Ipsos Synovate Polls_November 2012

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SPEC Barometer Survey:

Prepared by Ipsos Synovate Kenya

Release Date: 20th November 2012

2012 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and

may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

Synovate is now Ipsos Synovate


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Country conditions

Governance issues

Political Attitudes and Choices

ICC issues

Contents

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Survey Methodology

Dates of polling 10th

16th

November 2012

Sample Size 2,000 respondents

Sampling methodologyRandom, Multi-stage stratified using PPS

(proportionate to population size)

4

,

and Rural areas

Data collection

methodology

Sampling error+/-2.2 with a 95% confidence level

Face-to-Face interviews at the household level


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Sample Structure Statistics

Province Sample Frame statistics

(September 2012)

%Population Census as at 2009

Adults (18 years +)

%

Central 262 132,548,038 13

Coast 176 91,711,549 9

Eastern 298 152,907,293 15

Nairobi 210 10

5

, ,

North Eastern 96 5929,158 5

Nyanza 263 132,547,980 13

Rift Valley 493 25

4,795,482 25Western 202 10

1,980,090 10

TOTAL 2000 100 19,462,360 100


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Quality Control Measures

Pre-testing questionnaire (testing the validity of the questionsamongst a small sample)

Physical back-checks (re-visiting the respondents)

Interviewers accompanied by supervisor

eas o e survey respon en s ac -c ec e rougtelephone calls i.e. CATI back-checks

Data entered through scanning technology (eliminates errors and

ensures fast turn around)

Data checks for consistency

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Ipsos Political Polls

Sponsors:

Ipsos Synovate funded the November 2012 opinion poll

Regular polling:

Ipsos Synovate commitment is that we will continue

providing opinion poll results every 4 6 weeks in therun up to the election .

Last poll was released on 2nd October 2012

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Ipsos Political Polls SMS Short Code 7560

Short-code for Ipsos Opinion Polls Results

Ipsos Synovate poll results are now available throughan SMS short 7560

Rationale

Making information more available to general public even

a er me a r e ng

In the past Ipsos poll results have been published on ourwebsite and there is low access to internet and higheraccess to mobile phone

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Respondent Demographic Profiles

10%

9%

13%

25%

5%

15%

13%

10%

Nairobi

Coast

Nyanza

Rift Valley

North Eastern

Eastern

Central

Western

Region

5%

15%

22%

15%

24%

No formal school

Some primary education

Primary educationcompleted

Some secondaryeducation

Secondary educationcompleted

Education

level

51%

49%

28%

30%

18%

25%

37%

63%

Female

Male

18 - 24

25 - 34

35 - 44

45+

Urban

Rural

9

Gender

Age

Setting

6%

8%

2%

2%

84%

college (not university)

Completed mid levelcollege (Not university)

Some Universityeducation

University educationcompleted

Own a mobile phoneMobilephone

ownershipBase: All Respondents (n=2,000)


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Country

10

Conditions


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In your opinion, what is the most serious problem facing Kenyacurrently? (By Total)

11Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)


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During the last five years, have the general economic conditionsfor you and your family? (By Total)



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During the last five years, have the general economic conditions for youand your family.? (By total, setting and region)

% saying their general economic condition has

"worsened"



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Experience with crime

Have you been a victim of crime in thelast three months?

Did you report it to the police?

15

Base: All Respondents (n=2,000) Base: Crime victims (n=203)


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What is the most common criminal activity in your local area?(By Total)



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Governance Issues

17


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Has the new constitution changed life for you in any way?(By Total)

No; 56%

Yes; 39%

Not sure; 5%



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What is the main change that you have experienced or noticed,whether good or bad? (By those who said YES)

30%

14%

11%

8%

More freedom/democracy

More public attention to gender/women

Improved judiciary

More accountability

8%

7%

7%

4%

4%

Economic improvement

Less corruption

More efficient/faster service from

government departments

Better police performance

More poverty/higher costs of government

19Base: Those who indicated any change (n =775)


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What is the main change that you have experienced or noticed, whethergood or bad?(Top 3 mentions by those who said YES: by region and gender)

56%

46%50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

More freedom/democracy More public attention to gender/women Improved judiciary

30% 32%

20%

31%27%

36%

19%

25%

35%

14%

10%5%

11%

28%

18% 16%

40%

26%

5%11%

21%

13%9%

12%

0%

11%8% 8%

5%

16%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

20Base: Those who indicated any change (n =775)

A f h li h / fid i h i i i


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Awareness of helicopter crash / confidence in the investigation

94%

Which senior cabinet minister

(together with 5 other people died in ahelicopter crash a few moths ago?

How confident are you that the real truth as towhat caused the accident will ever be discovered

and revealed? ?

19%26%

40%

15%

% who couldname Saitoti or

Ojode

% who are "veryconfident"

% who are"somewhatconfident"

% who have "noconfidence"

% who are "notsure" / NR

21

Base = 94%

Base: All Respondents (n=2,000) Base: Those aware (n=1.881)


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Political Attitudes and

22

Choices

El t l P d d i t d d ti i ti


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Electoral Preparedness and intended participation(By Total)

92%91%

60%

80%

100%

Do you have an Identity card? Do you intend to register to vote when thevoter registration exercise kicks off?

0%

20%

40%

% saying they have an identity card % saying they intend to vote

23

Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)

H i t t i th t f th t l ti t


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How important is the outcome of the next election to youpersonally?(By Total)

78%

40%

60%

80%

100%

18%

3% 1%0%

20%

Very important Somewhatimportant Not sure No Response


Att d f P liti l R lli i K


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How many rallies have you attended?

61%

33%

7%

One political rally Two to threepolitical rallies

More than 3political rallies

Yes,16%

No;84%

Have you attended any presidentialcandidate campaign rally in the last 3months? (By Total)

Attendance of Political Rallies in Kenya

25Base = 16%; Those indicating that they have attended a political rally in the last 3 months (n=312)

46%

23% 20%15% 12%

7% 4% 3%7%

Raila Odinga UhuruKenyatta

William Ruto KalonzoMusyoka

MusaliaMudavadi

PeterKenneth

EugeneWamalwa

MarthaKarua

Others

For which candidate / candidates?

Whi h liti l t d f l l t t if ?


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Which political party do you feel closest to, if any?(By Total)

32%

22%

18%

10%

6%

3% 2% 1% 1% 2%3%

ODM TNA URP Wiper Democratic

Party

UDF PNU KANU NarcKenya

KenyaNational

Congress

Others None



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Whi h li i l d f l l if ?


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Which political party do you feel closest to if any? -Time Series

48%50%

60%

KANU Narc Kenya

ODM ODM Kenya / Wiper Democratic Party

PNU TNA

UDF URP

Kenya National Congress Others

None

1% 1% 1% 1%4% 2% 2% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1%1%

2% 4% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 2% 1%

43% 41%

38%

41%

33% 33%31%

34%32%

35%

32%

7% 8% 7%

2%

7%9%

4%5% 5% 6%

4%

6%

21% 22% 21% 18% 21%23%

20%22%

13%

5%

2% 2%0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

16%

27%

22%

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 04% 4% 3%

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

10%

6%

10%

22% 21%

17%

36%

14%

23%

33%

27% 28%

17%15%

18%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Political Part Affiliation Time Series


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Political Party Affiliation Time Series

72%

84% 85% 82%

% saying they support any political party

Apr 2012 Jul 2012 Sept 2012 Nov 2012

29Base: All Respondents

Apart from President Kibaki if presidential elections were held now whom


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Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whomwould you vote for if that person was a candidate?(By Total)

33%

26%30%

40%

50%

36%

30%

September 2012 survey

November 2012 survey

30

9% 8%

4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1%

11%

0%

10%


6%5%

7%1% 3% 1%

1% 1%



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Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whomwould you vote for if that person was a candidate?(By Region)

31


Raila Odinga Uhuru Kenyatta William RutoKalonzoMusyoka

MusaliaMudavadi

Peter Kenneth Undecided

Nairobi 41% 23% 3% 7% 5% 9% 7%

Coast 51% 9% 2% 4% 1% 2% 28%

Nyanza 76% 6% 0% 1% 1% 3% 9%

Rift Valley 23% 24% 33% 1% 3% 3% 9%

North Eastern 47% 29% 7% 4% 0% 0% 6%

Eastern 10% 32% 2% 38% 2% 1% 9%

Central 6% 73% 0% 1% 2% 3% 7%

Western 40% 2% 0% 1% 24% 1% 21%



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Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whomwould you vote for if that person was a candidate? - Time Series

60%

80%

100%

Raila Odinga Kalonzo Musyoka Uhuru Kenyatta

William Ruto Martha Karua Musalia Mudavadi

Eugene Wamalwa Peter Kenneth Prof James Ole Kiyapi

Others None

32

36% 36%

48%

42%

38%

32%34%

32%

34%

33%36%

33%

8% 8%

14% 14%

18% 21%

24%

22% 22%

23%

30%

26%

7%

11% 10%

4%

8%11% 10% 10%

8%

12%

6%9%

6% 5%7%

5% 6% 5% 5% 4% 5% 4% 3% 2%0% 0%

2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0%

5%7% 7%

4%4%1% 1% 2%

3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1%0% 0% 0% 0% 0%2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

3%0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

Mar 2010 Jul 2010 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jul 2011 Oct 2011 Dec 2011 April 2012 Jul 2012 Sept 2012 Nov 2012

Of all the possible presidential candidates which one would make you most


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Of all the possible presidential candidates, which one would make you mostunhappy if she or he won the election? (By Total)

31%

21%

30%

20%

30%

40%

50%

8%5%

3% 2%

0%

10%

33


If a second round run-off election is necessary and your preferred candidate


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If a second round run-off election is necessary and your preferred candidateis not one of the two candidates taking part off, how likely are you to vote?(By Total)

Certain or verylikely, 58% Possibly but not

certain, 15%

Unlikely/will notvote, 14%

Undecided, 8%

No Response,4%


Who would you vote for in case of a run off between


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Who would you vote for in case of a run-off between...

36%

47%

42%

46% 46%

37%

42%41%

44%

27%29%

49%

28%

47%

31%

49%

29%30%

40%

50%

60%


17%

12%

17% 16%

23% 22% 21%

0%

10%

20%

Which candidate would you prefer to vote for if your preferred


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Which candidate would you prefer to vote for if your preferredcandidate is not in the run-off?(By supporters of particular presidential candidates)

Scenario: Raila not in the run-off

Musalia Mudavadi 23%Peter Kenneth 15%

Uhuru Kenyatta 11%

William Ruto 8%

Kalonzo Musyoka 8%

Raila supporterswould support

Base n=504 (Railas supporters in Round 1)

Musalia Mudavadi 22%

Kalonzo Musyoka 17%

William Ruto 17%

Raila Odinga 9%

Peter Kenneth 8%

Scenario: Uhuru Not in the run-off

Uhuru supporterswould support

Base n=429 (Uluru's supporters in Round 1)

Which candidate would you prefer to vote for if your preferred


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Scenario: Ruto Not in the run-off

Rutos supporterswould support

Base n=120 (Kalonzos supporters in Round 1)

Uhuru Kenyatta 58%Musalia Mudavadi 12%

Raila Odinga 8%

Eugene Wamalwa 5%

Kalonzo Musyoka 5%

Which candidate would you prefer to vote for if your preferredcandidate is not in the run-off?(By supporters of particular presidential candidates)

Uhuru Kenyatta 23%

Raila Odinga 15%

Musalia Mudavadi 13%

Martha Karua 5%

William Ruto 5%

Kalonzos supporterswould support

Scenario: Kalonzo not in the run-off

Base n=120 (Kalonzos supporters in Round 1)

The publics priorities for the next president


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The public s priorities for the next president

16%

16%

21%

22%

25%

46%

Economic efforts for youth

Enhance security

Reduce tribal tensions/divisions, promote unity

Improve education

Enhance infrastructure

Improve the economy/reduce hunger (except for youth)

What are the two most important things you want the next president to do?

4%

14%

5%

5%

7%

10%

13%

15%

DK / NR

Other

Improve agriculture

Reduce inequality

Support the new constitution (specific area unspecified)

Improve medical facilities

Reduce rate of inflation/stop/reduce rising cost of living

Fight/reduce corruption, recover lost/grabbed public property

38



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ICC Issues

39


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What is your view regarding the intention of Uhuru Kenyatta and William


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y g g yRuto - who are scheduled for trial by the ICC next year - to contest the nextelections? (By Total)

41%They should not contest

39%

20%

,should resign from whatever seats if found

guilty by the ICC trials

They should contest and then ignore TheHague/ICC trials

41


What is your view regarding the intention of Uhuru Kenyatta and


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What is your view regarding the intention of Uhuru Kenyatta andWilliam Ruto - who are scheduled for trial by the ICC next year - tocontest the next elections? (By Region)

68%

75%80%

90%

100%

They should not contest

They should contest if they want, but should resign from whatever seats if found guilty by the iCC trials

They should contest and then ignore The Hague/ICC trials

41%

51%48%

21%

33%

45%

14%

39% 37% 36%

27%

52%

15%

42%

48%

23%20%

11%15%

3%

27%

53%

13%

37%

2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Total Nairobi Coast Nyanza Rift Valley NorthEastern

Eastern Central Western

42


What is your view regarding the intention of Uhuru Kenyatta and William


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y g g yRuto - who are scheduled for trial by the ICC next year - to contest the nextelections? (By supporters of particular presidential candidates)

62%

75%

65%

59%

They should not contest

They should contest if they want, but should resign from whatever seats if found guilty by the iCC trials

They should contest and then ignore The Hague/ICC trials

8%4%

32%

17%

27%

4%7% 8%

38% 37%

Kalonzo MusyokaSupporters

Musalia MudavadiSupporters

Raila Odinga Supporters Uhuru KenyattaSupporters

William Ruto Supporters

43


Whether or not you support the ICC process, how certain are you


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y pp p , ythat Uhuru and Ruto will actually go to the Hague for trial?(By Total)

Very certain theywill go,

54%

Very certain theywill not go,

17%

44

Uncertain,25%

RTA, 2%No Response, 1%


Whether or not you support the ICC process, how certain are you


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y pp p , ythat Uhuru and Ruto will actually go to the Hague for trial?(By supporters of particular presidential candidates)

55%

64% 65%

41%

54%

Very certain they will go Very certain they will not go Uncertain NR / RTA

45

11%10%

13%

25%

18%

28%

20% 19%

30%

25%

6% 6%2%

4% 4%

Kalonzo MusyokaSupporters

Musalia MudavadiSupporters

Raila OdingaSupporters

Uhuru KenyattaSupporters

William RutoSupporters


Points to Ponder: 2013, a succession election


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Points to Ponder: 2013, a succession election

Main current political uncertainties:

Political alliances yet to be finalized (4th December deadline)

Too many presidential candidates, no running mates

Additional uncertainty variables

Outcome of voter registration process (how close to the 18m

target?) ICC (High Court judgment on Section 6; 11thApril dates with

destiny

Insecurity threats (Al-Shabaab attacks, pastoralists-conflicts, MRCthreats, usual political militias , etc)

The new electoral administrative architecture

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For further information contact:Dr. Tom Wolf

0733 637 023

[email protected]

Managing Director

[email protected]

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Documents

Ipsos Synovate Polls_November 2012