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Human factor, road-rail safety policies,
available technologies at level crossing.
Towards a model to evaluate LCs risk.
Emilio CosciottiMassimo Costa
Salvatore De Marco Luciana Iorio
Roma, 7 giugno 2013
2
Index
UNECE
System definition
Identification of critical scenarios and associated incidents
Calculation of the frequency of accidents for “Investments of pedestrian at LC”
Calculation of the expected damage of accidents
Conclusions
3
4
UNECE – United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
WP1_ UNECE Road Safety Forum The WP1 is the ONLY Permanent intergovernmental body in the UN dealing with Road Safety ; Open not only to the UNECE members
CONVENTIONS • Conventions on Road Traffic 1968• Convention on Road Signs and Signals, of 1968• European Agreement supplementing the 1968 Convention on Road Traffic
Road Traffic Safety Frame provides a set of international agreed road
traffic recommendations aimed at the improvement of the efficiency
and safety of international road traffic
UNECE
5
SAFE SYSTEM APPROACH
Road Safety Policies have- for the next decades- ambitious targets based on the well known VISION ZERO.
The principles of
SAFE SYSTEM APPROACH (SSA)
already merged in the EU Commission strategy will also be reflected in the UNECE Road Safety Legal instruments in a comprehensive sound approach involving all the exogenous and endogenous factors of safe mobility .
UNECE
6
LEVEL CROSSING
A unique dangerous moment: Interaction of road / railways, two completely different modes.
Fatalities & Road Users
Attitude and risk demeanor at LXing are now under study at WP1 in collaboration with UIC and ILCAD
EXPERT GROUP
UNECE
7
EDUCATE IN EDUCATE OUT
Risk Social acceptance thwarts most of the road safety and mobility policies, and it is the most difficult to be dealt with
It is very common to be inattentive ( for many reasons, goals, mobile phones, music- short term goals i.e. going to school and pick up children at school, could be prioritize to wise long term goal, i.e. stay alive, that is why people take short cuts).
UNECE
8
THE LXING/ROAD MOMENTUM
The WP1 expects to have its Expert Group on road Safety at Level Crossing stepping in soon to start dealing with a crucial cumbersome challenge
ruling the interaction of two modes and two infrastructures to save lives
by upgrading mobility options
identify and evaluate key factors leading to unsafe conditions at level crossings, by bridging several factors such as the infrastructure, legislation, user behaviour, management, focusing on risk perception to mould the awareness, education and modelling enforcement.
UNECE
9
ESTABLISHMENT OF A GROUP OF EXPERTS ON SAFETY AT LEVEL CROSSINGS
UNDER THE MANDATE OF THE UNECE Inland Transport Committee,
a GROUP OF EXPERT will act and rules addressing key issues related to enhancing safety at level crossings
SOUGHT AFTER CROSS ACTION AMONG THE UNECE WP’s -Working Party on Road Traffic Safety (WP.1), the Working Party on Road Transport (SC.1) and the Working Party on Rail Transport (SC.2), bodies such as the European Railway Agency, in generalsafety specialists from the road and rail sectors so as to better understand the issues at this intermodal interface ( in accordance with ToR expertise of l UNECE member States, the European Union, Academia and the private sector
ECE/TRANS /WP.1 /2011/6
UNECE
10
The functions and elements of the system interact each other according to 3 types of installations considered: automatic LC with full barriers half-barriers automatic LC automatic LC with light signals and bells on the road side & St
Andrew’s cross
Road side protection and road side signals are operated by the following operation mode: passing train (automatic LCs) train control center (automatic LCs) users (private LCs) railway operator (manual LCs) other (without barriers LCs)
System definition
11
The system is also characterized by some boundary conditions: number of train per day number of tracks in the LC area maximum speed of the line average LC closure time per train road vehicles traffic pedestrian traffic influenced by the location of the LC in a urban
area or not road side visibility of the warning signs and of the signals railway side visibility of the LC area or road-side visibility of the
incoming train from the LC area
In some conditions aid equipment (e.g. CCTV) to the protection of the LC is required: crossing with barriers at a considerable distance intense heavy road traffic difficult and tortuous road layout obstructions on the normal road vehicle flow, due to crossings or
other things
System definition
12
The critical scenarios considered after some on site investigations are: investments of pedestrians at LC collision of a train with a vehicle trapped inside a LC with full-
barriers collision of a train with a vehicle dodging at a LC with half-
barriers
Identification of critical scenarios and associated incidents
Critical scenario
Frequency (accident/
period)
Damage (euro/
accident)
Risk of a LCDirect cause
Road vehicle in the railway area
Collision of a train with a
vehicle trapped inside a LC with full-
barriers
First event or incident
LC (unauthorised crossing/barriers striking by
road vehicles)
LC (unauthorised crossing by pedestrian or cyclists)
suicide
attempted suicide
person in the railway site/not at safety distance
Investments of pedestrian
at LC
Road user mistakes
Road user infringem
ents
Road user infringem
ents
Frequency (accident/
period)
Damage (euro/
accident)
unauthorised crossing of track by pedestrian
The incidents are identified by the Italian Railway Infrastructure Manager (RFI Spa) in its Safety Database (BDS)
Reference period of this study:July 2010 - August 2011
13
776655443322110 xxxxxxxy
railway side
visibility
railway side
visibility
Linear regression model for the estimation of the number of accidents y for a generic LC during a period equivalent to the one related to the study ( 1st attempt):
Calculation of the frequency of accidents for “Investments of pedestrian at LC”
urban/non urban areaurban/non
urban area
railway traffic
railway traffic
single/double track
single/double track
total faults/incidents
total faults/incidents
max speed of the railway line
max speed of the railway line
avg LC closure time
avg LC closure time
Coefficient Value t-Student
0
1 0.305 1.405
2 0.366 1.218
3 0.003 0.477
4 0.005 1.549
5 -0.334 -0.977
6 -0.051 -0.483
7 0.124 0.669
N. observations 23 2 0.878 F 16.465
Inv t 1.026
14
776655443322110 xxxxxxxy
railway side
visibility
railway side
visibility
Linear regression model for the estimation of the number of accidents y for a generic LC during a period equivalent to the one related to the study (1st attempt):
Calculation of the frequency of accidents for “Investments of pedestrian at LC”
urban/non urban areaurban/non
urban area
railway traffic
railway traffic
single/double track
single/double track
total faults/incidents
total faults/incidents
max speed of the railway line
max speed of the railway line
avg LC closure time
avg LC closure time
Coefficient Value t-Student
0
1 0.305 1.405
2 0.366 1.218
3 0.003 0.477
4 0.005 1.549
5 -0.334 -0.977
6 -0.051 -0.483
7 0.124 0.669
N. observations 23 2 0.878 F 16.465
Inv t 1.026
not useful
variables
not useful
variables
15
3322110 xxxy
railway side
visibility
railway side
visibility
Linear regression model for the estimation of the number of accidents y [n. accidents/period] (final attempt):
Calculation of the frequency of accidents for “Investments of pedestrian at LC”
urban/non urban areaurban/non
urban areamax speed of
the railway line [km/h]
max speed of the railway line
[km/h]
Coefficient Value t-Student
0
1 0.255 1.306
2 0.331 1.222
3 0.004 2.410
N. observations 23 2 0.868 F 43.710
Inv t 1.020
16
It is possible to calculate the damage per event [€/event], considering: number of fatalities multiplied for the Value of Preventing a
Casualty VPC (€ 1.500.000 in Italy) 10 serious injuries = 1 fatality 200 minor injuries = 1 fatality cost of environmental damage cost of material damage to rolling stock or infrastructure cost of the delays due to accidents (not available from the
databases)
It is possible to calculate the technological risk of the event:
R [€/period] = F [events/period] x D [€/event]
Calculation of the expected damage of accidents
17
The database was used to search a linear regression model for the prevision of number of accidents in a reference time period with regard to a collision of a train with a vehicle trapped inside a LC with full-barriers
The available database did not allow to obtain results, due to a low number of events in the period considered
The database will be extended in order to check the usability of such a type of model for this critical scenario and for the scenario of a road vehicle dodging at a LC with half barriers
Conclusions