INDIA NATIONAL REPORT ON DISASTER RISK, POVERTY AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT RELATIONSHIP

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INDIA NATIONAL REPORT ON DISASTER RISK, POVERTY AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT RELATIONSHIP

Disaster Risk Reduction and Poverty : Case study of Orissa and Tamil NaduFinal Review Meeting: Asia – Bangkok

India ReportNovember 5, 2008

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Introduction

Chapter 1 – Overall hazard vulnerability & poverty in India, Framework, Methodology

Chapter 2 – Mapping socio-economic vulnerabilities

Chapter 3 – Mapping of Hazard RiskChapter 4 – Mapping of disaster impactsChapter 5 – Vulnerabilities and Disaster

LinkagesChapter 6 – Way forward

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NSDP and Per Capita NSDP GR (1993-94 to 2004-05)

NSDP Per Capita NSDP

Orissa 5.15 3.74

Tamil Nadu 5.52 4.22

India 7.07 5.58

India Per Capita GDP ($PPP) (2006) = US$ 3,452

India GDP at Current Prices, 2005-06 = Rs. 25,716

Tamil Nadu Per Capita Net State Domestic Product (NSDP) (2005-06, at current prices) = Rs. 29,958 (1.16 times of India)

Orissa Per Capita Net State Domestic Product (NSDP) (2005-06, at current prices) = Rs. 17,299(0.67 times of India)

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GDP Composition

Composition of NSDP - Orissa

19.58

44.5935.83

Primary Secondary Tertiary

Composition of NSDP - Tamil Nadu

56.04

13.96

30.00


Composition of GDP - India

52.41

24.78

22.81


In Orissa 36% GDP from primary sector & just 20% from secondary sector

In India, just 22% GDP from primary sector & 25% from secondary sector

In Tamil Nadu, 30% GDP from secondary & just 14% GDP from primary

Jobless growth in India primarily because of relatively small secondary sector

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Employment & Urbanization

Just 27.5% population in India living in urban areas Orissa, just 15% living in urban areas Tamil Nadu 44% living in urban areas

59% of working population in India employed in primary sector when its GDP share is only 22%

64% or working population in Orissa employed in primary sector, when its GDP share is 36%

Inspite of high urbanization level, 46% of workers in Tamil Nadu engaged in primary sector with income share of 14%

India in general and both states in particular have stress in rural economy

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Comparing Indian and international poverty lines

Poverty Lines At Current Prices (in Per Capita Per Month)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

19

93

-94

20

04

-05

Year

Rs

.

India - Rural India - Urban Orissa - RuralOrissa - Urban Tamil Nadu - Rural Tamil Nadu - UrbanGlobal

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Poverty Profile - India

Incidence of poverty in India, the Head Count Ratio is 28.7% for rural and 25.7% for urban in 2004-05

220.9 millions in rural and 80.80 millions in urban areas live below the officially defined poverty line in 2004-05

Total 301.72 million population living below poverty line in 2004-05

Just 18.65 million population have come out of poverty from 1993-94 to 2004-05 (in last 10 years)

Slowing down of poverty decline is inspite of high economic growth rate in this period.

Growth is accompanied by increasing inequalities

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Rural Poverty - IndiaIncidence and Changes in Rural Poverty in States

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

WB

Ors

Bih

UP

Asm

MP

JK

Har

Pu

n

HP

Gu

j

Mah

Raj

TN

Kar

Ker

AP

IND

States

Head

Co

un

t R

ati

o1993-94

2004-05

Change in poverty(% points)

There is regional dimension to rural poverty. Eastern states have the highest rural poverty followed by western states & southern states

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Poverty Among SC, ST and All - Rural

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

WB

Ors

Bih

MP

Ker

Mah

TN

UP

Kar

Asm

AP

Guj

JK

Raj

Har

Pun

HP

IND

States

ST SC All

Perc

enta

ges

Rural poverty also has social dimension; The HCR among Scheduled Tribes (STs) is 48% and among Scheduled Castes (SC) is 35% in 2004-05

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Poverty in Orissa

47% rural population below official poverty line 44% urban population below official poverty line Increase in urban poverty from 41% to 44% in

1993-94 to 2004-05 period Rural poverty gap index value 12.1 and urban PG

index value 14.1 in 2004-05 Gini coefficient increased in rural from 24.6 to 28.5 Gini coefficient in urban increased from 30.7 to

35.4 Poverty among SCs is 50% and among STs is 77% SCs 16.5% of state’s population and STs 22.1%

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Poverty in Tamil Nadu

23% rural population below official poverty line 22% urban population below official poverty line Decrease in urban poverty from 40% to 22% in

1993-94 to 2004-05 period Rural poverty gap index value 3.7 and urban PG

index value 5.3 in 2004-05 Gini coefficient increased in rural from 31.2 to 32.2 Gini coefficient in urban increased from 34.8 to

36.1 Poverty among SCs is 30% and among STs is 31% SC 19% of state’s population and STs just 1%

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IMRs - Manifestation

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Orissa Tamil Nadu India

Male

Female

PersonOrissa Tamil Nadu India

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Malnourishment Among Children

010

2030

4050

Orissa TamilNadu

India

% Stunted

NFHS - 1

NFHS - 2

NFHS - 3

0

51015

2025

Orissa TamilNadu

India

% Wasted

NFHS - 1

NFHS - 2

NFHS - 3

0102030405060

Orissa TamilNadu

India

% Underweight

NFHS - 1

NFHS - 2

NFHS - 3

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Hazard prone areas of India

Of the 35 states and union territories, 27 area hazard prone

241 districts are multi-hazard prone

May to November months are the most hazard-prone

Disaster Vulnerable States/ Regions

1 Tsunami* Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Pondicherry and Andaman & Nicobar Islands

2 Earthquake Across the country with moderate – high intensity (over 65% of the areas of India is vulnerable to earthquake)

3 Cyclones Coastal areas – particularly in East coast & Gujarat (8% of area)

4 Floods Indo-Gangetic plains and Brahamaputra basin (approx comprises 40 million hectares prone to floods)

5 Droughts A slow disaster across the country (approx 68% of cropped area affected)

6 Forest Fires Himalayan Forests

7 Landslides Sub-Himalayan region & western Ghats in particular

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Earthquake Hazard

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Wind & Cyclone Hazard

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Wind & Cyclone Hazard Zone, Orissa

Whole of coastal region is hazard proof

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Coastal Tamil Nadu is also hazard proof

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Annual trends of Disaster - Orissa

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Num

ber

of E

vent

s

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Year

Annual Distribution of Climatic Disasters (1998-2006)

0

1000

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6000

7000N

umbe

r of

Eve

nts

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Year

Annual Distribution of Other Than Climatic Disasters (1998-2006)

Higher incidence reported after 2003 in Orissa because of better reporting

Question of quality of data

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Annual Disaster Trend – Tamil Nadu

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Dat

a C

ard

s

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Annual Distribution of Climatic and Water Related Disasers (1998-2006)

0

10

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90

Dat

a C

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s

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Annual Distribution of Geological Disasters (1998-2006)

0

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700

Data

Card

s

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Annual Distribution of Other Disasters (1998-2006)

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Literacy Rate, 2004-05

Male Female

Rural

Orissa 62.5 46.0


All India 63.6 45.0

Urban

Orissa 77.3 66.4


All India 80.5 69.3

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SC – ST Literacy

Rural Urban Male Female Person Male Female Person

SC Orissa 61.1 36.2 48.8 80.6 46.8 64.6 Tamil Nadu 64.5 43.6 53.3 83.1 64.9 74.1 All India 59.3 31.5 45.6 80.7 55.0 68.5 ST Orissa 43.9 19.7 31.3 70.4 39.1 54.5 Tamil Nadu 43.9 19.7 30.2 71.9 35.5 58.1 All India 54.2 28.5 41.4 82.4 60.1 71.3

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Orissa : Natural Hazards (1998-2007)

Population affected

40%

18%0%0%0%

42%

Flood Cyclone Lightning Heatwave Fire Epidemics

Disaster Events (1998-2007)

1 4.80.1 0.10.1

93.9

Flood Cyclone Lightning Heatwave Fire Epidemic

Orissa

Cyclone dominates disaster events

Epidemics lead population affected

Epidemics lead human deaths followed by cyclone

Orissa : Natural Hazards(1998-2007)

Human Death

2%

39%

8%9%1%

41%


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Destroyed Houses10%

83%

0%0% 7% 0%



Property Loss

75%

20%0%0% 5% 0%


Buildings largely damaged by cyclone

Property loss due to floods

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Distribution of Disaster Data Cards (1998-2006)

15%

10%

1%

34%

1%

34%

2%

2%

1%

0%

Flood Rains Lighting Drought Tsunami

Flash Flood Cyclone Fire Epidemics Fire

Tamil Nadu

Distribution of Population Exposed by Type of Disaster (1998-2006)

44%

55%

0%1%0%

0%

Flood Cyclone Tsunami Fire Epidemics others

Largest data cards of fire

Largest proportion of population exposed is floods

Largest death because of Tsunami

Distribution Human Deaths by Type of Disaster (1998-2006)

22%

5%

11%

0%

49%

4%

9%

Flood Cyclone Tsunami Lightning Fire Epidemics others

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Distribution of Building Damaged &Destroyed by Type of Disaster (1998-2006)

69%

0%

8%

6%

17%

Flood Cyclone Tsunami Fire others

Distribution of Building Damaged &Destroyed by Type of Disaster (1998-2006)

52%

6%

16%

8%

18%

Flood Cyclone Tsunami Fire others

Largest proportion of buildings damaged because of floods

Largest property damaged because of floods

Tamil Nadu

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Key development and poverty challenges Rural poverty Low ranking on Hunger Index of India. Tamil

Nadu and Orissa in category of alarming level of hunger

Increasing inequalities Children and women’s health Low female literacy (taken as proxy for poverty

in some studies such as Gujarat State’s HDR) A quarter in Tamil Nadu and about half

households in Orissa live in temporary house structures. This is also a proxy for poverty

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MethodologyEnhance

Poverty Outcomes Disaster Risk The reverse loop Disaster Risk to Poverty requires

longitudinal household level data, which not available at the moment in India

Attempt is to capture poverty through Head Count Ratio (Private estimates) Proportion of SC and ST (Population Census) (Proxy for poverty) Temporary Housing (Population Census) (Proxy for poverty)

District Level Analysis of these dimensions of poverty with disaster data

Relationship of Poverty and Disaster Risk captured through correlations & scatter diagrams

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Data issues

A Caution – District Level Poverty estimates are private estimates and not individual estimates. Official level poverty estimates are only upto state level

Disinventar Data – Better reporting in the last three years

TN – Tsunami dominates the impacts which cannot be seen across all the districts (More than half the deaths in last 10 years is because of tsunami)

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Poverty disaster linkages – Some observations

Tamilnadu reports 283 epidemic-related deaths whereas the figure for Orissa is a shocking 9848. The poverty-disaster link can be established here.

In Tamil Nadu, epidemic related deaths localised in 4 backward districts, in Orissa spread throughout the state indicating poor public provisioning of health care.

No death due to heat wave reported in Tamil Nadu inspite of warm climate indicating possibility of quicker access to emergency care.

In Orissa, the bulk of disaster loss is borne by the coastal districts which are not only at much higher levels of per capita income, but also are better off in terms of infrastructure and human poverty criteria than the interior districts. This is in part the consequence of locational vulnerability to climatic hazards, and may also reflect the greater degree of urbanization and higher density of population of the coastal districts.

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Flood deaths are higher in Tamil Nadu than Orissa because of higher population density in the former.

Fire related deaths in Tamil Nadu are higher than in Orissa and are concentrated in the industrialized belt of Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kancheepuram and Vellore

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Correlations – Poverty with disaster impacts

Orissa

Of HCR with

% permanent housing -0.44% ST 0.72% SC -0.20% temporary housing -0.14Deaths per 100,000 population - floods

- 0.11

Deaths per 100,000 population - cyclone

- 0.18

Deaths per 100,000 population - heatwave

-0.23

Deaths per 100,000 population – fire

-0.39

Deaths per 100,000 population - epidemics

-0.41

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HCR & Deaths Due to Floods

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

HCR

Dea

ths

per 1

0000

0

Series1

Linear (Series1)

HCR & Death Due to Epidemics, Orissa

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

HCR

Dea

ths

due

to e

pide

mic

s

Series1

Linear (Series1)

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Orissa

Of % SC with

% permanent housing -0.21% temporary housing 0.37Deaths per 100,000 population - floods

0.16

Deaths per 100,000 population - cyclone

-0.08

Deaths per 100,000 population - heatwave

-0.12

Deaths per 100,000 population – fire

0.21

Deaths per 100,000 population - epidemics

0.23

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Orissa

Of % temporary housing with

Deaths per 100,000 population - floods 0.21Deaths per 100,000 population - cyclone 0.40Deaths per 100,000 population - heatwave 0.22Deaths per 100,000 population – fire 0.10Deaths per 100,000 population - epidemics 0.46Population exposed (per 100,000 total population) 0.57Population exposed to floods (per 100,000 total population)

0.51

Population exposed to cyclone (per 100,000 total population)

0.54

Population exposed to lightning (per 100,000 total population)

0.31

Population exposed fire (per 100,000 total population)

0.65

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Orissa

37

Tamil Nadu

38

Orissa

Tamil Nadu

39

Tamil Nadu

Orissa

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Conclusions

The correlations presented are indications of relationship existing

Two states taken contrast each other in development trajectories and nature of state policy

i) Orissa historically less developed, agricultural, subsistence economy, a section of population adversely impacted by degrading natural resources. Inefficient state in intervening for welfare.

ii) Tamil Nadu, historically well developed, industrial economy, with a long history of welfare interventions. Efficient welfare state

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Way forward

This report should lead to developing data base of households in disaster prone areas. This should lead to longitudinal data sets. Disaster management has been mainstreamed in India in the 11th Plan Document and such data can be useful.

Move towards district level poverty estimates

Improvement in Disinventor data itself.

Documents

INDIA NATIONAL REPORT ON DISASTER RISK, POVERTY AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT RELATIONSHIP