Indonesian and Global Economic Update 2014

7/22/2019 Indonesian and Global Economic Update 2014

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Ekspektasi terhadapPemerintahan Baru

A. Tony Prasetiantono, Ph.D.Kepala Pusat Studi Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Publik

Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta

Indonesian and Global Economic Update 2014Jakarta, 13 Mei 2014


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Agenda

Overview Perekonomian Global

Indikator Ekonomi Makro Terkini

Pelajaran dari Krisis 1998

Pelajaran dari Mini Crisis 2008

Likuiditas Ketat 2014

The Washington Consensus

Adakah Jokowi Effect dalam Pilpres 9 Juli 2014? Ekspektasi terhadap Pemerintahan Baru


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Overview Pertumbuhan ekonomi Q1-2014 di bawah ekspektasi, hanya 5,21%.

Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia 2014 diperkirakan maksimal 5,5%.

Tahun pemilu diharapkan memberi harapan baru, sebagaimana yang terjadi di

India. Pertumbuhan ekonomi India diperkirakan kembali di atas 5% tahun ini.

Efek Jokowi sempat terjadi pada 14 Maret 2014, yang menyebabkan rupiah

menguat ke level Rp 11.200-an per USD.

Namun kemudian dinetralisasi oleh efek Janet Yellen pada 18 Maret 2014.

Rupiah pun kembali terkoreksi ke Rp 11.600 per USD.

Saat ini rupiah bergerak antara Rp 11.500-11.600 per USD.

Subsidi energi masih terlalu besar, Rp 300 triliun.

Likuiditas ketat belum memungkinkan penurunan BI rate 7,5%.

Industri perbankan mengalami stagnasi dan perlambatan. Jika pilpres 9 Juli 2014 sukses, maka akan terjadi capital inflows, sehingga

likuiditas bisa melonggar, BI rate bisa diturunkan bertahap. Apa lagi AS belum

tentu berani menaikkan suku bunganya.

Pertumbuhan ekonomi masih bisa mencapai 5,5% tahun ini.


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* Bloomberg.com

Rupiah Has Been Depreciated Since May 2013

May 9 2014


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Inflasi 7.25% (Apr 2014) Vs BI rate 7.5%

*BI May 2014, basis IHK

Agt138.79

7,25

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

IHK


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Inflation is now Relatively Manageable

*BI May 2014, basis IHK(year on year)

2.71

-0.07

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

IHK

Jul13


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60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2010 2011 2012 2013

Indonesias Private Foreign Debt Indonesia (USD million)

*BI, May 2014

2013 Q4(Des) : 140.512


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Trade Deficit, as Well as Current Account Deficit

*BPS, May 2014(USD Billion)

101

114

137

117

158

204

190183

44

61

74

129

97

136

177

192187

4339.73 39.63

7.82

19.68 22.1226.06

-1.66 -4.08 1.07

-10

40

90

140

190

240

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Export Import Surplus(Deficit)

sd Mar 14


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Indonesian Stock Exchange Composite Index

* Bloomberg Mar 2009-2014


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ADB Outlook 2013 2014

Developing Asia 6.5 6.7East Asia 6.6 6.6

China 7.7 7.5

South Asia 5.0 5.1

India 4.4 5.4

Southeast Asia 4.9 5.3Indonesia 5.7 6.0

Malaysia 4.3 5.0

Philippines 7.0 6.1

Thailand 3.8 4.9

Vietnam 5.2 5.5

Asian Economic Growth, 2013-2014

Projected by IMF, January 2014


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Ben S Bernanke: Quantitative Easing, and then Tapering Off


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Paul KrugmanUS economy still needs

stimulus, both fiscal and

monetary, in assuring

economic growth and

creating job

opportunities.


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Janet Yellen:Tapering Off

Continues Until

October 2014?


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The US ThreeMusketeers in the

Bill Clinton

administration:

Alan Greenspan,Robert Rubin,

and Larry Summers


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Blanchard: Euro Zone Crisis Will Take Longer than Expected


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USD Appreciated Against Asian Currencies (%) 2013-2014

* Bloomberg-> Feb 2013 compare to Feb 2014

-1.50%

0.08%

20.07%

13.61%

9.98%

-1.41%

6.04%

9.78%

2.37%

9.35%

2.31%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

CNY(Yuan) HKD($) IDR(Rp) INR(Rpe) JPY(Yen) KRW(Won) MYR(Ringgit) PHP(Peso) SGD($) THB(Bath) TWD($)


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124.64

92.67

105.56

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan-11

Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

Foreign Reserves

Jul 13

Apr 14

Foreign Reserves: USD 105.56 billion

* BI, Apr 2014 (USD Billion)

Aug 11


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Total Assets in Banking Industry, 2005-2013 (Rp billion)

*BI (Statistik Perbankan Indonesia) Feb 2014

1,469,827

1,693,850

1,986,501

2,310,557

2,534,106

3,008,853

3,652,832

4,262,587

4,817,7514,954,467

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Nov 13 Des-13

Jumlah Aset


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Deposits and Loans in Banking Industry, 2005-2013 (Rp billion)


2,725,674

3,319,842

3,225,198

3,663,968

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Nov 13 Des-13

Kredit Dana Pihak Ketiga


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NPL, NIM and ROA in Banking Industry, 2005-2012


7.56

6.07

4.07

3.203.31

2.56 2.17

1.87

5.635.80 5.70 5.66 5.56

5.735.91

5.49

2.55 2.642.78

2.332.60

2.863.03 3.11

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

NPL NIM ROA


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NPL, NIM and ROA in Banking Industry, 2013


2.01 2.03 1.97 1.96 1.95 1.88 1.87 1.94 1.86 1.91 1.881.77

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5.345.41 5.42 5.41 5.43 5.46 5.46 5.48

5.50

4.88 4.89

3.16

2.923.03 2.96 2.99 3.02 3.00

3.03 3.06 3.09 3.09 3.08

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Agust Sep Okt Nov Des

NPL NIM ROA


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LDR Ratio in Banking Industry 2006-2013

*BI(Statistik Perbankan Indonesia) Feb 2014

61.56

66.32

74.58 72.88

75.21

78.77

83.58

89.97 89.70

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Nov 13 Des-13

LDR


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Foreign Direct Investment

*Semester I 2013


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Domestic Investment

*Semester I 2013


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Employment in Indonesia:

Formal Vs Informal Sector

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2002 2003 2004 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13

Informal Formal


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Unemployment in Indonesia

94.95102.05 104.49

107.41 111.28115.08

116.44 118.17

10.85

9.439.26

8.598.12

7.66 7.27.15

10.26%

8.46%8.14%

7.41%

6.80%

6.24%5.82%

5.70%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2005 Feb 08 Feb 09 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb 14

Pekerja Pengangguran Terbuka TPT (Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka)

* BPS, May 2014 (Million people)


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Indonesias Fiscal Policy Volume of government budget 2014 is Rp 1.842 trillion, where government revenue

is Rp 1.667 trillion, budget deficit Rp 175 triliun (1,69% to GDP).

Budget for social security(JKN) Rp 19.93 trillion for 121 million population (50% of

total population).

As comparison, budget for housing is only Rp 4.7 trillion.

Budget for education is 20% of the government budget (compulsory).

Budget for infrastructure is Rp 196 trillion, far below the 5% of the Indonesias GDP

about Rp 500 trilion.

Indonesia should learn from the Greeces case where welfare state programs could

damage the government budget. They experienced budget deficit 17% of GDP.

Tax revenue 2013 was only below Rp 1,000 trillion.

Indonesia should meet tax ratio about 17%-20% as achieved by some neighboring

countries.


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Government Debt to GDP Ratio: 22-23%

*Mei 2013


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PDB ASEAN, 2009-2012 (USD billion)

*World Bank (Data Myanmar tidak tersedia)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Singapore BruneiDarussalam

Cambodia Timor-Leste Laos Vietnam Philippines

2009 2010 2011 2012


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GDP Top 20 Countries, 2009-2012 (USD billion)

*World Bank

16,244.60

8,227.10

3,428.13

1,841.71

878.04

300

2,300

4,300

6,300

8,300

10,300

12,300

14,300

16,300 2009 2010 2011 2012

no.16

no.10


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Foreign Reserves in ASEAN (USD billion)

*World Bank

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Singapore BruneiDarussalam

Myanmar Cambodia Timor-Leste Laos Vietnam Philippines

2009 2010 2011 2012


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Infrastructure Development: Better Late than Never


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International Student Mobility

*UNESCO, Global Education Digest 2012


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International Student Mobility ASEAN



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International Student Mobility ASEAN


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Malaysia Vietnam Indonesia Thailand Singapore Philipina Myanmar Cambodia Timor Leste Brunei

Base on Country of Origin in 2010 Base on Host Countries in 2010


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International Student Mobility

*UNESCO


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Bank Dagang Negara (BDN), 1994-1998

* Source: Bank Mandiris Merger Plan, 22 June 1999.

Description 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998Total assets 20,893 22,516 22,505 35,954 32,051Earning assets 20,090 19,817 22,671 25,707 46,172Total loans 14,274 14,985 16,870 25,684 39,216Total deposits 13,671 14,657 16,198 23,973 45,635Total equity 1,226 1,352 1,559 1,759 (28,495)

Net income 149 161 218 237 (30,829)Return on assets (ROA) 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 n.a.Return on equity (ROE)

18.6

17.5

19.6

14.3

n.a.

Loan to deposit ratio (LDR) 78.4 75.9 80.6 89.4 75.9

Net interest margin (NIM) 4.3 2.6 2.3 1.9 (15.6)


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Bank Bumi Daya (BBD), 1994-1998


Description 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998Total assets 20,109 21,803 24,110 33,705 24,639Earning assets 19,505 21,024 21,896 30,605 42,348Total loans

16,051

17,489

17,086

25,604

36,244

Total deposits 12,388 14,222 17,403 22,784 43,365Total equity 1,090 1,146 1,560 1,698 (28,956)

Net income 49.3 52.2 65.8 162.3 (30,572)Return on assets (ROA) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 n.a.Return on equity (ROE) 6.5 7.7 6.4 13.9 n.a.Loan to deposit ratio (LDR) 95.9 93.4 81.0 87.6 71.0



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Bank Exim, 1994-1998


Description 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998Total assets 17,044 21,543 25,071 32,609 31,709Earning assets 15,515 19,054 22,406 30,023 45,439Total loans 8,785 10,860 14,315 21,859 34,201Total deposits 11,735 16,163 18,291 29,003 45,329Total equity 1,123 1,261 1,500 (2,739) (27,045)

Net income 83 138 196 (4,116) (44,549)Return on assets (ROA) 1.1 1.0 1.2 n.a. n.a.Return on equity (ROE) 16.2 17.0 19.4 n.a. n.a.Loan to deposit ratio (LDR) 61.1 59.9 65.1 64.1 65.7



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Bank Pembangunan Indonesia (Bapindo), 1994-1998


Description 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998Total assets 13,268 12,570 14,498 16,479 13,335Earning assets 12,938 13,132 14,828 17,448 22,896Total loans 11,226 12,218 13,030 15,658 20,312Total deposits 4,163 5,304 6,746 7,756 16,606Total equity 1,013 136 600 713 (9,058)Net income 6 (1,572) 464 104 (11,269)Return on assets (ROA) 0.1 (12.5) 3.7 1.2 n.a.Return on equity (ROE) 1.8 (1,156) 88.8 27.9 n.a.Loan to deposit ratio (LDR) 98.7 120 113.1 116.9 94.7

Net interest margin (NIM) 0.5 0.4 0.03 (0.9) (13.4)


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Bonus session

Neoliberalism

Page 43


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Neo-liberalism

World Bank (IBRD), International

Monetary Fund (the IMF) (1980s).

Restriction of governments role to thecreation of markets.

Otherwise, development proceeds best by

promoting markets internally andinternationally.


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Washington Consensus (1)

The Washington Consensus is well known as thegenericformula taken by the International Monetary

Fund (IMF) and the World Bank to rescue developing

countries from crisis, starting with Latin America in the

1980s.

In a broader sense, the Washington Consensus, which

was introduced by the US Government, IMF and the

World Bank, has basically 10 elements, which togethercomprise the three pillars: fiscal austerity, market

liberalisation and privatization of the SOEs(John

Williamson 1994: 267).


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Fiscal discipline:the government shouldhave a budget surplus of several per centof gross domestic product (GDP) or adeficit of no more than 2 per cent of GDP.

Public expenditurepriorities: favourefforts to improve income distribution.

Tax reform:broaden the base.


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Financial liberalization:ensure positive realrates and abolish preferential interest ratesfor favoured borrowers.

Exchange rates:set at a level to ensurecompetitiveness and credibility.

Trade liberalization:replace quantitative

restrictions and progressively reduce them.


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Foreign direct investment:allow foreign anddomestic firms to compete on equal footing.

Privatization:state-owned enterprises (SOEs)

should be privatized.

Deregulation:abolish barriers to entry orrestrictions on competition.

Property rights:make them secure for boththe formal and informal sectors.


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GDP per person(PPP) vs Global Population forecast

* The Economist


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Major Economic Indicators of Indonesian Economy

Indicator

Total GDP Rp 9,200 trillion (USD 8000 billion)

Population 245 million

Per capita GDP USD 3,600/person/year

Economic growth4.5% (2009), 6.1% (2010), 6.5% (2011)

6.23% (2012), 5,8%-5.9% (projected, 2013)

Inflation rate2.78% (2009), 6.96% (2010)

3.79% (2011), 4.3% (2012), 8,38% (2013) 8.22% yoy Feb 204

Benchmark rate (BI rate) 7.50% (May 2014)

International reserve USD 106.5 billion (April 2014)

Balance of trade (X-M)

+USD 22.6 billion (2009); +USD 22.12 billion (2010)

+USD 23.6 billion (2011); deficit USD 1.67 billion (2012)

deficit USD 4 billion (2013)

Government budget 2014 Rp 1,860 trillion (USD 170 billion)


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Indonesian Economy, 2013- 2014

Indicators 2013 2014

Economic Growth (%) 5.7-5.8 Max 5.5

Inflation rate (%) 8.38 6.5

BI rate (%) 7.5 7.0-7.5

Exchange rate(Rp per USD)

Rp 10,700-11,300 Rp 11,000-11,500

Loan Growth (%) 18-19 17

Projected by A. Tony Prasetiantono, May 2014.


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Kesimpulan Indonesia sedang mengalami tekanan likuditas yang tinggi. Penyebabnya adalah

pasar cukup khawatir dengan tekanan neraca transaksi berjalan. Melambatnyaperekonomian China (7,4%) memperburuk situasi ini.

Defisit transaksi berjalan menyebabkan cadangan devisa tertekan, sehingga kurs

rupiah tertekan. Akibatnya, pemilik dana tidak mau menempatkan dananya di

bank dengan suku bunga setara BI rate. Akibatnya, likuiditas bank tertekan, LDR

naik, biayafundingmeningkat. Bank Dunia memproyeksikan pertumbuhan ekonomi 5,3%, sementara IMF 5,4%

pada 2014.

Meski inflasi mulai melanda, BI ratesulit diturunkan, karena likuditas ketat.

Pilpres diharapkan sesuai ekspektasi, sehingga membangun confidence.

Presiden dan kabinet baru hendaknya fokus meningkatkan daya saing, melalui:

(1) pembangunan infrastruktur, (2) memperbaiki birokrasi dan memberantas

korupsi, (3) memperbaiki kualitas SDM melalui pengiriman anak-anak muda

bersekolah ke luar negeri secara agresif.


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A. Tony Prasetiantono.

Thankyou

Documents

Indonesian and Global Economic Update 2014