Hurricane Ernesto - Projected Damage Area Landfall Expected In About 42 Hours

For Official Use Only!

Hurricane Ernesto - Projected Damage Area Landfall Expected In About 42 Hours

Hurricane Ernesto Projected Damage

Page 1 of 13 Sources: HURREVACLRL-DEBRIS

Generated By:Siemsen, LRL 0600 EDT 08/28/2006

Post Landfall Projected Damage Area

This model is based on a Category 1 storm making

landfall south of Miami, FL.

Information provided on this page displays a Category 1 storm making landfall south of Miami, FL. These projections are based on information from the NHC (0500 EDT 08/28/2006) forecast.

Details about this model may be obtained at https://englink.usace.army.mil or contact ENGLink at 1-877-936-4546


Hurricane Ernesto Debris Model



Information provided on this page displays a Category 1 storm making landfall south of Miami, FL. These projections are based on information from the NHC (0500 EDT 08/28/2006) forecast. The amount of debris forecasted is possible total volume, not necessarily the volume that may need to be removed with Federal funds.


Post Landfall Debris Model Results

Florida – 10,412,000 yd3

North Carolina – 672,000 yd3

South Carolina – 127,000 yd3

Model results per county on following page



Hurricane Ernesto Debris Model Landfall Expected In About 42 Hours


Hurricane Ernesto Debris Model Landfall Expected In About 42 Hours

The amount of debris forecasted is possible total volume, not necessarily the volume that may need to be removed with Federal funds.


Hurricane Ernesto Debris Model




Hurricane Ernesto Commodities ModelLandfall Expected In About 42 Hours

Hurricane Ernesto Commodities Model



Information provided on this page displays a Category 1 storm making landfall south of Miami, FL. These projections are based on information from the NHC (0500 EDT 08/28/2006) forecast. The amount of commodities forecasted is based on Mission Guide Book requirements (8 pounds of ice per person per day and 3 liters of water per person per day) and SME input. The graphic represents single day needs with full distribution system in place and operating. Details about this model may be obtained at https://englink.usace.army.mil

or contact ENGLink at 1-877-936-4546

Post Landfall Ice/Water Model Results

Day One/ Day Two/ Day ThreeFlorida – 50/100/150

North Carolina – 25/25/25South Carolina – 8/8/8





Hurricane Ernesto Commodities ModelLandfall Expected In About 42 Hours

Hurricane Ernesto Commodities Model



The amount of commodities forecasted is based on Mission Guide Book requirements (8 pounds of ice per person per day and 3 liters of water per person per day ) and SME input and the above table indicates suggested needs based on phased deployment of a commodities distribution system. The assumption in this scenario is that 30-40% of the resident population affected by Ernesto will have power outage in this area will cause a need for water. Details about this model may be obtained at https://englink.usace.army.mil



Hurricane Ernesto Population Model Landfall Expected In About 42 Hours

Hurricane Ernesto Population Model



Information provided on this page displays a Category 1 storm making landfall south of Miami, FL. These projections are based on information from the NHC (0500 EDT 08/28/2006) forecast. The number of persons included in this model output are those that would be included within estimated hurricane force winds (Census 2000 values adjusted to July 2005 values).

Details about this model may be obtained at https://englink.usace.army.mil


Post Landfall Population Model Results

Florida – 8,132,000 personsNorth Carolina – 492,000 personsSouth Carolina – 161,000 persons





Hurricane Ernesto Population Model Landfall Expected In About 42 Hours

The number of persons estimated to be within hurricane force winds comes from Census 2000 values adjusted to July 2005 values.


Hurricane Ernesto Population Model




Hurricane Ernesto Households Model Landfall Expected In About 42 Hours

Hurricane Ernesto Households Model



Post Landfall Households Model

Results

Florida – 3,168,000 householdsNorth Carolina – 193,000

householdsSouth Carolina – 70,000

households




Information provided on this page displays a Category 1 storm making landfall south of Miami, FL. These projections are based on information from the NHC (0500 EDT 08/28/2006) forecast. The number of households included in this model output are those that would be included within estimated hurricane force winds (Census 2000 values adjusted to July 2005 values).



Hurricane Ernesto Households Model Landfall Expected In About 42 Hours

The number of households estimated to be within hurricane force winds comes from Census 2000 values adjusted to July 2005 values.


Hurricane Ernesto Households Model




Hurricane Ernesto Temporary Roofing Model Results

Landfall Expected In About 42 Hours

Hurricane Ernesto Roofing Model



Information provided on this page displays a Category 1 storm making landfall south of Miami, FL. These projections are based on information from the NHC (0500 EDT 08/28/2006) forecast. The amount of temporary roofing that may be required is based on 2% of housing units damaged in CAT 1 wind areas. This only indicates possible need – not necessarily a mission to repair roofs.


Post Landfall Temporary Roofing

Model Results

Florida – 17,100 North Carolina – 1,700South Carolina – >400





Hurricane Ernesto Temporary Roofing Model Results


Hurricane Ernesto Roofing Model



THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL MODEL !! THE VALUES ARE PRELIMINARY AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED A GUIDE BUT NOT AN ABSOLUTE VALUE !!

The amount of temporary roofing that may be required is based on 2% of housing units damaged in CAT 1 wind areas, 4% of housing units damaged in CAT 2 wind areas and 8% of housing units damaged in CAT 3 wind areas. This only indicates possible need – not necessarily a mission to repair roofs.



Information provided on this page displays a Category 1 storm making landfall south of Miami, FL. These projections are based on information from the NHC (0500 EDT 08/28/2006) forecast. The amount of temporary housing that may be required is based on 1% of housing units requiring temporary replacement in CAT 1 wind areas.

Details about this model may be obtained at https://englink.usace.army.mil


Hurricane ErnestoTemporary Housing Model Results


Hurricane Ernesto Housing Model


Generated By:Siemsen, LR 0600 EDT 08/28/2006

Post Landfall Temporary Housing

Model Results

Florida – 2,800 North Carolina – 400

South Carolina – >400





Hurricane Ernesto Temporary Housing Model Results


THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL MODEL !! THE VALUES ARE PRELIMINARY AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED A GUIDE BUT NOT AN ABSOLUTE VALUE !!

The amount of temporary housing that may be required is based on 1% of housing units requiring replacement in CAT 1 wind areas.


Hurricane Ernesto Housing Model



Documents

Hurricane Ernesto - Projected Damage Area Landfall Expected In About 42 Hours