 4 – Testing the life extension of existing fleet
Step 5 – Allow the Model to Balance Demand and Supply
“Releasing Determinations” Committed in IRP 2010 Update Non IRP
Coal
(PF, FBC,
imports,
own build)
Nuclear Import
hydro
Gas –
CCGT
Peak –
OCGT1 Wind 2 CSP Solar PV Coal Other
DoE
Peaker
Other
Renew.
Co-
generation
MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW
2010 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 380 260 0 0 0
2011 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 679 130 0 0 0
2012 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 300 303 0 0 0 0
2013 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 300 823 0 0 0 0
2014 0 0 0 0 0 800 0 300 722 0 0 25 0
2015 0 0 0 0 0 800 200 0 1444 333 1020 0 0
2016 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 722 999 0 0 0
2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2168 0 0 0 0
2018 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 723 0 0 0 0
2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1446 0 0 0 0
2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 723 0 0 0 0
2021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2022 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Update of IRP 2010 leads to more CSP, PV, and less
need for nuclear installed capacity by 2030 Comparison of IRP 2010 with Updated IRP
4.3
CSP
Nuclear
Exist. Coal
PV
3.7
9.8
Gas
PumpSt
3.3
2.9
0.7
37.7
Base Case of
IRP 2010 review
Peaking
6.0
84.4
6.7
6.9
IRP 2010
93.0
8.4
9.2
11.4
34.8
0.9 4.8
1.2 2.4
2.9
10.8
Wind
48.2
1.9
36.9
0.6 2.2
Status quo
5.0 Hydro 6.3
2.5 New Coal 1.6
2013 2030
Installed capacity
in GW
Note: “Peaking” includes today’s Diesel-fired OCGTs, future gas-fired OCGTs and Demand-side Management (DSM);
“Existing Coal” includes Medupi and Kusile as well as life-extension of existing coal-fired power stations
By 2030, 17 GW of capacity will retire – on top of
already committed new-build programmes, 40 GW
additional new-build is required
4.3 2.9
6.9
6.0 3.3
9.8
Net new build
until 2030
39.7
9.1
4.8 1.5
4.3 3.5
4.7 3.0
8.8
Committed new-
build until 2030
13.6
8.6 1.3
1.0
1.3 1.1
Decommissioning
until 2030
-17.2
14.4
2.7
2030
48.2
1.6 5.0
0.0
2013
84.4
40.2
6.7 3.7
0.0
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro
Gas
PumpSt
Peaking
Wind
CSP
PV
Other
Updated IRP 2010
13
Cost Implications
13
Key Assumptions
System Snapshot Year 2050
Category Assumption
Demand
CSIR “Green Shoots”
forecast: ~400 TWh in 2030
and ~525 TWh in 2050
CO2 Limited to 275 million tonnes
per year from 2025
Renewables Annual new-build capacity for
wind & PV limited to 1 GW/yr
Nuclear “base cost” assumption of 56-
57 mR/MW (i.e. R 90 bn/unit)
0.50.50.60.60.70.80.9
290
280
270
0
Absolute in
million tonnes
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 13
1.0
50
30
10
80
30
10
50
20
40
60
0
40
90
70
20
Peaking
25
17
11
16
25
4 10
7 3
11
10
37
PV
GW EoY
Nuclear
Exist. Coal
New Coal
Hydro
CSP
7 3
Gas
4 5
4 2
7
PumpSt
7 Wind
Capacity & Energy Mix
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
TWh
2050
527
2040
483
2030
412
2020
316
2013
263
O&M Fuel
PV 498 Wind 576
Nuclear 858
Coal 5 216
Hydro 243 Gas 267 CSP
CAPEX
287 Peaking 173
2 455
656
1.040.960.890.860.71
50 40 30 20 13
Ø tariff
in R/kWh
60
80
40
20
0
20
40
177
2 447
7 428
6 900
5 829 3 640 646
1 008
2 000
Installed capacity in GW
Full-load hours
per year
Share
CO2-free2
In the base case, 28% of energy in 2050 will come
from renewables; 30% of total bill is coal-fuel costs
dis
patc
hable
not
dis
p.
CO2 Emissions
Total area
= 527 TWh
CO2 intensity (t/MWh)
CO2 cap
CO2 actuals
Total cash outlay until 2050: R 8 100 bn
28%
44%
5%
10%
7%
12%
19%
31%
26%
43%
Share RE1
1. Energy share of RE (renewables) = PV, wind, CSP, hydro 2. Energy share of CO2-neutral sources = RE + nuclear
Note: “Peaking” includes today’s Diesel-fired OCGTs, future gas-fired OCGTs and Demand-side Management (DSM)
Coal Gas PumpSt Peaking Nuclear Hydro CSP Wind PV
Peak Load
Scenarios (1) – Electricity demand
14
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
20052007200920112013201520172019202120232025202720292031203320352037203920412043204520472049
An
nu
al e
lect
rici
ty n
et
sen
t-o
ut
(TW
h)
SO IRP 2010 Moderate (Original)
SO IRP 2010 Low (Original)
SO IRP 2010 (Update) Moderate
CSIR - Green Shoots
SO IRP 2010 (Update) Low
CSIR - Weathering the Storm
2,8% 4,5%
Economic
Growth
(CAGR)
Electricity
Demand
Growth
(CAGR)
2,8% 5,4%
Net
sent-out
(TWh)
454
425
1,8% 2,9% 348
2,7% 5,4% 409
2,4% 5,4% 622
1,9% 3,7% 522
1,3% 2,3% 414
New SO Moderate
New SO Low
Weathering the Storm (New)
Green Shoots (New IRP Base)
IRP 2010 Moderate
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.2019
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
20
40
20
42
20
44
20
46
20
48
20
50
Ele
ctr
icit
y I
nte
nsit
y (
kW
h/2
005 Z
AR
)
Weathering the Storm
Green Shoots
SO Moderate
Scenarios (2): Electricity intensity
SO Moderate
Weathering the Storm
Green Shoots
(Base Case)
Scenarios (3): Carbon mitigation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
35020
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
20
33
20
34
20
35
20
36
20
37
20
38
20
39
20
40
20
41
20
42
20
43
20
44
20
45
20
46
20
47
20
48
20
49
20
50
An
nu
al
CO
2 e
mis
sio
ns
(M
T/a
)
Constant Emissions
Moderate Decline
Advanced Decline
Scenarios (4)
17
Scenario Assumption
Updated IRP • New EPRI costs
• CSIR Green Shoots Forecast
• New 80:10:10 outage plans for existing fleet
• Life extension and FGD retrofitting of existing fleet included as options
• Only Renewables IPP Programme Round 1 & 2, DOE Peaker are forced; all
other determinations including Nuclear are relaxed
• All other assumptions similar to IRP 2010
SO Moderate As with Updated IRP, but using the SO Moderate forecast
SO Low As with Updated IRP, but using the SO Low forecast
Weathering the
Storm
As with Updated IRP, but using the CSIR Weathering the Storm forecast
Constant emissions Same as Updated IRP (275 MT/a carbon emissions limit throughout the period)
Moderate decline As with Updated IRP, but allowing moderate decline in annual emission limits to 201
MT/a in 2050
Advanced decline As with Updated IRP, but allowing advanced decline in annual emission limits to 140
MT/a in 2050
Carbon Tax Removing all carbon emissions limits, apply carbon tax (starting at R40/ton in 2015
(at 2012 Rands), escalating to R117/ton in 2025 (at 2012 Rands))
Scenarios (5)
18
Scenario Assumption
Regional Hydro As with Updated IRP, forcing in 2500 MW from Inga in 2022 and 1200 MW from
Kobong (pumped storage) in 2023
Big Gas As with Moderate Decline, but allowing for shale gas (unlimited) and at a declining
price (from R92/GJ in 2025 to R50/GJ in 2035 as scale exploitation occurs), and an
additional development of regional gas in the Sofala field (an additional 800 MW at
R70/GJ).
Fuel price sensitivity As with Moderate Decline, but coal for new coal-fired generation at R25/GJ.
Learning rates
sensitivity
As with Moderate Decline, but with the learning on technologies occurs in a more
restrained manner
Nuclear Cost
sensitivity
As with Moderate Decline, but with the a higher nuclear capital cost at $7000/kW
Rooftop PV As with Moderate Decline, but force in an assumed amount of PV installation from
households acting independently up to 29 000 MW in 2050
Solar Park As with Moderate Decline, but force in 5000 MW of CSP (1000 MW per year from
2018 to 2022)
19
Scenarios (6): Overview
CO2 Emission Cap (cap in 2050 in million tonnes per year)
140 201 none
Lo
ad
Fo
recast
(de
ma
nd
in
20
50
in
TW
h/y
r)
525
625
444
415
Carbon
Tax
Adv.
Decline
SO Mo-
derate
Weathe-
ring the
Storm
SO Low
275
Regional
Hydro
Rooftop
PV
Solar
Park
Base
Case
Big Gas
Coal
Price
RE
Learning Nuc Cost
Mod.
Decline
Way forward
• Stakeholders’ comments on:
– Input assumptions
– Scenarios
20
Thank you.
Questions?
21
Nuclear cost range: Capital Costs
22
In IRP 2010 Update the $5300/kW (2010 US$) is
escalated to $5800/kW (2012 US$)