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1 Image source: Facebook “18th Asian Games Jakarta-Palembang 2018Indonesia Stock Exchange @indonesiastockexchange www.idx.co.id @IDX_BEI Indonesian Economic and Capital Market Development August 2018 Economic and Analysis Unit Research and Development Division

Indonesian Economic and Capital Market Developmentcompany.gazegaz.com/images/file/Indonesian-Economic-and... · 2018-09-19 · Indonesia Stock Exchange @indonesiastockexchange @IDX_BEI

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Image source: Facebook “18th Asian Games Jakarta-Palembang 2018”

Indonesia Stock Exchange @indonesiastockexchangewww.idx.co.id @IDX_BEI

Indonesian Economic and Capital Market Development

August 2018

Economic and Analysis Unit

Research and Development Division

Current Global Issues

2Source: Financial Times, The Cagle Post, The Economist, Royal Dutch Shell Group (News and Information Portal), Global Americans.

3

Indonesia EconomyAugust 2018

Source: Bank Indonesia, Statistics Indonesia

+3.20% (yoy)

Headline Inflation

Target 2018: (3.5%±1%)

-7.89% (ytd)

IDR/USDIDR14,730

+5.27%Real Economic Growth Q2-2018(yoy)

Foreign Reserve

USD118.31 bn-9.13% (ytd)

5.50%BI 7-Day RR Rate

Trade Surplus/DeficitUSD2.03 bn

as of July 2018

Indonesia Current Condition vs Past Crises

IDR Depreciation (%)Depreciation rate is lower than 1998 & 2008

Inflation (%)Inflation is controlled under the revised budget target

Policy Rate (%)Policy rate is significantly lower

External Debt/GDPSlightly higher than 2008, but significantly

lower than 1998

Foreign Reserves (USD Billion)Significantly higher than 1998 & 2008, ample to cover 6.7 months of import and external

debt repayment

Government Debt/GDP (%)Continue to decline and allocated to

productive sectors

External Debt (Public & Private) to FX Reserve Ratio

Significantly lower than 1998 crisis

100.0%27.4%

20172008

8.6x

2008 QII-2018

3.1x 3.0x

116.8%

2008 QII-2018

33.2% 34.3%

Source: Bank Indonesia

1998 19981998

4

256

1,111

6,018.46

1998 2008 Aug-18

2.67

3.80

30.00

Jun-18

2008

1998

Non-Performing Loan (NPL, %)NPL level is below the maximum threshold of

5%

118.31

50.20

17.40

Jul-18

2008

1998

-7.89%

-35%

-197%

Aug-18

2008

1998

JCI Index (IHSG)JCI is significantly higher than 1998 & 2008

29.2%

60

9.25 5.50

1998 2008 Aug-18

55.67

10.273.20

1998 2008 Aug-18

5

Coordination Forum of Financial System Stability

(Based on Law No. 21 of 2011)

BankIndonesia

Monetary policy

Payment system

Macroprudentialpolicy

Financial Service Authority (OJK)

Banking

Non-bank Financial

Institutions

Capital Market

Indonesia DepositInsurance Corporation (LPS)

Insurance Program

Settlement and Bank Failure Management

Ministry ofFinance

State treasury

Fiscal authority

Indonesia Financial System 5

Indonesia Stock Exchange and its Subsidiaries

6

Self Regulatory Organizations (SRO)

100%ownership

20%ownership

11.5% ownership

Capital Market Education

Credit Rating

Investor Protection Fund

Bond Pricing Agency

Media Channel

Indonesia Securities Fund

77

Advantages of T+2 implementation:

• Post-trading efficiency;

• Settlement time alignment with

global stock exchanges (EU

countries, India, Hong Kong,

Taiwan);

• Higher market liquidity;

• Faster fund circulation; and

• Market risk reduction.

• IDX BUMN 2O

20 stocks of SOEs, Municipal-

Owned, and affi l iates based on

market capitalization and liquidity.

• IDX High Dividend 20

20 stocks that give cash dividends

for the past 3 years and have high

dividend yields.

• JII70 Index

70 sharia stocks based on market

capitalization and liquidity.

All-new layout design about:

• Investment products;

• Global and domestic capital

market;

• Listed companies in IDX; and

• Entertainment area, such as photo

booth, games, and animation

depicting capital market settings.

1New Data Centerand TradingSystem Upgrade

Trading capacity is now three times higher.

Efficiency, acceleration, and post-trade processing accuracy.

Launched as new guidance for investors to construct their portfolio.

A modern-tech museum gallery named Galeri Yuk Nabung Saham.Before After

Orderper day

5 mn 15 mn

Transactionper day

2.5 mn 7.5 mn

Orderper second

4,000 12,500

Trading capacity:

2 Implementationof T+2

3 New IndicesLaunching

4 New Museum Gallery

What’s new in 2018

8

AUM ETFIDR 10.04 Tn(USD 680.74 Mn)

AUM REITIDR 529.62 Bn

(USD 38.17 Mn)

Outstanding ABS

IDR 10.48 Tn(USD 712.39 Mn)

Outstanding

Bond

Govt IDR 2,276.65 Tn(USD 154.76 Bn)

Corp IDR 407.18 Tn(USD 27.68 Bn)

Stock Market Capitalization

IDR 6,783.26 Tn(USD 461.10 Billion)

Indonesia Capital Market – August 2018

8

PRODUCTS

ExchangeMembers

105

Single Investor ID 750,192

Stock 598

Bond & Sukuk113

Issuers

ETF 20

Warrant 33

REIT 1

Futures (contracts) 9

ABS 14

USD/IDR : 14,711 (BI)

Source: Bloomberg & IDX

4,873 4,284 5,503 5,484 5,928

7,827

11,953 10,558

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

4,953 4,537

6,238 6,006 5,764

7,498 7,603 8,712

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

113,454 121,712 153,686

212,635 221,583 264,127

312,485

390,386

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

3,5374,127 4,219

5,228 4,8735,754

7,052 6,783

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

9

Average Daily Trading Volumemillion shares

Average Daily Trading Turnoverbillion IDR

Average Daily Number of Tradestimes

Market Capitalizationtrillion IDR

+16.1% p.a

+7.4% p.a

+18.4% p.a

+12.2% p.a

Average Daily Trading and Market Capitalization2011 – 31 Agustus 2018

Jakarta Composite Index – 10 YearsAnnual Return Trend

10

2,745.826

1,355.408

2,534.356

3,703.512

3,821.992

4,316.687 4,274.177

5,226.947

4,593.008

5,296.711

6,355.654 6,018.460

D-07 D-08 D-09 D-10 D-11 D-12 D-13 D-14 D-15 D-16 D-17 D-182008 2009 2010

86.98%-50.64%

3.20%

2011 2012 2013

46.13% 12.94%

2014

-0.98%

2015

22.29%

2016

15.32%-12.13%

2017

19.99%

+245%+12% pa

2006 - 2017

2007 – 31 August 2018

2018

-5.31%

JCI vs Major World Indices

11

±10 Years Period*%YTD 2018

Source: Bloomberg *31 Dec 2007 – 31 Jul 2018

-13.03%

-10.36%

-6.98%

-6.60%

-4.47%

-2.96%

-2.44%

-0.93%

-0.87%

-0.70%

0.79%

3.22%

3.74%

5.34%

10.42%

China: Shanghai

Philippines

South Korea

Indonesia

Hong Kong

Thailand

Singapore

Japan

Germany

Malaysia

UK

Australia

France

US: S&P500

India

-45.33%

-4.21%

-1.83%

-0.85%

2.77%

20.01%

20.99%

23.47%

47.34%

58.73%

85.37%

91.80%

98.32%

111.84%

116.20%

China: Shanghai

Singapore

France

Australia

Hong Kong

UK

South Korea

Malaysia

Japan

Germany

India

US: S&P500

Thailand

Philippines

Indonesia

MSCI Index Comparison January 2008 – 31 August 2018 (2008=100)

12

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

Jul-1

8

MSCI IndonesiaUSD 174.40

MSCI World USD 136.93

MSCI EM USD 84.75

MSCI BRIC USD 68.77

MSCI ASEAN USD 107.32

Aug-

18

Based on Sectors & Top 20

Market Capitalization

13

31 Agustus 2018

Source: IDX

Market

Capitalization

(in Trillion Rp)

1. BBCA Bank Central Asia Tbk. 605.33 8.92

2. HMSP H.M. Sampoerna Tbk. 445.50 6.57

3. BBRI Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. 388.32 5.72

4. TLKM Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. [S] 351.79 5.19

5. UNVR Unilever Indonesia Tbk. [S] 334.58 4.93

6. BMRI Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk. 318.78 4.70

7. ASII Astra International Tbk. [S] 293.51 4.33

8. BBNI Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. 144.00 2.12

9. GGRM Gudang Garam Tbk. 140.46 2.07

10. UNTR United Tractors Tbk. [S] 128.32 1.89

11. INKP Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk. 104.50 1.54

12. ICBP Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk. [S] 101.17 1.49

13. TPIA Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk. [S] 98.08 1.45

14. CPIN Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk. [S] 81.66 1.20

15. BYAN Bayan Resources Tbk. [S] 65.83 0.97

16. INTP Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk. [S] 65.25 0.96

17. BDMN Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk. 64.52 0.95

18. MYOR Mayora Indah Tbk. [S] 64.39 0.95

19. KLBF Kalbe Farma Tbk. [S] 63.05 0.93

20. SMMA Sinar Mas Multiartha Tbk. 60.49 0.89

3,919.53 57.78

6,783.26

%No. Code Company

Market Capitalization of The 20 Stocks

Total IDX

1.7%

12.9%

8.7%

4.8%10.5%

10.0%

13.2%

24.6% 13.6%

1.6%

6.6%

9.6%

5.4%

20.2%

5.7%

10.5%

29.7%

10.7%

Agriculture (106 T)

Mining (447 T)

Basic Industry And

Chemicals (651 T)

Miscellaneous Industry (367

T)

Consumer Goods Industry

(1,370 T)

Property And Real Estate

(384 T)

Infrastructure, Utilities &

Transportation (714 T)

Finance (2,017 T)

Trade, Services &

Investment (727 T)Market

Capitalization

Trading

Value

Top 20 Listed Companies by Net Income

14

*) 557 companies out of 569

Jun 2018* compared to Jun 2017

30-Jun-18 30-Jun-17

1. BBRI 14.93 13.45 11.05%

2. ASII 13.19 11.36 16.18%

3. TLKM 12.81 17.50 -26.80%

4. BMRI 12.58 9.86 27.61%

5. BBCA 11.42 10.54 8.39%

6. BBNI 7.45 6.47 15.09%

7. HMSP 6.11 6.05 1.04%

8. UNTR 5.74 3.58 60.63%

9. INKP 4.91 2.28 115.21%

10. TOBA 4.51 0.19 2212.91%

11. MPMX 4.22 0.35 1101.94%

12. BYAN 4.14 1.72 141.49%

13. WSKT 3.96 1.43 177.36%

14. GGRM 3.56 3.13 13.79%

15. UNVR 3.53 3.62 -2.60%

16. ADRO 3.23 3.32 -2.66%

17. ELTY 3.05 0.03 9112.17%

18. PTBA 2.62 1.75 49.99%

19. INDF 2.43 3.07 -20.85%

20. CPIN 2.43 1.52 59.60%

Total of 20 Listed Companies 126.83 101.20 25.32%

Total IDX 191.00 169.00 13.02%

Unilever Indonesia Tbk.

Bakrieland Development Tbk.

United Tractors Tbk.

Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk.

Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk.

Mitra Pinasthika Mustika Tbk.

Bayan Resources Tbk.

Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Persero) Tbk.

Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk.

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk.

Astra International Tbk.

Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk.

Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk.

Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk.

H.M. Sampoerna Tbk.

Waskita Karya (Persero) Tbk.

Gudang Garam Tbk.

Code Listed CompaniesChange

(%)No

Adaro Energy Tbk.

Bukit Asam Tbk.

Bank Central Asia Tbk.

Profit For The Period

(Trillion Rp)

Equity IPO History

15Source: IDX

No. Code Company IDR Billion Sub Sector

1 BRIS Bank BRI Syariah Tbk. 1,337.91 Bank

2 HEAL Medikaloka Hermina Tbk. 1,300.11 Healthcare

3 MAPA Map Aktif Adiperkasa Tbk. 897.88 Retail Trade

4 IPCC Indonesia Kendaraan Terminal Tbk. 835.00 Toll Road, Airport, Harbor And Allied Products

5 SPTO Surya Pertiw i Tbk. 812.00 Wholesale

6 MSIN MNC Studios International Tbk. 780.00 Advertising, Printing & Media

7 POLL PT Pollux Properti Indonesia Tbk. 767.41 Property & Real Estate

8 BTPS BTPN Syariah Tbk. 751.11 Bank

9 TUGU Asuransi Tugu Pratama Indonesia Tbk. 684.44 Insurance

10 PZZA Sarimelati Kencana Tbk. 664.81 Tourism, Rest. and Hotel

11 PRIM Royal Prima Tbk. 600.00 Healthcare

12 TDPM Tridomain Performance Material Tbk. 411.02 Chemicals

13 NFCX PT NFC Indonesia Tbk. 308.33 Retail Trade

14 LAND Trimitra Propertindo Tbk. 301.59 Property And Real Estate

15 FILM MD Pictures Tbk. 274.63 Advertising, Printing & Media

16 RISE Jaya Sukses Makmur Sentosa Tbk. 244.50 Property & Real Estate

17 MOLI Madusari Murni Indah Tbk. 203.58 Chemicals

18 NUSA PT Sinergi Megah Internusa Tbk. 180.00 Tourism, Restaurant & Hotel

19 GHON Gihon Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk. 178.87 Non Building Construction

20 BOSS Borneo Olah Sarana Sukses Tbk. 160.00 Coal Mining

21 MGRO PT Mahkota Group Tbk. 158.33 Plantation

22 TCPI Transcoal Pacif ic Tbk. 138.00 Transportation

23 SWAT Sriw ahana Adityakarta Tbk. 106.27 Pulp & Paper

24 ANDI Andira Agro Tbk 100.00 Plantation

25 JSKY Sky Energy Indonesia Tbk. 81.30 Electronics

26 DFAM Dafam Property Indonesia Tbk. 46.00 Tourism, Rest. and Hotel

27 LCKM LCK Global Kedaton Tbk. 41.60 Non Building Construction

28 INPS Indah Prakasa Sentosa Tbk. 41.40 Wholesale

29 KPAL Steadfast Marine Tbk. 40.25 Machinery And Heavy Equipment

30 NICK Charnic Capital Tbk. 40.00 Investment Company

31 BPTR Batavia Prosperindo Trans Tbk. 40.00 Transportation

32 TRUK Guna Timur Raya Tbk 34.50 Transportation

33 TNCA Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk. 30.00 Transportation

34 HELI Jaya Trishindo Tbk. 27.50 Transportation

Total Fund Raised 12,618.35

2018

21

31

22

6

12

8

12

22

19

13

23

25

23

31

24

18

16

37

34

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

Number of Companies IDR Tn

Number of IPO (LHS)

Total Value of New Issue (RHS)

Latest Equity IPO (2017)

16Source: IDX

No. Code Company IDR Billion Sub Sector

1 GMFI Garuda Maintenance Facility Aero Asia Tbk. 1,129.34 Machinery and Heavy Equipment

2 PPRE PP Presisi Tbk. 1,011.03 Non Building Construction

3 WEGE Wijaya Karya Bangunan Gedung Tbk. 832.88 Building Construction

4 KMTR Kirana Megatara Tbk. 527.82 Others

5 TOPS Totalindo Eka Persada Tbk. 516.46 Building Construction

6 ARMY Armidian Karyatama Tbk. 491.25 Property And Real Estate

7 DWGL Dwi Guna Laksana Tbk. 465.00 Wholesale (Durable & Non-Durable Goods)

8 IPCM Jasa Armada Indonesia Tbk. 461.89 Transportation

9 HRTA Hartadinata Abadi Tbk. 331.58 Others

10 WOOD Integra Indocabinet Tbk 325.00 Houseware

11 PBID Panca Budi Idaman Tbk. 318.75 Plastics & Packaging

12 NASA Ayana Land International Tbk. 309.00 Tourism, Restaurant and Hotel

13 PORT Nusantara Pelabuhan Handal Tbk. 308.62 Transportation

14 MCAS M Cash Integrasi Tbk. 300.52 Retail Trade

15 CAMP Campina Ice Cream Industry Tbk. 292.05 Food & Beverages

16 CARS Industri dan Perdagangan Bintraco Dharma Tbk. 262.50 Wholesale (Durable & Non-Durable Goods)

17 HOKI Buyung Poetra Sembada Tbk. 217.00 Food And Beverages

18 MDKI Emdeki Utama Tbk. 184.35 Chemicals

19 FIRE Alfa Energi Investama Tbk. 150.00 Coal Mining

20 PSSI Pelita Samudera Shipping Tbk. 135.81 Transportation

21 TGRA Terregra Asia Energy Tbk. 110.00 Energy

22 TAMU Pelayaran Tamarin Samudra Tbk. 82.50 Transportation

23 FINN First Indo American Leasing Tbk. 80.43 Financial Institution

24 ZINC Kapuas Prima Coal Tbk. 77.00 Metal and Mineral Mining

25 PCAR Prima Cakrawala Abadi Tbk. 70.00 Food And Beverages

26 FORZ Forza Land Indonesia Tbk. 68.75 Property And Real Estate

27 CSIS Cahayasakti Investindo Sukses Tbk. 62.10 Building Construction

28 JMAS Asuransi Jiwa Syariah Jasa Mitra Abadi Tbk. 56.00 Insurance

29 MABA Marga Abhinaya Abadi Tbk. 53.09 Tourism, Restaurant And Hotel

30 CLEO Sariguna Primatirta Tbk. 51.75 Food And Beverages

31 MPOW Megapower Makmur Tbk. 49.02 Energy

32 BELL Trisula Textile Industries Tbk. 45.00 Textile, Garment

33 KIOS Kioson Komersial Indonesia Tbk. 45.00 Retail Trade

34 MARK Mark Dynamics Indonesia Tbk 40.00 Ceramics, Glass, Porcelain

35 MAPB MAP Boga Adiperkasa Tbk. 37.25 Tourism, Restaurant And Hotel

36 MTWI Malacca Trust Wuwungan Insurance Tbk. 31.00 Insurance

37 MINA Sanurhasta Mitra Tbk. 27.56 Tourism, Restaurant And Hotel

Total Fund Raised 9,557.30

2017

Investors Composition in Equity Market

17

Ownership

TradingActivity

Source: IDX, Custodian House (KSEI) A significant change in domestic investors percentage has turned upsince TaxAmnesty Program

57.97% 59.42% 56.79% 63.23% 63.37% 61.14%

42.03% 40.58% 43.21% 36.77% 36.63% 38.86%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan-Aug 2018

Foreign

Domestic

37.06% 35.51% 36.21%45.51% 48.67% 47.30%

62.94% 64.49% 63.79%54.49% 51.33% 52.70%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Aug-18

Foreign

Domestic

Source: IDX

18

IDX Distribution Channel

29 Representative Offices

6 Go-Public Centers

401 Investment Galleries

390 Investment Communities

End of This Document

23

DISCLAIMER

The facts and opinions stated or expressed in this publication are for information purposes only and are not necessarily and mustnot be relied upon as being those of the publisher or of the institutions for which the contributing authors work. Although everycare has been taken to ensure the accuracy of the information contained within the publication, it should not be by any personrelied upon as the basis for taking any action or making any decision. The Indonesia Stock Exchange cannot be held liable orotherwise responsible in anyway for any advice, action taken or decision made on the basis of the facts and opinions stated orexpressed or stated within this publication

For further inquiries :

Heidy Ruswita SariHead of Economic Analysis [email protected]+6221 515015 ext.4120

Adhel [email protected]+6221 515015 ext.4110

Luthfi F [email protected]+6221 515015 ext.4109

Anita K [email protected]+6221 515015 ext.4110

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