i. Distribution of Global Main Shocks: Seasonal and ...colin/research/EarthQukes/Workshop/Ezra_Mizrahi_J… · and time of (M≥6.8 ) global main shocks that occurred from 1973 to

Distribution of Global Main Shocks: Seasonal and Antipodal Behavior - Solar Activity Distribution – 27.01.10Ezra Mizrahi ©, Ronen Hazan, Susan Hazan, Dionyssios Mintzopoulos, Nissim Hazan, Moran Mizrahi - http://www.geo-map.org

2010 Workshop on Earthquake Precursors Tel Aviv University, 27 January, 2010

i. Distribution of Global Main Shocks: Seasonal and Antipodal Behavior

ii. Solar Activity Distribution

Ezra Mizrahi - Lead Researcher, Geo-mapRonen Hazan

Susan Hazan

-

Coordinator Geo-map Dionyssios

Mintzopoulos

Nissim

HazanMoran Mizrahi

http://tau.ac.il/~colin/research/EarthQukes/Workshop/workshop3.html


i. Distribution of Global Main Shocks: Seasonal and Antipodal BehaviorFrom equilibrium into chaotic and complex behavior

After a large earthquake seismic rates increase sharply, and each shock at each specific location acts to trigger other shocks. This force pushes the tectonic dynamo from its natural tendency of equilibrium into chaotic and complex behavior, acting as a nonlinear dynamic system.

Earthquake behavior, like all dynamic systems are dependent upon

their opening or initial conditions. These conditions may reflect the basic pattern of global main shock distribution before the sensitivity to the conditions pushes the system into complex behavior that is then marked by self-similarity and fractals.

Data were taken from NEIC/USGS catalog after filtering out the aftershocks, using the magnitude range, spatial distance, fault distribution and time window (total 726 main shocks from 824 shocks).See table on

http://www geo-map.org

On the assumption that major and large main shocks can be defined as an initial condition in earthquake systems, we investigate the distribution in space and time of (M≥6.8 ) global main shocks that occurred from 1973 to the present (37 years).

http://www.geo-map.org/


0102030405060708090

week

1- 4

week

5- 8

week

9-12

week

13-1

6wee

k 17

-20

week

21-2

4wee

k 25

-28

week

29-3

2wee

k 33

-36

week

37-4

0wee

k 41

-44

week

45-4

8wee

k 49

-52

Cou

ntSeasonal Cycles

Distribution of all M≥6.8 for time range1973-present. One year contains 52 weeks, data are binned with a 4-week window. This distribution shows a fairly regular annual cycle.


01020

30405060

708090

Jan-Apr Feb-May Mar-Jun Oct-Jul Nov-Aug Dec-Sep

negative declinatinpositive declination

Seasonal Cycles

Seasonal changes of M≥6.8 numbers for 37 years, divided by seasonal declination.Red represents 6 months of negative declination and blue represents 6 months of positive declination.

This indicates the same annual curve that alternates each quarter from the ascending phase with maximum earthquakes occurring in October and July to declining phase and minimum of seismic activity occurring in April and February.


Seasonal Cycles

Mars 20/21 equinox

Sep 22/23 equinox

SolsticeDec 21/22

Solstice Jun 21/22

152.1 M.Km 147.3 M.Km

Perigee

Winter178 shocks

Spring 172 shocks

Summer 173 shocks

Autumn 213 shocks

Declination-23.5

00.20.40.60.8

11.2

Winter Spring Summer Autumn

Numbers of shocksNumbers of new and full moon at perigeeDeclination deg

-40

-20

0

20

40


Distance Million Km

144146148150152154


Declination+23.5

PerihelonJan 2Declination 0

Moon orbit

Apogee

AphelionJuly 2

Declination 0

27 syzygy preigee phase




The elliptical orbits of the Earth around the sun Earth’s declination and the moon orbit around the Earth. When the moon is new or full (syzygy) and closest to the Earth at perigee, and when the Earth is closest to the sun (perihelion), gravitational forces are at maximum. The four seasons that change between equinoxes and solstices the syzygy

the declination and the distance shows the same relative ratios: as the distance from the sun decreases the negative declination grows and vice versa.


Seasonal Cycles

Numbers of full and new moon at perigee for 37 years

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan

Feb

Mar Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep

OctNov Dec

coun

t

Distribution phases of full and new moon at perigee, for the time range1973-present.

When the Earth, sun and moon all lie along a straight line (syzygy) gravity is enhanced.

The syzygy

numbers represent bias towards Earth perihelion and solstice in

Dec and Jan and when negative declination is at maximum.


Seasonal Cycles

Does the dependence between the main shock distribution curve and distance from the sun and moon indicate gravitational force which directly influences the deformation processes in the Earth’s crust?

Does the deviation peak in January relate to the sun’s-moon’s max gravity when the distance on winter solstice is at the minimum (perihelion) and bias in syzygy

numbers?

Does the dependence between the main shock distribution curve and declination indicate additional

magnetic behavior?

It has been established that geo-magnetic activity has annual variations that are greater at the equinoxes with increased activity in winter and decreased

in summer. This is thought to be due to the Earth’s magnetic dipole axis angle relative to the sun (declination).

Do magnetism and gravity act together to trigger earthquakes if critical stress increases sufficiently ?


Northern hemisphere -51% Soutern hemisphere -49%

020406080

100120140

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 -80 -90

Latitude deg

Cou

nt

a -

Spatial distribution of all (M≥6.8) main shocks after accumulation of 37 years shows basic tendency of occurrence

in the tectonic subduction

zones.

b -

Latitudinal distribution of all (M≥6.8) shows a trend of a balance in shocks numbers between the hemispheres. 376 main shocks (51%) occurred in the Northern hemisphere and 360 main shocks (49%) occurred in the Southern hemisphere.

The average rate for both hemisphere is 1.65 shocks pear month.

Antipodal Behavior


Antipodal Behavior

Antipodal Couples and Triplets

05

10152025303540

90 70 50 30 10 -20

-40

-60

-80

Latitude Deg

Cou

nt

Approximately 34% (250 from 736) M≥6.8 shocks occur as antipodal couples and triplets -

a shock in the northern hemisphere will be shortly followed by one with similar magnitude in close oppositional latitude of the southern hemisphere and vice versa.


Antipodal Behavior

The triggered antipodal shocks are correlated in time.

The data can be fit with an exponential decay (decay constant τ

=2.9. ), i.e

they follow the fundamental decay low.

This implies that the occurrence of antipodal are strongly associated with source time dependence and may provide evidence for a common source.

time between antipode coupels and triplets

05

101520253035404550

week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 week 7

Time

Cou

nt


Antipodal behavior - statistics

Both sets (north and south) were simultaneously fit with a common exponential decay, with time constant td=34.5.

The North/South correlation is strong (Pearson’s R=0.5960). The hemispheric counts are somewhat discrepant resulting in non-significant slope (slope=0.3998, P-

value = 0.0903). However, the slope indicates a weak trend (P<0.10).



Both North/South doublet/triplet counts are very similar and decay in the same manner. Both sets (north and south) were simultaneously fit with a common exponential decay, with time constant td=29.5. This decay constant is very similar to the decay constant of the latitudinal antipodal behavior.

The North/South correlation is very high (Pearson’s R=0.9282). The antipodal doublet/triplet counts are very similar in both hemispheres , resulting in highly significant slope of approximately one (slope=0.9611, P-

value = 0.000304).



The data are fitted with a single exponential decay, [y=A+exp(-t/td)] with decay constant td=2.9.


Antipodal Behavior

What is the physical mechanism that stands behind this balance? Does it relate to the fundamental mechanism of dynamic seismic energy balance ?

What force can trigger antipodal shocks on other ruptures over such long distances? Does it relate to widely-quoted studies that magmatic

or other fluid systems allows seismic energy to be transferred more efficiently to the antipode of the fault fluids?

Does this behavior imply that this pattern is associated with a magnetic system?

Disturbances in the magnetic field tend to occur antipodally

and with opposite polarity so as to restore the natural equilibrium of the magnetic field.


ii. Solar Activity Distribution

The asymmetric distribution of solar activity has been identified by its longitudinal east-west asymmetry which is understood to result from differential rotations and stroboscopic activity. Since the 19th century, solar activity has been recently

conceptualized as acting across constant, active longitude zones

that form in antipodal persistent belts according to Carrington's reference frame due to the polarity changes in the sun’s magnetic field.

In order to further explore these observations we investigate the distribution in space and time of the bipolar magnetic regions that grew over a few hours and developed into pores after hours or days (according to sunspot criteria) when the active region becomes evident.

These observations reflect the main magnetic fluxes by start times as indicated by bipolarity and magnetic region on the solar surface as it is first observed in the visible light range on the magnetogram. Data was taken from the SOHO/MIDI magnetogram

during 2006 in conjunction with evidence from other tracers and compared to other solar activity observations.

The total number of bipolarity fluxes was 170, with 88 fluxes assigned an active region number by NOAA.


East-west asymmetry

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

- 90 - 80 - 70 - 60 - 50 - 40 - 30 - 20 - 100 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Longitude (deg)

Cou

nt

The numbers of flux emergences first observed by location on the

sun from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2006 that displayed strong east-west asymmetry.

Longitude (–90) corresponds to eastern limb and longitude (+90) corresponds to western limb, longitude 0 corresponds to Earth-Sun line.


East-west asymmetry

Remarkable similarity ratio to our results shows results of 25 years of sunspot emergences which were first observed and recorded (Dalla

et al.)

with 6862 sunspots locations analyzed.The same indications have also been observed over 11 solar cycles (120 years)

(Benevolenskaya

et al,

Bumba

et al,

Berdyugina

et al.)

This was first reported on an east-west asymmetry (Maunder 1907). This scenario is assumed to be stable with the proportions remaining the same over long timescales,


As the sun rotates, the

spots first come into view near the east limb and similarly rotate out of view at the west limb.

The smaller regions can

only be detected initially through magnetic field measurements. SOHO/MDI magnetogram

images that determine the area of formation and also indicate the evolution phase (Solanki

et al,

S. Zharkov

and Thompson).

We note that

most

fluxes near the east limb are brought into view at the basic area and formation stage ratio(1:6.7).

The preponderance of “new”

fluxes on the Eastern limb could indicate an active longitude belt on the Eastern side thereby causing E-W asymmetry (Berdyugina

et al,

Usoskin

et al, 2005, 2007).

Initial and formation stage

Ratio of 1:6.7 brought in formation stage

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-90 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

East limb Weast limb

Cou

nt


Declining and disappearance stage

Sunspots generally grow for a few days, increasing linearly to their maximum size. Thereafter they begin their decay, steadily declining by main linear low with a decay rate of approximately 10 msh/day. This means an average lifetime across all visibility curves.

At any given time, when asymmetry or formation and evolution are

dominant, more spots will rotate out from view near the west limb.

The number of developed spots that rotate out from view will be greater than that on the east limb, with increased declining rate linearity.


Results of 25 years of spots disappearances; as recorded by Dalla

et al.

indicate more spots that rotate out from visibility near the west limb and close to zero decay rate on the eastern side.

This scenario is assumed to be stable with the proportions remaining the same over long timescales,

Declining and disappearance stage


Analysis of sunspot evolution has suggested that the east-west asymmetry may result from constant active longitude zones (M.Skiriello).

Recently

a new reference frame

has been suggested whereby the active longitude in fact appears to remain constant (Usoskin

et al

2005,2007

Berdyugina

et al) form in two antipodal

persistent belts

(Berdyugina

and Usoskin) and periodically alternate with their own dominant region

switching dominance between the ascending phase (AM), and the declining phase (DM), due to polarity changes in sun’s magnetic field

(Vernova

et al) with evidence of a constant (at list for time scale of 400 years) relic dipole magnetic field that influence the total dipole of solar dynamo (Mursula

et all, Bravo & Stewart).

Is it possible that constant East-West asymmetry exists only on one hemisphere?If constant

East-West asymmetry exists on the invisible hemisphere, then a higher

number of developed spots will brought into Earth view at any time, with increased in spots numbers and declining rate linearity.

At solar max –

due to polarity reversals –

new antipodal active belt alternates.

East-West asymmetry


The polar view of the hemisphere, according to a virtual observer located opposite the central meridian on the invisible hemisphere, would observe the developed sunspots on its “rising”

limb that rotate out from the Earth view, and the sunspots that rotate out from his view will be brought into Earth view.

At any given time , the virtual

observer on invisible hemisphere will observe a greater numbers of developed sunspots with increased declining rate on the east limb as

opposed to the west limb –

the opposite picture to that can be observed from Earth’s visibl

e hemisphere view.

Decay rate on the eastern side is close to zero which indicate that formation on the invisible hemisphere could not exist with the rates observed from Earth.

East-West asymmetry


Sunspot emergent times during 2006

0

5

10

15

20

25

0:00 1:45 3:15 4:45 6:25 8:00 9:45 11:15 12:45 14:25 16:00 17:35 19:15 20:45 22:25

UT times

Cou

nt

The number of flux emergences according to UT times as first observed in the visible light range on the magnetogram

for 2006. Data taken from a series of on average 96-minute intervals. Each hour corresponds to Earth-Sun line. The times distribution represent bias towards 00:00-

1:45 UT might indicate an asymmetry structure following a fractal with self-similarity structure.

The total number of bipolarity fluxes with time determined is 122 from 170. 15 were developed stage “rising”

(‘R. limb’), 31 center-to-limb observed by basic formation phase “formed stage”

(‘E. limb’), from them, 9 identified with escort flux emergence times and 11 “missing H data”. 88 fluxes assigned an active region number by NOAA from 10845 to 10933 active zone.See table on

http://www geo-map.org

East-West Asymmetry:Time-based Distribution



Viewed from Earth and from the Perspective of other Planets

Venus field of view for 2006

0

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30

35

180

-160

-140

-120

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

120

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Longitude (DEG)

Cou

nt

Mars field of view for 2006

0

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10

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35

180

-160

-140

-120

-100

-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

120

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180

Longitude (deg)

Cou

nt

Views from Venus and Mars for 2006 of pore distribution with respect to geocentric view, calculated by angular and sidereal location on the ecliptic planetary movement, Venus/Ma

rs observer field-of-view is 180 degrees of the visible hemisphere represented by longitude (–90) (corresponds to eastern limb) and longitude (+90) (corresponds to western limb). Longitude 0 corresponds to Venus/Mars-Sun line.

This indicates an apparent random spread of sunspot longitudinal

distribution, with no clear evidence of an east-west asymmetry as observed from Earth.

Can an east-west asymmetry be observed from other planets?

It appears that other planets will observe a different distribution because of different rates of orbital speed, angular and synodic cycle.


References: Solar Activity Distribution

Benevolenskaya,E.E, Hoeksema,J.T.,Kosovichev, A.G.,Scherrer, P.H., ApJ

517 (N2),L163-L166, (1999)Berdyugina, S.V., Usoskin, I.G. Astron. Astrophys. 405, 1121–1128, (2003)Berdyugina, S.V., Moss, D., Sokolo_, D.,Usoskin, I.G. A&A, 445, 703, (2006)Berdyugina, S.V., Moss, D., Sokoloff, D.D., Usoskin, I.G. Astron Astrophys. 445, 703–714, (2006)Bravo,S, G.A. Stewart: Astroph. J. 446, 431 (1995)Bumba, V., Garcia, A., Klvana, M. Solar Phys. 196, 403–419, (2000)Dalla

S., Fletcher L., and Walton N.A.: Astron. Astrophys, A&A 479. LI-L4 (2008)Gyori

L., Baranyi

T., TurmonM., and Pap J.M.,Adv. Space Res. 34, 269, (2004)Ivanov, E.V., Obridko, V.N., Ananyev, I.V. Solar Phys.199, 405–419, (2001)Mursula, K., Usoskin, I. G., & Kovaltsov, G. A. Sol. Phys., 198,51, (2001)Pelt, J., Brooke, J.M., Korpi, M., Tuominen, I. Astron. Astrophys. 460, 875–885, (2006)Skiriello, M. (2005), 23,3139-3147, (2005)Solanki

S.K, Sami K, Inhester, Bernd, Schussler, Manfred. Rep. Prog

Phys, 69, 563-668, (2006) Usoskin, I.G., Berdyugina, S.V., Poutanen, J. Preferred . Astron. Astrophys. 441, 347–352, (2005)Usoskin, I.G. Astron Astrophys. 445, 703–714, (2006)Usoskin, I.G., Berdyugina, S.V., Poutanen, J. Erratum: (1) ,(2): Astron, Astrophys. 464, 761, (2007)Vernova, E. S., Mursula, K., Tyasto, M. I., and Baranov, D. G.:, Sol. Phys., 221, 151–165, (2004)Zharkov,S. M.J. Thompson, arXiv0807, 3000Z, (2008)


Part i and ii are from a three-part series where part iii aims to combine and outline the following concepts:

• Seismic activity-electromagnetic emission -

reconnection and

flux transfer events

• Earth’s

D”

layer behavior due to

-‘common’

mode-

ionosphere/magnetosphere

• The gravitational effects

on the

deformation processes on Earth’s crust

• Seismic and magnetic energy balance

map.org-http://www geoSee results on



Ezra Mizrahi –

Lead Researcher, Geo-map [email protected]

Tel: +972 545-720566

Ronen Hazan

Susan Hazan - Coordinator Geo-map -

[email protected]

Dionyssios Mintzopoulos

Nissim Hazan

Moran Mizrahi

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

i. Distribution of Global Main Shocks: Seasonal and ...colin/research/EarthQukes/Workshop/Ezra_Mizrahi_J… · and time of (M≥6.8 ) global main shocks that occurred from 1973 to