Institut Français d’Oslo
Climate change:
from security concerns
to defense issues
Bastien ALEX
Researcher at IRIS
Tuesday September the 3rd
Plan
Preliminary remarks and reminders
What are the links between climate
change and security?
Can we already observe them?
It is a security issue, is that a defense
one?
Preliminary remarks
Climate change: two phenomenons
Anthropogenic CC which make us enter the
Anthropocene (with other disruptions like soil sealing,
pollutions, dams, invasive species introduction, etc.
Natural variations of earth climate (slower)
Climate change is a doubly global issue
Geographically speaking (GHG emissions recognize no
borders)
In the literal sense: transversal problem (economy,
energy, health, environment, transportation, and above
all a political one that we need to negotiate
Climate change effects
Temperature
Rise
Rising sea
levels
Changes in
precipitation
patterns
Increase in
hurricanes
and cyclones
Melting ice
caps and
permafrost
Ocean
acidification
A horizon 2030 = +0,7°C en moyenne
I) Quelles sont les manifestations du changement
climatique ?
Mean 2100 : between 0,25 and 0,6 m (RCP2,6) and between 0,5 and 1 m (RCP8,5)
Significant disparities according to the relief of the coasts (beach, cliff)According
to climate scientist and geomorphologist, a one meter rise of the sea level on a
one percent slope beach will provoke a 100 meters coastline retreat/reduction
Europe underwater with the
melt of Artic ice
I. Climate change, security and
conflicts
Hypothesis and examples
Climate and security
Climate and security
Links between climate and
security
1. Human Security
a) Food and Water Security
b) Migrations (livelihoods degradation)
c) Health problems
2. National, regional and international security
a) Political use of population migrations or displacements
b) Tensions on water resources
c) Radicalization, terrorism and crime
d) Habitability
e) Tensions in newly reachable areas (Arctic)
f) Energy security
g) Tipping Points
3. Climate policies associated risks
a) Geoengineering
b) Landgrabbing
c) Maladaptation
=> Questionable because a crisis counts several drivers
Two African examples:
Innerstate conflict:
herders and farmers
in the Sahel
Interstate conflict:
water sharing
between Egypt and
Ethiopia
The Sahel: a vulnerable area
Location between the southern Saharan desert (20° N) and the more
humid and coastal Sudano-Sahelian belt (between the 20th and
12th North Parallel),
very high climatic variability and irregular precipitation
arid north (200 mm of precipitation per year),
south tropical (600 mm) Rainfed agriculture needs at least 350 mm.
Pastoralism is the main source of income in the North (ECOWAS-
SWAC/OCDE, 2006).
A small area of arable land is irrigated
Two seasons dry season (September-May) and a short rain season
(June-August)
Alternating dry and wet years since the droughts of the 1970s and
1980s => huge interannual variability
The Sahel: a vulnerable area
T°C rise faster in the Sahel than the world average
More pronounced inland (+4°C in Mali, Chad, Burkina Faso, Niger) than
on the coast (+3°C in Mauritania, Senegal).
More visible on minimum temperatures than on maximums
significant disparities between the Centre and East, more humid and
the West where drought persists.
Climatic Trends in the Sahel
Social & economic indicators
Population
2015
(millions)
Rural
Population
(% of
total)
GDP/cap.
($/year/c
ap.)
Part of
primary
sector (% of
GDP)
Population
in
2030/2050
(millions)
Burkina
Faso
17,6 71 713,11 35 25,3 / 33,3
Mali 12 60,1 706,66 40 25,3 / 34
Mauritania 4 40,1 1274,93 20 5,4 / 6,7
Niger 19 21,3 427,39 40 33,5 / 53,6
Chad 13,6 77,5 1024,65 55 20,2 / 26,9
Nigeria
177,5 52,2 3203,3 20
246,6 /
313,3
Côte
d’Ivoire
22,1 45,8 1546,96 20 30,3 / 40,6
Senegal 14,7 56,3 1061,78 15 21,6 / 30,7
Conflicts between herders/pastoralists
and farmers/peasants
Old regional issue : pastoralists migration throught south
(transhumance), meet the farmers
human drivers are very important:
land degradation caused by the passage of animals,
Expansion of cultivated areas, construction of fences
lack of updating/maintenance of transhumance corridors
Bankruptcy of local authorities (non-existent state authorities,
overwhelmed traditional authorities)
Political choice of countries to support the development of
one or other of the activities
Can climate change exacerbate
those conflict dynamics? How?
1. Declining water level
« Lower water levels were partly caused by a decrease in rainfall during
the 1970s and 1980s, which left large areas of the floodplain dry. The
construction of the upstream hydropower dam at Se´lingue´ in 1982 also
contributed to the declining water levels (Turner, 1992). As burgu grows
on deeper water than rice, the declining water level led to a massive
expansion of rice fields into burgu areas on the floodplain, which directly
confronted farmers and herders and pushed out the latter and their
livestock.» (Benjaminsen et al., Journal of Peace Research, 2012).
Can climate change exacerbate
those conflict dynamics? How?
2. Interannual rainfall fluctuations impacts on vegetation
Biomass production trend between 1998 and 2016 in Sahel (% Average)
Herders and farmers
conflicts in the Sahel
Concluding remarks :
These are hybrid issues, where climate and environmental changes
play a role, but where risks depend greatly on the management
policies implemented (or not).
Uncertainties about the future:
Forecasts predict a whole increase in interannual variability and therefore
probable dry years in the northern Sahel
Demographic growth
Agricultural development in the South Sahel
Early descent of herders
Increase in the number of weapons in circulation
State, administrations and chiefdoms unable to manage the increase in
conflicts
= DANGER
Example of maladaptation
Great Ethiopian
Renaissance Dam
(GERD)
underconstruction in
Ethiopia on the Blue
Nile (main tributary
of the Nile (85% of
the total water; 95%
during the rain
season)
Water security:
the Nile case
GERD in
figures
Biggest dam in
Africa: 175m high,
1800 wide
Project cost
between 4 and 6
billion dollars
6450 MW power
generation capacity
74 billion cubed
meters reservoir
required period of
time for initial reservoir
fillingestimated
between 2 and 12
years !!
Water security: the Nile case
The Nile is crucial for Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia. Historically, the Nile Basin is
dominated by Egypt. The Dam construction begins in 2011, a very
important year.
On June the 3rd, 2013, a video of a meeting between Egyptian
President Morsi and his generals revealed the army’s position on this
subject:
some oppenly support destroying the dam
others suggest bribing Ethiopian authorities
or even to support separatist groups.
Agreement concluded in March 2015: Egypt recognizes Ethiopia's right
to build this dam on condition that it does not contravene its water
supply
January 2017: announcement of the reinforcement of electricity
production capacity (increased to 6450 MW). Protests from Egypt
March 2017: attack on the construction site by an Eritrean group
How is ti related to climate change?
April 2017 : article in Nature Climate Change « the standard deviation describing
interannual variability of total Nile flow could increase by 50% (±35%) “
This is attributed to “the relatively large change in interannual variability of the Nile flow
to projected increases in future occurrences of El Niño and La Niña events” increase of
the flow during El Nino/ increase during la Nina.
Authors coclude that “Adequacy of current water storage capacity and plans for
additional storage capacity in the basin will need to be re-evaluated given the
projected enhancement of interannual variability in the future flow of
