Statistical WorkshopKigali, Rwanda12 February 2019

Item 1Welcome

• Role of ICO Members in providing data on the global coffee sector

• Coffee sector balance sheet

• Review of the global coffee market situation

• ICO statistical reporting requirements

Overview of the Workshop Agenda

Item 2Role of ICO Membersin providing data on

the global coffee sector

‘Delivering world-class data, analysis and information to the industry and policy makers.’

‘A core function of the Organization is to be the world’s most respectedcoffee statistical authority, enhancing market transparency by providingMembers and third parties with easy access to accurate and comprehensivestatistical data, and high quality analytics related to the world coffeeeconomy to the benefit of all stakeholders in the coffee supply chain,including decision-makers responsible for coffee policy.’

‘The quality of the Organization’s statistical work depends heavily on data submitted by Members.’

21

10

8

7

5

Africa’s share of global coffee production

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Afri

ca’s

pro

duct

ion

as s

hare

in to

tal

mill

ion

60-k

g ba

gs

Africa Rest of World

Global coffee exports by region

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

mill

ion

60-k

g ba

gs

Africa Asia & Oceania Central America & Mexico South America

Green coffee exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

mill

ion

60-k

g ba

gs

Africa Asia & Oceania Central America & Mexico South America

Soluble coffee exports

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

mill

ion

60-k

g ba

gs

Africa Asia & Oceania Central America & Mexico South America

Africa’s share of global consumption

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19

Afri

ca’s

con

sum

ptio

n as

sha

re in

tota

l

mill

ion

60-k

g ba

gs

Africa Rest of World

• Responding to requests for information from the general public and media

• Providing data on the coffee sector to researchers from around the world (http://www.ico.org/documents/cy2018-19/ed-2295e-call-for-award-competition.pdf )

• Presentations and talks at various forum

• Market reports on the coffee sector

• Background information for development projects

How the Secretariat uses the data it collects

3.Coffee sector balance sheet

• Ensures internal consistency of data at both country-level and global level

• Ensures consistency of data over time

• Analysis of the fundamentals of the coffee market

Why understand the balance sheet?

Supply = Demand

opening stocks + production=

consumption + ending stocks

or

production – consumption = change in stocks

Global Balance Sheet

Global Balance Sheet (2017/18)

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

Supply Demand

mill

ion

60-k

g ba

gs

Production Consumption

Change in stocks

beginning stocks + production + imports

=consumption + ending stocks + exports

Country level balance sheet

Colombia balance sheet (2017/18)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Supply Demand

Mill

ion

60-k

g ba

gs

Production

Consumption

Exports

ImportsOpening stocks Ending stocks

Item 3.1Production, area,

productivity

Supply: Production

Production

Area Yield

Supply: Area and YieldArea

Non-producing vs ProducingClimate ChangeCompeting crops

YieldFarm management/agronomic techniquesLevel of inputs used (fertilizer/insecticide etc)PestsDiseasesAge of treesWeather

Item 3.2Trade

Supply: ImportsOnly source of supply for non-producingcountries

For producing countries, imports cancover supply shortages due to:• Delays in harvesting • Lower output • Type not produced in the country

At the global level imports are matchedby exports so do not contribute to globalsupply or demand

Demand: (Re)Exports Exports and re-exports are essentially external demand

Timing and volume affected by:• International prices vs. domestic• Exchange rates• Trade policy• Domestic policy• Shipping

Item 3.3Consumption

Demand: ConsumptionOften the hardest parameter to estimate or obtain direct data for

Can be calculated based on the values of the other parameters

Is affected by the following factors:• Growth in population • Growth in per capita income• Investment in infrastructure• Government policies• Prices of competing goods• Culture

Item 3.4Stocks

StocksOpening stocks are carried over from previous season while ending stocks is the amount of coffee that is

Under quotas more stocks were held by exporters

In the last two decades importers tend to have more of the stocks, usually keeping on hand around 2-3 months of supply.

Item 4Review of the global

coffee market situation

Supply

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

90/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19

Milli

on 6

0-kg

bag

s

Robusta Arabica

COFFEE PRODUCTION BY TYPE(coffee years 1990/91 to 2017/18)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Africa

Asia & Oceania

Central America &Mexico

South America

million 60-kg bags

2015/162016/172017/182018/19

Coffee production by region

Production in the global top six

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Brazil

Vietnam

Colombia

Indonesia

Ethiopia

Honduras

India

Million 60-kg bags

2015/162016/172017/182018/19

Crop year production

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Ethiopia

Uganda

Côte d'Ivoire

Tanzania

Kenya

Million 60-kg bags

2015/162016/172017/182018/19

Production Africa’s top fiveCrop year production

Trade

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

2015 2016 2017 2018

Mill

ion

60-k

g ba

gs

Non-producers Producers

Imports (January to October)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Milli

on 6

0-kg

bag

s

2015 2016 2017 2018

GLOBAL MONTHLY EXPORTS OF ALL FORMS

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Brazil

Vietnam

Colombia

Honduras

India

Uganda

Million 60-kg bags

2015201620172018

Total exports for January to December

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

billio

n U

S $

milli

on 6

0-kg

bag

s

Volume Value

Annual export volume and value

Consumption

LOOKING AHEADGLOBAL COFFEE CONSUMPTION

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11 15/16

Milli

on 6

0-kg

bag

s

Producing countries Importing countries

0 10 20 30 40 50

Europe

Asia & Oceania

North America

South America

Africa

Central America &Mexico

million 60-kg bags

15/1616/1717/1818/19

Consumption by region

Annual consumption in top 3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

European Union USA Brazil

Mill

ion

60-k

g bg

s

2015 2016 2017 2018

Annual consumption

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Japan Indonesia Russian Federation Canada Ethiopia

Mill

ion

60-k

g ba

gs

2015201620172018

Prices

COFFEE PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION(coffee years 1990/91 to 2018/19)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1990/91 1995/96 2000/01 2005/06 2010/11 2015/16

Milli

on 6

0-kg

bag

s

Production Consumption

DAILY COMPOSITE INDICATOR PRICE

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18

US

cen

ts/lb

GROUP INDICATOR PRICES

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19

US

cent

s/lb

Colombian Milds Other Milds Brazilian Naturals Robusta

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Inde

x: S

epte

mbe

r 201

6 =

100

Brazilian Real USD

Brazilian Natural Indicator Price

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Inde

x: S

epte

mbe

r 201

6 =

100

Indonesian rupiah Vietnamese dong USD

Robusta Indicator Price

INVENTORIES IN IMPORTING COUNTRIES

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Jun-00 Jun-02 Jun-04 Jun-06 Jun-08 Jun-10 Jun-12 Jun-14 Jun-16 Jun-18

Mill

ion

60-k

g ba

gs

EU USA Japan

COFFEE PRICES AND GLOBAL COFFEE BALANCE

-

50

100

150

200

250

-10

-5

-

5

10

15

20

1990/91 1995/96 2000/01 2005/06 2010/11 2015/16

US

cen

ts/lb

Milli

on 6

0-kg

bag

s

Balance Season-average price

5.ICO statistical

reporting requirements

Reporting requirements according to the Rules on Statistics

Exporting Members

Monthly1. Preliminary totals of monthly exports2. Report on exports3. Report on imports4. Certificates of Origin5. Prices paid to growers6. Retail prices

Annual7. Opening stocks8. Production9. Domestic consumption10. Crop percentage distribution11. Area under coffee

Importing Members

Monthly1. Imports2. Re-exports3. Retail prices

Annual/Quarterly4. Roastings5. Inventories

Item 5.1Certificates of

Origin

http://www.ico.org/documents/cy2017-18/icc-102-9-r1e-rules-certificates-origin-final.pdf

Annex II (page 13)

CERTIFICATES OF ORIGIN[MONTH/YEAR]

Coffee year

Country of

Origin

Port of Origin

Serial Number

Net weight

Unit of

weight

Date of customs

(DD/MM/YY)

Country of destination (name or

code)

Form of

coffee

Type of

coffee

Methodof

processing

Mode of shipment

Additional information

Quality (Res. 420)

Special characteristics

Harmonised System

code

Value national

currency ( ) US$ ( )

€ ( )

Certificates of Origin-part 1Coffee Year Country of

OriginPort of Origin Serial

2018 028 15 44

2018 028 15 46

2018 028 15 47

2018 028 15 48

2018 028 15 49

Certificates of Origin-part 2Net weight Unit of Weight Date Country of

destination19200 kg 05/10/2025 44

20500 kg 05/10/2025 46

17500 kg 12/10/2025 47

19200 kg 14/10/2025 48

7500 kg 23/10/2025 49

Green coffee combinations• Green (G)Form

• Arabica (A)• Robusta (R)Type

• Wet (W)• Dry (D)Process

• Decaffeinated (D)• Organic (O)• NA

Additional information

Green coffee combinations• Roasted (R)Form

• NAType

• NAProcess

• Decaffeinated• Organic• NA

Additional information

Roasted coffee combinations• Soluble (S) Form

• NAType

• Spray-dried (SD)• Freeze-dried (FD)• Preparation (P)

Process

• Decaffeinated• Organic• NA

Additional information

Certificates of Origin-part 3Form Type Method of

processingAdditional information

G A W

G A W O

G A W

R D

S SD

Certificates of Origin-part 4Quality (Res. 420)

Special Characteristics

Harmonised System Code

Value (currency US D)

S fairtrade 090111 123 456

XD gourmet 090111 123 456

XM 4C 090111 123 456

XDM Rainforest/Utz 090122 123 456

UNSP 210111 123 456

Coffee and HS Codes

Form of Coffee

0901 or 2101

Green/Roasted

0901

Soluble

2101

HS Codes: Green and Roasted

Form of Coffee

Green/Roasted

0901

Green

0901.1X

Green

0901.11

Green decaffeinated

0901.12

Roasted

0901.2X

Roasted

0901.21

Roasted decaffeinated

0901.22

HS Codes: SolubleForm of Coffee

0901 or 2101

Green/Roasted

0901

Soluble

2101.1X

Extracts (freeze-dried or

spray dried )2101.11

Extracts decaffeinated

2101.11.21.30

Preparations with a basis of

extracts2101.12.92

Preparations with a basis of

coffee2101.12.98

Item 5.2Statistical Reports

MONTHLY REPORT: EXPORTS BY DESTINATION

Statistical Information to be sent by email or by fax:

Month/year:

Country ofVolume

(net weight)Unit of weight

Form of Type of Method of processing

3/

Value 4/ Harmonised Other

destination 1/ coffeecoffee

2/ National US$ or €System relevant

Code Name (G/R/S) (A/R) currency Code 5/ information

1/ Either name and/or ICO, EU or ISO code (please specify)2/ Green coffee only3/ Dry (D) or Wet (W) for green coffee; Spray-dried (SD) or Freeze-dried (FD) for soluble coffee4/ In national currency and/or in either US$ or €uro (please indicate)5/ OptionalOther relevant information: decaffeinated (D) or organic (O)

MONTHLY REPORT: IMPORTS BY ORIGINStatistical Information to be sent by email or by fax:Month/year:

HS codeCountry of origin 1/ Unit of

weightVolume

(net weight)Value 2/

Code Name National currency US$ or €

1/ Either name and/or ICO, EU or ISO code (please specify)2/ In national currency and/or in either US$ or €uro (please indicate)

SUMMARY (if available)HS code Volume Value

Green coffee: 090111090112

Roasted coffee: 090121090122

Soluble coffee:210111

2101129221011298

QUARTERLY AND ANNUAL REPORTS: PRODUCTION ESTIMATE; CROP DISTRIBUTION; GROSS CLOSING STOCKS; AND AREA UNDER COFFEE

I. Quarterly information: production estimatePreliminary estimate for crop

year ________/____Total Domestic Exportable

production consumption production Unit of weight000 bags ( ) metric ton ( )

(______) % Arabica (______) % Arabica(______) % Robusta (______) % Robusta

II. Annual informationa. Percentage distribution of crop by quarter

1st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter

% % % %

b. Annual data: Gross closing stocks at the end of the crop year:Estimated gross closing stocks on the last day of the crop year ( 31 March/30 June/30 September)

Arabica coffee Robusta coffee 000 bags ( ) metric ton ( )Total stocks held: (a) + (b)

1/1/ Stocks held by roasters, exporters, central marketing and regulating organizations and cooperatives

a. Stocks of green coffee

i. Public 2/ 2/ Stocks held by the Government or government controlled agencies/bodiesii. Private

b. Stocks of processed coffee 3/ 3/ in Green Bean Equivalent: the following conversion factors: 1.19 for roasted coffee and 2.6 for soluble coffee, to be appliedi. Public 2/

ii. Private

c. Area under coffee

Region/StateCoffee trees

New trees Trees in productionArea (ha) Trees (000 trees) Area (ha) Trees (000 trees)

Total

REPORT ON PROVISIONAL EXPORTS,

PRICES TO GROWERS AND RETAIL/WHOLESALE PRICES

Statistical information to be sent by email

I. Information to be transmitted within 30 days after the close of the month:

b. Average price paid to growers* in the previous month:

* In national currency per unit purchased (please specify)

c. Retail/wholesale prices (where available)

c.1. Roasted coffee

Month/year

c.2. Soluble coffee

Month/year

Item 5.3Compliance

with Rules on Statistics

Summary Strict Compliance• Exporting Members

account for 98% of world coffee exports

• Compliance for 2016/17• Information provided:

– Monthly export & certificate of origin data (36)

– Monthly prices paid to growers (12)

– Annual stocks, production and consumption (3)

– New information included in ICA 2007(4)Good

Partial (score <30)Non-compliance

Compliance with additional information included in ICA 2007

05

101520253035404550

Area Retail prices Quaterly crop distribution

Import volume and value

Num

ber o

f Mem

bers

Compliant Compliant in previous years No information received

New compliance indicators

• Compliance would be measured on a scale from 0 to 100 with 100 indicating full compliance.

• The following indicators would be published in an annual Compliance Report for the most recently completed coffee year:

• Total for both importing and exporting Members• Total for all exporting Members• Total for all importing Members• Individual score for each Member

Basic dimensions of compliance for indicator

1. Timeliness: Are reports submitted on time? On time = 1 Late submission = 0

2. Completeness: Are individual reports provided? Report provided = 1 Report not provided = 0

Scoreie

1/11

1/11

Annual

Monthly

Certificates of Origin

Completeness

0/1

Certificates of Origin

January

Compliance x 1/2 + Timeliness x 1/2

Certificates of Origin

February

...

Certificates of Origin

March

…

Certificates of Origin

Timeliness

0/1

1/2 1/

2

… …

Preliminary

exports

… …

1/121/12 …

Monthly reportsCertificates of Origin /Prelim. exports / Exports / Imports / Prices paid to growers / Retail

prices

Annual reportsOpening stocks / Production / Domestic consumption / Crop percentage

distribution / Area under coffee

…Openingstocks

1/2

1/2

n = number of reportsie = exporting country

Openingsstocks

Completeness

0/1

Openingstocks

Timeliness

0/1

ComplianceIndividual exporting Members

Exports

1/11 1/1

1Production

1/11

… …

…

1/11

Certificates of Origin

1/12

1/11

Scoree1/44

Scoreie … Scoreie

n = number of exporting Membersie = Exporting country

ComplianceGroup of exporting Members

Scoreie Scoreie

𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑒𝑒 =∑𝑖𝑖𝑛𝑛 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑖𝑖𝑒𝑒

𝑛𝑛

1/44 1/44 1/441/44

Scoretotal1/2 1/2

Scoree

ComplianceAggregated for all ICO Members

Scorei

𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 =𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑒𝑒 + 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑖𝑖

2

Rebecca PandolphChief, Statistics Section, ICO

Tel. +44(0)20 7612 0628Email: Pandolph@ico.org

Website: www.ico.org