Institut Français des Relations Internationales Energy Roundtable

Brussels – March 21st, 2013

New Energy Resources in East Africa Pushing back the continent’s last hydrocarbon frontier

Roger CARVALHO CEO - SPTEC Advisory

Introduction to SPTEC Advisory

SPTEC Advisory was founded in 1994 as an independent advisory firm focusing on Oil &

Gas in Africa and the Middle East, based in Paris.

The firm specialises in strategic and commercial advisory, mergers - acquisitions and

divestitures advisory, as well as financial structuring and fund raising advisory.

Our client base includes corporations, financial institutions, governments and

individuals related to our focus industry. The management has an extensive network of

relationships with access to industry leaders and decision makers globally.

In February 2013, SPTEC Advisory and Upstream Advisors, a niche consultancy firm,

have entered into a strategic alliance agreement to leverage their complementary

expertise.

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Contacts

For further information, please contact:

3

72, rue du Faubourg Saint-Honoré

75 008 Paris

Mustapha K. FAID President

Cell: +33 6 82 84 52 38

mkf@sptec-advisory.com

Roger M. CARVALHO Chief Executive Officer

Cell: +33 6 50 88 48 64

rmc@sptec-advisory.com

45.7% (2 260)

32.8% (4 059) 27.1%

(4 656)

49.0% (1 697) 37.3%

(2 092)

38.1% (563) 29.0%

(1 967)

18.2% (898)

23.5% (2 906) 23.9%

(4 106)

19.4% (673)

24.7% (1 386) 15.2%

(225) 22.4% (1 520)

30.3% (1 499)

30.1% (3 724)

24.5% (4 218)

25.5% (882)

19.6% (1 099)

41.7% (617) 38.8%

(2 626)

0.4%

4.8%

6.6%

0.5%

8.7%

0.1% 1.6%

5.4% 8.8%

17.9%

5.6% 9.8%

4.9% 8.1%

4 942 12 384 17 197 3 463 5 612 1 479 6 772

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1970 2011 2035 1970 2011 1970 2011

World Energy Consumption (Million tonnes oil equivalent)

Liquids Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Other (Renewables, Hydro…)

Total World OECD Non-OECD

Gas has taken a large proportion in World’s Energy mix

4

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2012

+5.3

-12.9

+5.3

-11.7

+7.2

-18.1 -5.7

+0.4

-5.9 -2.9

-5.6

+9.1 +3.4 +4.2 +3.2

-0.2

China and Asia will be the most demanding regions

5

World Gas demand (bcm/a)

3229

2011

LNG importers: Demand is revised upwards with China and India reaching top ranks

6

107

49

25 24 17 17 16 15

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Japan SouthKorea

UK Spain India China Taiwan France

bcm

LNG import countries in 2011 Top four LNG importers in 2025

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2012

114

52 52 53

141

90

70 61

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Japan China India South Korea

2009 Forecast

2012 Forecast

bcm

Source: BG Group interpretation of Wood Mackenzie data (Nov 2009 and Aug 2012 forecasts)

World LNG supply challenge: 232 bcm/a gap by 2025

7

= 232 bcm/a

LNG trades in 2011: 331 bcm representing 1/3 of total gas trade

8

LNG 330.8

Pipeline 694.6

LNG vs Pipeline trade (bcm)

32 %

68 %

Total 1025.4

Asia

Europe

Asia

Europe

Top 10 New discoveries in 2012

9

Gas discoveries: 84.4 TCF

Oil discoveries: 5 bnbbl

Mozambique accounted for 1/3 of the new volumes and Tanzania ranked 2nd overall

10

Songo Songo-1: drilled by ENI in Tanzania

Mnazi Bay-1: drilled by ENI in Tanzania

Mkuranga-1: drilled by Maurel et Prom in Tanzania

Kiliwani-North-1: drilled by Aminex in Tanzania

Mafia-deep-1: drilled by Maurel et Prom in Tanzania

Windjammer-1: drilled by Anadarko in Mozambique

Barquentine-1: drilled by Anadarko in Mozambique

Lagosta-1: drilled by Anadarko in Mozambique

Pweza-1:drilled by BG in Tanzania

Chewa-1: drilled by BG in Tanzania

Tubarao-1: drilled by Anadarko in Mozambique

Camarao-1: drilled by Anadarko in Mozambique

Mamba south-1: drilled by ENI in Mozambique

Zafarani-1: drilled by Statoil in Tanzania

Mamba North-1: drilled by ENI in Mozambique

Golfinho-1: drilled by Anadarko in Mozambique

Chaza-1: drilled by BG in Tanzania

Jodari-1:drilled by BG in Tanzania

Mzia-1: drilled by BG in Tanzania

Atum-1: drilled by Anadarko in Mozambique

Ntorya-1: drilled by Aminex in Tanzania

Lavani-1: drilled by Statoil in Tanzania

Mamba North east-1: drilled by ENI in Mozambique

Coral-1: drilled by ENI in Mozambique

Papa-1: drilled by BG in Tanzania

Coral-3: drilled by ENI in Mozambique

Tagawizi-1: drilled by Statoil in Tanzania

Mozambique / Tanzania: Gas discoveries and prospects

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• 1974

• 1981

• 2006

• 2008

• 2009

• 2010

• 2011

• 2012

• 2013 Legend: Tanzania discoveries

Mozambique discoveries

Source: Maurel et Prom

Gas discoveries by actor in Mozambique & Tanzania

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Area 4 2011

22.5 TCF 2012

43.5 TCF 2013

4 TCF

ENI

75 TCF (estimated)

Area 1 2010/2011

17 – 30+ TCF 2012

15 – 35 TCF

Anadarko

50 TCF (estimated)

Block 2 2012

9 TCF 2013

4 – 6 TCF

Statoil

14 TCF (estimated)

Block 1 2012

8.7 – 13.7 TCF

Block 3 2012

0.5 – 2 TCF

BG

12.5 TCF (estimated)

Mtwara Block 2012

1.5 TCF

Aminex

1.5 TCF (estimated)

28 53 57

63 66 70 73 77

86 105

127 127

133 159

181 195

215 288

300 859

885 1 169

1 575

0 100 200 300 400 500

Tanzania (e)

Libya

Uzbekistan

Kuwait

Kazakhstan

Canada

Norway

Egypt

Malaysia

Indonésie

Iraq

Mozambique (e)

Australia

Algeria

Nigeria

Venezuela

UAE

Saudi Arabia

USA

Turkmenistan

Qatar

Iran

Russia

Gas Proven Reserves (Tcf)

Mozambique ranks #12 in gas reserves globally 127 TCF in 2012, and more still to confirm

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Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2012, EIA, SPTEC Advisory

New supply for Asia by 2025: East Africa & North America (?)

14 Source: Dataloy (2013)

Qatar Egypt

Australia

Japan 3,683

n miles

Japan 6,314

n miles Japan 7,573

n miles

Existing supply

New supply

Mozambican fields development will cost $42.7 bn

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Source: ICF International, Credit Suisse

Capital Costs for potential LNG Plants across the Globe (USD/tpa)

12.5

6.6

1.6 3.1

1.6

9.8

4.5

0.5

1.4

1.2

22.3

11.1

2.1

4.5

2.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

Prosperidade /Mamba

Golfinho / Atum Tubarao Coral Others

Total costs by field (billion USD) (as at December 2012)

Total Exploration & Development Capital Costs Total O&M Costs Post-FID (In June 2012) Pre-FID

China $19.35

Korea $17.75

Spain $15.25

Altamira $3.55

Japan $19.75

Current prices and forecasts make Mozambique projects profitable

16 Source: Waterborne Energy, Inc. Data in $US/MMBtu Updated: February 7, 2013

India $15.70

Belgium $9.86

UK $9.94

Cove Point $3.34

Lake Charles $3.01

Rio de Janeiro $16.84

Bahia Blanca $18.09

World LNG Estimated March 2013 Landed Prices

Henry Hub/ Nymex

Long Term: JCC Short Term:

NBP/Other hubs

Brent (85%), NBP (15%)

NBP & Other Hubs

Henry Hub since 2010

116

48 41

33 30 28 27 27

21 14 13

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Qatar Indonesia Mozambique(e)with 6 LNG trains*

Malaysia Nigeria Mozambique(e)with 4 LNG trains*

Australia Algeria Trinidad & Tobago Mozambique(e)with 2 LNG trains*

Russia

bcm LNG Nominal Capacity

Mozambique will become a major player in LNG market

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Years (Reserves/Production)

170 y 127 y 84 y 39 y 39 y 10 y 58 y 74 y 87 y

Source: GIIGNL, ICF International, SPTEC Advisory

130 y 261 y

* Mozambican exports does not take into account internal gas consumption

Challenges for Mozambique

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Negotiate with Anadarko and ENI to get LNG development

Public ownership and funding

Public-Private Partnership

ENH’s financing structure

Financing ENH’s equity shares

Financing

Training of decision makers

Adequate labor force

General education

Sustainability and environmental protection

Human Resources

Roads

Ports

Rails

Airports

Telecom

Power grid

Infrastructure

Energy Mix (Gas, Coal, Hydro)

Gas Master Plan Development

Decisions about downstream mega-project development

Local market and SME promotion

Local Power Market

Uses of revenues

USD or gas taken in-kind allocation

Regulatory clarity in the Energy Sector

Marketing structure

Institutional Framework

Methanol

Fertilizers (ammonia, urea)

Gas to liquids (GTL)

Cement

Steel

Other Industries

A promising future

A New Giant in Natural Resources

Gas (127 TCF proven and more to come)

Coal (25 billion tons, 25% of the world’s coking coal by 2025)

A New Player in Energy Geopolitics

Asia

Europe

A Land of Opportunities in all sectors

European Industry players

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SPTEC Advisory was established in 1994 as an independent advisory firm focusing on the Oil & Gas industry in Africa and the Middle-East

SPTEC Advisory delivers un-biased advice supported by an in-depth knowledge of

the sector value chain

SPTEC Advisory specialises in strategic and commercial advisory, investments and divestitures advisory, as well as financial structuring and fund raising advisory

www.sptec-advisory.com