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INFLUENCE OF LARGE SCALE WIND POWER AND INCREASED ENERGY SYSTEM FLEXIBILITY
ON THE OPTIMAL LONG-TERM POWER PLANT PORTFOLIO
Research Scientist Juha Kiviluoma, VTT
Senior Scientist Peter Meibom, Risø DTU
Correspondance: [email protected] +358 (20) 722 6671
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
GENERATION EXPANSION MODEL WITH A HEAT TWIST
• Balmorel (www.balmorel.com) is one of the few generation expansion models that handles wind power in hourly time scale
• It also includes heat production with CHP plants and heat boilers• We included heat pumps, electric heat boilers, and heat storages• Caveat: grid expansion costs not included• Also plug-in electric vehicles modelled, but with exogenous investment decision
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
SUMMARY OF RESULTS
• A system with very large fraction of wind power competitive • If wind power costs comparatively low
• No grid constraints
• Flexibility from heat important
• Flexibility from heat more important for wind power integration than flexibility from electric vehicles
• Reducing CO2 emission dramatically seems to be rather inexpensive
• Methodological: modelling heat and power investments • With heat storages
• One year 2035 optimization with hourly time steps
• Nuclear and wind power most competitive, interesting dynamics• Smart charging and discharging of plug-in electric vehicles have a decreasing utility
for the system
• Has been submitted to Energy this year
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
SOME ASSUMPTIONS
HighFuel LowFuel 2007 Interest rate 9.0 9.0 % CO2 cost 45 20 €/tCO2 Coal (CO) 3 2.1 2.2 €/GJ Natural gas (NG) 11 6 5.8 €/GJ Light oil (LO) 16 13 12.9 €/GJ Fuel oil (FO) 13 10 7.5 €/GJ Peat (PE) 2.8 2.8 2.3 €/GJ Industrial wood waste (WW) 0 0 €/GJ Forest residues (WR) 4.2 3.5 3.4 €/GJ Wood and straw (WO) 7.5 5.3 €/GJ Municipal waste (MW) 0 0 €/GJ Nuclear fuel (NU) 0.4 0.4 €/GJ
Region TWhElec demand FI_R 113.0
FI_R_Urban 6.6FI_R_Rural 14.9FI_R_Ind 42.5
Heat demandDistrict heating only
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
SCENARIOS EXPLAINED
• Number in the scenario name: wind power investment cost €/kW
• OnlyPlugIn plug-ins have been enables, but heat measures not
• OnlyHeat only heat measures enabled
• HeatPlugIn both flexibility mechanisms included (heat and plug-ins)
• NoNuc No new nuclear allowed (there are some old plants)
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
FLEXIBILITY FROM HEAT ENABLES A LARGE INCREASE IN WIND
-55 -45 -35 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 45 55
Base700
Base900
OnlyPlugIn
OnlyHeat
HeatPlugIn700
HeatPlugIn800
HeatPlugIn900
Base Nuclear
Change in electricity compared to Base NoNuc [TWh] EL_HP
EL_HB
CO_CHP
CO_CON
PE_CHP
NG_CHP
NG_CON
Biomass
NU_Old
NU_New
Wind
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
BaseNoNuc
No new nuclear base scenario electricity production [TWh]
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
Net
ele
ctric
ity d
eman
d [G
W]
Elec demand
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
Net
ele
ctric
ity d
eman
d [G
W]
Elec demand
... - wind 65%
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
Net
ele
ctric
ity d
eman
d [G
W]
Elec demand
... - wind 65%
…+ 1M plug-ins
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
Net
ele
ctric
ity d
eman
d [G
W]
Elec demand... - wind 65%…+ 1M plug-ins…+ heat pumps
SYSTEM OPERATION AT VERY LARGE WIND POWER PENETRATION
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
Net
ele
ctric
ity d
eman
d [G
W]
Elec demand... - wind 65%…+ 1M plug-ins…+ heat pumps…+ elec. boilers
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
Net
ele
ctric
ity d
eman
d [G
W]
…+ elec. boilers
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
NG_old_condNG_OC_condNG_CHP_oldNG_CC_condNG_CHP_newWO_CHP_oldPE_CHP_oldHYDRO_oldMW_CHPWW_CHP_oldWW_CHP_newWR_CHP_oldNU_old
Selected two weeks (worst case)
HeatPlugIn700NoNuc (highest wind scenario)
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
HOW WIND PRODUCTION AFFECTS HEAT PRODUCTION
Wind production (GW)
Hea
t pro
duct
ion
(GW
)
1 2 3 4
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
AVERAGE COST OF ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION
• Average production cost (€/MWh), not average price• Heat measures -2 €/MWh, if fuel prices high• Plug-ins -1 €/MWh• Nuclear -2 – -4 €/MWh, depending on wind power investment cost
• CO2 emissions from 45 Mt to 2 – 20 Mt
Base OnlyHeat OnlyPlug HeatPlug 700 Nuclear 37.9 - - 34.7 800 Nuclear 38.4 36.0 37.3 35.6 900 Nuclear 38.8 - - 36.2 700 No nuclear 40.0 - - 36.0 800 No nuclear 41.5 39.1 39.8 37.7 900 No nuclear 42.8 - - 40.3 800 Low fuel prices Nuclear 33.6 - - 32.5
€/MWh